Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#81 » by Lunartic » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:16 pm

thinktank wrote:
Lunartic wrote:I'm old enough to remember when Donovan Mitchell was considered to be a superstar because of his playoff runs with Utah.


I’m old enough to remember that he never played defense and that I never felt he was a superstar like I do with Ant.

I’m also old enough to compare Ant next to Rudy and Mitchell next to Rudy.




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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#82 » by Klomp » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:17 pm

thinktank wrote:Better check his playoff numbers.

And he’s 22!

The guys you mentioned are 5 years older.

This right here is the biggest difference-maker in the "metrics" you speak of.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#83 » by EmpireFalls » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:18 pm

Ant gets a lot of help that's why. He is basically Western Conference Tatum.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#84 » by DoctorX » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:23 pm

OkcSinceSGA wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
OkcSinceSGA wrote:
It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.


Most young guys get liked for being cocky and trash talking, it's all about building them up to stomp on them when they inevitably fail to win a championship by 27. Ant is going to dragged if Wolves don't win a championship, better believe it. We're just not in the phase that is satisfying to you I guess.

Who are you talking about that gets killed for trash talk?

I specifically stated that man defenders don't get picked up well, bigs and help defenders do ok on box score because you pick up rebounds, steals and blocks. But even still KG was at 0.146 at 22, similar to Ant.


KG came in out of high school and similar to Kobe took a few years to really become a positive player. I kinda missed the man defender qualifier, my bad. I’m saying in general guys like Booker, Luka, Embiid, Pat Bev, Draymond get hammered for being “cocky” or trash talk. People root for their downfall when they do it.

Yet with Edwards people supposedly love him for a lot of the same antics. It’s odd how it seems selective in how we react to behaviors based on WHO is doing it. Maybe it’s because he’s the new shiny young toy, but will be turned on in a few years I’m sure.


Edwards gets away with his antics because he's charismatic, flashy, and not a dirty player. Draymond and Pat Bev are both dirty not exciting players to watch and are not likable hence why people hate them.

I would say Booker, Luka, are not dirty but they don't have the charisma or the flashy game that Edwards has.

Embiid despite being talented is dirty as seen in the Knicks series and his game is not flashy.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#85 » by cupcakesnake » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:27 pm

tsherkin wrote:This isn't hard to answer.

His regular season play is a lot worse than how he's played during the playoffs. And when you look at his playoff metrics, they reflect the large difference in quality of play. When you're a high-volume scorer who is a negative TSAdd kind of guy, you tend not to do that well in overall numbers. When you're a +5.5% rTS guy in the playoffs, things look a little different. He's also shooting over 90% at the line so far in the postseason, and was under 84% in his first season as an 80%+ FT shooter in the RS.

He isn't the playmaker or rebounder we see from Luka, but he's a considerably better defender and he's been a monster in 3 straight playoff series. We'll see what happens in the second round, but like, he's been a beast. He's night and day on offense during the postseason to date in his career. In the RS, he's a bleh volume scorer under league-average efficiency, more exciting than high-impact. And then the playoffs start and he does this.


Yeah all of this.
Behind the numbers is the fact that Ant still has holes (or at least inconsistencies) in his game.

Both his scoring tools and his playmaking have improved, but he has a bit of a one track mind and has a hard time flipping the switch from score to pass. If you look at his pick & roll possessions this year, he almost never makes the quick read to hit an open roll man, or the open spacer.

Arguably the 2 most valuable shots the T-Wolves offense can generate, are an open (above the break) 3 for Towns, or a high pass/lob for a Rudy Gobert dunk. With the ball in Ant's hands (due to the fear of his driving and pull up counter), the offenses consistently generates those exact opportunities. Ant doesn't hit them though. He'll take the pull up instead of the lob to Rudy, and he'll drive to the basket while Towns stands alone at the top of the paint. Ant does some amazing playmaking, but it usually happens when he's completely sucked the defense towards him. He can create big playmaking windows, but he consistently misses the small ones.

So you've got a guy who consistently turns really easy offense (dunks and open 3s) into difficult offense (pull ups and drives into the teeth of the defense). Not hard to imagine why its visible in impact metrics and scoring efficiency. Guys like Luka and SGA have another layer with the ball in their hands where they're consistently creating something easy.

The encouraging thing is that this is something with a decent likelihood of improvement. Making quicker reads is something players accomplish with film study and reps.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#86 » by thinktank » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:28 pm

EmpireFalls wrote:Ant gets a lot of help that's why. He is basically Western Conference Tatum.


Right. With clutch and more athleticism.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#87 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:29 pm

76Shots wrote:Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.


This is true and why Edwards ISN'T that good!
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#88 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:30 pm

famicommander wrote:He's playing next to the DPOY, an All-Star, the 6th Man of the Year, a solid veteran point guard, and good role players with a good coach on top of it. He's going to have some of his numbers naturally deflated and some of his numbers inflated because of the quality surrounding him.


Or because Gobert is actually their best player...
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#89 » by Klomp » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:30 pm

Lunartic wrote:I'm old enough to remember when Donovan Mitchell was considered to be a superstar because of his playoff runs with Utah.

I don't have a problem with you bringing that comparison into the discussion. Why? Because these were both kids who were put under the bright lights at an early age, simply because having Rudy Gobert on your team gives you a floor of team success that all but ensures that you will be in the playoffs. And once you're there, a defense anchored by Rudy Gobert allows a talented young scoring guard to focus primarily on what he does best on the offensive end of the court.

Edwards is currently just 22 and has never averaged less than 25 ppg in the playoffs in his third series. To go back to SGA, he averaged only 16 ppg in his first playoff series (but he got a pass for it because he was only 21 then).
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#90 » by KembaWalker » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:30 pm

He’s not a heliocentric ball hog that leaves his team rudderless when he’s off the floor
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#91 » by NYPiston » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:36 pm

dk1115 wrote:
Nikola Jokic, who is probably the best player in the league, isn't hard to watch, but I think I can name a good 30-40 players I'd rather watch than him.


This is all subjective but I don't understand how any basketball purist isn't thoroughly entertained by Jokic. I suppose those who prefer flashiness aren't but from a pure basketball perspective, watching his basketball genius on display who plays within the framework of a consummate team game is a sight to behold and, for me, is very entertaining sort of like how Duncan played.

I just have a bias towards "thinking" players. Brunson is another one that I find very entertaining without the obvious athleticism and explosiveness that conventional fans tend to gravitate towards.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#92 » by VicG » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:40 pm

He’s a great young player but is overhyped. An example Simmons and Russillo were discussing him today and how he broke out at the World Cup team making it “his”. Reminder: that team did not even medal lmao
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#93 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:41 pm

runtmc wrote:+/- stats are notoriously very, very noisy, meaning they can jump around a lot year to year (which to the creator's credit, is likely why they are also showing 3 and 5 year metrics), they can have issues with correlation (eg if you and another player are always on the court together, it can be difficult to separate out who is having an impact) and without knowing more about methodology it would be hard to say much about accuracy.

I havent seen this particular site before, but I can just say any metric that has Kentavious Caldwell Pope as the 4th best player in the NBA and Jokic 11th is probably not particularly accurate (and probably suffering from correlation issues as mentioned) -- along the same lines, Naz Reid, Mike Conley, and Ant are all rated higher defensively than Gobert, which also doesnt pass the smell test.

Also, quite a number of other adjusted plus minus advanced stats dont have Edwards nearly as high -- EPM has him 22nd, LEBRON has him 52nd, etc.


If you're looking at an NPI RAPM, it's just going to be messy as heck. Doesn't mean we can't use it, but the error level is gonna be HUGE. That's why when people say RAPM they tend to mean prior informed.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#94 » by QMemphis » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:44 pm

OkcSinceSGA wrote:Face of the league. Superstar. Best SG in the league. Things I’m seeing a lot right now. He’s basically the league darling right now. People talk about him like he’s the next Jordan. You even have insane people trying to partake in revisionist history and saying he’s in the same tier this season as Luka and SGA.

But something I find odd is he’s not well liked by impact metrics. SGA and Luka for example are .250-.270 WS/48 players which is HOF/MVP tier. Ant is at .130, which is literally not even all star tier basically. Normally players at that level are high end starters, to low end all stars. .100 is a league average player, .150 area is typically an all star, .200 is a superstar, .250-.300 is usually a first ballot HOF/Multiple time MVP (guys like MJ, Jokic, Wilt, LeBron, KG etc).

EPM has SGA and Luka at #2 and #3 for example with 8.8 and 7.9. Edwards is at 4.2 which is ranked 22nd in the league after guys like FVV. Why is his hype/reputation so much better than his impact metrics?


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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#95 » by life_saver » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:47 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
famicommander wrote:He's playing next to the DPOY, an All-Star, the 6th Man of the Year, a solid veteran point guard, and good role players with a good coach on top of it. He's going to have some of his numbers naturally deflated and some of his numbers inflated because of the quality surrounding him.


Or because Gobert is actually their best player...

maybe in RS but not in playoffs..Ant is Wolves best player when he is locked in, something that he doesn't do consistently throughout RS.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#96 » by Klomp » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:48 pm

This might have something to do with it....

Read on Twitter
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#97 » by life_saver » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:51 pm

Thing is actual advanced stats show Ant as top15 players this RS, not box score stats like BPM. RAPTOR has Ant as 11th best player this RS

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#98 » by tsherkin » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:59 pm

Klomp wrote:This might have something to do with it....

Read on Twitter



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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#99 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:59 pm

life_saver wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
famicommander wrote:He's playing next to the DPOY, an All-Star, the 6th Man of the Year, a solid veteran point guard, and good role players with a good coach on top of it. He's going to have some of his numbers naturally deflated and some of his numbers inflated because of the quality surrounding him.


Or because Gobert is actually their best player...

maybe in RS but not in playoffs..Ant is Wolves best player when he is locked in, something that he doesn't do consistently throughout RS.


We don't have enough data or context to even decide that. This team needs both to go anywhere as neither are top 10 players.
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Re: Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype? 

Post#100 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Apr 29, 2024 3:04 pm

life_saver wrote:Thing is actual advanced stats show Ant as top15 players this RS, not box score stats like BPM. RAPTOR has Ant as 11th best player this RS

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings


Raptor is a nice stat to have in the shed but it's not a great metric. LEBRON has him outside the top 50 (which seems a bit harsh). EPM was already brought up. Those are our two best public metrics...that and Darko which is harder for me to pull data so happy to see if DARKO has him higher. It is possibly the best metric.

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