40InchVert wrote:Ultimately, I think the lockout ends when the lower payed players cave in to the demands of the owners due to financial reasons. As another poster pointed out above, some players live paycheck to paycheck. It is easy for the stars of the league to hold out on the deal since they get paid an astronomical amount every year in salaries and endorsements. The number of lower paid players out number the higher paid players and with their lifestyle, many of these guys will realize that their bank accounts are running low.
I would be shocked if you are wrong about this. On the Bulls board the other day a few of us came up with the following prediction:
(1) In September, the owners will concede some things and will make a "final" offer to save the season. Despite the concessions, the owners' proposal will still include a
signifcant shift in the BRI split as opposed to the modest one the players have offered.
(2) The players, believing (hoping) they have leverage and/or that the owners don't have the resolve to risk the season coming off of one so popular, will reject the proposal.
(3) Games will start being lost/paychecks will cease.
(4) With the financial pressure actually being brought to bear (most NBA players don't start getting paychecks until October), the owners' offers will actually get worse, not better.
(5) In January, the players will fold and accept a deal worse than the one they rejected in September.