Andre Roberson RPM >> Derozan, Iguodala, Kobe, Wade etc

[bondom34]

He is what he is. A fantastic defender, but I don't want him shooting the ball unless its a layup. To be honest, he's been a really pleasant surprise this season along with Lamb's play of late. Hoping they both continue to play this well.

[ManualRam]

Outside of the three point shooting Roberson's been efficient offensively. I know you were shocked that he's shooting 67% from 2-point range, among the league leaders. It's okay, we can't all know everything, especially about the younger role players in the league.

The eye test and the stats discredit most of what you have to say. He's beaten his man numerous times with a quick dribble drive move that puts his defender off balance. And his assist to turnover ratio is already better than Tony Allen's.

Also the ball skills don't really matter for his role. KD' and WB are going to have the ball in their hands. Roberson just has to catch the alley-oop or snag the offensive rebound or slash quickly to the rim when there's an opening. The elements of a solid offensive game are already there.

he's a garbageman for a wing, a spoon fed garbageman at that since 80% of the paltry buckets that he gets are assisted. what does that 67% consist of? assisted dunks and layups cuz it sure ain't jumpers. away from the cup he's shooting 17%, 12% on jumpers. the elements of a garbageman are there. that is not "solid" for a perimeter player.
offensively he's a stiff of a perimeter player which is why he struggled hard as a SF his last yr in college and otherwise played PF up until then.

[greenandgold]

So he's basically Thabo Sefolosha without a jumper.

Nah, Thabo was never efficient at the hoop. This season Thabo's shooting 43% from 2-point range. That's not 67%!

Of the guys who have taken more than 20 shots this season only DeAndre Jordan, Brandon Wright, Jerome Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca have shot better than Roberson's 67% from 2-point range.

All of those guys are centers. It's highly unusual for a shooting guard to finish this well around the rim. I understand Roberson has to do it all season and at a higher usage rate. Consistency and growth is required. But there are positive glimmers in both the stats and the eye test. When Andre Roberson gets to the rim he's flushing it home.

[Kabookalu]

So he's basically Thabo Sefolosha without a jumper.

Nah, Thabo was never efficient at the hoop. This season Thabo's shooting 43% from 2-point range. That's not 67%!

Of the guys who have taken more than 20 shots this season only DeAndre Jordan, Brandon Wright, Jerome Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca have shot better than Roberson's 67% from 2-point range.

All of those guys are centers. It's highly unusual for a shooting guard to finish this well around the rim. I understand Roberson has to do it all season and at a higher usage rate. Consistency and growth is required. But there are positive glimmers in both the stats and the eye test. When Andre Roberson gets to the rim he's flushing it home.

You're putting an awful lot of stock in a 20 game sample size when no one knows who he is yet.

[greenandgold]

Outside of the three point shooting Roberson's been efficient offensively. I know you were shocked that he's shooting 67% from 2-point range, among the league leaders. It's okay, we can't all know everything, especially about the younger role players in the league.

The eye test and the stats discredit most of what you have to say. He's beaten his man numerous times with a quick dribble drive move that puts his defender off balance. And his assist to turnover ratio is already better than Tony Allen's.

Also the ball skills don't really matter for his role. KD' and WB are going to have the ball in their hands. Roberson just has to catch the alley-oop or snag the offensive rebound or slash quickly to the rim when there's an opening. The elements of a solid offensive game are already there.

he's a garbageman for a wing, a spoon fed garbageman at that since 80% of the paltry buckets that he gets are assisted. what does that 67% consist of? assisted dunks and layups cuz it sure ain't jumpers. away from the cup he's shooting 17%, 12% on jumpers. the elements of a garbageman are there. that is not "solid" for a perimeter player.
offensively he's a stiff of a perimeter player which is why he struggled hard as a SF his last yr in college and otherwise played PF up until then.

If it's so easy to be a garbageman then why doesn't every role player shoot 67%? Because it's not actually easy. It takes a lot of timing and agility to sprint in from the corner, grab the rebound and dunk it in one motion (Roberson's signature move).

It's not just assisted dunks and layups. I told you he dribble drived to the hoop 11 times and got 9 buckets. Small sample size but it did happen! Watch the video on stats.nba.com

Speaking of college Roberson shot 56% from 2-point range, and 35% from 3-point range, and 56% TS for his college career. Those are better offensive efficiency numbers than he's been given credit for. He was a productive offensive player in college and he'll be a productive offensive player in the NBA.

[greenandgold]

One more nice thing Roberson does: he passes the ball. Roberson's the designated inbounder on half-court inbound plays, and has thrown some crisp passes for assists.

Roberson's assist ratio is 8th among all shooting guards who have played at least 10 games, right after Kirk Hinrich and tied with Kyle Korver. He's a low usage role player on offense but he gets the ball moving.

Why does Roberson's offensive activity matter? Because he's the big swing guy for OKC defensively. When he's on the court the opponent's offense turns into the Philly 76ers (worst in the league). When he's off the court OKC's opponents are league average on offense. OKC has to keep him on the court.

Now I'll shut up about this random role player. Thanks for the tolerance.

[Archerbro]

Interesting sidenote,

Roberson's dad played with Dirk on the same team (I'm pretty sure it was in Germany) when Dirk was still young.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

stats test if you've only attempted 27 shots is it fairly easy to hit a few more shots than a typical player and thus be among the league leaders in two point percentage? Still overall careerwise he's at 60% on not many shots which is pretty good.

[Sixerscan]

Yeah he's played well.

Don't know why people get so worked up about a stat not matching conventional wisdom. Small sample size bros.

[Takingbaconback]

Not surprised at all, he is a very impressive prospect

[franktony]

Danny Green 3rd in RPM and 3rd in DRPM

Can't say that I am surprised. He is a beast defensively but most people haven't realized it yet

Defensively, he can be in the same conversation among the elite defenders in the NBA. Add to that elite 3p shooting and you have a very nice player.

Hopefully the Spurs will be able to keep him next season, but I expect to see him getting some really high offers.

[greenandgold]

Roberson now leads all shooting guards in DRPM. And leads all perimeter players in DBPM. All the advanced stats indicate he's having a profound effect on OKC's defense.

This young man is the game changer for OKC. When he's in the game the opponent offense just gets stuck in mud (opponent offensive rating of 94.7)

[StocktonShorts]

It's hard to argue a point, rebound, assist, steal or block. Even then, they don't tell the whole story.

Let me try:

Rebound: Many defensive rebounds aren't contested at all and usually go to the tallest guy closest to the basket or Lance Stephenson. I'd argue a contested rebound is worth a lot more than an uncontested one.

Assist: These are VERY subjective. There is statistical evidence that some scorekeepers are much more generous in handing out assists than others. As with rebounds, not all assists are equal in value. Lazily swinging the ball around the perimeter to a shooter who hits a contested three can get you an assist; so can "unselfishly" handing the ball to a teammate on a 2-0 break. Compare those with a point guard drawing the defense and finding a big man for an easy layup.

Steal: Some steals are just boneheaded passes, but someone has to get the steal. Sometimes one player deflects the ball and another player grabs it. Who gets the steal? Usually the guy who deflected it. Doesn't the other guy deserve credit, too?

Block: Blocking the ball and winning possession is vastly superior to swatting a shot out of bounds.

[Loud_city]

So he's basically Thabo Sefolosha without a jumper.

But a better defender and knows he can't shoot.

[jbk1234]

Danny Green 3rd in RPM and 3rd in DRPM

Can't say that I am surprised. He is a beast defensively but most people haven't realized it yet

Defensively, he can be in the same conversation among the elite defenders in the NBA. Add to that elite 3p shooting and you have a very nice player.

Hopefully the Spurs will be able to keep him next season, but I expect to see him getting some really high offers.

But he's limited offensively in that if you run him off the line and make him put the ball on the floor, his handle is shaky and problems arise. The Spurs are a system-oriented team and they use him perfectly. But he's hardly the third best player at his position. If he was traded to a team where he had to handle the ball, or he had to create, it would be a mess. Danny Green is the perfect example of why advanced stats have their limits in communicating a player's value.

[jbk1234]

People who tout or dismiss advanced stats completely don't understand them. Advanced stats are an awesome third metric when taken in context and used in conjunction with the other two measures - the eye-test and the box score.

This. I don't know whether you consider "fit" as part of the eye-test but I would include that as an important factor as well

[KD35Brah]

Roberson now leads all shooting guards in DRPM. And leads all perimeter players in DBPM. All the advanced stats indicate he's having a profound effect on OKC's defense.

This young man is the game changer for OKC. When he's in the game the opponent offense just gets stuck in mud (opponent offensive rating of 94.7)

Post this in the OKC Regular season thread too.

[og15]

It's hard to argue a point, rebound, assist, steal or block. Even then, they don't tell the whole story.

Let me try:

Rebound: Many defensive rebounds aren't contested at all and usually go to the tallest guy closest to the basket or Lance Stephenson. I'd argue a contested rebound is worth a lot more than an uncontested one.

Assist: These are VERY subjective. There is statistical evidence that some scorekeepers are much more generous in handing out assists than others. As with rebounds, not all assists are equal in value. Lazily swinging the ball around the perimeter to a shooter who hits a contested three can get you an assist; so can "unselfishly" handing the ball to a teammate on a 2-0 break. Compare those with a point guard drawing the defense and finding a big man for an easy layup.

Steal: Some steals are just boneheaded passes, but someone has to get the steal. Sometimes one player deflects the ball and another player grabs it. Who gets the steal? Usually the guy who deflected it. Doesn't the other guy deserve credit, too?

Block: Blocking the ball and winning possession is vastly superior to swatting a shot out of bounds.

Points might be one of the easiest. Not all point totals are the same. 24 points on 8/24 FG, 2/6 3PT and 6/7 FT is definitely not the same as 24 points on 8/16 FG, 2/5 3PT and 6/7 FT.

[wallflower]

which is why i dont take most advanced stats seriously

Why? Take a look at the stat, adjust for minutes, and voila, the stat will show you that Thompson, Harden and Butler are in the top 3, which perfectly matches the eye test and the other advanced stats as well. Then you would have players like Korver, Courtney Lee, Matthews and Monta Ellis, all playing more than 30 minutes, and all of them are obviously in the top 10. There is nothing wrong with that stat, and it also shows that Roberson is quite a defender, which again, matches the eye test if I'm not mistaken (I don't watch a whole lot of OKC).

nvm

[og15]

I think people tend to forget part of what stats and advanced stats and whatever else do is to help test and question the eye test. Even the simple stats, imagine we didn't have those? People's subjective view of impact without any stats would be quite interesting. Streaks would stand out more, a guy who scores 6 points a quarter and is consistent won't look as "good" as a guy who scores 2, 8, 2, 12 points because the big quarter will stand out.

We have situations where one person's eye test is way off from another person's, so it helps to give a more objective measure to add to the discussion. Or when people are trying differentiate small differences between similar level players, and it really just becomes about preferences and biases. This or that stat might not "solve" it, but it adds something more concrete to the discussion, and something to take into account. In addition stats help to give a starting point for analysis since it is hard for most people to watch multiple games of multiple players in an analytic manner since most people have lives.