Lebron won’t be on top 10 GOAT lists in 30 years

[One_and_Done]

Most people have Kareem top 3 still, and he retired over 30 years ago.

Even for the casual fan, Lebron is never going away. Why? Because he's going to be too much in focus with the unbreakable scoring record he's setting. It's already unbreakable, and by the time he's done he's done he'll have career totals that look like 46k points, 13k rebounds, 13k assists. As players play fewer minutes with resting policies those figures will come to be mind boggling for future generations.

"He got 46k points? How is that even possible?" will be the sentiment.

[JonFromVA]

Wilts records are so unbelievable, folks think they are lies. Just recently, the 100 point game came under question.

I'm not sure what you mean by under question, but it was an artificial achievement that Wilt and his team intentionally pushed for knowing the opportunity was there and it would make history. It's spared complete ridicule because Wilt has/had so many other high scoring games.

Kobe scored 60 pts in his last game .vs. Utah because both teams were trying to honor him. If for fun they pushed it to 101 though, it just would have been a sham.

Why single out Wilt? David Thompson’s 73 point game came in the last game of the 1978 season when he was gunning for the scoring title. David Robinson’s 71 point game came in the last game of the 1994 season when he was gunning for the scoring title. Booker’s teammates were definitely feeding him to get him 70. Mitchell needed overtime to get to 70. Kobe’s 60 point finale was a farce. Dudes season high was like 38 and then he gets 60 on 50 shots?

Because I was replying to a remark about Wilt's 100pt game?

[Roger Murdock]

I posted on here the radio recording of Wilts 100 point game

It’s without question the biggest clown fiesta game in NBA history. The other teams fouling wilt to send him to the line. The 76ers are fouling the other team to get the ball back. Credit to Wilt he made all his FTs. But it wasn’t a real game of basketball.

[NZB2323]

Wilt cared more about stats than winning. He chased the 100 point game, got an assist title, averaged 48.5 minutes per game one year, and never fouled out of a game, but one year he refused to practice before noon and he only won 2 championships.

Lebron has a great work ethic and has twice as many championships.

[Hair Jordan]

It might be time for us to get OP off the laptop, phone, whatever it is. There should be a limit of nonsense threads made before you get your thread making privileges taken away.

You’re right. This forum seems like it’s patrolled by a bunch of kids who probably started watching the NBA around 2000 yet act like they have the requisite perspective to opine about players, teams, strategies and philosophies from earlier basketball eras. The mods seem to back up these kids to keep the status quo around here. Forgive me for thinking outside of the box with my topics and for trying to engage in a spirited debate. I’ll leave you to yourselves

This quote and your OP make it sound like you're accusing everyone of being too zoomed in on the current era and having no concept of basketball history and how it changes. The thing is, no player who ever flirted with being considered the great of all-time has ever dropped out of top 10 discussion over a 30-year sample. Wilt and Bill are still generally considered in the 3-8 range. Magic and Bird (I see them anywhere from 3-12) have dropped off as other players rise but it's been over 30 years since they've played. George Mikan is probably the only player ever to be considered the greatest of all-time to not be in the considered in the top 10. But that was 60 years ago, and I'm not sure how important the GOAT debate was when the NBA was only a decade old.

There are guys who were in the top 10 and have since been leapfrogged (Dr. J, Big O, West, Moses), but those players were never seriously argued as the GOAT over Wilt or Russell. There's a very short list of players who have been widely considered the greatest of all-time, and that list gets harder to join the longer the league exists and the more players there are.

If Lebron is falling out of the top 10, that means that everyone else in the top 10 is falling out of the top 10. So I don't see the reason for singling out Lebron here. So many people have him at #1 or in their top 4. So for him not to be on lists... that means Shaq, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Duncan, Wilt are all falling out too.

You make some good points but you’re missing my point; Not all players age the same. Lebron may be ahead of Magic, Bird, Russell etc but may age WORSE over the next 30 years and leapfrog BEHIND them. I’m using Wilt as my example; a Goliath stat freak who lost more than he won. His place in history is secure but aging poorly. I’ve seen him omitted from more than a few GOAT lists. I think Lebron (Goliath stat freak who lost more than he won) we age poorly as well.

[FarBeyondDriven]

he definitely will lol. All the people who actually saw Wilt, Kareem, Bird, Magic and MJ will be dead. The media will be dominated by kids that grew up watching Lebron and will wax poetically about him. And they'll have meaningless counting stats from a weak era to back up their claims. Nobody will remember that he stacked his teams or played in the weakest Eastern Conference in NBA history. In 30 years my guess is Magic, Bird, and the old-timers will be long forgotten and replaced by Wembanyama, Flagg and Luka

[eric365]

I hope the OP is right because this means we're going to get to watch the 10 best players of all time all play in the next 30 years.

We will.

Beside the Lebron is the current GOAT that I will not comment :
Let’s be honest, I don’t think any player from the 80’s or before would be in the top 10 of the current NBA

Everything is faster, stronger, more accurate

30 years from now, every all star will be able to shoot left handed floater from the 3 point line and be 7’ at shooting guard
And we will say : Lebron would have adapted to this

[KembaWalker]

he definitely will lol. All the people who actually saw Wilt, Kareem, Bird, Magic and MJ will be dead. The media will be dominated by kids that grew up watching Lebron and will wax poetically about him. And they'll have meaningless counting stats from a weak era to back up their claims. Nobody will remember that he stacked his teams or played in the weakest Eastern Conference in NBA history. In 30 years my guess is Magic, Bird, and the old-timers will be long forgotten and replaced by Wembanyama, Flagg and Luka

People that actually watched LeBron don’t rank him that highly. He presents a strong GOAT case on a spreadsheet but comes up extremely short on the eye test, narrative test. His reputation will peak when the people who actually watched him at his peak are pushed out of the convo, as happened similarly with Kareem Abdul Jabbar in the 2000s

[Hair Jordan]

I hope the OP is right because this means we're going to get to watch the 10 best players of all time all play in the next 30 years.

We will.

Beside the Lebron is the current GOAT that I will not comment :
Let’s be honest, I don’t think any player from the 80’s or before would be in the top 10 of the current NBA

Everything is faster, stronger, more accurate

30 years from now, every all star will be able to shoot left handed floater from the 3 point line and be 7’ at shooting guard
And we will say : Lebron would have adapted to this

You don’t think 80’s players like Kareem, Moses, Magic, Bird, Jordan, Erving, Gervin, Olajuwon, Ewing, McHale, Barkley, Malone, Isiah etc would be top 10 in the league today? Why do I even bother debating kids?

[One_and_Done]

Wilt cared more about stats than winning. He chased the 100 point game, got an assist title, averaged 48.5 minutes per game one year, and never fouled out of a game, but one year he refused to practice before noon and he only won 2 championships.

Lebron has a great work ethic and has twice as many championships.

Wilt refused to live in Philly when he played there. He would commute from NY. Wilt once held out over money with a fake injury, and then came down from the stands to play at halftime because he was so annoyed with how they were playing. There are dozens of such Wilt stories. The modern media would have been brutal to Wilt.

[Hair Jordan]

Wilt cared more about stats than winning. He chased the 100 point game, got an assist title, averaged 48.5 minutes per game one year, and never fouled out of a game, but one year he refused to practice before noon and he only won 2 championships.

Lebron has a great work ethic and has twice as many championships.

Wilt refused to live in Philly when he played there. He would commute from NY. Wilt once held out over money with a fake injury, and then came down from the stands to play at halftime because he was so annoyed with how they were playing. There are dozens of such Wilt stories. The modern media would have been brutal to Wilt.

Nah, they’d coddle I’m like they coddle Lebron.

[NZB2323]

Meh, those are all cumulative/longevity related stats you mentioned. Wilt retired as the all time leader in both points AND rebounds. In fact, his rebounding record still stands and It’s unassailable. He won 3 consecutive MVP’s (something both Bron and Jordan didn’t do). He didn’t win any FMVP’s because it didn’t exist at the time. He could quite conceivably be the all time leader in blocked shots if they recorded that stat back then. So if the all time leader in points (when he retired), scoring titles (when he retired), rebounding (still is) and blocked shots (probably is) didn’t stop Wilt from backsliding, what makes you think Lebron will hold steady?

Championships isn’t a longevity stat. Even if you give Wilt a Finals MVP for 1967, he still has half of Lebron.

Finals MVPs
Jordan - 6
Lebron - 4
Magic - 3
Shaq - 3
Duncan - 3
Willis Reed - 2
Kawhi - 2
Durant - 2
Hakeem - 2
Kobe - 2
Bird - 2
Kareem - 2

You can’t really call it a longevity stat when Kawhi and Willis Reed are on the leaderboard, and Magic is 3rd all time. If you give Wilt one for 1967, he’s tied with Reed and Kawhi. He’s not 2nd all time.

Wilt refused to practice before noon one season, his numbers typically regressed in the playoffs, and he only won 2 championships. None of those things apply to Lebron.

Also, Wilt is in the top 10. I think the last Realgm poll had him at 6.

Meh, if Wilt jumped ship to the Celts in the early 60’s like Lebron jumped ship to the Heat he’d have like 8 or 9 titles to go along with his godly stats.

Wilt jumped ship multiple times in his career. In 1969 he played with Jerry West and Elgin Baylor and had homecourt advantage in the Finals. For game 7 there was a printout that said: “When the Lakers win, balloons will fall from the rafters.”

The Lakers lost. Wilt only had 18 points and shot 4-13 from the free throw line as his team lost by 1. His teammate, Jerry West, won Finals MVP. Wilt only averaged 11.3 ppg for the series.

I think most people have West ranked ahead of Wade and Baylor ranked ahead of Bosh.

Both West and Baylor made all-NBA in 1969 and Wilt didn’t. It would be like if Lebron joined forces with Dwayne Wade and Dirk Nowitski in 2010 and then lost to the Celtics and Wade won Finals MVP.

[Sedale Threatt]

Wilt cared more about stats than winning. He chased the 100 point game, got an assist title, averaged 48.5 minutes per game one year, and never fouled out of a game, but one year he refused to practice before noon and he only won 2 championships.

Lebron has a great work ethic and has twice as many championships.

Wilt refused to live in Philly when he played there. He would commute from NY. Wilt once held out over money with a fake injury, and then came down from the stands to play at halftime because he was so annoyed with how they were playing. There are dozens of such Wilt stories. The modern media would have been brutal to Wilt.

Possibly my favorite: He had a habit of consuming huge meals at halftime. So many of these stories could be apocryphal, but at one point he allegedly he downed a chicken, an apple pie and a gallon of milk. His coach said he never wanted to see that again. So the next game Wilt ate a dozen hot dogs with a giant bottle of 7-Up. Total pro, real team player.

[NZB2323]

I hope the OP is right because this means we're going to get to watch the 10 best players of all time all play in the next 30 years.

We will.

Beside the Lebron is the current GOAT that I will not comment :
Let’s be honest, I don’t think any player from the 80’s or before would be in the top 10 of the current NBA

Everything is faster, stronger, more accurate

30 years from now, every all star will be able to shoot left handed floater from the 3 point line and be 7’ at shooting guard
And we will say : Lebron would have adapted to this

You don’t think 80’s players like Kareem, Moses, Magic, Bird, Jordan, Erving, Gervin, Olajuwon, Ewing, McHale, Barkley, Malone, Isiah etc would be top 10 in the league today? Why do I even bother debating kids?

Isiah wouldn’t be. He’s the most overrated player of all time. The narrative is he beat Bird, Magic, and Jordan, but look at his playoff numbers

Thomas 1989: 18, 8, and 4, 48.1 TS%, 18.6 PER
Billups 2004: 16, 6, and 3, 54.6 TS%, 18.8 PER

Thomas 1990: 22, 8, and 6, 56 TS%, 21 PER
Billups 2009: 21, 7, and 4, 66.4 TS%, 22.9 PER

Yet Billups never gets the narrative of beating Shaq, Kobe, and Dirk. Isiah Thomas is closer to Billups than a top 10 player.

Also don’t know about Gervin or Ewing.

Jokic
Embiid
Giannis
Luka
SGA
AD
Kawhi
Lebron
Tatum
Butler

I think I’d take all those guys over Gervin or Ewing.

[MacGill]

Yup - it certainly is possible. I have him in the top 10 right now but aside from fantastic regular season and some post season campaigns, he has some of the worst top 10 player post season meltdowns of any of the greats. When you realize that in the nba you don't have to be the best at everything on your team to become the best player and/or have the greatest impact you'll understand why others, even if modern statistical measurements don't show them as such, were superior players as they could work within a system, while exceling their own game and teammates beyond a simple statisical measurement that looks more and more empty each year as this era continues to balloon to heights not seen since the 60's.

[JonHeist]

the dude who posted this thread should be banned

does nothing but post bait

[Iwasawitness]

You’re right. This forum seems like it’s patrolled by a bunch of kids who probably started watching the NBA around 2000 yet act like they have the requisite perspective to opine about players, teams, strategies and philosophies from earlier basketball eras. The mods seem to back up these kids to keep the status quo around here. Forgive me for thinking outside of the box with my topics and for trying to engage in a spirited debate. I’ll leave you to yourselves

This quote and your OP make it sound like you're accusing everyone of being too zoomed in on the current era and having no concept of basketball history and how it changes. The thing is, no player who ever flirted with being considered the great of all-time has ever dropped out of top 10 discussion over a 30-year sample. Wilt and Bill are still generally considered in the 3-8 range. Magic and Bird (I see them anywhere from 3-12) have dropped off as other players rise but it's been over 30 years since they've played. George Mikan is probably the only player ever to be considered the greatest of all-time to not be in the considered in the top 10. But that was 60 years ago, and I'm not sure how important the GOAT debate was when the NBA was only a decade old.

There are guys who were in the top 10 and have since been leapfrogged (Dr. J, Big O, West, Moses), but those players were never seriously argued as the GOAT over Wilt or Russell. There's a very short list of players who have been widely considered the greatest of all-time, and that list gets harder to join the longer the league exists and the more players there are.

If Lebron is falling out of the top 10, that means that everyone else in the top 10 is falling out of the top 10. So I don't see the reason for singling out Lebron here. So many people have him at #1 or in their top 4. So for him not to be on lists... that means Shaq, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Duncan, Wilt are all falling out too.

You make some good points but you’re missing my point; Not all players age the same. Lebron may be ahead of Magic, Bird, Russell etc but may age WORSE over the next 30 years and leapfrog BEHIND them. I’m using Wilt as my example; a Goliath stat freak who lost more than he won. His place in history is secure but aging poorly. I’ve seen him omitted from more than a few GOAT lists. I think Lebron (Goliath stat freak who lost more than he won) we age poorly as well.

It's hard for us to see your point when your point isn't valid to begin with. You've said multiple times now that people have omitted Wilt from their top ten lists, some you've even described as "reputable". I've seen an awful lot of top ten lists during my time on the internet. I don't think I've ever once seen Wilt be excluded from a top ten list, and I'm not the only person from this thread to point this out.

As far as we're concerned, your point is based on a false premise. Maybe if you showed us some of these lists that you were talking about, we'd be able to see things better from your end and think "eh, he's got a bit of a point". Right now this is just a bunch of empty hot air.

[Nate505]

He'll be up there, but the plumbers and fireman he's playing against now won't help his cause.

[NZB2323]

Yup - it certainly is possible. I have him in the top 10 right now but aside from fantastic regular season and some post season campaigns, he has some of the worst top 10 player post season meltdowns of any of the greats. When you realize that in the nba you don't have to be the best at everything on your team to become the best player and/or have the greatest impact you'll understand why others, even if modern statistical measurements don't show them as such, were superior players as they could work within a system, while exceling their own game and teammates beyond a simple statisical measurement that looks more and more empty each year as this era continues to balloon to heights not seen since the 60's.

Only if you compare him to Jordan. Everyone else has stinkers:

Lebron 2011 Finals: 18, 7, and 7, 54.1 TS%, 13.7 GmSc
Kobe 2004 Finals: 23, 4, and 3, 45.6 TS%, 11.6 GmSc
Shaq 2007 1st round: 18, 9, and 1, 52.9 TS%, 11.3 GmSc
Hakeem 1990 1st round: 19, 12, and 2, 47.8 TS%, 17.1 GmSc
Curry 2016 Finals: 23, 5, and 4, 58 TS%, 13.1 GmSC
Duncan 2011 1st round: 20, 3, and 5, 50 TS%, 10.6 GmSc

Magic 1981 1st round: 17, 14, and 7, 44.1 TS%
Kareem 1973 1st round: 23, 16, and 3, 44.7 TS%

Wilt 1969 Finals: 12, 25, and 3, 50% FG, 36.4 FT%
Russell 1967 Division Finals: 11, 23, and 6, 35.8 FG%, 67.9 FT%
Bird 1983 ECF: 18, 14, and 7, 41.2/20/73.1 shooting splits

That's what seperates Jordan. His worse series is probably in 1995 coming back from baseball, but even that wasn't that bad:

Jordan 1995 ECSF: 31, 7, and 4, 53.9 TS%, 21.6 GmSc

I guess you could say Hakeem wasn't that bad, but he had a real stinker in 1998 also. You could say he was past his prime, but he was the same age as Jordan who won Finals MVP that year.

If anyone knows how I could find the GmSc stats for Magic, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, and Bird in those series I would appreciate it.

Also, Lebron put up great stats from 2007-2016, which is similar to the 1990s in terms of scoring. And even today's numbers aren't as inflated as 1962.

And Wilt is the opposite of a player who could work within a system. Dude refused to practice before noon for a season.

[Sedale Threatt]

Yup - it certainly is possible. I have him in the top 10 right now but aside from fantastic regular season and some post season campaigns, he has some of the worst top 10 player post season meltdowns of any of the greats. When you realize that in the nba you don't have to be the best at everything on your team to become the best player and/or have the greatest impact you'll understand why others, even if modern statistical measurements don't show them as such, were superior players as they could work within a system, while exceling their own game and teammates beyond a simple statisical measurement that looks more and more empty each year as this era continues to balloon to heights not seen since the 60's.

Only if you compare him to Jordan. Everyone else has stinkers:

Lebron 2011 Finals: 18, 7, and 7, 54.1 TS%, 13.7 GmSc
Kobe 2004 Finals: 23, 4, and 3, 45.6 TS%, 11.6 GmSc
Shaq 2007 1st round: 18, 9, and 1, 52.9 TS%, 11.3 GmSc
Hakeem 1990 1st round: 19, 12, and 2, 47.8 TS%, 17.1 GmSc
Curry 2016 Finals: 23, 5, and 4, 58 TS%, 13.1 GmSC
Duncan 2011 1st round: 20, 3, and 5, 50 TS%, 10.6 GmSc

Magic 1981 1st round: 17, 14, and 7, 44.1 TS%
Kareem 1973 1st round: 23, 16, and 3, 44.7 TS%

Wilt 1969 Finals: 12, 25, and 3, 50% FG, 36.4 FT%
Russell 1967 Division Finals: 11, 23, and 6, 35.8 FG%, 67.9 FT%
Bird 1983 ECF: 18, 14, and 7, 41.2/20/73.1 shooting splits

That's what seperates Jordan. His worse series is probably in 1995 coming back from baseball, but even that wasn't that bad:

Jordan 1995 ECSF: 31, 7, and 4, 53.9 TS%, 21.6 GmSc

I guess you could say Hakeem wasn't that bad, but he had a real stinker in 1998 also. You could say he was past his prime, but he was the same age as Jordan who won Finals MVP that year.

If anyone knows how I could find the GmSc stats for Magic, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, and Bird in those series I would appreciate it.

Also, Lebron put up great stats from 2007-2016, which is similar to the 1990s in terms of scoring. And even today's numbers aren't as inflated as 1962.

And Wilt is the opposite of a player who could work within a system. Dude refused to practice before noon for a season.

Unfortunately a lot of this stuff gets lost over time, or newer fans come along and never knew or learned about it to begin with.

Larry Legend, patron saint of clutchness, was awful in that series with the Sixers -- he failed to surpass his scoring average in the final six games, shooting terribly in the process -- and a couple of others. Magic Johnson remains my favorite player of all time, and while he had good counting stats in the 84 Finals he also screwed up not one but two end-of-regulation possessions in games the Lakers lost in OT (bricking two critical FTs in the second for good measure). L.A. should have swept that series and they lost in 7 in no small part because of those F ups. As great as Kobe was, much like Brett Favre with his unforced interceptions there was always a chance he was going to shoot you right out of a game. And so on.

The 2011 Finals remains probably the biggest WTF performance I've ever seen from a big gun. At that point I was ready to pretty much write LeBron off. But he proceeded to turn in monster performance after monster performance over the next decade, to the point that I have to laugh when people say he doesn't pass the "eye test" or whatever other BS. I had a list at one point of like 15 games where the Heat/Cavs were facing a 3-1 deficit or outright elimination that he came up huge. He's got the highest Game 7 scoring average in history. He's got the highest elimination scoring average in history. Totally redeemed in my eyes.

At the end of the day it just comes down to personal biases. But you should still be able to put that crap aside. Like it would be hard to put into words just how much I loathed Jordan while he was playing. But at no point did I try to twist myself into pretzels to deny his greatness. How so many people continue to do that with LeBron honestly boggles my mind sometimes. The notion that he's not going to be Top 10 in 30, 40, even 50 years with everything he's done is preposterous.