Agent Zero Is Back!!!

[Mamba Venom]

MVB

Most valuable blogger

[doclinkin]

Patterns is wrong, here, at least to some extent.

FG% is a valuable measure for evaluating people in some ways. Given the volume of 3s he took, the "efficiency" of his shooting is relative; this is the Iverson argument, only with 3s AND FTAs instead of just FTAs. High-volume, low-raw FG% chuckery is still a problem, especially when the 3P% isn't spectacular.

Look at it this way; in 06-07, he had 32 games where he played 30+ minutes and shot under 40%. He had 21 games over 48%. He was a streaky guy; when he was on, he could shoot you out of a hole, but when he wasn't, he'd put you into one.

In those 32 games, he MISSED an average of 14.2 shots a game while taking an average of 20.4.

Regardless of whether he hit his threes or not (he shot 23.2% from downtown in those games on about 7.7 3PA/g), he was still missing left, right and center. Not all of those misses were rebounded by the Wizards.

When you're primarily a perimeter shooter, raw FG% matters. Arenas drives, and he draws fouls (and because he's played mostly from 04-05 forward, he's drawn fouls very well for a wing), but it would be a mistake to only look at eFG% and TS% to evaluate his efficiency.

BULK FG-missed still represent a problem.

Eh. Except you blithely skate over the issue of Free Throws.

Fact is Gilbert doesn't simply draw fouls well for a wing player, he draws fouls remarkably well for any player, whatever size. Gilbert consistently ranks in the top ten of all players in Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes (pace adjusted). Healthy or not.

This is a significant portion of his game, and is a method by which a player on offense can play defense as well by softening up opposing frontline Bigs for late game situations. Opposing Bigs get subbed out in late-game situations when they have been dinged with foul trouble. Opposing Wing scorers get switched onto easier match-ups on defense. Gilbert tends to riccochet off the big bodies in the lane, the hand-check issues are a small part of the equation, the clear path and 2.9 second tango under the cylinder are even more important.

Staring myopically at his raw FG% doesn't reflect on how rock-steady that FTA number is. Essentially Gilbert's three point shooting set up his higher percentage shot: the stand-still unguardable fifteen foot round the back three times flatfoot set shot-- that is: the free throw. There's a reason why the Wizards under Eddie Jordan were consistently ranking among the league-best in Free Throw Attempts per game. The system created mismatches on the perimeter and clear lanes to attack, specifically for a guy like Gilbert. The threat that he might catch hot from outside meant opponents were forced to guard him tight, as far out as 30 feet from the basket. The threat that he might drive forced opponents to sag off of proficient shooters Jamsion and Butler. Notice the 3pt percentage of Caron Butler taking a significant bounce after entering the Wiz system.

I showed you the stat before from the Free Darko collective's remarkable book (The Macrophenomenal Guide to Basketball), the chart illustrating Gilbert's "zone of no conscience", where his three point shooting percentage actually increased the further from the basket he was. Scouts quoted in Sports Illustrated said he was effectively the toughest player to guard in the NBA -- most disruptive overall to opponent defensive schemes -- since you had to pick him up so far out and stick him, and he was too quick to stick with out there.

Ask nate33 of the player comparisons board to drag out his player pairs regressions showing Gilbert's eFG% effect on his teammates. Hell -- ask DeShawn Stevenson who shot 19% in the playoffs after Gil first got injured, when he'd shot a raw 50% from the field playing next to Gil. Shoot, check 82games' +/- stats clearly showing that Gilbert has been more valuable to his team's offensive success than any other player on the squad. He shot alot because his squad needed him to do so. The offensive spacing was predicated on his particular skillset.

You can feel free to quibble and nitpick, but by sticking doggedly to that raw FG% stat you're only betraying your confirmation bias, not an astute grasp of statistical analysis. The Wizards under EJ were consistently among the leagues' top offenses, with Gilbert the +/- leader. That would tend to suggest something fairly obvious, axiomatic-- bluntly-- pretty basic to the non-stupid: Gilbert shooting a bunch doesn't hurt the team's offense, because scoring was never a problem.

Now you might be right if you had tried to make the point that low percentage raw FG% numbers forces frontcourt players to commit heavily to the offensive rebound, and long rebounds might seduce rearline players to try for second chance points -- all of which ruins court balance for transition defense. But you didn't even try to make that point so nope, you get no lollipop.

That said. If you take a look at Flip's track record with heavy usage point guards, they tend to get more efficient entering his system. Players like Chauncey, Steph, Sam Cassell put up career years in most categories of PG efficiency. And the defensive scheme tends to allow top third defense even squads with heavy doses of Wally Szerbiak and Fred Hoiberg.

I'm perfectly happy reading the squawking of nono-birds about Gilbert's chances of success. Especially given his propensity for using doubts to drive him. Go ahead, doubt the willpower and ability of the most obsessively driven PG in the league. BY all means, talk about how he's unable to defend, distribute, etc. Spread the common wisdom that he's unable to actually score. Health is the only question mark, that's up to divine powers to sort out, but if the cat is healthy --well, suffice to say I don't suspect their own backcourt scoring is gonna be the roadblock for the success of this year's Wiz.

[Hyral]

My god, doclinkin, that was the best post i've seen on the general board in a long time.

Anyway, as someone who goes to school in DC i'm excited for Arenas' return to the court. Wizards should have the mentality that they can win every game and they will do just fine.

[INKtastic]

most exciting player in the league....

No...

Somebody get this whippersnapper a highlight reel.

kthxbye.

you mean like these?







I went back 2 years, that was about all I could find...

[montestewart]

^^^ Great post doclinkin. It's the whole package: drawing fouls and converting, dangerous from deep, opening up space all over the floor to aloow other scorers to flourish.

Some characterize Arenas as a ball hogging chucker, but how then do the Wizards always seem to have two other players scoring at or near 20ppg? It may have been a different system/style, but most Wizards followers know that the efficiency of the Arenas-led offense has never really been a major issue.

[montestewart]

[FG% does not represent any kind of consistency. It's a measure of a player's overall field goal percentage. It indicates as much consistency as eFG% and TS%.

If FG% indicates consistency, someone that shoots 13-16 and 3-16 in successive games has indicated greater consistency than someone that shoots 7-16 and 7-16 in successive games. I agree that FG% can be a useful measure (particularly when tracking rebounds and other after shot results), but points per possession and the other measures are being too casually dismissed.

FG% does NOT indicate consistency. A player can shoot 10/13 one night and then 4/15 the next night. His FG% would be 50% overall. Tell me, how does that measure consistency?

Once again, FG% indicates as much consistency as TS% and eFG%.

Sorry if that was unclear. The bolded was a rhetorical statement, and I was basically agreeing with you.

[hourockman]

Nuggets vs Wizards, 2010 Finals. Kenyon, Gilbert, and Antawn have decreed it.

[Gremz]

I wish Gilbert and the Wizards a healthy season.

[doclinkin]

Nuggets vs Wizards, 2010 Finals. Kenyon, Gilbert, and Antawn have decreed it.

That would be a great series. But no, Gilbert said that the team was a 19 win team and had no business talking about the postseason or saying anything until they proved it on court. Gilbert said he thought they're probably a little too small overall to contend against ultrabig teams like the Cavs, who keep swelling up like Barry Bonds melon. Maybe not the most politic thing to say, but I think most folks out here in internetland would agree with him that the Wiz would be a serious underdog in the betting line against most of the elite teams. Just facts.

'Tawn said (even unhealthy) they compete against anybody (in the regular season) so with everyone healthy he thinks they can contend with anybody, and at this point in his career that's the goal. Win it all. Not bad sentiments coming from your team captain. Contend, he said, not a guarantee or a prediction. Seems to me the right thing to do to aim high.

But yeah teh Nuggs vs teh Wizzers would be sweet action.

[dlts20]

Nuggets vs Wizards, 2010 Finals. Kenyon, Gilbert, and Antawn have decreed it.

That would be a great series. But no, Gilbert said that the team was a 19 win team and had no business talking about the postseason or saying anything until they proved it on court. Gilbert said he thought they're probably a little too small overall to contend against ultrabig teams like the Cavs, who keep swelling up like Barry Bonds melon. Maybe not the most politic thing to say, but I think most folks out here in internetland would agree with him that the Wiz would be a serious underdog in the betting line against most of the elite teams. Just facts.

'Tawn said (even unhealthy) they compete against anybody (in the regular season) so with everyone healthy he thinks they can contend with anybody, and at this point in his career that's the goal. Win it all. Not bad sentiments coming from your team captain. Contend, he said, not a guarantee or a prediction. Seems to me the right thing to do to aim high.

But yeah teh Nuggs vs teh Wizzers would be sweet action.

Still, I actually dont listen to Gil when it comes to things like that. He says stuff then will change in the very next second. I dont beleive we have to make a trade to beat those teams. Gil dogs everyone all the time then he switches up. He talked down about DS and now he said that he should be our starter. He talked about our young guys not doing anything but now he says that they will be beast with him. Those teams are not truly better then us up front if you ask me. I love our frontcourt of Wood, AJ, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto, espicaly when you add Gil to them. He will make all those guys alot better and alot of our D struggles were due to EJ being a horrible coach

[tsherkin]

Eh. Except you blithely skate over the issue of Free Throws.

No, I didn't touch on it because I was addressing a specific issue, the notion that TS% and eFG% don't tell you everything you need to know about the player's scoring efficiency. Gil draws FTAs very well, and you have to sort of iron out the favorable rules change because it's the era in which he plays, but those bulk missed shots are still a significant factor in his game.

You can feel free to quibble and nitpick, but by sticking doggedly to that raw FG% stat you're only betraying your confirmation bias, not an astute grasp of statistical analysis.

I don't stick to it, and never said that I did. All I was doing was responding to the idea that TS% and eFG% are accurate representations of his efficiency, FTAs or not. It doesn't suddenly mean he's stunning INEFFICIENT, it is just a means by which to add to the analysis of his game, so calm down.

That said. If you take a look at Flip's track record with heavy usage point guards, they tend to get more efficient entering his system. Players like Chauncey, Steph, Sam Cassell put up career years in most categories of PG efficiency. And the defensive scheme tends to allow top third defense even squads with heavy doses of Wally Szerbiak and Fred Hoiberg.

And on that account, I'm intrigued by what might happen to Gilbert, especially given the rumblings about him shooting less and passing more.

Remember, I said "FG% is valuable for evaluating people in some ways." I am fully aware that it's not the gospel where efficiency is concerned, and I'm completely aware that Arenas' 3pt shooting and DrawF both iron things out for him in terms of efficiency, but it is ALSO true that those two things mask the basic fact that he misses a lot of shots and isn't a superb 3pt shooter, just a solid one (at least at the volume at which he takes those shots, anyhow).

You need to take my points in context, and not as a direct assault on Arenas' overall credibility. I know that I don't like Arenas' style of play (I hate it, actually), but there is certainly truth to the idea that he can score efficiently and that he help teammates. And ITO FG% vs. shot volume, he's not far far different from, say, the Kobe we saw in 04-05. Kobe rocked a TS% just over 56% that year, too. He averaged a crap-load of FTAs because of the new rules, shot under 44% FG, chucked up 6 3s a game at an unimpressive percentage and boom, there you go, a season nearly identical to what we saw regularly from a healthy Arenas.

Now, in an effort not to be a crusty curmudgeon, I've been trying to accept that guards have it way easier in the post 03-04 era because of the way things are called on the wing, so a direct comparison of Arenas to Kobe that season is meaningful; Arenas now has three seasons where he compares favorably to Kobe that year, in one of Bryant's finest seasons (27/6/6 from Kobe).

And truth be told, if you look at the two of them under the arc over their respective careers, Kobe shoots 48.2% and Arenas 46.2%. Kobe's noticeably better, but the point isn't to denigrate Arenas; rather it's to show that he's relatively close to a top-tier, elite scorer like Kobe.

And truth be told, if you look at those games I cited, the vast majority of them came about primarily because he was chucking threes and missing most or all of them. Arenas has godawful shot selection where the 3pt shot is concerned. If that changes, he has the tools to be one of the best scorers we've ever seen (he's already technically one of the best scorers in the league).

I recognize that, but what you aren't recognizing is that his 3pt chuckery is a problem. His defense, too, but mostly in the sense that he doesn't do anything special to help, not that he's a huge liability or anything, but it remains true that Washington has been 19th, 22nd and 28th on D with Arenas; he doesn't make them significantly better on that end. But I digress.

It's true that the Wizards have ranked well on offense with a healthy Arenas. In fact, 10th, 6th and 3rd, with the latter being the most accurate because it includes Butler and they were mostly healthy. That figures to happen again this season, given a comparatively healthy team. They're good on offense.

BUT, and you seem to think I skipped over this because I didn't say it directly, but the entire point of discussing volume of missed FGA was to point out the damaging nature of putting a shot up for a potential offensive/defensive board. If he's MISSING 14 shots a game, then the Wizards are going to get maybe 6 or 7 of them, and will convert 3 of those or so (IIRC, but possibly more).

That still leaves 7 or 8 shots that they have given back to the other team... frequently as long boards, as you mentioned. In any case, bulk missed FGAs take away from the value of average efficiency. I have not seen a measurement for that impact, but you are absolutely NOT accounting for it by looking strictly at TS% and eFG%. eFG% is a terrible stat, IMO; TS% is a nice conglomeration of shooting efficiency and the added value of a 3 or a FTA, so it's useful, but when you take a guy like Arenas who goes to extremes so frequently, you cannot simply look at average efficiency.

And this is all ignoring turnovers and offensive fouls, right? Arenas isn't an especially turnover-prone player, especially given his usage rate, but that's something else that's technically not being considered here. But moving past that, have a look at 06-07 Arenas.

His average TS% was certainly 56.5%, but does that tell the tale? If you ignore the Charlotte game where he didn't start, then his median is 56.8%, which was above the league average of 54.1% by a noticeable margin. Stratified, it looks like this:

28 games at 60%+
12 games from 56-59.1%
7 games at 50.7 - 54.3%
16 games at 40.9 to 48.8%
10 games at 39.2% or less (3 below 30%)

So all told, that's 32 games below league average (31, if you don't quibble over the 54.0 versus the 54.1) and 41 (or 42) over league average.

You can see, though, that he didn't really tend to fall near the average; he tended to be either stunningly hot or so awful it made you cringe, there really wasn't a lot of middle ground with him, nor did he frequently adapt his game depending on what kind of shooting night he was having (though to be fair, does Kobe?).

Think about that:

28 games at stunning efficiency (23-5 record, 21.6 FGA/g, 8.2 3PA/g, 6.5 APG, 3.2 TPG)
19 games at marginal to well above average efficiency (10-9, 21.4 FGA/g, 8.3 3PA/g, 5.8 APG, 3.1 TPG)
26 games at miserable inefficiency (6-20, 20.6 FGA/g, 7.5 3PA/g, 5.8 APG, 3.4 TPG)

Just to add something else onto that:

28 games with 10.1 FG Missed; 11.4 FTA/g; 4.3 3P missed; 3.9 3PM/g
19 games with 12.6 FG Missed; 10.1 FTA/g; 5.4 3P missed; 2.9 3PM/g
26 games with 14.5 FG Missed; 8 FTA/g; 6.0 3P missed; 1.5 3PM/g

12.3 FG Missed Per Game
5.2 3P Missed Per Game
2.8 3PM Per Game

Yeah, it's nice that basically for every night he was terrible, he was awesome, but that spread is not a positive thing for him. You're basically getting two Gilberts; utterly unguardable, or spectacularly useless... which gets back to what I was saying before, that it's bad for the team, something that the record bears out. And as you see, there isn't a really significant difference in the volume of shooting, either, but a noticeably larger difference in the number of shots he was missing.

He played a 74th game, but as I mentioned, he didn't start, nor did he take a shot, so I didn't bother to include it.

This is a closer look at Arenas; he's found at either end of the extreme, and that's a problem. See the three-point shooting? 8 3s a game is a stupid idea if you're not a catch-and-shoot player and can't hit those shots the way Ray-Ray did back in his day. If Arenas were to work off-ball more, his percentage would almost assuredly rise, even at that volume, but he takes a large volume of really dumb 3s, and that's a bad thing.

To bring that home, it's something that TS% and eFG% don't account for, which was my point in the first place.

[DraftBoy10]

There's hardly a way the Wizards are contedors this year, there's a remote chance that they become anything significant, either. Playoffs? Maybe, maybe not. Too much up in the air; injuries, new system, new players.

It's fun seeing these fans gather false hope though, this was like just like me 2 years ago with the Rockets, being a fan of their's, you understand how to categorize false hope and reality. This is just false hope. I wish Gilbert the best, and I still think he can be a legit 25/5 player, but there's absolutely no way they become a contending force, they simply aren't better than Cleveland or Boston.

[tsherkin]

There's hardly a way the Wizards are contedors this year, there's a remote chance that they become anything significant, either. Playoffs? Maybe, maybe not. Too much up in the air; injuries, new system, new players.

See this, this is too far. If the Wizards are healthy, Washington's offense alone will guarantee that they're a top 5 or 6 team, and that's not even counting Foye and Miller or any kind of advancement from the rooks or any kind of positive coaching from Flip.

They'll make the playoffs provided that Arenas is healthy; there aren't 8 teams significantly better than a healthy 'zards squad.

Will they contend? God no, they're still going to be fairly bad defensively, they haven't added any key pieces defensively to a team that's been consistently awful on that end of the floor. Better than last year, for sure, because Haywood is a great defender, but still not very good overall.

[DaRealHibachi]

Somebody get this whippersnapper a highlight reel.

kthxbye.

you mean like these?







I went back 2 years, that was about all I could find...

And this dude is a mod...

The Wizards/Arenas hate has reached an all-time low here... Can't wait for this season to start...

[kirbs]

I was watching the latest videos of Arenas practicing, and he's looking quite skinny (he has no shirt on). I remember him being noticeably more muscular. I'd bet he's lost at least 10 pounds. I guess he doesn't depend on size/strength, but I'm still not sure if being so light is going to be good.

[doclinkin]

"chucker"

Then a lot of fancy footwork trying to backpedal away from the opinion.

what you aren't recognizing is that his 3pt chuckery is a problem.

Recognizing? I'm saying it's not a problem. I'm saying his outside-in attack is by design of the offense he was playing in, not self-serving 'chuckery' that hurt the team's offensive flow. I'm saying take a look at Jamison's three point shooting volume before and after joining the Wiz; take a look at Caron's three point attempts. Notice the uptick in outside shots.

Then reflect on the Wizards offensive output, consistently top 3 in the league under Eddie Jordan, despite no low-post dominant threat.

I'm saying Gilbert's shooting, even from three, helped the squad significantly, not hurt the team as you suggest. The distance threat opens lanes for the interior attack of other players and for Gilbert as well. The team's overall offensive efficiency was never a problem.

Evidence is overwhelmingly on my side:

You have:
-- Raw FG% and a few vague assertions buried in a wordstorm of bloviating, with no analysis beyond saying: Gilbert compares to Kobe but he's a chucker and I don't like him.
-- A bit of whingeing and fussing that we're not in an 80's-mode force basketball era tilted towards the play of the Low Post Load. While grudgingly admitting the world has moved on and you can't live in the past.
-- The assertion that he's not a good three point shooter.
.......................

I got:
-- Plus/Minus stats showing overwhelmingly the team is offensively far better with a healthy Gil on court.
-- player pairs regressions relating to teammates eFG% showing that he made his team better on offense.
-- A top 3 offensive efficiency every year he was healthy.
-- Two (~)20 point per game scorers running next to him (zero complaints from them about Gil hogging the ball, both giving him and the coach and the system credit for making their career first All-Star games -- and their non-dominance in those all-star games suggesting that the achievement is in part a function of the system and teammates they play with)
-- Stats showing that Gilbert was 20 of 46 outside 28 feet, shooting a remarkable .436 three point percentage from inhumanly range. 141 of 354 outside 25 feet (28-38 feet inclusive) shooting an excellent .398 three point perspective from merely ridiculous range.
.....................


I'm thinking: 'win = me' on that one. Or more precisely 'win = Gil' I'm not sure how much more offensively efficient you expect the squad to be, really. Especially considering his teammates included offensive liabilities like Jared Jeffries, Mike Ruffin, and your boy Kwame Brown, the KFB himself.

Fact is you get near to the point when you suggest his defense isn't great. Though you miss the mark here as well. Stating that he didn't do anything especial to help. Not true, actually behind Jason Kidd Gilbert has consistently been the second best rebounding PG, and his steal rate is consistently strong.

The problem being that second-line rebounding and gambling for steals make for a pretty lousy defensive system, but in part it's Gilbert's fault and in part that's what the Coach was asking for. Eddie Jordan made his bones as 'Fast Eddie' Jordan, leading the league in steals. He liked the free offensive chance you get from a steal, figuring if you get the possession before the shot well that amounts to a .000 eFG% for the opponent. Problem is when you miss they get a wide open shot. High steal totals froma team tend to correlate to a negative in terms of team wins. (Though high steal totals by an individual tend to correlate to a positive, Go figure).

And as far as rearline rebounding is concerned, while it's evidence of a necessary all-court hustle mentality (necessary because of an overall lack of size/quicks at most starting positions) it ruins your court balance at either end, allowing for wide open perimeter shots for instance when you double down in the lane to 'help out' your Bigs. It also leaves you liable for Crash Wallace to land on your knee and blow out your season.

But flaws in the system or not, where Gilbert has been reasonably at fault has been his defensive focus. He tends to spend the defensive possessions ball-watching, waiting for the next offensive chance. Thus the emphasis on all-court rebounding (outside of your area) and gambling for steals tended to play into his predilections, true, but he also would lose track of his man and give occasionally indifferent effort on that end of the court, conserving his energy for the offensive end, where --he said rightly-- if he wasn't scoring, the rest of the team tended to fall apart and fail.

If you notice, every year the team started out with a great deal of verve and hustle at the defensive end, with a matching ineptitude on offense, at least until Gilbert picked up his scoring. Fact is, in part, he was right. The team won most when they could simply outscore the opponents, rather than stop them at the other end. With tweeners at 3 of 5 starting positions (or more) they didn't have positive mismatches defensively, had to rely on their torrid scoring ability. Hence the upsy-downsy nature of the team and record.

But the lack of focus by design or inclination does not betray an inability. If you listened to Koach K tell it, Gilbert's squad in USA camp was a defensive terror because he committed to the role asked of him: give defensive pressure and hit three point shots. That's it. Teams couldn't get the ball over the timeline. Lost it to the constant pestering. If Gil ultimately didn't find a role with the team, and found frustration since he had altered his game to fit what was asked of him but wasn't rewarded with a roster slot, well okay. But hey no slouch to be beaten out by DWade, Kobe and the like at the scoring guard position. Pretty good company.

Which brings us back to the central point. Gilbert at his best compares favorably to the elite players in the league. If he's a tier lower, okay, acceptable -- he's not the highest flier, tallest, no God of Superior Genetics like LBJ. He's a little guy, 6'3" barefoot, doing his damnedest to prove he simply fits in the league.

Hell he plays best as the underdog with something to prove anyway. He's an overachiever who earns any accolades not merely because of an ebullient personality and a collection of quirks, but because he is one of the most compellingly obsessively driven individuals in the league. A player about whom his new coach says he's 'never seen' a player who works as hard and thinks as much about the game 24/7. And this coming from the guy who coached Kevin Garnett for a decade or so.

You admit, you hate his game. Okay. Points awarded I suppose for honesty. Few 'haters' claim the label. Often they try to hide behind a cloud of obfuscating stats and justify their dislike with a pose of objectivity. They don't like the 'act' as they perceive it (third hand via media reports) adn would like a defensible reason for the feeling.

But any would-be analyst shoots themself in the reputation if they stake their claim on the idea that Gilbert somehow hurts his team on the offensive end. The facts simply do not line up on that side, and, I think most would agree, to stick to that tactic would tend to suggest to readers that the author of that opinion is quite likely a mouthbreathing pantload. Just saying.

So don't talk bad about my friend Gilbert because it hurts my feelings, and makes me want to be really mean back to you. Stop being a meanie or I will shake my fist and then tell on you.

[doclinkin]

I will now go back to the Wizards board and play with my friends. Yay! Recess!

[sefant77]

He should talk less and play more. And specially dont talk much after 2 years without playing.

But hey, he is one of the biggest attention whores...

[L3M0NAD3]

He should talk less and play more. And specially dont talk much after 2 years without playing.

But hey, he is one of the biggest attention whores...

Key word in that statement, attention whore.

[miller31time]

"chucker"

Then a lot of fancy footwork trying to backpedal away from the opinion.

what you aren't recognizing is that his 3pt chuckery is a problem.

Recognizing? I'm saying it's not a problem. I'm saying his outside-in attack is by design of the offense he was playing in, not self-serving 'chuckery' that hurt the team's offensive flow. I'm saying take a look at Jamison's three point shooting volume before and after joining the Wiz; take a look at Caron's three point attempts. Notice the uptick in outside shots.

Then reflect on the Wizards offensive output, consistently top 3 in the league under Eddie Jordan, despite no low-post dominant threat.

I'm saying Gilbert's shooting, even from three, helped the squad significantly, not hurt the team as you suggest. The distance threat opens lanes for the interior attack of other players and for Gilbert as well. The team's overall offensive efficiency was never a problem.

Evidence is overwhelmingly on my side:

You have:
-- Raw FG% and a few vague assertions buried in a wordstorm of bloviating, with no analysis beyond saying: Gilbert compares to Kobe but he's a chucker and I don't like him.
-- A bit of whingeing and fussing that we're not in an 80's-mode force basketball era tilted towards the play of the Low Post Load. While grudgingly admitting the world has moved on and you can't live in the past.
-- The assertion that he's not a good three point shooter.
.......................

I got:
-- Plus/Minus stats showing overwhelmingly the team is offensively far better with a healthy Gil on court.
-- player pairs regressions relating to teammates eFG% showing that he made his team better on offense.
-- A top 3 offensive efficiency every year he was healthy.
-- Two (~)20 point per game scorers running next to him (zero complaints from them about Gil hogging the ball, both giving him and the coach and the system credit for making their career first All-Star games -- and their non-dominance in those all-star games suggesting that the achievement is in part a function of the system and teammates they play with)
-- Stats showing that Gilbert was 20 of 46 outside 28 feet, shooting a remarkable .436 three point percentage from inhumanly range. 141 of 354 outside 25 feet (28-38 feet inclusive) shooting an excellent .398 three point perspective from merely ridiculous range.
.....................


I'm thinking: 'win = me' on that one. Or more precisely 'win = Gil' I'm not sure how much more offensively efficient you expect the squad to be, really. Especially considering his teammates included offensive liabilities like Jared Jeffries, Mike Ruffin, and your boy Kwame Brown, the KFB himself.

Fact is you get near to the point when you suggest his defense isn't great. Though you miss the mark here as well. Stating that he didn't do anything especial to help. Not true, actually behind Jason Kidd Gilbert has consistently been the second best rebounding PG, and his steal rate is consistently strong.

The problem being that second-line rebounding and gambling for steals make for a pretty lousy defensive system, but in part it's Gilbert's fault and in part that's what the Coach was asking for. Eddie Jordan made his bones as 'Fast Eddie' Jordan, leading the league in steals. He liked the free offensive chance you get from a steal, figuring if you get the possession before the shot well that amounts to a .000 eFG% for the opponent. Problem is when you miss they get a wide open shot. High steal totals froma team tend to correlate to a negative in terms of team wins. (Though high steal totals by an individual tend to correlate to a positive, Go figure).

And as far as rearline rebounding is concerned, while it's evidence of a necessary all-court hustle mentality (necessary because of an overall lack of size/quicks at most starting positions) it ruins your court balance at either end, allowing for wide open perimeter shots for instance when you double down in the lane to 'help out' your Bigs. It also leaves you liable for Crash Wallace to land on your knee and blow out your season.

But flaws in the system or not, where Gilbert has been reasonably at fault has been his defensive focus. He tends to spend the defensive possessions ball-watching, waiting for the next offensive chance. Thus the emphasis on all-court rebounding (outside of your area) and gambling for steals tended to play into his predilections, true, but he also would lose track of his man and give occasionally indifferent effort on that end of the court, conserving his energy for the offensive end, where --he said rightly-- if he wasn't scoring, the rest of the team tended to fall apart and fail.

If you notice, every year the team started out with a great deal of verve and hustle at the defensive end, with a matching ineptitude on offense, at least until Gilbert picked up his scoring. Fact is, in part, he was right. The team won most when they could simply outscore the opponents, rather than stop them at the other end. With tweeners at 3 of 5 starting positions (or more) they didn't have positive mismatches defensively, had to rely on their torrid scoring ability. Hence the upsy-downsy nature of the team and record.

But the lack of focus by design or inclination does not betray an inability. If you listened to Koach K tell it, Gilbert's squad in USA camp was a defensive terror because he committed to the role asked of him: give defensive pressure and hit three point shots. That's it. Teams couldn't get the ball over the timeline. Lost it to the constant pestering. If Gil ultimately didn't find a role with the team, and found frustration since he had altered his game to fit what was asked of him but wasn't rewarded with a roster slot, well okay. But hey no slouch to be beaten out by DWade, Kobe and the like at the scoring guard position. Pretty good company.

Which brings us back to the central point. Gilbert at his best compares favorably to the elite players in the league. If he's a tier lower, okay, acceptable -- he's not the highest flier, tallest, no God of Superior Genetics like LBJ. He's a little guy, 6'3" barefoot, doing his damnedest to prove he simply fits in the league.

Hell he plays best as the underdog with something to prove anyway. He's an overachiever who earns any accolades not merely because of an ebullient personality and a collection of quirks, but because he is one of the most compellingly obsessively driven individuals in the league. A player about whom his new coach says he's 'never seen' a player who works as hard and thinks as much about the game 24/7. And this coming from the guy who coached Kevin Garnett for a decade or so.

You admit, you hate his game. Okay. Points awarded I suppose for honesty. Few 'haters' claim the label. Often they try to hide behind a cloud of obfuscating stats and justify their dislike with a pose of objectivity. They don't like the 'act' as they perceive it (third hand via media reports) adn would like a defensible reason for the feeling.

But any would-be analyst shoots themself in the reputation if they stake their claim on the idea that Gilbert somehow hurts his team on the offensive end. The facts simply do not line up on that side, and, I think most would agree, to stick to that tactic would tend to suggest to readers that the author of that opinion is quite likely a mouthbreathing pantload. Just saying.

So don't talk bad about my friend Gilbert because it hurts my feelings, and makes me want to be really mean back to you. Stop being a meanie or I will shake my fist and then tell on you.

I normally don't quote ridiculously long posts and add little to it but......