Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Nuggets

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:47 pm

Denver Nuggets

Projected Lineup
-----------------------------

PG - Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson, Erick Green
SG - Aaron Afflalo, Randy Foye, Gary Harris
SF - Danilo Galinari, Wilson Chandler, Quincy Miller
PF - Kenneth Faried, JJ Hickson, Darell Arthur
C - Timofey Mozgov, JaVale McGee, Jusuf Nurkic

Trade Block: Lots! Foye could be moved to make room for Harris. Hickson could be moved to make room for Arthur, Mozgov or McGee could be moved to make room for Nurkic. Problem is that the Nuggets are all ready pretty well set at every position. It's going to be hard to get an upgrade and more depth or draft picks aren't that attractive. It'll take a special deal, likely one to bring in a difference maker to make much sense.

Position Battle: Center. Mozgov vs. McGee is pretty up in the air by my estimation and I think Nurkic is a very good prospect as well that could worm his way into the discussion. I expect it to be a situation where fans prefer the 3rd string quarterback.

Mystery Man: Brian Shaw. Can he get the most out of this collection of players?

Floppymusings:
I am projecting a return to form (in the +- sense) for Afflalo, health for Gallinari, Lawson, and mostly healthy for McGee. In other words, we are rounding up here. That gets the Nuggets to 42 wins in the still-tough west. The main problem the Nuggets have is lack of a premier player after Lawson. Someone else is going to have to be a borderline allstar or better for the Nuggets to get over the hump. Iggy is still massively missed.

Jazzfanramblings: George Karl was the 2012-13 coach of the year. He led the Nuggets to a 57 and 25 record. I thought he was brilliant. He saw a couple of things in his favor. #1 the high altitude of playing home games in Denver. #2 he had a very deep team. So, he decided to make both of those factors work in his favor playing a ton of guys and forcing other teams to run in the high altitude. It was very effective. Denver rewarded the reigning coach of the year by giving him his walking papers. In the words of George Karl, "... I think it's very stupid, and since then, I don't understand it." That sums up my feelings on the firing about as well as can be done.

So, that's ancient history now. We have Brian Shaw in place. So far he's off to a 36 and 46 record with the Nuggets. It's not very fair to judge him by that one season though, Denver was absolutely decimated with injuries. But, now they are back, they are healthy, they've added a couple very good players in this years draft in Harris and Nurkic (in my opinion) and a huge upgrade to SG in bringing home Afflalo. The time for excuses is now over. Can Shaw get this healthy and improved Nuggets roster back to the stratosphere of 57 wins? Maybe. I think George Karl probably could. He has shown it. Lets give Shaw a chance to prove the Nuggets not 'very stupid' this season.

Projected Record - 42/40

Post #2 » by **jazzfan1971** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:48 pm

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Scalabrine · Post #3 » by **Scalabrine** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:07 pm

I think the Nuggets are better than 42/40, unless you are factoring in injuries.

I also think that you forgot to mention that the Nuggets didnt only lose Karl but they lost Iguodala for nothing, traded Koufos (who started 81 games), and McGee and Gallinari didnt play at all last year due to injuries, Nate was also gone for most of the season. They also had some turmoil with Andre Miller, who has been with the Nuggets for a long time, who got sent home. Thats 5 key players and the coach of a 57-25 team that all didnt play last year. Pretty significant!

Players I could see the Nuggets going after with some of their pieces:
Roy Hibbert (Shaw used to coach him, solid fit in the triangle)
Greg Monroe (or Josh Smith?)
Tyreke Evans
Al Horford

I just dont see many "superstars" available and until then, they are loaded with depth. If there entire team was healthy they could easily be 13 men deep.

Post #4 » by **floppymoose** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:59 pm

Scalabrine wrote:I think the Nuggets are better than 42/40, unless you are factoring in injuries.

I also think that you forgot to mention that the Nuggets didnt only lose Karl but they lost Iguodala for nothing, traded Koufos (who started 81 games), and McGee and Gallinari didnt play at all last year due to injuries, Nate was also gone for most of the season. They also had some turmoil with Andre Miller, who has been with the Nuggets for a long time, who got sent home. Thats 5 key players and the coach of a 57-25 team that all didnt play last year. Pretty significant!

It's hugely significant. Especially Iggy. And Iggy isn't back.

skywalker33 · Post #5 » by **skywalker33** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:20 pm

floppymoose wrote:
Scalabrine wrote:I think the Nuggets are better than 42/40, unless you are factoring in injuries.

I also think that you forgot to mention that the Nuggets didnt only lose Karl but they lost Iguodala for nothing, traded Koufos (who started 81 games), and McGee and Gallinari didnt play at all last year due to injuries, Nate was also gone for most of the season. They also had some turmoil with Andre Miller, who has been with the Nuggets for a long time, who got sent home. Thats 5 key players and the coach of a 57-25 team that all didnt play last year. Pretty significant!

It's hugely significant. Especially Iggy. And Iggy isn't back.

True, but we do have AAA back. While not as ferocious as a defender as Iggy, he will be better on the offensive end than the Mole was.

Post #6 » by **The Rebel** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:38 pm

floppymoose wrote:
Scalabrine wrote:I think the Nuggets are better than 42/40, unless you are factoring in injuries.

I also think that you forgot to mention that the Nuggets didnt only lose Karl but they lost Iguodala for nothing, traded Koufos (who started 81 games), and McGee and Gallinari didnt play at all last year due to injuries, Nate was also gone for most of the season. They also had some turmoil with Andre Miller, who has been with the Nuggets for a long time, who got sent home. Thats 5 key players and the coach of a 57-25 team that all didnt play last year. Pretty significant!

It's hugely significant. Especially Iggy. And Iggy isn't back.

Igoudala was far from the most important factor in why the were struggling last year, by far the biggest loss was Gallo who was their best player before he was injured.

Post #7 » by **floppymoose** » Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:53 pm

Then you are likely going to disagree with the predictions of any rapm-based model, since Gallinari, while good in that model, is not at Iggy's level.

skywalker33 · Post #8 » by **skywalker33** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:28 am

floppymoose wrote:Then you are likely going to disagree with the predictions of any rapm-based model, since Gallinari, while good in that model, is not at Iggy's level.

So, how do you compare chocolate and strawberry ? Which one's better....?

tayottt · Post #9 » by **tayottt** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:49 am

This is probably the most accurate preview you guys have done. The Nuggets were torn asunder by injuries last season. With the return of several rotation pieces and a year of acclimating to the notoriously slow-starting Triangle Offense under their belt I think the Nuggets are poised to get back above .500. Faried really began to thrive as a post presence by the end of last season and Ty Lawson has been one of the more underrated PGs in the league for a while now. I like the way the Nuggets drafted (Nurkic/Harris) and they seem to be one of the top five deepest teams in the league.

The only thing I disagree with is your high praise for George Karl. Karl was an innovative offense coach and managed to leverage the offensive talents of his players to produce wins but I don't value the creative offensive coaches as much because in the postseason the playbook shrinks and the games come down to defense, half court execution, and rotations (all of which I feel Karl's teams have struggled with his entire career). I can understand bringing Shaw to instill a culture of defense. Also, Denver's problems were not limited to injuries last year. I think the Nuggets have struggled mightily in the front office since the departure of Masai Ujiri. Letting Kofous and Miller go and then spending money on J.J Hickson didn't make much sense to me. It was also painful to lose their best defensive player in Iguodala.

This will definitely be an interesting year for Shaw. Can he get the Javale/Mozgov/Hickson/Faried/Gallo front court to defend? Can the triangle actually work with the personnel? How will he utilize his rookies?

Should be fun to see.

skywalker33 · Post #10 » by **skywalker33** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:46 am

tayottt wrote:This is probably the most accurate preview you guys have done. The Nuggets were torn asunder by injuries last season. With the return of several rotation pieces and a year of acclimating to the notoriously slow-starting Triangle Offense under their belt I think the Nuggets are poised to get back above .500. Faried really began to thrive as a post presence by the end of last season and Ty Lawson has been one of the more underrated PGs in the league for a while now. I like the way the Nuggets drafted (Nurkic/Harris) and they seem to be one of the top five deepest teams in the league.

The only thing I disagree with is your high praise for George Karl. Karl was an innovative offense coach and managed to leverage the offensive talents of his players to produce wins but I don't value the creative offensive coaches as much because in the postseason the playbook shrinks and the games come down to defense, half court execution, and rotations (all of which I feel Karl's teams have struggled with his entire career). I can understand bringing Shaw to instill a culture of defense. Also, Denver's problems were not limited to injuries last year. I think the Nuggets have struggled mightily in the front office since the departure of Masai Ujiri. Letting Kofous and Miller go and then spending money on J.J Hickson didn't make much sense to me. It was also painful to lose their best defensive player in Iguodala.

This will definitely be an interesting year for Shaw. Can he get the Javale/Mozgov/Hickson/Faried/Gallo front court to defend? Can the triangle actually work with the personnel? How will he utilize his rookies?

Should be fun to see.

Don't believe Shaw's is running the Triangle, didn't last year...but you're right, will be fun to watch !

Post #11 » by **The Rebel** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:59 am

floppymoose wrote:Then you are likely going to disagree with the predictions of any rapm-based model, since Gallinari, while good in that model, is not at Iggy's level.

Of course I am going to disagree with a plus minus model, Gallinari was backed up by Igoudala primarily and occasionally by WIlson Chandler, Igoudala was backed up by Corey Brewer, do you not think that makes a difference in any plus minus model? Especially 1 that says a full season is to small of a sample size to even judge a player? Not to mention when they calculate RAPM it is partially based off the previous seasons numbers, so a young improving player is hurt by the numbers while veterans who have leveled off or are declining are actually helped by the numbers.

Fact is in every other advanced stat (outside of steal and assist %) Gallo was clearly better in 2012-2013 than Igoudala was, and that includes the eye test considering I watched every single game.

Post #12 » by **floppymoose** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:04 am

The Rebel wrote:
floppymoose wrote:Then you are likely going to disagree with the predictions of any rapm-based model, since Gallinari, while good in that model, is not at Iggy's level.

Of course I am going to disagree with a plus minus model, Gallinari was backed up by Igoudala primarily and occasionally by WIlson Chandler, Igoudala was backed up by Corey Brewer, do you not think that makes a difference in any plus minus model?

I'm on a phone and can't type a lot. The short story is your comment above does not apply to the approach. I suggest reading up on what RAPM is.

Post #13 » by **StocktonShorts** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:18 am

skywalker33 wrote:
floppymoose wrote:Then you are likely going to disagree with the predictions of any rapm-based model, since Gallinari, while good in that model, is not at Iggy's level.

So, how do you compare chocolate and strawberry ? Which one's better....?

Chocolate. Duh.

I can't stand people who don't get advanced metrics.

DaFan334 · Post #14 » by **DaFan334** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:55 am

A couple points here:

-If George Karl is such a good coach, why doesn't he have a job yet with so many openings since he was let go? He really hasn't even been considered for any openings.

-Advanced stats can say all they want about Iggy, but I feel like the majority of the people who watched all of the Nuggets games that he played in would all say that he was incredibly inconsistant with Denver and never quite fit with the rest of the team. Thats where I don't feel like the difference between a rotation of him and Corey Brewer is much better than a rotation of Afflalo and Foye. That wasn't the big difference between the Nuggets before the Iggy trade and after trade. The bigger difference was the growth of the younger players, in particular Lawson and Gallo.

-No mention of Farieds growth seems fairly ignorant. His name didn't even come up in this preview! Beyond how well he did with Team USA this summer, which could be contributed to the competition and perhaps the talent around him, after the All Star break last year he was a completely different player. Prior to the break, Shaw did not trust him in the post with the ball or run plays for him. Once he gained Shaw's trust, Faried averaged 18ppg and 10rpg in the 2nd half of the year while building a very good post game. This summer his energy showed on the defensive end of the floor better than it ever has, which has to make you think that should carry over into the NBA season. He is turning into a near All-Star caliber player in part because of his great work ethic. He also seems to be developing into a leader and guy that gets everyone around him to play harder which can be a great thing for a team as competitively deep as the Nuggets are this year.

-Depth is huge in the regular season and the Nuggets have one of the deepest, if not the deepest all around team in the league. When injuries come into play over a long season, having guys who can fill in is huge and a major reason the Nuggets have been so successful in the post-Melo era. Last year the Injuries were too much to overcome because they were so huge, but as long as the majority of the team can stay relatively healthy, they can hold stong in an 82 game season. This rarely helps in the post season, but they may pull out a lot more regular season wins that people expect simply because of how deep they are.

Post #15 » by **floppymoose** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:35 am

Farried's whole season from last year is factored in. If he was a beast in the second half, then that's in the numbers.

Darren_Errman · Post #16 » by **Darren_Errman** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:50 am

Nuggets fans in 2012: Iggy is better than Affalo on both ends.

Nuggets fans in 2014: Affalo is better than Iggy offensively.

AussieBuck · Post #17 » by **AussieBuck** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:43 am

Nobody hates advanced stats like Nuggets fans. Good luck Floppy.

dunkman04 · Post #18 » by **dunkman04** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:08 pm

The key for the Nuggets this season will be defense. Last season, mostly due to the injuries, their offensive rating dropped to 106 from the 110 they had during the 57 win season. I would expect that to be much closer to 110 this year assuming guys stay healthy. However, their defensive rating went from 105 to 108. If they stay at 108 and the ORtg is something like 109 then the near .500 projections are going to be very accurate. If Shaw can get them to buy in and bring it back down to 105 or 104 then they have a shot at the playoffs.

As to the Iggy discussion, I think a big part of what he brought to the table aside from defense was his playmaking. The Warriors were making a huge mistake running that garbage offense they had last season and they could really make a leap this year if 80% of their sets aren't Curry at the top of the key with 2 guys on him. Yes, he's good enough to make it work a lot of the time but that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

skywalker33 · Post #19 » by **skywalker33** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:15 pm

AussieBuck wrote:Nobody hates advanced stats like Nuggets fans. Good luck Floppy.

Yeah, I guess we do, but it's better than the Bucks fans who have to argue who they going to pick with their next lottery pick.....Good luck Jason Kidd :lol:

Fresh_Prince12 · Post #20 » by **Fresh_Prince12** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:34 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:tor - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1346252
ind - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1346016
min - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345879
noh - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345540
bk- viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345695
nyk - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345450
det - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343829
cha - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343704
olr - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1343074
bos - viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1342628
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Those links aren't working. I want to see what you have for the bucks