NBA's new TV deal, maybe not smooth sailing

Cassius · Post #61 » by **Cassius** » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:12 pm

Everybody's home price doubled through the pandemic and people are confused about why a league run by millionaires and billionaires can finesse a tripling.

wco81 · Post #62 » by **wco81** » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:39 pm

NBA is asking for a tripling because the NFL got some huge jump like that.

The annual value of the NFL deals are over $10 billion a year.

So the NBA is asking for almost as much. While it's true that NFL gets much higher ratings. the NBA offers way more games broadcast so even at lower ad rates, they're able to sell a lot more ad time for it.

As for people talking about near term recessions, remember, the deal is likely to be for 10 years and won't start until fall of 2026.

Lalouie · Post #63 » by **Lalouie** » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:39 pm

wco81 wrote:
Lalouie wrote:ja, trae, luka, tatum all of them new guys have no traction the way lebron and curry do

thru nba history there has always been a megastar to take over EXCEPT IN THE 70's and the 70's are considered the dark ages before bird/magic even though the 70s had drJ and walton and moses.

there was bird/magic > mj > kobe/shaq >lebron curry. there's no one right now that can fill curry or lebron's shoes. i love luka and giannis but they aren't the answer, and if they aren't the answer then neither are ja, tatum, embiid, zion.

ZION might be the closest thing available but he's not running the pels the way lebron did @cavs

i think what's going to happen is what happened in the 70s........all the stars will get swallowed up by the parity that has engulfed basketball and that will play out as bad for basketball

Goes beyond just winning titles.

Lebron and Curry have sold tons of sneakers and jerseys and have tons of kids under 10 being influenced, not just becoming basketball fans but fans of them personally.

Some of the younger generation of players could break out but it’s not clear yet. Giannis could end up having that stature if he wins a couple more chips but it’s also possible that he could already be a bigger star if he was American and/or played in a bigger market.

He is in some national commercials like the one for Pixel phones but that’s not the biggest brand.

i think who the "public" chooses as icons is a fickle thing. and the "public" in this case is the non-sport fans. icons reach beyond the sport. it goes beyond winning hardware though hardware is a big part.

frankly i also thing he would have to be american.
basketball is world-wide but it's history is still american. like jazz is universal but it is still very american.

zion has that winning smile and his appeal has been immediate since the day he stepped onto cameron indoor, but he'll have to step it up. but he DOES have that "it" factor. ja doesn't have that media charisma.

Dominator83 · Post #64 » by **Dominator83** » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:23 pm

Rainwater wrote:Lol, a deal is going to get done. People always want to see the NBA fail lol.

I don't think the poster above you wants to see if fail. He just wants the league to be less complacent and get back to having to fight for viewership and product demand and stop taking their fans for granted pumping out inferior product with national TV games missing stars.

Now i actaully think Silver did improve the product atleast tords the end of the season with teams now fighting to get in or past the play-in tourney, which ironically a large portion of the fanbase still whines and complains about. I think its been great for competition down the stretch and has delivered much more quality late season games. Like the last month of the Westbrook Wizards was must-see TV.

Sedale Threatt · Post #65 » by **Sedale Threatt** » Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:59 am

I just don't know where the money is going to come from. Discovery took on a mountain of debt to buy Warner Media (TNT). Amazon and Disney have lost a ton of money on streaming recently. Netflix's meteoric growth has slammed into a brick wall. Traditional networks are dying. And so forth. I'm sure any of them would love to have the NBA given how valuable sports still seem to be. But even doubling their current deal is probably going to be a tall order.

Frankly, I'm just waiting for the day when these leagues decide to cut out the middle man, produce their own broadcasts and just stream directly themselves. Technology and viewing habits have changed so dramatically that this has to be right around the corner somewhere.

PBB · Post #66 » by **PBB** » Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:01 am

This is all negotiation tactics . A deal will get done

Rainwater · Post #67 » by **Rainwater** » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:13 am

PBB wrote:This is all negotiation tactics . A deal will get done

Yeah, I will be shocked if it doesn't.

PBB · Post #68 » by **PBB** » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:16 am

Rainwater wrote:
PBB wrote:This is all negotiation tactics . A deal will get done

Yeah, I will be shocked if it doesn't.

They can make double whatever deal they sign

wco81 · Post #69 » by **wco81** » Tue Dec 6, 2022 11:58 pm

Interesting WireTap stories, the league and the NBPA are not close to a new CBA.

Apparently the NBA is pushing for a hard cap, which is a no go for the players.

Seems like it's premature to have a CBA until the TV rights situation is settled.

They could always use terms that base things on percentages, regardless of how much of an increase in TV money they get.

But if either party is against continuing the current CBA terms, it would only get more contentious after they've secured a big bump in TV money.

BK_2020 · Post #70 » by **BK_2020** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 12:00 am

We need Giannis to go to a big market with a long NBA tradition, such as Boston. Silver needs to manufacture a Giannis for Jaylen Brown trade.

Pythagoras · Post #71 » by **Pythagoras** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 4:56 am

wco81 wrote:Interesting WireTap stories, the league and the NBPA are not close to a new CBA.

Apparently the NBA is pushing for a hard cap, which is a no go for the players.

Seems like it's premature to have a CBA until the TV rights situation is settled.

They could always use terms that base things on percentages, regardless of how much of an increase in TV money they get.

But if either party is against continuing the current CBA terms, it would only get more contentious after they've secured a big bump in TV money.

A hard cap would be completely impractical to implement. The NFL has a hard cap, but it has multiple factors in place that the NBA doesn’t have that allow teams to work within its structure.

wco81 · Post #72 » by **wco81** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 5:28 am

Sure but the NFL is wildly profitable.

NFL players are generally paid less than the NBA so the league has a better deal (from their POV) with their players than the NBA does.

Jkam31 · Post #73 » by **Jkam31** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 5:43 am

BK_2020 wrote:We need Giannis to go to a big market with a long NBA tradition, such as Boston. Silver needs to manufacture a Giannis for Jaylen Brown trade.

They should do luka for Smart why watch the best play the best when they can go coast together tgat this dumb **** stopped

Buckeye-NBAFan · Post #74 » by **Buckeye-NBAFan** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 6:38 am

Sedale Threatt wrote:I just don't know where the money is going to come from. Discovery took on a mountain of debt to buy Warner Media (TNT). Amazon and Disney have lost a ton of money on streaming recently. Netflix's meteoric growth has slammed into a brick wall. Traditional networks are dying. And so forth. I'm sure any of them would love to have the NBA given how valuable sports still seem to be. But even doubling their current deal is probably going to be a tall order.

Frankly, I'm just waiting for the day when these leagues decide to cut out the middle man, produce their own broadcasts and just stream directly themselves. Technology and viewing habits have changed so dramatically that this has to be right around the corner somewhere.

The money is coming from the profit margins of rights holders (ESPN used to rip sports leagues off given the profits it could generate with little competition - at one point, ESPN was basically worth as much as the NFL+NBA+NHL combined, now it's worth 1/3rd of the NBA and 1/6th of the NFL?) and from regional sports rights (partly why baseball valuation growth lags the NBA and even NHL, and NFL is crushing it since they never had regional rights), which have tanked in value as regional sports networks get kicked off cable plans, and more revenue goes to channels showing a growing number of national games.

But yeah, we're definitely closer to the end than the beginning of the spike in rights fees and franchise values that started in ~2011. The margins on sports rights are almost gone, and regional networks are effectively dead. There's no room left for continued exponential growth.

tbhawksfan1 · Post #75 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 11:04 am

People don't seem to understand that "TV money" is 100% fininced or paid by the public in general. That "TV" has all that money to spend just means that every time you go to the store, you are paying way above cost and the companies are getting richer and richer.

I would love to see the next "TV" deal decline and the whole NBA profit margin decline. Players salaries included.

Don't need anyone to tell me that this will never happen. I know that. The macro-economic model was constructed to guarantee that the money flows up and those that profit the most will do everything to perpetuate socio-economic inequity

tbhawksfan1 · Post #76 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 11:11 am

Once again: a hard cap would not be intended to reduce or limit players share or salary. It's intention would be to put all teams on a flat salary structure to create more parity. It is absurd that teams compete at such unequal salary levels. That's not sports. That's economics

tbhawksfan1 · Post #77 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 11:17 am

This CBA is going to be very contentious. Whatever the owners fight for this time it should be called the Ben Simmons clause. He's not the only player to refuse to honestly respect his contract, but he is the most egregious

The Corey's · Post #78 » by **The Corey's** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 11:38 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:
celticfan42487 wrote:If I was the NBA I'd start worrying when ESPN gets anything else with consistent ratings other than sports.

There's a reason every single streaming service wants local blackouts... it legit won't be able to sell cable without it.

Hell Professional Wrestling is extremely boring and it still often is among the top rating getter in key demographics because there is nothing produced on television worth paying for anymore.

It is understood that tv ratings are catering but I don't think people appreciate how much they've collapsed this century.

Yellowstone was the highest rated tv show last week with 8.83 million tuning in. In Nov 2010, a show called the mentalist hit almost 14 million. In a country of 370 million people that is nothing. Simply put there is no such thing as a hit show anymore.

Sports is one of the few things that people reliably watch live. All sports, even sports declining in popularity like baseball, are extremely valuable to networks for the reasons you outlined. It is one of the few things that can guarantee eyeballs. The NBA will get the figure it wants. And if it leaves TNT/ESPN it will because it choose to leave.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tv-ratings-sunday-nov-20-2022-1235267690/
https://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/tv-show-ratings-november-11-2010-18869/

No such thing as a hit show anymore? Because people aren't watching live doesn't mean they aren't watching.

Sports is different in that way. Who's watching a playback of an event?

If the NBA numbers are down it's due to the product and not due to people not watching TV.

Chuck Everett · Post #79 » by **Chuck Everett** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 2:22 pm

People are not talking enough about Bally's Sports financial problems and thus the regional networks that broadcast half the league. Cord-cutting is taking its toll. FOX got out of the RSN business at the right time.

Like I said in a previous post, if the NBA achieves parity with this current deal, I would say they did well. There is a world where a monetary contraction hurts their negotiating power. Their two partners right now are a combined 140 billion in debt (though slowly decreasing). Not an easy time to be negotiating billion dollar licensing deals.

jokeboy86 · Post #80 » by **jokeboy86** » Wed Dec 7, 2022 3:21 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:This CBA is going to be very contentious. Whatever the owners fight for this time it should be called the Ben Simmons clause. He's not the only player to refuse to honestly respect his contract, but he is the most egregious

It'll be very interesting whose side the tv media and talking heads will be on. Aside from the most extreme circumstances(Kyrie) they are steadfastly pro-players on damn near most issues but then again the load management, Ben Simmons, guys asking for trades while under contract, and also general media demonization may be rubbing them the wrong way

Does the NBA get the $75 billion TV money, not including streaming rights?