NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 2023-24

ocelot17 · Post #41 » by **ocelot17** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 1:08 pm

?s=46&t=-lnZlgLd6VGY2tBczYbleA

Jadoogar · Post #42 » by **Jadoogar** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:23 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Wemby's far and away the safest bet so yeah, nothing too controversial here, it'll probably be him. Don't get the Chet odds at all. He's got zero shot of putting up enough raw numbers with SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams as their clear Top-3 usage guys. If I can take the odds against someone winning ROTY, it's Chet in a landslide.

It's just based on history. We have seen guys who missed their first season perform very well in their "true" rookie season because they have an extra year of NBA practice and all the off court stuff.

Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin, Embiid all had great rookie seasons after missing time.

basketballRob · Post #43 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:34 pm

Jadoogar wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:Wemby's far and away the safest bet so yeah, nothing too controversial here, it'll probably be him. Don't get the Chet odds at all. He's got zero shot of putting up enough raw numbers with SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams as their clear Top-3 usage guys. If I can take the odds against someone winning ROTY, it's Chet in a landslide.

It's just based on history. We have seen guys who missed their first season perform very well in their "true" rookie season because they have an extra year of NBA practice and all the off court stuff.

Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin, Embiid all had great rookie seasons after missing time.

We haven't seen a basketball player with that injury come back, tho. There is a whole list of top 5 picks that got injured and never fully recovered.

I like Chet and wish him the best, but you have to be realistic in expectations.

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HotelVitale · Post #44 » by **HotelVitale** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 3:08 pm

basketballRob wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:Wemby's far and away the safest bet so yeah, nothing too controversial here, it'll probably be him. Don't get the Chet odds at all. He's got zero shot of putting up enough raw numbers with SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams as their clear Top-3 usage guys. If I can take the odds against someone winning ROTY, it's Chet in a landslide.

It's just based on history. We have seen guys who missed their first season perform very well in their "true" rookie season because they have an extra year of NBA practice and all the off court stuff.

Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin, Embiid all had great rookie seasons after missing time.
We haven't seen a basketball player with that injury come back, tho. There is a whole list of top 5 picks that got injured and never fully recovered.

I like Chet and wish him the best, but you have to be realistic in expectations.

Yeah I don't like that logic or history at all. Those three guys were all clearly the best prospects in their class and were all notably physically/athletically dominant, so it makes sense that they stepped in as soon as they could play and became ROYs. Even if it's helpful to sit the year and adjust a little to the NBA schedule, I strongly doubt that sitting out a year translates into a major on-court advantage to every player. If those three didn't miss that year and were healthy right from the jump, they would've likely been just about as impressive as rookies.

Jadoogar · Post #45 » by **Jadoogar** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 3:12 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:
It's just based on history. We have seen guys who missed their first season perform very well in their "true" rookie season because they have an extra year of NBA practice and all the off court stuff.

Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin, Embiid all had great rookie seasons after missing time.
We haven't seen a basketball player with that injury come back, tho. There is a whole list of top 5 picks that got injured and never fully recovered.

I like Chet and wish him the best, but you have to be realistic in expectations.

Yeah I don't like that logic or history at all. Those three guys were all clearly the best prospects in their class and were all notably physically/athletically dominant, so it makes sense that they stepped in as soon as they could play and became ROYs. Even if it's helpful to sit the year and adjust a little to the NBA schedule, I strongly doubt that sitting out a year translates into a major on-court advantage to every player. If those three didn't miss that year and were healthy right from the jump, they would've likely been just about as impressive as rookies.

Ok another example is Julius Randle (he got hurt in his first game). He wasn't as talented as these three guys but he averaged a double double in his first true season.

I don't think Chet will win ROY because his team is good. But i think there are real advantages to being in the NBA system for a year.

Scoot would have been my first choice but i don't know if he'll get the opportunity on this current POR roster.

HotelVitale · Post #46 » by **HotelVitale** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 3:42 pm

Jadoogar wrote:
HotelVitale wrote:
basketballRob wrote:We haven't seen a basketball player with that injury come back, tho. There is a whole list of top 5 picks that got injured and never fully recovered.

I like Chet and wish him the best, but you have to be realistic in expectations.

Yeah I don't like that logic or history at all. Those three guys were all clearly the best prospects in their class and were all notably physically/athletically dominant, so it makes sense that they stepped in as soon as they could play and became ROYs. Even if it's helpful to sit the year and adjust a little to the NBA schedule, I strongly doubt that sitting out a year translates into a major on-court advantage to every player. If those three didn't miss that year and were healthy right from the jump, they would've likely been just about as impressive as rookies.

Ok another example is Julius Randle (he got hurt in his first game). He wasn't as talented as these three guys but he averaged a double double in his first true season.

I don't think Chet will win ROY because his team is good. But i think there are real advantages to being in the NBA system for a year.

Scoot would have been my first choice but i don't know if he'll get the opportunity on this current POR roster.

Again Randle's game and situation explains that much better and more directly than this airy advantage that not playing for a whole season somehow gives you. Randle was productive right away in the NBA, but he was also terrible and playing on an absolute tank-fest of a Lakers team that won 17 games. Randle also played almost 30 mpg depsite a laughable 48% TS. He's just not a strong argument for someone who become a much better and more NBA-ready player because he sat out a year.

Also just off top of head, Zhaire Smith missing his rookie year was a total disaster, Wiseman missing 1.5 of his first 2 years was obviously horrible, Johnny Flynn was brutal. I'm sure there's more (but no quick way to google it).

I don't have any irrational disdain for this idea or anything, just doesn't work and has tons of flaws as an assumption to my eyes. I think the advantage it gives you is something but it's much much smaller than 'will elevate you a tier or two as a rookie.' Especially if your evidence for that is a handful of superstar rookies.

Post #47 » by **cupcakesnake** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 4:06 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
Jadoogar wrote:
HotelVitale wrote:
Yeah I don't like that logic or history at all. Those three guys were all clearly the best prospects in their class and were all notably physically/athletically dominant, so it makes sense that they stepped in as soon as they could play and became ROYs. Even if it's helpful to sit the year and adjust a little to the NBA schedule, I strongly doubt that sitting out a year translates into a major on-court advantage to every player. If those three didn't miss that year and were healthy right from the jump, they would've likely been just about as impressive as rookies.

Ok another example is Julius Randle (he got hurt in his first game). He wasn't as talented as these three guys but he averaged a double double in his first true season.

I don't think Chet will win ROY because his team is good. But i think there are real advantages to being in the NBA system for a year.

Scoot would have been my first choice but i don't know if he'll get the opportunity on this current POR roster.

Again Randle's game and situation explains that much better and more directly than this airy advantage that not playing for a whole season somehow gives you. Randle was productive right away in the NBA, but he was also terrible and playing on an absolute tank-fest of a Lakers team that won 17 games. Randle also played almost 30 mpg depsite a laughable 48% TS. He's just not a strong argument for someone who become a much better and more NBA-ready player because he sat out a year.

Also just off top of head, Zhaire Smith missing his rookie year was a total disaster, Wiseman missing 1.5 of his first 2 years was obviously horrible, Johnny Flynn was brutal. I'm sure there's more (but no quick way to google it).

I don't have any irrational disdain for this idea or anything, just doesn't work and has tons of flaws as an assumption to my eyes. I think the advantage it gives you is something but it's much much smaller than 'will elevate you a tier or two as a rookie.' Especially if your evidence for that is a handful of superstar rookies.

Agreed.
Player injuries are never great, for obvious reasons. I think with players of a certain pedigree, where franchises are very dedicated to building around them, can withstand and injury season. Guys like Ben Simmons or Blake Griffin where their teams were completely fine waiting for them to come lead a young, bad franchise. But like HotelVitale is saying here, miss your rookie season and lots can happen with the team's direction in the meantime. A mid-to-late first-round pick might miss their shot at a big minute development year. Or another player gets drafted at your position, and their early success comes at your success.

basketballRob · Post #48 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:22 pm

Delete

basketballRob · Post #49 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:01 pm

Black getting up shots in his Magic shorts.

Watch on YouTube

SlovenianDragon · Post #50 » by **SlovenianDragon** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 10:54 pm

Bornstellar wrote:It's gonna be Victor. Everyone else can save their hot takes

If u want to bet tho u need to risk it with some1 else...Theres no value in taking victor.

Its like the memes from the nba draft where you could bet 10k to get 1 dollar if victor went number 1.

Mbrahv0528 · Post #51 » by **Mbrahv0528** » Wed Jun 28, 2023 12:04 am

clyde21 wrote:just included top 8 picks + Chet/Other options.

*hate that Chet is eligible but it is what it is

He is literally a rookie, why would you hate it?

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clyde21 · Post #52 » by **clyde21** » Wed Jun 28, 2023 12:15 am

Mbrahv0528 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:just included top 8 picks + Chet/Other options.

*hate that Chet is eligible but it is what it is
He is literally a rookie, why would you hate it?

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he's literally a 2nd year player.

PhilBlackson · Post #53 » by **PhilBlackson** » Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:34 am

ocelot17 wrote:

Read on Twitter
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I’m still disappointed af my Raps didn’t take him.

I don’t hate on Gradey, I just think we could’ve developed the heck outta Cam and made him a much more valuable player long term.

clyde21 · Post #54 » by **clyde21** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 12:30 am

im surprised Amen has more votes than Ausar

Post #55 » by **Mavrelous** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 9:33 am

VW will have all the room and PT he needs, so he's the likely winner, but at the reported betting odds, I'd bet on Miller, oldest, with the most developed game, and will have enough time to showcase himself.

basketballRob · Post #56 » by **basketballRob** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 10:51 am

Walker is going to start and get a lot of minutes. Last season, they were playing Nesmith at the 4.

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zeebneeb · Post #57 » by **zeebneeb** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 3:42 pm

clyde21 wrote:im surprised Amen has more votes than Ausar

I'm surprised Ausar was even included on the list. Zero shot.

Heat_team02 · Post #58 » by **Heat_team02** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 6:42 pm

10 Highest Vertical Jumps

1) Julian Phillips, Tennessee: 43 inches
2) Mojave King, G League Ignite: 42 inches
3) Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette: 40.5 inches
4) Cam Whitemore, Villanova: 40.5 inches
5) Andre Jackson Jr., UConn: 39.5 inches
6) Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA: 39 inches
7) Anthony Black, Arkansas: 39 inches
8) Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara: 39 inches
9) Reece Beekman, Virginia: 38 inches
10) Jarace Walker, Houston: 38 inches

10 Highest Standing Vertical Jumps

1) Julian Phillips, Tennessee: 36 inches
2) Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette: 35 inches
3) Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA: 34.5 inches
4) Jarace Walker, Houston: 34.5 inches
5) Mojave King, G League Ignite: 33.5 inches
6) Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana: 33 inches
7) Mike Miles Jr., TCU: 33 inches
8) Jordan Walsh, Arkansas: 33 inches
9) Taylor Hendricks, UCF: 32.5 inches
10) Arthur Kaluma, Creighton: 32.5 inches

PMONSTER · Post #59 » by **PMONSTER** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 7:32 pm

I’m excited to see Chet play…. I really feel like the Thunder should go after Rudy Gobert to help protect Chet. But the Thunder look good

HotelVitale · Post #60 » by **HotelVitale** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 8:17 pm

PMONSTER wrote:I’m excited to see Chet play…. I really feel like the Thunder should go after Rudy Gobert to help protect Chet. But the Thunder look good

I still think Chet’s injury was likely a freak thing, not a result of him being frail or whatever. I got that same injury once and never had any food problems before or after, and it’s not like skinny guys have some horrible history of foot bone injuries.

Make two selections: One between Wemby/Holmgren and one for the rest