What's Zach LaVine's ceiling?

[Jody Smokz]

The only similarities that Lavine and Klay share are that they are both 6'6" and extremely light skinned.

[Northern hoops]

The only similarities that Lavine and Klay share are that they are both 6'6" and extremely light skinned.

now obviously Klay is the much better player, but Zach's 2nd year at age 20, is arguably better than Klay's 2nd year at age 22.

[urgal]

Prime Monta Ellis with slightly better 3pt shooting?

Well, first off he's at least two inches taller than Ellis.

Secondly, he already seems to be a not just slightly, but way better three point shooter considering Monta
has a career 3pt FG% of 31.4 %

Not quite the comparison I'd go with, also considering his better athletecism.

[Wolf_Cry]

Dammit as someone who doesn't like LaVine, I have to say too many fans hate on the guy. He's definitely shown improvement since the all star game. Fans are weird though. Case in point- given that Zach and Booker's rookie stat lines are virtually the same, one is projected to be Jamal Crawford while the other to be Jesus Shuttlesworth. Both 13th overall pick, both given PT because of injuries, both came in at age 19, both expected to be raw, except one is uber athletic and one is a shooter. Truth be told, I think fans want Zach to fail so they can justify their Gerald Green comparison.

[coletrain11]

He honestly is not that good.

[Jody Smokz]

If Lavine was darkskinned the comparison would have never been made. That's the problem. He plays nothing like Klay.

The only similarities that Lavine and Klay share are that they are both 6'6" and extremely light skinned.

now obviously Klay is the much better player, but Zach's 2nd year at age 20, is arguably better than Klay's 2nd year at age 22.

[MrBigShot]

Jamal Crawford with a better all around game and better scoring ability.

[tarantism]

Prime Monta Ellis with slightly better 3pt shooting?

Well, first off he's at least two inches taller than Ellis.

Secondly, he already seems to be a not just slightly, but way better three point shooter considering Monta
has a career 3pt FG% of 31.4 %

Not quite the comparison I'd go with, also considering his better athletecism.

Height non withstanding, prime Monta was an incredible athlete. Also a borderline all-star as a volume scorer with GSW. I think he shot the three ball better with us too, but I don't have the stats in front of me and could be way off base there. Just from memory he was an excellent mid-range shooter though, especially in his first few years.

[EvanZ]

11'10", maybe 12'?

[rumdiary]

I feel like he's a potential franchise player. I feel like he will one day go back to LA and sign with the Lakers and post 25/5/5 or something. I feel like he will take after Kobe more than Wiggins, if those three meet up this Summer for some training.

Finding footage of LaVine at UCLA was very difficult in the leadup to the 2014 Draft. Steve Alford defied all logic and kept him benched through most of LaVine's freshman season, a lot of games he had single-digit minutes and all I could find were game highlights that often didn't feature Zach. Nepotism is the word that comes to mind.

Despite all that it was clear to me that there were five guys* in 2014 with "God Tier" potential and LaVine was one of them. LaVine showed some tremendous footwork, vast offensive repertoire and of course off-the-charts athleticism as well as dunking ability - dat windmill at Missouri was the first highlight I ever saw of him... dayymn. I really think he's a Top 5 dunker of all time, up there with Vince and MJ.

On top of that what was impressive during LaVine's college years, and still is impressive, is his work ethic along with his natural ability. He's no Gerald Green.


* My five guys were: Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum and LaVine (with Smart and Randle following closely behind). People will laugh at my inclusion of Exum, but they didn't before the draft and I am afterall talking realistic potential.

[sip]

He has a higher ceiling than Andrew Wiggins. He is a far more well rounded player than Wiggins and could score even more if given the opportunity.

[Northern hoops]

If Lavine was darkskinned the comparison would have never been made. That's the problem. He plays nothing like Klay.

The only similarities that Lavine and Klay share are that they are both 6'6" and extremely light skinned.

now obviously Klay is the much better player, but Zach's 2nd year at age 20, is arguably better than Klay's 2nd year at age 22.

i was talking more in terms of production, but as far as play style they both have smooth strokes, can put points up in a hurry and play better off the ball and the Wolves have been using Zach in more Klay-like action lately

And I was 100% not taking skin color into my comparison, that's pretty laughable

[TheZachAttack]

In this thread is a lot of people supremely underrating Zach Lavine, both his potential and the type of player he is now. A lot of the statements about Lavine would be correct if said at the beginning of the season...before Zach had defined a clear role in the NBA, it was still murky whether his long term future was at the 1 or the 2, and he played out of position.

Since Zach has received a bigger role and a more clearly defined role and gotten consistent minutes his numbers compare with the best 2's in the game. His numbers have gotten even better at SG. Lavine is a much better secondary-ballhandler and much better player playing off the ball. First of all, Zach can score 10 points a game off of outlet passes in transition alone. His athleticism, speed, and handle allow him to explode past guys guarding him or straight out out run people down the floor and finish over even the biggest of players. His shot is wet. He's a solid 3 pt shooter off the dribble, but he's even better as a catch and shoot 3 point shooter when he can shoot in rhythm. He's over 50% on Corner 3's. And he can then attack already moving and rotating defenses and instead of having to create offense for others worry more about scoring or getting penetration and kicking it out to an open shooter.

As a secondary ball-handler, his vision is not bad for a SG at all...especially for a player his age. Him and KAT are almost unstoppable running the P&R. If you go under screens on Zach he'll rise up confidently and knock down the jump shot with consistency. If you go over the screen than Zach is already by you slashing to the rim and using his athleticism and hops to finish at something like 66% at the rim. If you do manage to get a defender to seal him off before the rim, KAT is rolling to the rim and wide open. Zach is already close to a 40% 3 pt shooter.

His defensive liabilites are overblown as well. Zach is one of the most athletic players in the league. His defensive issues mostly stymie from his slight frame and his youth. Expecting Zach to bulk up to be able to fight through screens and more effectively hit the glass as well as learn how to play team defense in a scheme against NBA players are two of the more sure things you can expect. Almost all young players come into the league with similiar issues. Patience is something that is hard to do with someone has as much talent as Lavine, and in hindsight people never remember the time it took the best players in the league to become what they were.

Lavine is going to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. With his shot from deep and ability to finish at the rim. Zach, given 34-35-36 minutes a game is already close to a 20/4/4 guy on like 48/42/82 splits from the field.

I'm not sure exactly what his potential is, but I'd argue 20 points/4 assists/4 rebounds is about Zach's floor if you expect a 20 year old player to improve at all by the time he reaches his prime.




His last 30 games since 1/12 at OKC just when Zach started to receive a bigger role his stats look like this...
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Box Score Stats
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MPG - 29.5
Points/game - 14.8
Ast/game - 2.83
Reb/game - 2.83
TO/game - 1.80
Stl/game - 1.03
Blk/game - 0.30

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Percentages:
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

FG/game + FG% - 50%*on 5.7 of 11.4 shots
2 FG/game + 2FG% - 53.7%** on 7.63 shots
3 FG/game + 3FG% - 42%*** on 3.76 shots
FT/game + FT% - 73%**** on 2.5 shots


*(171-342)
**(123-229)
***(48-113)
****(55-75)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Effeciency Stats
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

True Shooting Percentage - 60.6%
Points Per Shot - 1.30
eFG% - 57.2%
Turnover Rate - 12.6%
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PER 36
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

18.10 PPG - 3.50 APG - 3.50 RPG - 2.20 ToPG -1.30 SPG w/ shooting splits of 50/42/73

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Context:
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Among Guards who are 6'4 are larger and have played 28+ MPG this season (closest I could get to SG/wing sample) Lavine's numbers look like this compared to the rest of the leagues wings.

57.2 % eFG - 2nd (Reddick 59.6, Lavine 57.2, Thompson 56.6, Korver 56.3, Fournier 54.1)
60.6 % TS - 2nd (Reddick 63.2, Lavine 60.6, Thompson 59.6, Harden, 59.3, Fournier 58.0)
1.30 PPS - 6th (Harden 1.47, L. Williams 1.45, Reddick 1.41, Butler 1.38, Derozan 1.34, Lavine 1.30)

*6 SF's score more PPS as well. But all are really 3/4's more than Guards/SGs. Gallinari, Durant, Leonard, Giannis, Hayward, Lebron
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Another note...Wiggins last 32 games (basically same sample size)

34.3 mpg - 20.6 PPG - 3.40 RPG - 2.20 APG - .50 BPG - 1.03 SPG - 2.10 ToPG

on

48.3 FG% (237-491 - 7.4/15.3)
35.4 3FG% (23-65 - .72/2.03)
81 FT% (163-201- 5.1/6.3)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Our starting wings over the last 30ish games are averaging about a combined 40-7-6-2-1-4 on some pretty effecient shooting per 36. Add in KAT's 20-11 a night lately...


The Big 3 is coming together.

[lambchop]

kevin martin with hops

[NikolaPekovic]

He and Devin Booker are the future of the SG position.

[Entengtot]

jason richardson

[TheZachAttack]

jason richardson

Not a bad comparable. Lavine is a better shooter for sure though judging by J-Rich's career splits. Better shooting/slightly smaller J-Rich?

[Dilly]

Lake here Future superstar mark my words. My ucla bias might be getting the best of me, but we've seen flashes of his potential and it's scary.

[C.lupus]

His ceiling is probably all-star but he's got a ways to go for that. He needs to improve his defense and shot selection and get more consistent - he's a bit streaky right now. But he's a hard worker and a gym rat and he's finally playing his natural position on a regular basis. Running and gunning with Rubio and Wiggins is his sweet spot.

[GimmeDat]

Before the draft my comparison was an uber-athletic JCraw. I think that one holds pretty well, though Crawford is a much craftier ball handler.

His efficiency has been surprisingly impressive, considering from what I've seen from him, his shot selection can do with improvement.

He's still really young, if he brings his ball-handling to another level, continues to tighten up on D, and starts finding ways to utilize his athleticism a bit more in the half-court, you're looking at an All-Star, without a doubt.

If he struggles to improve from this point on, I still think he's a great 6th man guy that can get points up.