Jalen Green for Alex Caruso

[firedavidkahn]

Caruso is actually a good player though and Green isn't.

Why would the Bulls even consider this?

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Listening to the Sam Vecenie trade pod now and this idea was mentioned.

As a Rockets' fan, I like the idea.

What do you think? Which side, if either, would have to add picks/value, and how much?

Both players are under contract for this year and next year. Green is turning 22 soon, and Caruso turns 30 soon.

What makes you like the idea?

Some +/- data from this season:

Green On = -2.3
Green Off = +6.7

Green+Sengun = -1
Sengun, no Green = +7.4
Green, no Sengun = -8.6

All three together = +0.5
Sengun+FVV, no Green = +13.0

Vecenie says Green is Houston's sixth-best longterm prospect given his contract situation. He's certainly not top three. Houston has more prospects than it can pay; it should get value for one it likely won't want to pay anyway. Green's 20 ppg prototype is likely to be overpaid relative to his impact, especially as a #2 pick. He's not worth $140 million or some number like that.

The team wants to make the playoffs this year, as its pick is owed to OKC top-four protected. Caruso gets them there if the team stays healthy. Next year, too. He also fits the defensive culture and roster perfectly. I don't know about his PG skills, but if he has any, that's a major bonus, as the team has relied massively on FVV and an Aaron Holiday who has been great relative to expectations but could stand to be upgraded.

Yeah I'd do it as Houston. Green hasn't shown much growth. Still early for Green but I don't see dynamic superstar in the cards. Sengun is the clear star and they already have Cam Whitmore (thanks Masai) and Amen as guards on the rise. Green isn't their only shot at creating a dynamic big/guard duo like the Nuggets have

[scrabbarista]

Giving up on a #2 pick at their relative low point in the middle of their rookie contract seems like a bad idea. It's not like Green came out of nowhere to go that high. He was a top prospect for the majority of his teenage years. Those guys usually turn into something even if it's belated.

I totally got the decision to get some vets and compete. I don't get this push to sell low on high end potential just so they can make a playoff push. Rockets priority should still be development of Green/Jabari/Sengun.

Sengun and Smith have shown development. Green has not. There is only so much money to go around, so it all has to provide plus value. There is much more reason to believe Green will be a nagative on his next contract than a positive. Let another team take that gamble. Pay Sengun and Smith, and take your gambles on younger players like Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore - and probably one of the many draft picks that Houston owns. There simply isn't money to pay all of these guys. You have to choose the ones you want. Green isn't one of them. Next season is the last year of his rookie deal. The middle was a year ago, not now.

I don't understand the thought process that has Green not developing and won't develop but also that he will command this huge contract and therefore Houston can't afford him. If anything, he looks like a guy they should probably take into RFA. Not getting an extension done might be the thing that causes him to change and become the impact scorer people thought he'd be.

I just don't understand why Rockets need to make any of these decisions now. They have lots of time to wait this out.

It's not that Houston literally "couldn't afford him." Obviously they will have some money. It's that his value now is based on potential, but once he signs for starter money a little over a year from now, his value, by all signs to the present, will likely still be based on potential, but he'll be making 2-2.5 times as much as he makes now. I.e., he won't have positive value, which he has now. What they "can't afford" is paying starter money to a player who doesn't help them in the standings.

He is a #2 overall pick averaging close to 20 ppg. He is going to make some money, even if he shows no development between now and his next contract. He could develop noticably and still be a negative-impact player; if he shows any development, which players tend to do as contract negotiations approach, it could get ugly for the team that pays him. It's not as black and white as "Well, he'll get paid what he's worth in RFA." You could still lose him for nothing or pay him more than he's worth. This happens, even in RFA. My guess is that it's likely to happen with Green. Hence, trade him while his value is clearly positive to a team looking to start a rebuild. Yes, the Rockets are in a long game, but they are 12th in SRS, with four key players who are younger than Green, plus Eason who is "younger" in terms of his contract situation and, anyway, is already one of the team's most impactful guys.

He's had basically three years. There are no signs of improvement. Udoka seems to get the best out of his players. If so, then Green's (current, obviously) best is a loooooong way from helping a good team. I don't see the point in waiting and hoping, when he can bring value now in a trade. There are five other guys to wait and hope for, and none of them has the three-year track record of foiling hope that Green has.

[scrabbarista]

Another point about Green is that he makes 9.9M this year and 12.4M next. Rockets are in the same position with him that Warriors were in with Wiseman and Kings were in with Bagley. Jalen already makes too much to have value as a top pick unless he's playing well and showing promise. Either way, they're better off keeping him and hoping like heck he turns it around.

Warriors and Kings should've moved those players a lot earlier. The earlier, the better.

The Rockets are better off getting another team to "hope like heck."

Maybe they should've. Maybe it'll turn out Rockets should've moved off Green much earlier. Usually, you're better off waiting on those guys to develop unless there are just too many red flags. But once the pick is made and the player is playing poorly, there's a lot less value there than people think.

If your position after watching Green play every game is that he sucks and isn't developing and won't be worth his next contract let alone his current one, then that's likely to be other teams positions as well.

I don't think he sucks. I think his role is bigger than his ability and it's likely to be that way for at least a few more years. I think his next contract is likely to be negative value.

Other teams valuing Green the same as Houston does is obviously false. Other than maybe Jokic, Giannis, etc., you won't find a player in the league who is valued exactly the same across all 30 teams. If that were the case, there would be no trades.

[VanWest82]

Warriors and Kings should've moved those players a lot earlier. The earlier, the better.

The Rockets are better off getting another team to "hope like heck."

Maybe they should've. Maybe it'll turn out Rockets should've moved off Green much earlier. Usually, you're better off waiting on those guys to develop unless there are just too many red flags. But once the pick is made and the player is playing poorly, there's a lot less value there than people think.

If your position after watching Green play every game is that he sucks and isn't developing and won't be worth his next contract let alone his current one, then that's likely to be other teams positions as well.

I don't think he sucks. I think his role is bigger than his ability and it's likely to be that way for at least a few more years. I think his next contract is likely to be negative value.

Other teams valuing Green the same as Houston does is obviously false. Other than maybe Jokic, Giannis, etc., you won't find a player in the league who is valued exactly the same across all 30 teams. If that were the case, there would be no trades.

You're saying his role is too big (he's a scorer, what should his role be?) and his next contract will be negative value. Next year he'll be basically making MLE. Please tell me then, where's the value? I agree teams value players differently, but in terms of negotiating position, you're basically laying out the other teams' strategy in dealing with Rockets.

Again, I don't get the logic that Green isn't having impact and isn't showing improvement but will command big $$. In the same vein, I don't get how if Green is currently negative value and will likely continue to be negative value for at least a few more years why he'd be positive value in terms of trade. That doesn't make a lot of sense.

[durden_tyler]

Why would the Rockets be this dumb...

[scrabbarista]

Maybe they should've. Maybe it'll turn out Rockets should've moved off Green much earlier. Usually, you're better off waiting on those guys to develop unless there are just too many red flags. But once the pick is made and the player is playing poorly, there's a lot less value there than people think.

If your position after watching Green play every game is that he sucks and isn't developing and won't be worth his next contract let alone his current one, then that's likely to be other teams positions as well.

I don't think he sucks. I think his role is bigger than his ability and it's likely to be that way for at least a few more years. I think his next contract is likely to be negative value.

Other teams valuing Green the same as Houston does is obviously false. Other than maybe Jokic, Giannis, etc., you won't find a player in the league who is valued exactly the same across all 30 teams. If that were the case, there would be no trades.

You're saying his role is too big (he's a scorer, what should his role be?) and his next contract will be negative value. Next year he'll be basically making MLE. Please tell me then, where's the value? I agree teams value players differently, but in terms of negotiating position, you're basically laying out the other teams' strategy in dealing with Rockets.

Again, I don't get the logic that Green isn't having impact and isn't showing improvement but will command big $$. In the same vein, I don't get how if Green is currently negative value and will likely continue to be negative value for at least a few more years why he'd be positive value in terms of trade. That doesn't make a lot of sense.

Teams don't agree on players' values.

[CIN-C-STAR]

I totally got the decision to get some vets and compete. I don't get this push to sell low on high end potential just so they can make a playoff push. Rockets priority should still be development of Green/Jabari/Sengun.

That's a totally reasonable take except that they punted on a developmental season with every single move they made in the offseason, from the coach they hired to the guys they signed.
I think pivoting in the middle of the season would be worse than just going in either direction tbh, but they chose their direction 9 months ago.
As for why you'd give up on high-end talent while they're still on their rookie deal, well, it's because them being on their rookie deal is the only reason they might have some value right now.
Once you let the market decide his value, he won't have much value as an asset unless you expect him to give Houston a discount, which seems unlikely, or if you expect Green to make a massive leap, which is a gamble.

I don't see why they can't develop and compete at the same time. It's not like Rockets are close. If they were a guy away from competing for a championship, then sure, but Jabari and even Sengun aren't ready either. Move Green to the bench if he isn't playing the right way. Playing alongside seasoned vets and trying to compete is exactly how guys like that learn good habits and develop. They're going to move on from him half way into his first year of that?

In other words, I don't subscribe to the notion that they've picked a lane and therefore have to do something. That's just Ime getting impatient and losing sight of the prize. Mikhail Bridges isn't helping them win a title. They're 3-5 years away from that discussion. This is craziness unless they already have irrefutable evidence that Jalen is going to bust.

It's not Ime, it's a mandate from ownership.
That's why he hired Ime in the first place. The owner wants them to be competitive now.
The reason for the urgency has to do with their pick situation. They will give their pick up in 2024 unless it lands 1-4, and in 2025 unless it lands 1-10.
You could argue (correctly) that those are sunk costs and shouldn't impact future decisions, but it appears their owner thinks he will save face or something if those picks are mid-to-late first rounders rather than lottery picks (and there's probably some truth to that).
I'm not trying to argue btw or say you're wrong. I'm not even a Rockets fan, though I've enjoyed watching their team this season.
I'm just trying to explain what they're doing from their perspective, but feel free to disagree with their strategy. I'm not sure I really agree with it either, long term, but tbh I haven't really thought about it too hard since, again, I'm not really a Rockets fan lol.

[VanWest82]

That's a totally reasonable take except that they punted on a developmental season with every single move they made in the offseason, from the coach they hired to the guys they signed.
I think pivoting in the middle of the season would be worse than just going in either direction tbh, but they chose their direction 9 months ago.
As for why you'd give up on high-end talent while they're still on their rookie deal, well, it's because them being on their rookie deal is the only reason they might have some value right now.
Once you let the market decide his value, he won't have much value as an asset unless you expect him to give Houston a discount, which seems unlikely, or if you expect Green to make a massive leap, which is a gamble.

I don't see why they can't develop and compete at the same time. It's not like Rockets are close. If they were a guy away from competing for a championship, then sure, but Jabari and even Sengun aren't ready either. Move Green to the bench if he isn't playing the right way. Playing alongside seasoned vets and trying to compete is exactly how guys like that learn good habits and develop. They're going to move on from him half way into his first year of that?

In other words, I don't subscribe to the notion that they've picked a lane and therefore have to do something. That's just Ime getting impatient and losing sight of the prize. Mikhail Bridges isn't helping them win a title. They're 3-5 years away from that discussion. This is craziness unless they already have irrefutable evidence that Jalen is going to bust.

It's not Ime, it's a mandate from ownership.
That's why he hired Ime in the first place. The owner wants them to be competitive now.
The reason for the urgency has to do with their pick situation. They will give their pick up in 2024 unless it lands 1-4, and in 2025 unless it lands 1-10.
You could argue (correctly) that those are sunk costs and shouldn't impact future decisions, but it appears their owner thinks he will save face or something if those picks are mid-to-late first rounders rather than lottery picks (and there's probably some truth to that).
I'm not trying to argue btw or say you're wrong. I'm not even a Rockets fan, though I've enjoyed watching their team this season.
I'm just trying to explain what they're doing from their perspective, but feel free to disagree with their strategy. I'm not sure I really agree with it either, long term, but tbh I haven't really thought about it too hard since, again, I'm not really a Rockets fan lol.

It just seems so short-sighted to me. As I tried (and failed) to explain to scrabbarista, Jalen's trade value surely isn't all that high now anyways. It's unclear if he's even a positive trade asset atm given his contract. The risk/reward equation of a trade is way off.

I've watched a decent number of Rockets games this year because of Fred. That team needs their high potential guys, including Green, to develop to have any shot. If ownership wants to get impatient to save some face then trade another pick. Don't give up on your #2 overall guy 2.5 years in because you're dying to make the play-in. I don't think one needs to be a Rockets fan to understand that's bad asset mgmt. At the very least, give it until the extension deadline.

[ChiTownHero1992]

As a Bulls fan that wants a rebuild, i dont mind it but not sure

[meekrab]

Love it for the Bulls the quicker they accept reality the better. We'll take Brooklyn's pick this year too.

Presumably the issues with Green's 3 point shot can be fixed by our new shooting coach.

[Moahst]

It's not a horrible trade, and if I was the Rockets GM I'd do it, but they're just straight up not ready to give up on Jalen Green yet. I think they'll get there eventually, but not yet. Green is going to be in the league for a while, but it would surprise me if he was starting 2 years from now. Low IQ, low efficiency.

[Dominator83]

Wrong forum. Jalen green is still overrated because he's young and cheap. But to me he's a poor man's Zach Lavine and soon he won't be cheap anymore

[Chuck Everett]

Jalen Green must have read scrabbarista's thread. He's playing well tonight.

[SAKURABA216]

Anthony Edwards is having the career that Jalen Green was supposed to have.

[scrabbarista]

Jalen Green must have read scrabbarista's thread. He's playing well tonight.

I'm loving it.

I'd love it a lot more if he didn't give it all back on the other end.

This offense comes and goes for him; this defense, unfortunately, doesn't.

[ocelot17]

Read on Twitter

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[Tor_Raps]

Raptors will one up this by offering Bruce Brown who is proven PLUS a 1st Round Pick for Green/Bullock

[azcatz11]

Raptors will one up this by offering Bruce Brown who is proven PLUS a 1st Round Pick for Green/Bullock

I honestly couldn’t imagine him and Barnes sharing the court together. They’d probably kill each other

[HomoSapien]

Jalen Green just had his best game. I’d rather get nothing than to trade for Alex Caruso.

Wait, what? You'd rather receive literally nothing than have an all-defensive team shooting guard? Like if those are your only two options, you pick NOTHING??