NBA Lottery

Ronito · Post #1 » by **Ronito** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:15 am

Curious as to what the consensus is here on RealGM regarding the NBA lottery...

Question 1: Do you think the NBA lottery is broken? Why?

Question 2: If so, what would you do to fix it?

In my opinion, it is broken. The team with the worst record in the league has a better chance of getting the 4th overall pick than the 1st overall pick, and have a better shot at getting the #4 pick than any other team. I also don't see why teams that aren't horrendous even have a shot at landing the #1 overall pick; how many times do we need to see truly horrible teams miss out on franchise players?

The NBA doesn't want to encourage losing it seems, which is understandable. But then why are teams that just miss the playoffs even in the lottery? Wouldn't a team rather miss the playoffs than be a 8 seed anyway (at least 99% of the time)? Of course, I can see the other side for this argument for teams that just want the $$$ from the few playoff games they'll get at home.

Could you imagine if the Bobcats, the way they are currently constructed, land the #4 overall pick? They are more likely to get that pick than any other one. They are legitimately a horrendous team in every sense of the word, perhaps one of the worst teams we've ever seen. And no, I'm not a Bobcats fan, I'm a Nets fan.

What would I do to fix it? I don't really know, but I think the percentages should be changed. Also, the teams that are in the lottery need to be cut down. Even though the teams at the way back have less than a 1% chance to get the #1 pick, I just don't see a reason AT ALL why they should be in the lottery.

Edit - FWIW, I'm a Nets fan. We traded our pick top 3 protected and I'm rooting for my team to lose every game going forward. :cry:

Edit - Added a poll.

mavs7777 · Post #2 » by **mavs7777** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:18 am

Randomize the lottery so tanking isn't as encouraged, teams over 500 that don't make the playoffs should not be in the randomized lottery.

RichardsRival3 · Post #3 » by **RichardsRival3** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:25 am

The problem with the lottery is that it is very hard to ascertain whether a team is losing games because they are tanking or because they are actually that bad.

That is what is broken, but I have no idea how to fix it.

Any system that seeks to prevent tanking will hurt teams that are actually really bad.

Any system that seeks to help really bad teams can be gamed by tanking.

mavs7777 · Post #4 » by **mavs7777** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:26 am

RichardsRival3 wrote:The problem with the lottery is that it is very hard to ascertain whether a team is losing games because they are tanking or because they are actually that bad.

That is what is broken, but I have no idea how to fix it.

Any system that seeks to prevent tanking will hurt teams that are actually really bad.

Any system that seeks to help really bad teams can be gamed by tanking.

Teams tank by making moves like GS and Charlotte have

Ronito · Post #5 » by **Ronito** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:30 am

mavs7777 wrote:
RichardsRival3 wrote:The problem with the lottery is that it is very hard to ascertain whether a team is losing games because they are tanking or because they are actually that bad.

That is what is broken, but I have no idea how to fix it.

Any system that seeks to prevent tanking will hurt teams that are actually really bad.

Any system that seeks to help really bad teams can be gamed by tanking.

Teams tank by making moves like GS and Charlotte have

Yep. And it's clear to see GSW's move here...they want to keep their pick (top 7 protected) and actually rebuild.

BSM · Post #6 » by **BSM** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:31 am

Last year Cavs were truly the worst team in the league, breaking the longest losing streak record in the major US leagues, having the lowest point game in god knows how many years, but at the end, during a decent run at end of the year, and Minnesota going for some major tanking, we ended up actually having the 2nd worst record, and the 4th overall pick.

If it wasn't for the Clippers pick winning it, we would have been stuck with whatever point guard would have looked the best at #4, so just Brandon Knight. Not good.

UnderdogKnicks · Post #7 » by **UnderdogKnicks** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:32 am

Teams in the 6-10 picks should have most chance for lottery IMO. **** the tanking teams if u want to win the lottery go actually win some games.

I'm rooting for Detroit to get #1 overall Anthony Davis in that jersey looks sexy.

Ronito · Post #8 » by **Ronito** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:32 am

BSM wrote:Last year Cavs were truly the worst team in the league, breaking the longest losing streak record in the major US leagues, having the lowest point game in god knows how many years, but at the end, during a decent run at end of the year, and Minnesota going for some major tanking, we ended up actually having the 2nd worst record, and the 4th overall pick.

If it wasn't for the Clippers pick winning it, we would have been stuck with whatever point guard would have looked the best at #4, so just Brandon Knight. Not good.

Brandon Knight instead of Kyrie Irving. Holy...

Optms · Post #9 » by **Optms** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:51 am

UnderdogKnicks wrote:Teams in the 6-10 picks should have most chance for lottery IMO. **** the tanking teams if u want to win the lottery go actually win some games.

This makes no sense. If this rule were implemented, they would all be trying to win games. There would be no tanking. The bottom 5 would get screwed yearly and be the same teams every season. Awful, awful idea.

[GR] · Post #10 » by **[GR]** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:56 am

Ronito wrote:
mavs7777 wrote:
RichardsRival3 wrote:The problem with the lottery is that it is very hard to ascertain whether a team is losing games because they are tanking or because they are actually that bad.

That is what is broken, but I have no idea how to fix it.

Any system that seeks to prevent tanking will hurt teams that are actually really bad.

Any system that seeks to help really bad teams can be gamed by tanking.

Teams tank by making moves like GS and Charlotte have

Yep. And it's clear to see GSW's move here...they want to keep their pick (top 7 protected) and actually rebuild.

In GSW's case, the trade they made is actually good for them, if Bogut stays healthy.

MeestR · Post #11 » by **MeestR** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:09 am

i heard that someone was trying to propose changing the lottery to be based off the teams record after being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

wish i knew the source so i could link it. i read it from from twitter a couple weeks ago.

spedb · Post #12 » by **spedb** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:17 am

Ronito wrote:
BSM wrote:Last year Cavs were truly the worst team in the league, breaking the longest losing streak record in the major US leagues, having the lowest point game in god knows how many years, but at the end, during a decent run at end of the year, and Minnesota going for some major tanking, we ended up actually having the 2nd worst record, and the 4th overall pick.

If it wasn't for the Clippers pick winning it, we would have been stuck with whatever point guard would have looked the best at #4, so just Brandon Knight. Not good.

Brandon Knight instead of Kyrie Irving. Holy...

you realize the cavs would have picked up the best player available, not the best point guard, right?

Blkbrd671 · Post #13 » by **Blkbrd671** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:23 am

UnderdogKnicks wrote:Teams in the 6-10 picks should have most chance for lottery IMO. **** the tanking teams if u want to win the lottery go actually win some games.

I'm rooting for Detroit to get #1 overall Anthony Davis in that jersey looks sexy.

idk who you are , but i like you

spedb · Post #14 » by **spedb** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:29 am

detroit has no chance whatsoever of getting a good draft pick. NBA wont let davis, a future all star, to join that black hole of a team.

YamiRain · Post #15 » by **YamiRain** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:30 am

Ronito wrote:
mavs7777 wrote:
RichardsRival3 wrote:The problem with the lottery is that it is very hard to ascertain whether a team is losing games because they are tanking or because they are actually that bad.

That is what is broken, but I have no idea how to fix it.

Any system that seeks to prevent tanking will hurt teams that are actually really bad.

Any system that seeks to help really bad teams can be gamed by tanking.

Teams tank by making moves like GS and Charlotte have

Yep. And it's clear to see GSW's move here...they want to keep their pick (top 7 protected) and actually rebuild.

umn, Minnesota timberwolves were the worst team last year, and were severely hosed

Floyd Hayfever · Post #16 » by **Floyd Hayfever** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:12 am

The worst team has the best chance of getting the Number 1. Everything else is irrelevant.

gethigh · Post #17 » by **gethigh** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 8:14 am

I think it works fine. Just some coincidences of who got the #1 pick each year that got the conspiracy theorists going.

Rose to Chicago (Hometown kid, Bulls were pretty much a treadmill team at that point)
Wall to Wizards (Abe Pollin dies earlier in the year, Wife shows up to lottery)
Irving to Cavs (year after LeBron leaves, they get #1 pick)

Blkbrd671 · Post #18 » by **Blkbrd671** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:44 am

spedb wrote:detroit has no chance whatsoever of getting a good draft pick. NBA wont let davis, a future all star, to join that black hole of a team.

lol, Detroits future is a lot brighter than Boston's. even without davis. your post clearly displays your ignorance

summerg · Post #19 » by **summerg** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:57 am

I don't think the system is broken. The problem is that there's too much variance in the value of basketball players. In years like 2004, Dwight Howard is probably worth more than the next 20 picks combined. It's really not fair that any one team gets him but there's nothing you can do about it. There's just no way to guarantee that the bottom call it 5 teams all get significant help in the draft.

Calvin Klein · Post #20 » by **Calvin Klein** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:58 am

Lottery should be televised. That's it.

Is the NBA Lottery System Broken?