The Master wrote:madskillz8 wrote:While their performances are impressive, considering their height & wingspan and the minutes they're getting, it is not really surprising they're averaging good block numbers. Also as LockoutSeason suggested, it is not like "if they doing that as a rookie, imagine five years from now on" when it comes to shot blocking. It might very well be on downward trajectory, especially for Wemby with an increased offensive responsibilities.
1. On the other hand: Wembanyama played 29.7 MPG (career low, I guess) and 20% of his playing time was out of position as a power forward on defense. As a starting center, he had 3.9 BPG in 29.5 MPG (4.5 BPG post-allstar game) - so I highly doubt his overall number of blocks will decrease vs his rookie year, maybe on per36/per100 basis.
2. There are several DPOTY-winning defenders, who improved more or less as shot-blockers in terms of pure number of blocked shots (Jackson, Gasol, Dwight, Hakeem, Camby, Wallace, Mourning, Mutombo, Robinson), per100 possessions, since their respective rookie years.
TBH, I was thinking about 7'1+ players with long arms who played considerable minutes as a rookie, and I definitely missed out Mutombo and Robinson.
Mutombo 7'2-7'6 (avg. 3.0 blocks as a rookie, career average: 2.8)
Robinson 7'1-7'5 (avg. 3.9 blocks as a rookie, career average 3.0)
My main argument was the fact that rookies with extreme height and wingspan always produce high block numbers. Because height & wingspan is there from day 1. Anyone who played a pickup game with his younger cousins can understand what I am saying, even at 5'8 you can feel like a Dikembe Mutombo out there, lol.
In addition to this argument, once I started listing numbers, I observed that it is also common for this kind of rookies to average peak or near peak block numbers as a rookie, so his point stands still. I also partially agree with your takes on Wemby, it is really hard to predict numbers for the next year.
But I will add a couple of counter points:
- opposing teams will be adjusting their game plans accordingly, and players will be more hesitant to shot over him. The latter is good for Spurs but not for his averages. The Gobert effect.
- he's young, all eyes on him, thus he's trying hard to prove the hype. I mean, he often jumps so high to block very hard to block shots IMO. Given his frame, I think he would eventually learn to protect his body - the way Zion stopped dunking and out jumping everyone even though he is still capable.