Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat?

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Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat?

With Cavs/Love
167
72%
Still with Heat
64
28%
 
Total votes: 231

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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#101 » by mademan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:22 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
What do you mean overrating? The Heat's defense was elite from 11-13. If their opponents in the Finals and ECF were doing better on offense than they did in the RS that doesn't make Heat's defense bad. When you are playing elite teams in the 3rd or 4th round they can score on you but that doesn't mean that Heat's defense was overrated. They still had those defensive spurts where they were absolutely suffocating and that helped them win. In 14 their defense declined and they paid the price with the Spurs completely dismantling the Heat's scheme but that doesn't mean that they weren't a good defensive team capable of suffocating defense spurts from 11-13.


Quantify that. All I see is every single team outperforming their offense against the Heat. The Heats D, while great in the RS, was piss poor in the finals/semifinals. And yet every one here touts it as the reason they won (and the reason the Cavs will lose) when it CLEARLY had nothing to do with D. Their defense was a liability, not a strength.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#102 » by mademan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:28 pm

Sign5 wrote:
mademan wrote:Why do people keep overrating the Heats defense? For the last 4 years, every conference final and finals they've been in, the opposing team played better on offense against the Heat than they did in the RS with the only exception being the 2011 Bulls.

You have no clue what you're talking about. Heat's defense in the 4 years WHEN IT TRULY MATTERED has been ELITE for the most part. Sure they coasted, looked lackadaisical for some parts of those 4 years but in the grand scale the defense has been terrifyingly good.

There's a reason why some Bulls fans feel more threatened with LeBron on the Heat than with his current squad. Witnessing it first hand on the Heat turning on the switch. On the other hand, you have two players in the Cavs lineup that are subpar defensively and overall look to be non-stellar outside of LeBron. The Bulls will always be a defensive terror, they only needed offensive forces and with Rose back, Mcbuckets and Gasol they have it.

You need a good mix of defense and offense to win titles,

Spurs #3 in defense and # 6 in offense

Heat- #2 in offense #9 in defense (statistically were #2 in defense in the playoffs)

Heat- #4 in defense #8 in offense


LOL. You keep quoting the Heats defensive numbers in the RS. I already said they were great in the RS their first 2/3 years together. The fact of the matter is, that those defensive numbers didn't hold up late in the PS. How do you explain the great Miami Heat defense allowing every single opponent (save CHI 2011) in the finals/semifinals performing BETTER against them than they did in the RS?

The truth is, WHEN IT REALLY MATTERED, that's when the Heats defense really faltered. The reason they werent the dynasty they were supposed to be, why they've had soooo many game 7's and long series' against worse teams, is because their defense was hugely exploitable.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#103 » by improper » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:33 pm

heat4life wrote:Regardless, depth is still a question mark. Cavs have yet to play a game. Miami with their depth went to 4 NBA finals. Right now there are a bunch of names on paper.

I remember last season people saying Indiana had better depth than Miami. You saw how that worked out for them. Cleveland is going to learn that names on paper are meaningless unless there is true chemistry between those players. Miami dealt with that on their first season with the Big 3.

This is why contending teams love to sign veteran/older players because they are easier to incorporate into a winning situation. Young players usually have to buy into this mentality. This is why Lebron wants Ray Allen, Mike Miller, James Jones... to speed up the process.


Personally, I'd cite Miami's depth the past few years as a weakness more than a strength. They went to four Finals on the backs of their three best players, and got unsteady contributions from everyone else. Yeah, some guys (Miller, Allen, Battier) really showed up when it counted during their two Finals wins, but depth wasn't exactly a strong point of the Heat. One of the reasons LeBron likely left was that he was having to shoulder too much of the load during the regular season and was getting run down. That happened because the Heat lacked the depth to compensate for Wade missing a quarter of his games.

Obviously chemistry is important, but the Cavs project as a very deep roster. Dion Waiters and Anderson Varejao each would have probably been the fourth best player on any Heat team from the past four years. Even Tristan Thompson might be in that argument, and he'll come off the bench. Matthew Dellevadova, the Cavs' back-up point guard, is arguably better than any point guard the Heat started during LeBron's time there (seriously...the kid just knows how to play).

Add to that Mike Miller (who played all 82 games last year) and James Jones, and probably Shawn Marion too, and the Cavs just have a very deep roster. It's also possible that Joe Harris turns into a solid role-player for them. He looked good during Summer League (although I know not to overvalue that). The Cavs also have assets to improve later, something the Heat lacked after burning almost all of them to (pointlessly, as it turned out) sign-and-trade for LeBron and Bosh. They'll likely trade the Miami first to Minnesota in the Love trade, but they'll still be left with the very valuable Memphis first, either their own or Chicago's next summer, and all their own picks going forward except 2016. Oh, and that awesome Haywood contract (ten million totally non-guaranteed next summer).

The Heat were clearly a little better at the top (Love is better than Bosh, but Wade was probably the third or fourth best player in the league in 2010), but the Cavs just have better depth, plenty of youth, and the assets to improve upon it later as well.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#104 » by Sign5 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:48 pm

mademan wrote:
Sign5 wrote:
mademan wrote:Why do people keep overrating the Heats defense? For the last 4 years, every conference final and finals they've been in, the opposing team played better on offense against the Heat than they did in the RS with the only exception being the 2011 Bulls.

You have no clue what you're talking about. Heat's defense in the 4 years WHEN IT TRULY MATTERED has been ELITE for the most part. Sure they coasted, looked lackadaisical for some parts of those 4 years but in the grand scale the defense has been terrifyingly good.

There's a reason why some Bulls fans feel more threatened with LeBron on the Heat than with his current squad. Witnessing it first hand on the Heat turning on the switch. On the other hand, you have two players in the Cavs lineup that are subpar defensively and overall look to be non-stellar outside of LeBron. The Bulls will always be a defensive terror, they only needed offensive forces and with Rose back, Mcbuckets and Gasol they have it.

You need a good mix of defense and offense to win titles,

Spurs #3 in defense and # 6 in offense

Heat- #2 in offense #9 in defense (statistically were #2 in defense in the playoffs)

Heat- #4 in defense #8 in offense


LOL. You keep quoting the Heats defensive numbers in the RS. I already said they were great in the RS their first 2/3 years together. The fact of the matter is, that those defensive numbers didn't hold up late in the PS. How do you explain the great Miami Heat defense allowing every single opponent (save CHI 2011) in the finals/semifinals performing BETTER against them than they did in the RS?

The truth is, WHEN IT REALLY MATTERED, that's when the Heats defense really faltered. The reason they werent the dynasty they were supposed to be, why they've had soooo many game 7's and long series' against worse teams, is because their defense was hugely exploitable.


Again. You are clearly mistaken.

Miami was number 3 in defense in the 2010-2011 playoffs(up from their regular season ranking), #5 in 2012, #4 in 2013 (up from their regular season ranking), and #10 this past post season.

So outside of 2014 which everyone knows was a poor year for Miami defensively, they DID step it up in the playoffs. Not exactly sure where you're getting your information from but Hollinger states otherwise. Miami was an elite defense for 3/4 years that they played together, period.

Miami only played THREE game 7s in the last 4 years (Spurs and Indiana who were in ECF and finals) and against Boston who Miami was missing Bosh for 60% of the series. In fact Heat were 4-1 in majority of the series they played in the last 4 years.

So it's clear you have no clue what you're talking about.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#105 » by mademan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:05 pm

Sign5 wrote:
Again. You are clearly mistaken.

Miami was number 3 in defense in the 2010-2011 playoffs(up from their regular season ranking), #5 in 2012, #4 in 2013 (up from their regular season ranking), and #10 this past post season.

So outside of 2014 which everyone knows was a poor year for Miami defensively, they DID step it up in the playoffs. Not exactly sure where you're getting your information from but Hollinger states otherwise. Miami was an elite defense for 3/4 years that they played together, period.

Miami only played THREE game 7s in the last 4 years (Spurs and Indiana who were in ECF and finals) and against Boston who Miami was missing Bosh for 60% of the series. In fact Heat were 4-1 in majority of the series they played in the last 4 years.

So it's clear you have no clue what you're talking about.


In 2011,

Mavs RS: 109.7 ORTG
Mavs vs Heat : 110.7 ORTG

2012

Celtics RS: 101.0 ORTG
Celtics vs Heat: 103.5 ORTG

Thunder RS: 109.8 ORTG
Thunder vs Heat: 110.6 ORTG

2013

Pacers RS: 104.3 ORTG
Pacers vs Heat: 107.2 ORTG

Spurs RS: 108.3 ORTG
Spurs vs Heat: 109.3 ORTG

2014

Pacers RS: 104.1 ORTG
Pacers vs Heat: 110.2 ORTG

Spurs RS: 110.5 ORTG
Spurs vs Heat: 120.8 ORTG

Lulz, Heat were soo good defensively that they allowed their opponent to CONSISTENTLY outperform their RS offensive efficiency. How often does that happen to an elite defensive team?
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#106 » by heat4life » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:29 pm

improper wrote:
Personally, I'd cite Miami's depth the past few years as a weakness more than a strength. They went to four Finals on the backs of their three best players, and got unsteady contributions from everyone else. Yeah, some guys (Miller, Allen, Battier) really showed up when it counted during their two Finals wins, but depth wasn't exactly a strong point of the Heat. One of the reasons LeBron likely left was that he was having to shoulder too much of the load during the regular season and was getting run down. That happened because the Heat lacked the depth to compensate for Wade missing a quarter of his games.


Hmm.. maybe in 2011 the depth was questionable and in 2014, our role players just aged but in 2012 and 2013 runs, Miami had great depth. Contributions during the playoffs come from different players when needed. That is what role means. Sometimes is on offense, sometimes on defense. Miami got it done even when Wade or Bosh missed games. It was not ALL Lebron, the role players had A LOT to do with it.

improper wrote:Obviously chemistry is important, but the Cavs project as a very deep roster. Dion Waiters and Anderson Varejao each would have probably been the fourth best player on any Heat team from the past four years. Even Tristan Thompson might be in that argument, and he'll come off the bench. Matthew Dellevadova, the Cavs' back-up point guard, is arguably better than any point guard the Heat started during LeBron's time there (seriously...the kid just knows how to play).


Now you are just overrating your players. Verajao can't stay healthy and yet he might be the one player in your roster that will fit the easiest into his role.

Waiters hasn't shown that he is better than Larry Hughes when he was Lebron's running mate as a second option. Let's see what he can do first as the 4th option. Tristan Thompson is not any better than what Haslem was for the Heat in 2010 and I question if he can contribute more than what McRoberts can at this point. He is a solid rebounder - like Haslem - but you'll see his numbers drop like everyone else who plays with Lebron. That is when it becomes about BBIQ, fit and being able to play the role. Can these youngsters do it? And I won't even comment on the absurd statement about Dellavedova.

improper wrote:Add to that Mike Miller (who played all 82 games last year) and James Jones, and probably Shawn Marion too, and the Cavs just have a very deep roster. It's also possible that Joe Harris turns into a solid role-player for them. He looked good during Summer League (although I know not to overvalue that). The Cavs also have assets to improve later, something the Heat lacked after burning almost all of them to (pointlessly, as it turned out) sign-and-trade for LeBron and Bosh. They'll likely trade the Miami first to Minnesota in the Love trade, but they'll still be left with the very valuable Memphis first, either their own or Chicago's next summer, and all their own picks going forward except 2016. Oh, and that awesome Haywood contract (ten million totally non-guaranteed next summer).


Miller didn't even play much in Miami because of our depth at the time. Same with Jones so I wouldn't brag about those two as primary depth. Marion would be a nice singing if it happens (kinda like a Battier IMO). Everybody else is just end of the bench fillers.

improper wrote:The Heat were clearly a little better at the top (Love is better than Bosh, but Wade was probably the third or fourth best player in the league in 2010), but the Cavs just have better depth, plenty of youth, and the assets to improve upon it later as well.


I think the Cavs can put a nice team around Lebron in the coming seasons but the topic was about winning the East now. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs handle role players in a couple of seasons when Lebron asks and gets his $30mil per season, Love and Irving are under max, Waiters and Thompson want to get paid and you have to pay for quality free agents to fit other important roles. Yes, the future is bright but it is not going to be easy. Regardless, Cavs are in good position the rest of the league could only wish for.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#107 » by Sign5 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:41 pm

mademan wrote:
Sign5 wrote:
Again. You are clearly mistaken.

Miami was number 3 in defense in the 2010-2011 playoffs(up from their regular season ranking), #5 in 2012, #4 in 2013 (up from their regular season ranking), and #10 this past post season.

So outside of 2014 which everyone knows was a poor year for Miami defensively, they DID step it up in the playoffs. Not exactly sure where you're getting your information from but Hollinger states otherwise. Miami was an elite defense for 3/4 years that they played together, period.

Miami only played THREE game 7s in the last 4 years (Spurs and Indiana who were in ECF and finals) and against Boston who Miami was missing Bosh for 60% of the series. In fact Heat were 4-1 in majority of the series they played in the last 4 years.

So it's clear you have no clue what you're talking about.


In 2011,

Mavs RS: 109.7 ORTG
Mavs vs Heat : 110.7 ORTG

2012

Celtics RS: 101.0 ORTG
Celtics vs Heat: 103.5 ORTG

Thunder RS: 109.8 ORTG
Thunder vs Heat: 110.6 ORTG

2013

Pacers RS: 104.3 ORTG
Pacers vs Heat: 107.2 ORTG

Spurs RS: 108.3 ORTG
Spurs vs Heat: 109.3 ORTG

2014

Pacers RS: 104.1 ORTG
Pacers vs Heat: 110.2 ORTG

Spurs RS: 110.5 ORTG
Spurs vs Heat: 120.8 ORTG

Lulz, Heat were soo good defensively that they allowed their opponent to CONSISTENTLY outperform their RS offensive efficiency. How often does that happen to an elite defensive team?
So you're basically going off the fact that a team ups their play offensively in the post- season? Great way of showing the Heat doesn't ramp their defense in the playoffs! /green
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#108 » by ThereIsNoSpork » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:50 pm

He'd win the East with both teams. Better off on the Cavs though.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#109 » by mademan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:54 pm

Sign5 wrote:So you're basically going off the fact that a team ups their play offensively in the post- season? Great way of showing the Heat doesn't ramp their defense in the playoffs! /green


Lol, you realize the OPPOSITE usually happens against elite defensive teams, right? You can look at the last few years for reference,if you want. Every single champion (who was also considered a good defensive team) has held their finals/semifinals counterparts to worse offensive production than they've had in the RS (save the 10 Lakers vs PHX). Miami is the only team, in the last decade (what i've glossed over) to CONSISTENTLY allow teams to play above their heads defensively.

EVERY SINGLE NUMBER BEARS THIS OUT; the Heats defense was more of a liability than a strength.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#110 » by PaulieWal » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:54 pm

mademan wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
What do you mean overrating? The Heat's defense was elite from 11-13. If their opponents in the Finals and ECF were doing better on offense than they did in the RS that doesn't make Heat's defense bad. When you are playing elite teams in the 3rd or 4th round they can score on you but that doesn't mean that Heat's defense was overrated. They still had those defensive spurts where they were absolutely suffocating and that helped them win. In 14 their defense declined and they paid the price with the Spurs completely dismantling the Heat's scheme but that doesn't mean that they weren't a good defensive team capable of suffocating defense spurts from 11-13.


Quantify that. All I see is every single team outperforming their offense against the Heat. The Heats D, while great in the RS, was piss poor in the finals/semifinals. And yet every one here touts it as the reason they won (and the reason the Cavs will lose) when it CLEARLY had nothing to do with D. Their defense was a liability, not a strength.


The Heat also outperformed their offensive ratings against the same tough defenses (except for the Spurs in 13). My point still stands. When you play elite teams they will score more. Take Boston in 2012. They were the best defense in 2012. The Heat still outperformed their offense against them in the ECF as did Boston against the Heat but they were both still very good defensive teams. To say that their defense was a "liability" is laughable.

Going by the way you are analyzing this which I don't agree with:

Miami's ORTG RS 106.6
Miami's ORTG in ECF 108.9

Does that mean Boston was not a good defense and that their defense was a liability?
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#111 » by fast-break » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:26 pm

The answer is probably both.

The next 4 years? It's the Cavs every time.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#112 » by mademan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:52 pm

PaulieWal wrote:The Heat also outperformed their offensive ratings against the same tough defenses (except for the Spurs in 13). My point still stands. When you play elite teams they will score more. Take Boston in 2012. They were the best defense in 2012. The Heat still outperformed their offense against them in the ECF as did Boston against the Heat but they were both still very good defensive teams. To say that their defense was a "liability" is laughable.

Going by the way you are analyzing this which I don't agree with:

Miami's ORTG RS 106.6
Miami's ORTG in ECF 108.9

Does that mean Boston was not a good defense and that their defense was a liability?


It means the Heat were an incredible offensive team (which has been verified over the past 4 years). When mediocre offenses (like 2011 Celts/2012 and 2013 Pacers) outperform themselves against the Heat, you can't say it happened because they were an incredbile offensive team.

And that was also just 1 series. Look at the Celtics body of work from 08-12 and they've consistently held teams far below their regular offensive production. The Heat have been the exact opposite. There's obviously exceptions (like vs Chi 2011) for both teams.

Look back at the 09 and 10 Lakers, 08 Celtics, 07 Spurs, 06 Heat (all the past champs)...go look back at any past known defensive teams. How many of them consistently allowed teams to outperform themselves offensively?
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#113 » by KyleH186 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:58 pm

You always take the known quantity versus the unknown for something like this. The Heat may have lost in the Finals but they steamrolled through the Eastern Confererence, and the only team that gave them a bit of trouble in the EC (The Pacers) are now a shell of themself. It should be a huge clue that most Bulls fans are happier to see LeBron on the Cavs for 2014-2015 than the Heat. Long-term is a different story obviously.

Wade's demise has been greatly exaggerated. He is still better than everyone on the Cavs except Love and LeBron. I think Bosh is still better than Kyrie also, but that is debatable.

Also Ray Allen wouldn't have thought twice about re-signing with Miami if LeBron stayed so you have to factor him into that squad. We might have been in the running for some other free agents at discounts as well.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#114 » by mprapss » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:12 pm

Have not heard this mentioned before (still to be proven out as cavs have not played 1 game together yet)

Cavs are better constructed than the heat were specifically as a function of taking advantage of LBJ.

- Wade in 1st two years was top 10 talent, but never really a great compliment skill wise with LBJ. Both need the ball and Wade was always a poor outside shooter. Not a not on wade but just that his skill set does not make him the ideal running mate for LBJ

- Bosh game was ball dominant and kudos to him for transforming his game. He did it becasue he was not a good fit based on his play for the raptors.

That said look at the Cavs

- Love is the ultimate example of what they were trying to turn Bosh into. in theory he will be an excellent fit.

- Kyrie does have a shot that has to be respected.

Miami did it on pure talent with the bulk of that talent being LBJ. The Cavs certainly have the talent but more importantly the skillsets are more complimentary for the big 3 than they were with the heat.

Also regarding defense, and how love/Kyrie are horrendous. They played for talent deprived teams that were mostly lottery bound. The heat defense was great but its based on the playoffs where the intensity and preparation is different.

Bosh was not known as an elite defender before joining miami and would expect same defensive transformation from love/kyrie as the games matter more and its emphasized more.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#115 » by Run DLC » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:12 pm

mademan wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:The Heat also outperformed their offensive ratings against the same tough defenses (except for the Spurs in 13). My point still stands. When you play elite teams they will score more. Take Boston in 2012. They were the best defense in 2012. The Heat still outperformed their offense against them in the ECF as did Boston against the Heat but they were both still very good defensive teams. To say that their defense was a "liability" is laughable.

Going by the way you are analyzing this which I don't agree with:

Miami's ORTG RS 106.6
Miami's ORTG in ECF 108.9

Does that mean Boston was not a good defense and that their defense was a liability?


It means the Heat were an incredible offensive team (which has been verified over the past 4 years). When mediocre offenses (like 2011 Celts/2012 and 2013 Pacers) outperform themselves against the Heat, you can't say it happened because they were an incredbile offensive team.

And that was also just 1 series. Look at the Celtics body of work from 08-12 and they've consistently held teams far below their regular offensive production. The Heat have been the exact opposite. There's obviously exceptions (like vs Chi 2011) for both teams.

Look back at the 09 and 10 Lakers, 08 Celtics, 07 Spurs, 06 Heat (all the past champs)...go look back at any past known defensive teams. How many of them consistently allowed teams to outperform themselves offensively?



Yes, the defense was inconsistent at times, but even sometimes when the defense was consistent, Heat had trouble keeping opposing teams from scoring due to the fact that they were a mediocre rebounding team that always gave up second chance points.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#116 » by improper » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:12 pm

KyleH186 wrote:Also Ray Allen wouldn't have thought twice about re-signing with Miami if LeBron stayed so you have to factor him into that squad. We might have been in the running for some other free agents at discounts as well.


To be fair, if the Cavs already had Love I think Allen would have signed by now. He's waiting for the trade to be official.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#117 » by Run DLC » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:18 pm

Aside giving up open 3's and not having a strong interior defense, the Heat defense was solid throughout the last four years. What really hurt the team against mediocre offensive teams was second chance opportunities.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#118 » by Tave » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:20 pm

The answer to the OP's very narrow question is the Heat, easily, for no other reason than Lebron-to-Cleveland created another legit Eastern playoff team. In other words, Lebron never had to face Miami when he played in Miami and does now. He will need to make it through them in addition to the other usual suspects. If Lebron was in Miami, it would just be the usual suspects.

However the goal isn't to make it out of the East but to win the championship, and in that respect the Cavs are in a better position to compete over the next few years.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#119 » by Run DLC » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:21 pm

Rebounding does make a difference, especially defensive rebounding.
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Re: Better chance for LeBron to win East: Cavs/Love or Heat? 

Post#120 » by DuckIII » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:29 pm

Tave wrote:The answer to the OP's very narrow question is the Heat, easily, for no other reason than Lebron-to-Cleveland created another legit Eastern playoff team. In other words, Lebron never had to face Miami when he played in Miami and does now. He will need to make it through them in addition to the other usual suspects. If Lebron was in Miami, it would just be the usual suspects.


Miami without LeBron is just another of the usual suspects. The Cavs this year will have the same thing to contend with in the East that Miami had the last few years: One legit challenge. This year it will be the Bulls. No one outside of Cleveland or Chicago matters in the East this year.

And the answer to this is the Cavs. LeBron timed his Miami departure perfectly and landed very softly.
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