Jalen Green for Alex Caruso

[God Squad]

Drafted 2nd and will want to get paid accordingly after next year, even though his development has disappointed and he is clearly a major negative in terms of impact. The team has five other prospects - Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore - who it should prioritize (i.e., pay) over Green. If value can be had for Green, now is the time. Caruso gets the team where it wants to go these next two seasons. Green quite likely keeps them from getting there, and then it's time to pay him.

If for whatever reason they decide to cash in on Greens value, then Caruso should not be the target. I'd aim much, much higher, even if Houston attaches another asset.

Fair enough. Based on my own evaluation of Green as a player/prospect, I'm loving that so many are saying Houston shouldn't do this deal. Because if he has that same value in the league, Houston could come away as major winners if they do the smart thing and look to move him. Personally, I think Caruso would be enough in a vacuum, but if the market said Chicago would need to add value, so much the better.

Admittedly I don't "love" green as a prospect as much as I did pre draft. I'm aware of his faults (size, defense, shot selection, etc), but he still flashes good potential that someone will bite IMO. I just think too many are writing him off as a player. Is he going to be a top 10 player? Probably not, but top 30-40 isn't out of the question IMO.

[Chuck Everett]

Nah. You overrate Caruso. The Rockets are also not a contender, why are they trading for a guy like Caruso. It would be one thing if they signed him as a FA with available cap space, but giving up on rookie contract players (they've already done with this Garuba and TyTy Washington), is not the best idea. They can easily just let Jalen Green reach RFA if they are iffy on paying him.

[GSWFan1994]

Bulls say yes: they replace a 30 year old role player with limited availability with a 21 year old star with some upside, on a future cost controlled salary. Plus they would have another reason to trade Lavine, now that his replacement would be on the team.

Rockets say no: just invert the argument above. Rockets are trying to be on the rise; they need guys with upside, not role players. You are struggling, you bet on youth.

[vincecarter4pres]

If I were the Bulls I'd say no. Green is more of a low efficiency scorer compared to Caruso who fits well into most systems and is a solid defender.

The only reason the Bulls would also say no to this irl, is they are ran incredibly poor.

They are going nowhere, maybe even falling out of the play-in, have no future, but do own most all their future picks(‘25 top 10 protected, becomes top 8 for two years and then extinguishes to a ‘28 2nd), they are a team who desperately needs to have a fire sale and bring in some opportunistic young guys like this, and add a bad contract for draft picks if possible.

[scrabbarista]

Listening to the Sam Vecenie trade pod now and this idea was mentioned.

As a Rockets' fan, I like the idea.

What do you think? Which side, if either, would have to add picks/value, and how much?

Both players are under contract for this year and next year. Green is turning 22 soon, and Caruso turns 30 soon.

What makes you like the idea?

In what scenario does this make sense - they should fire the rockets gm if he talks about this in private lol

Green, per +/- data, is holding down what would otherwise be a much better team. He has not improved any aspect of his game in three seasons. (He tries harder on defense, but that's likely due to his environment, and he's still a negative defender, especially next to the studs Houston has.) It's almost time to pay him, and he has done nothing to warrant the big payday he's going to require, other than be drafted second overall. And then there are Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore waiting in line to be paid.

As another poster noted, you're going to have to either pay him or trade him.

The team's goal is to reach the playoffs this year and next. They don't have their pick this year. Green is not helping that goal; he's hurting it. He doesn't help you short-term, and given the contract he's going to require, he doesn't help you longterm. The team should be looking to move him.

If he'd shown any improvement in his three seasons, this would be a totally different story. For a player his age, with his physical gifts, to show so little (if any) improvement in three seasons is a major red flag. He should be moved if there's value out there to be found.

[HoopsterJones]

As a Bulls fan I would accept this trade even though Jalen Green is a very inefficient scorer because of his potential upside.

From the Rockets perspective, Jalen Green has 1 year left of his rookie contract before he gets his second contract or let him walk for nothing. He still has upside and has 1.5 seasons left to prove if he can make a jump.

[dirkdiggler4177]

his numbers have not improved really. He shoots 41%, which is low. If he does improve, he will demand a huge contract because he scores and is young. He is my mind a Jordan Poole type of player. Great if you got picks, but nothing you will ever build on. While Alex is a championship kind of player. He does not cost a lot but will give you a lot. (Yea, I know Poole won a championship)

[scrabbarista]

Bulls say yes: they replace a 30 year old role player with limited availability with a 21 year old star with some upside, on a future cost controlled salary. Plus they would have another reason to trade Lavine, now that his replacement would be on the team.

Rockets say no: just invert the argument above. Rockets are trying to be on the rise; they need guys with upside, not role players. You are struggling, you bet on youth.

Just for accuracy's sake, Green is closer to 22 than Caruso is to 30.

Is Green cost-controlled? He costs the same as Caruso next season, and then he can be paid over $200 million, if I'm not mistaken. He wouldn't be, of course, but the point is that he's not cost-controlled.

Which brings me to your final point. You're only young, in roster-building terms, for as long as you're paid like you're young. Houston has Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore. All younger and more cost-controlled than Green. They don't need youth.

The team is trying to rise, and if it pays the wrong people, those people will become anchors on the hot air balloon. With what I've seen from Green in three seasons, I think it's time to have another team bet on him to lift their fortunes.

[scrabbarista]

Nah. You overrate Caruso. The Rockets are also not a contender, why are they trading for a guy like Caruso. It would be one thing if they signed him as a FA with available cap space, but giving up on rookie contract players (they've already done with this Garuba and TyTy Washington), is not the best idea. They can easily just let Jalen Green reach RFA if they are iffy on paying him.

What does letting him reach RFA accomplish?

[zero rings]

The Rockets need to cut bait before he’s due for an extension. He’s terrible. If they can get anything of value for him it would be a great deal.

Way too many people in here are caught up on Green being a #2 pick.

[Chuck Everett]

Nah. You overrate Caruso. The Rockets are also not a contender, why are they trading for a guy like Caruso. It would be one thing if they signed him as a FA with available cap space, but giving up on rookie contract players (they've already done with this Garuba and TyTy Washington), is not the best idea. They can easily just let Jalen Green reach RFA if they are iffy on paying him.

What does letting him reach RFA accomplish?

Pay him less (if his reps are expecting a max extension). He can go seek out the contract he desires or accept what the Rockets offer or take the QO.

[CobraCommander]

What makes you like the idea?

In what scenario does this make sense - they should fire the rockets gm if he talks about this in private lol

Green, per +/- data, is holding down what would otherwise be a much better team. He has not improved any aspect of his game in three seasons. (He tries harder on defense, but that's likely due to his environment, and he's still a negative defender, especially next to the studs Houston has.) It's almost time to pay him, and he has done nothing to warrant the big payday he's going to require, other than be drafted second overall. And then there are Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore waiting in line to be paid.

As another poster noted, you're going to have to either pay him or trade him.

The team's goal is to reach the playoffs this year and next. They don't have their pick this year. Green is not helping that goal; he's hurting it. He doesn't help you short-term, and given the contract he's going to require, he doesn't help you longterm. The team should be looking to move him.

If he'd shown any improvement in his three seasons, this would be a totally different story. For a player his age, with his physical gifts, to show so little (if any) improvement in three seasons is a major red flag. He should be moved if there's value out there to be found.

A player his age? Jalen is 21.... he shouldn’t even be in the draft this year. He should be honing actual basketball skills in practice with a coach teaching him the fundamentals of team basketball...but he is making millions of dollars stinking up the plus minus...

But the talent is there -

The talent is there but the incentive isn’t there....the incentive is to get rich...not to be the best basketball TEAM player...that’s maybe 4th in his true life goals. 1. Get rich. 2. Have fun . 3 dunk on dudes heads...4...play team ball

He has a new coach - but he is the most talented guy on that team.

21 is too soon to say - he is what he is-

I get that he is trending like jordan Poole - but with some maturity and coaching he has the talent to be really special

[Ruma85]

Bulls say yes: they replace a 30 year old role player with limited availability with a 21 year old star with some upside, on a future cost controlled salary. Plus they would have another reason to trade Lavine, now that his replacement would be on the team.

Rockets say no: just invert the argument above. Rockets are trying to be on the rise; they need guys with upside, not role players. You are struggling, you bet on youth.

Just for accuracy's sake, Green is closer to 22 than Caruso is to 30.

Is Green cost-controlled? He costs the same as Caruso next season, and then he can be paid over $200 million, if I'm not mistaken. He wouldn't be, of course, but the point is that he's not cost-controlled.

Which brings me to your final point. You're only young in roster-building terms for as long as you're laid like you're young. Houston has Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore. All younger and more cost-controlled than Green. They don't need youth.

The team is trying to rise, and if it pays the wrong people, those people will become anchors on the hot air balloon. With what I've seen from Green in three seasons, I think it's time to have another team bet on him to lift their fortunes.

The points you brought up I actually quite like, I'm not liking Green's game ether, but he has in improved in some ways, I will give him credit for that, as a Laker fan, I loved Caruso, I would love to get him at this very moment, I'm quite sure people don't watch the bulls but his a menace on defensive and his more then capable on offense. Green gives me Poole vibes, but his not on that level & I hope he never goes there, though Poole has picked up his game the last week or so.

[ConSarnit]

A Rockets fan wants to trade a talented young guy (and a protected 1st round pick) for ... Alex Caruso?

Green literally just had his best game. He's 21. But Caruso is, what, gritty?

Some +/- data from this season:

Green On = -2.3
Green Off = +6.7

Green+Sengun = -1
Sengun, no Green = +7.4
Green, no Sengun = -8.6

Green, Sengun, FVV = +0.5
Sengun+FVV, no Green = +13.0

Vecenie says Green is Houston's sixth-best longterm prospect given his contract situation. He's certainly not top three. Houston has more prospects than it can pay; it should get value for one it likely won't want to pay anyway. Green's 20 ppg prototype is likely to be overpaid relative to his impact, especially as a #2 pick. He's not worth $140 million or some number like that.

The team wants to make the playoffs this year, as its pick is owed to OKC top-four protected. Caruso gets them there if the team stays healthy. Next year, too. He also fits the defensive culture and roster perfectly. I don't know about his PG skills, but if he has any, that's a major bonus, as the team has relied massively on FVV and an Aaron Holiday who has been great relative to expectations but could stand to be upgraded.

Trading Green for Caruso just to make the play-in is a short-sighted move. While Houston may have made moves in the off-season to push for the playoffs the players they acquired cost them only cap space. The pick Houston owes to OKC is a sunk cost and it doesn't really make much difference if they give up the 10th pick or 14th pick at this point. The limited upside of acquiring Caruso is not worth the risk of losing out on what Green could become (even if it's unlikely Green reaches his full potential). The Rockets need offense and Caruso is not overly helpful on that end (he is not a player to can run offense).

I'd much rather hold out hope for Green than trade him for a role player in a season that is going nowhere. The Rockets should not be making any moves based on mitigating the quality of the pick they owe OKC. That is a sunk cost.

[zero rings]

I understand people being low on Green, but a third year player drafted 2nd for Caruso?

C'mon man.

Let some other dumb team pay him for his draft position.

[scrabbarista]

Nah. You overrate Caruso. The Rockets are also not a contender, why are they trading for a guy like Caruso. It would be one thing if they signed him as a FA with available cap space, but giving up on rookie contract players (they've already done with this Garuba and TyTy Washington), is not the best idea. They can easily just let Jalen Green reach RFA if they are iffy on paying him.

What does letting him reach RFA accomplish?

Pay him less (if his reps are expecting a max extension). He can go seek out the contract he desires or accept what the Rockets offer or take the QO.

Less doesn't mean good value. And in RFA, you still may face the catch-22 of either losing him for nothing or paying him more than he's worth, both of which could be avoided by trading him now.

[Karate Diop]

The Rockets are multiple pieces away from even registering as a threat... This doesn't seem like the move to make.

[scrabbarista]

In what scenario does this make sense - they should fire the rockets gm if he talks about this in private lol

Green, per +/- data, is holding down what would otherwise be a much better team. He has not improved any aspect of his game in three seasons. (He tries harder on defense, but that's likely due to his environment, and he's still a negative defender, especially next to the studs Houston has.) It's almost time to pay him, and he has done nothing to warrant the big payday he's going to require, other than be drafted second overall. And then there are Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore waiting in line to be paid.

As another poster noted, you're going to have to either pay him or trade him.

The team's goal is to reach the playoffs this year and next. They don't have their pick this year. Green is not helping that goal; he's hurting it. He doesn't help you short-term, and given the contract he's going to require, he doesn't help you longterm. The team should be looking to move him.

If he'd shown any improvement in his three seasons, this would be a totally different story. For a player his age, with his physical gifts, to show so little (if any) improvement in three seasons is a major red flag. He should be moved if there's value out there to be found.

A player his age? Jalen is 21.... he shouldn’t even be in the draft this year. He should be honing actual basketball skills in practice with a coach teaching him the fundamentals of team basketball...but he is making millions of dollars stinking up the plus minus...

But the talent is there -

The talent is there but the incentive isn’t there....the incentive is to get rich...not to be the best basketball TEAM player...that’s maybe 4th in his true life goals. 1. Get rich. 2. Have fun . 3 dunk on dudes heads...4...play team ball

He has a new coach - but he is the most talented guy on that team.

21 is too soon to say - he is what he is-

I get that he is trending like jordan Poole - but with some maturity and coaching he has the talent to be really special

Hes 22 in nine days. How many players are 22 on draft night these days? Not many.

His youth and talent are the exact point I'm making. When a player is young and gifted, you expect improvement. In three seasons, Green has shown little to none.

Yes, he has the talent to be special. But does he have the desire? There is no evidence that he does. Does he have the mentality and character? There is no evidence that he does. Three years, no evidence.

I'm not saying he won't be good. I'm saying I don't want to bet on it with actual money, which is what Houston would be doing if they pay him past next season. He could become the second-contract version of Zach Lavine, which is admittedly not as bad as the actual Zach Lavine, but could still put a major anchor on a team that is loaded with young talent and needs to pay the right young players while continuing to maintain roster flexibility.

[GSWFan1994]

Bulls say yes: they replace a 30 year old role player with limited availability with a 21 year old star with some upside, on a future cost controlled salary. Plus they would have another reason to trade Lavine, now that his replacement would be on the team.

Rockets say no: just invert the argument above. Rockets are trying to be on the rise; they need guys with upside, not role players. You are struggling, you bet on youth.

Just for accuracy's sake, Green is closer to 22 than Caruso is to 30.

Is Green cost-controlled? He costs the same as Caruso next season, and then he can be paid over $200 million, if I'm not mistaken. He wouldn't be, of course, but the point is that he's not cost-controlled.

Which brings me to your final point. You're only young, in roster-building terms, for as long as you're paid like you're young. Houston has Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore. All younger and more cost-controlled than Green. They don't need youth.

The team is trying to rise, and if it pays the wrong people, those people will become anchors on the hot air balloon. With what I've seen from Green in three seasons, I think it's time to have another team bet on him to lift their fortunes.

All fair points, bud! I agree with you.

By "cost-controlled", I meant that the Rockets can match any offers Green can receive when he will be a restricted free agent. By the looks of it, he will get a max somewhere.

Will he be overpaid then? I don't know. He's still very young, he could improve by leaps and bounds... or he could not. The Rockets should bet on him anyway, if he doesn't realizes his potential he could be traded.

I like Caruso, but he would be far more valuable if on a team which is a contender, or who's 1 or 2 pieces away. If you're rebuilding he has no such value, as when your main core pieces are ready to go and contend, he will be much older.

Cheers, I'll enjoy a bowl of açaí tonight in your honor.

[scrabbarista]

A Rockets fan wants to trade a talented young guy (and a protected 1st round pick) for ... Alex Caruso?

Green literally just had his best game. He's 21. But Caruso is, what, gritty?

Some +/- data from this season:

Green On = -2.3
Green Off = +6.7

Green+Sengun = -1
Sengun, no Green = +7.4
Green, no Sengun = -8.6

Green, Sengun, FVV = +0.5
Sengun+FVV, no Green = +13.0

Vecenie says Green is Houston's sixth-best longterm prospect given his contract situation. He's certainly not top three. Houston has more prospects than it can pay; it should get value for one it likely won't want to pay anyway. Green's 20 ppg prototype is likely to be overpaid relative to his impact, especially as a #2 pick. He's not worth $140 million or some number like that.

The team wants to make the playoffs this year, as its pick is owed to OKC top-four protected. Caruso gets them there if the team stays healthy. Next year, too. He also fits the defensive culture and roster perfectly. I don't know about his PG skills, but if he has any, that's a major bonus, as the team has relied massively on FVV and an Aaron Holiday who has been great relative to expectations but could stand to be upgraded.

Trading Green for Caruso just to make the play-in is a short-sighted move. While Houston may have made moves in the off-season to push for the playoffs the players they acquired cost them only cap space. The pick Houston owes to OKC is a sunk cost and it doesn't really make much difference if they give up the 10th pick or 14th pick at this point. The limited upside of acquiring Caruso is not worth the risk of losing out on what Green could become (even if it's unlikely Green reaches his full potential). The Rockets need offense and Caruso is not overly helpful on that end (he is not a player to can run offense).

I'd much rather hold out hope for Green than trade him for a role player in a season that is going nowhere. The Rockets should not be making any moves based on mitigating the quality of the pick they owe OKC. That is a sunk cost.

Agree on the sunk cost. The point is that the team has a goal this season and next season of making the playoffs. This is "Phase 2." Caruso helps reach that goal, Green probably doesn't (especially this year).

I'd rather have value than hope, especially when that hope is based on no evidence. Caruso's better now, will likely be better next year, and will likely be better the year after that when he and Green are on new deals, Caruso's likely significantly cheaper.

The bottom line is that Green is going to be paid or traded. Given that there are five younger and more promising (not all higher upside, maybe) prospects already on the roster, I think "paid" would be a bad decision.

Speaking of those five guys, they're exactly why making the playoffs this year and next is so meaningful. They get valuable playoff reps, and the team gets to see them and learn about them (as super young players) in high-leverage games.