dhsilv2 wrote:I'd also add, despite what this forum seems to think. The last two seasons were the lowest free throw rates in terms of free throws to field goal attempts in nba history. So while everyone is crying about foul baiting and how offensive players just spend the game at the line...the reality was the last two years are the fewest free throws to field goals we've ever seen.
Initially I saw this post and felt like it needed more context around how shot distribution has changed over the years. My theory was that a valid complaint today is that there are too many fouls called on perimeter shots, whereas 20 years ago, there were more fouls called in the paint.
So I started digging a little, and seemed to find some evidence of what I was thinking - FTr rate has gradually declined over the last 20 years, but the median shot distance has gone up (I calculated this using the % of FGA shooting stats on bbref). This seemed to show that the declining FTr is due to a larger percentage of perimeter shots, and so recent complaints about foul baiting were still valid. Fans generally feel as though fouls called in the paint on post-ups or drives are more legitimate than those on jump shots on the perimeter.
Then I decided to visualize the shot distribution in more detail and came up with the below. What I think it clearly shows is that the increased median shot distance is due to 3-pointers supplanting long 2s. That's pretty much it. As you can see, the cumulative percentage of shots under 16 feet, and the cumulative percentage of shots under 10 feet, has stayed relatively steady over the last 20 years. There really has not been a sharp decline in shots in the paint.
What I could not find was FTr by shot distance, which would provide the indisputable proof on whether fouls are being called on perimeter shots more often today than they used to be. Conceivably, there could have been a sizable increase in FTr for perimeter shots, but that increase has perhaps not been as sharp as the decrease in FTr for paint/RA shots, the result of which would be a gradual decline in overall FTr.