Stein: Nuggets to sign Afflalo for 5 yrs, $43M

[DanTown8587]

Amazed how uneducated so many posters are here still. If you're going to compare players using points per game, your posts are completely worthless and uneducated. Take a look at efficiency stats and maybe I'll read your post.

Or watch the two play? Seriously, this Afflalo v Ellis debate has the two most frustrating arguments ever. The first is "Guy X MUST BE HEADS AND SHOULDER BETTER than Guy Y" even though they both are good SG and the second dumbest argument is "let's orgasm over advanced stats and screw basic ones".

Between both watching the two play and looking at advanced stats will tell you all you need to know about the two. Ellis can create offense on his own but has a questionable shot selection often taking long twos while Afflalo is a master of shooting high percentage shots and high efficiency shots like threes and shots at the rim. If you asked Afflalo to do more, he likely would see his efficiency decrease and Ellis, if he did less, would see an increase.

The two are different and would be asked to do different things on most teams.

[lovethewire]

This homerism is ridiculous, this site is getting old, quick, Denver grossly overpaid for nene and affalo, people keep factoring in his defense, he's not Bowen, battier, or artest he's solid defensively, he's not lockdown, he is a solid three point shooter and not much else, my definition of a9 million dollar guard is one that would start on any team in this league, affalo ain't that

[sixerswillrule]

Marvin
Marion
Calderon
Reddick
CV
Butler
Maggette
Conley
Salmons
Mo
Thad
Thornton
Ariza
Stuckey
RJ
Outlaw
Harris

On that list are half a dozen of the worst contracts in the NBA in Marvin, Jose, CV, Maggette, Mo, RJ and Outlaw - a couple of 'potential' guys who got overpaid and whose teams have or will live to regret it in Ariza, Stuckey, Harris. Let's be clear, there are MAYBE 3 guys on that list who didn't get overpaid, most of them pretty drastically. Aside from those guys that is not a list you want your new signing associated with - if you take out the guys who just signed at least 90% of the teams who signed the guys on that list would regret it right now.

Whether or not a team would regret it doesn't really matter because players are overpaid or underpaid relative to how everyone else is paid. If every year the process repeats itself and players are signed to regrettable contracts, then nothing changes. It's lines like:

jeez almost every FA is overpaid

that just make no sense. We're dealing with reality here, not an ideal world where you think the majority of players should get paid less. You have to actually look at what everyone else is paid. That's how you determine whether someone is overpaid or not, not by coming up with some arbitrary number in your head for what you believe a guy is worth, a number that's not based on anything.

Afflalo is worth 7-8 million per year when compared to the guys above. I'm sure there are more names that could be added to the list. If he was so drastically overpaid and is really worth only 5-6 million per year, then you should be able to name 20 players who he is worth only 4 million when compared to, canceling out that list. And these should be players not on their rookie deals who are/were signed to multiple year contracts.

[Gus McCrae]

I don't have a problem with the annual money but 5 years is too long. Too much risk with not enough reward IMO. I'd either go $26M/3 year or something like $32M/5 years (5th year player option).

[eslr]

I think a good perspective on the signing:

Wesley Mathews is widely viewed as a player on a bargain contract. Afflalo's new contract gives him about $1.5 mill more per season. Afflalo is significantly more efficient, has a significantly higher assist ratio, a lower turnover ratio, and a higher rebound rate. I don't think that makes him $1.5 mill more valuable than Mathews, but I also think it is indicative that Afflalo's contract isn't outrageous.

Nuggets think a lot of their players were underrated since they got few touches playing alongside Melo and Chauncey. Afflalo put up his stats playing next to those two (after the Melo trade Afflalo was injured the rest of the season). It pretty reasonable to assume his usage rate will go up significantly, and he will be a 16-17 ppg player this season.

[lovethewire]

I think a good perspective on the signing:

Wesley Mathews is widely viewed as a player on a bargain contract. Afflalo's new contract gives him about $1.5 mill more per season. Afflalo is significantly more efficient, has a significantly higher assist ratio, a lower turnover ratio, and a higher rebound rate. I don't think that makes him $1.5 mill more valuable than Mathews, but I also think it is indicative that Afflalo's contract isn't outrageous.

Nuggets think a lot of their players were underrated since they got few touches playing alongside Melo and Chauncey. Afflalo put up his stats playing next to those two (after the Melo trade Afflalo was injured the rest of the season). It pretty reasonable to assume his usage rate will go up significantly, and he will be a 16-17 ppg player this season.

Wes was also 23 when he signed his deal, IMO Wes is a better player and u can't compare stats unless u take all factors in account, Portland has better rebounding and plays a much slower pace, afflalo rebounding should be better

[Darain]

Um.. Scared to see Derozan get paid.

Double Max

...Elaborate

Like 30 million per year?

[eathb_au]

There is not a single team in the NBA where Afflalo wouldn't make better.

[lovethewire]

There is not a single team in the NBA where Afflalo wouldn't make better.

What's your point, that applies to alot of average players so that's pretty useless

[DaFan334]

Amazed how uneducated so many posters are here still. If you're going to compare players using points per game, your posts are completely worthless and uneducated. Take a look at efficiency stats and maybe I'll read your post.

Or watch the two play? Seriously, this Afflalo v Ellis debate has the two most frustrating arguments ever. The first is "Guy X MUST BE HEADS AND SHOULDER BETTER than Guy Y" even though they both are good SG and the second dumbest argument is "let's orgasm over advanced stats and screw basic ones".

Between both watching the two play and looking at advanced stats will tell you all you need to know about the two. Ellis can create offense on his own but has a questionable shot selection often taking long twos while Afflalo is a master of shooting high percentage shots and high efficiency shots like threes and shots at the rim. If you asked Afflalo to do more, he likely would see his efficiency decrease and Ellis, if he did less, would see an increase.

The two are different and would be asked to do different things on most teams.

I wasn't saying to look at advanced stats alone over actually watching games. I was more so making the point that showing points per game as your argument while completely ignoring a HUGE difference in efficiency is a terrible way to make a case for your view. It really isn't even worth me bothering reading what you have to say if you are going to be completely ignorant the type of statistics that actually matter.

As for your comparison of the two, I think you are spot on, with the exception of missing the mid range game that he strongly developed last year.

[Wigginstime]

Having followed the Chicago board for most of the summer in their hunt for a SG, the general consensus was that Afflalo wasn't even worth discussisng because he was easily more valuable than the MLE and that was all the Bulls would have to offer.

Most of the offseason discussions had placed Afflalo signing some where aroudn 7.5M a year.

I don't understand why suddenly everyone is so appaled by his contract.

[coldgrip1]

Amazed how uneducated so many posters are here still. If you're going to compare players using points per game, your posts are completely worthless and uneducated. Take a look at efficiency stats and maybe I'll read your post.

Get the fugg outta here

You want efficiency stats? Ellis in his contract year averaged 20ppg on 53% shooting .. And that year, he was praised for outstanding defense. Go ask warriors fans.

Offensively limited 3rd/4th option players like Affalo are supposed have good efficiency. They're not asked to scored. This is a 13/3/4 marginal player in his contract year .

Volume scorers like Kobe, Wade, Ellis, the more the volume goes up, their effiency will decrease. Defenses focus on them. When Ellis' minutes are limited and he's not ask to carry the load, his efficiency destroys Affalo so don't even go there, chump..

Duno why we're even comparing a very limited player like Affalo to Ellis There are 20 SGs in the league better than him.

[clockwork]

Man... Affalo is an excellent defender but he cannot create offense for himself or others. Not worth 8,9 mil a year IMO. But he's still young and can improve his playmaking.

Exactly what I was thinking, J.Richardson and R.Hamilton must be wondering why they are getting paid 5 mil why a unproven young SG is getting paid almost twice as they are. I think the reasonable pay days of past is history now, this new generation of players are getting paid for being young and having potential instead of being paid for what they could do and have done out there. Just to a few example : D.Jordan(LAC)(5 yr/43 mil) , M.Gasol ( max contract) etc. I guess just being younger nowadays is a reasonable element for a big pay check as well.

you're the biggest schmuck on this website. it's obvious you know very little about basketball in general. being younger nowadays is a reasonable element for a big pay check as well? since when has this 'element' been atypical, especially in basketball?

you name hamilton and richardson, two players that are in their 30's and in their decline. if you pay them the same amount you pay afflalo that's a poor, poor investment. why people pay more to young players is because they can still grow, which afflalo has shown in all his years. granted he doesn't score as much as ellis, or richardson or hamilton but look at the nuggets team in general, since when have we needed to compete with any other nba team in the scoring category? in the long years i've been a nuggets fan, i've never seen this problem.

as corona on our board put it:

afflalo also has all the intangibles that aren't measured statistically and have significant impact on games/teammates...etc.
1v1 defense. team defense. making smart plays. not committing stupid fouls or stupid turnovers. not gambling for steals or getting burned backdoor. being clutch. being a leader on and off the court. being focused for 48 minutes 82 times a year. being a professional. etc

[clockwork]

Having followed the Chicago board for most of the summer in their hunt for a SG, the general consensus was that Afflalo wasn't even worth discussisng because he was easily more valuable than the MLE and that was all the Bulls would have to offer.

Most of the offseason discussions had placed Afflalo signing some where aroudn 7.5M a year.

I don't understand why suddenly everyone is so appaled by his contract.

because this is realgm where kids can feel big.

[Nuggets_Talk]

This is a terrible deal. The problem with the "had to pay" argument is that you didn't. Aaron Afflalo is not a a make or break player. Role playing wings are picked off the scrap heap every season.


So now what do you pay Gallinari after this contract?

how much was AA worth?

Less than the MLE. So they paid him almost twice as much as he is worth.

wow, thats your opinion. awful one but its yours.

This homerism is ridiculous, this site is getting old, quick, Denver grossly overpaid for nene and affalo, people keep factoring in his defense, he's not Bowen, battier, or artest he's solid defensively, he's not lockdown, he is a solid three point shooter and not much else, my definition of a9 million dollar guard is one that would start on any team in this league, affalo ain't that

ill let the overpay part go but grossly? not even.

[Nuggets_Talk]

Having followed the Chicago board for most of the summer in their hunt for a SG, the general consensus was that Afflalo wasn't even worth discussisng because he was easily more valuable than the MLE and that was all the Bulls would have to offer.

Most of the offseason discussions had placed Afflalo signing some where aroudn 7.5M a year.

I don't understand why suddenly everyone is so appaled by his contract.

well said. im sure he would have gotten at least 7 mill per year from multiple teams if he wasnt restricted.

and to find a better player who is cheaper is a stupid argument.

same reason we could find a worse player making more to say its a great deal.

doesnt worth in either case.

[elbowthrower]

he can't create his own shot

Really? Did you watch him last year?

It's an area where he improved a lot last year.

[PDXKnight]

This is too much money to commit to a role player imo, but he's pretty important to the Nuggets squad so apparently they felt it was worth it. This signing makes me feel even better about the Wesley Matthews signing last season.

[eathb_au]

There is not a single team in the NBA where Afflalo wouldn't make better.

What's your point, that applies to alot of average players so that's pretty useless

I can think of many players better than him that wouldn't make a team better.

Ellis and Carmelo for starters.

I'd also rather have him than any SG not named Kobe, Wade, Manu, Gordon or Harden

[robinsoncano]

There is not a single team in the NBA where Afflalo wouldn't make better.

What's your point, that applies to alot of average players so that's pretty useless

I can think of many players better than him that wouldn't make a team better.

Ellis and Carmelo for starters.

I'd also rather have him than any SG not named Kobe, Wade, Manu, Gordon or Harden

AFflalo > Melo?

great logic. I guess every player that puts on a Knicks jersey morphs into a pile of dog s***