Lebron won’t be on top 10 GOAT lists in 30 years

[Hair Jordan]

Wilts records are so unbelievable, folks think they are lies. Just recently, the 100 point game came under question.

I'm not sure what you mean by under question, but it was an artificial achievement that Wilt and his team intentionally pushed for knowing the opportunity was there and it would make history. It's spared complete ridicule because Wilt has/had so many other high scoring games.

Kobe scored 60 pts in his last game .vs. Utah because both teams were trying to honor him. If for fun they pushed it to 101 though, it just would have been a sham.

Why single out Wilt? David Thompson’s 73 point game came in the last game of the 1978 season when he was gunning for the scoring title. David Robinson’s 71 point game came in the last game of the 1994 season when he was gunning for the scoring title. Booker’s teammates were definitely feeding him to get him 70. Mitchell needed overtime to get to 70. Kobe’s 60 point finale was a farce. Dudes season high was like 38 and then he gets 60 on 50 shots?

[Djoker]

I can see Lebron dropping on GOAT lists in coming years for a few reasons:
- only won 4 rings
- does not have an aesthetically pleasing game
- his failures are well publicized
- hated by a large number of people

Still I think top 5 maybe. No way he falls outside of the top 10 IMO.

[Harry Palmer]

This seems highly unlikely.

[MarcusBrody]

Outside of all the other reasons that people have mentioned, 30 years just isn't enough time for 8 players to jump him (assuming he's seen as Top 3 now). The players at the GOAT edge of the Top 10 basically dominated an era. Kareem the 70s (and played well into the 80s), Jordan the 90s, LeBron the late 2000s/2010s.Even if they didn't win every title, they were the towering figure/best players every year for basically a decade.

Jokic is the current player closest to LeBron. I take dsilv's points, but do think that Jokic started slower and that hurts him in these discussions, but let's say that Jokic wins 4 NBA finals in the next five years playing at his current level and pips LeBron on consensus. So now LeBron is down to 4 in 5 years. Then Wemby comes into his prime and dominates from 25-35, also passing LeBron. He's now down to 5, but half the time frame has gone by and we have to hope another GOAT candidate is ready. And people mentioning Luka: In order for Jokic and Wemby to pass LeBron, Luka would have to fall short of that. If he would pass LeBron in the rankings, it means that Jokic or Wemby falls short.

You're just not going to get consensus GOAT players very often if they aren't better than their peers, so you can't have more than one (or maybe two like in the Bird/Magic era, but those guys are rated below LeBron by most). Even if we shortened the period of GOAT level domination to 5 years, that would only allow for 6 players in the next 30 years. LeBron would still be 9th. We'd have to go back and renarrate several other players ahead of him. Bird and Magic? Maybe, but he has solid arguments over both. Steph? It would be hard as I don't think anyone watching their Finals battles would judge Steph the better player overall. Duncan? Wilt? Russell?

TLDR: Given the length of domination we expect for players in GOAT conversations, there just isn't enough time for LeBron to be knocked out of the top 10.

[msmoore66]

Wait, between now and 30 years from now, Lebron will become a goat?

[NZB2323]

Wilt is top 10 and so is Kareem. What am I missing here?

Also, Lebron’s legacy is a lot better than Wilt’s. Lebron has:

2x more championships
3x more Finals MVPs
6x more all-NBA 1st team(kinda silly teams can only have 1 center, otherwise Wilt and Russell would have been 1st team each year)
7x more all-star

And Wilt chasing records and then coming up short in the playoffs isn’t super impressive, especially when he played in the fastest era of all time, especially 1962. There was also one year Wilt refused to practice before noon. Lebron has nothing like that.

Meh, those are all cumulative/longevity related stats you mentioned. Wilt retired as the all time leader in both points AND rebounds. In fact, his rebounding record still stands and It’s unassailable. He won 3 consecutive MVP’s (something both Bron and Jordan didn’t do). He didn’t win any FMVP’s because it didn’t exist at the time. He could quite conceivably be the all time leader in blocked shots if they recorded that stat back then. So if the all time leader in points (when he retired), scoring titles (when he retired), rebounding (still is) and blocked shots (probably is) didn’t stop Wilt from backsliding, what makes you think Lebron will hold steady?

Championships isn’t a longevity stat. Even if you give Wilt a Finals MVP for 1967, he still has half of Lebron.

Finals MVPs
Jordan - 6
Lebron - 4
Magic - 3
Shaq - 3
Duncan - 3
Willis Reed - 2
Kawhi - 2
Durant - 2
Hakeem - 2
Kobe - 2
Bird - 2
Kareem - 2

You can’t really call it a longevity stat when Kawhi and Willis Reed are on the leaderboard, and Magic is 3rd all time. If you give Wilt one for 1967, he’s tied with Reed and Kawhi. He’s not 2nd all time.

Wilt refused to practice before noon one season, his numbers typically regressed in the playoffs, and he only won 2 championships. None of those things apply to Lebron.

Also, Wilt is in the top 10. I think the last Realgm poll had him at 6.

[sp6r=underrated]

I hope the OP is right because this means we're going to get to watch the 10 best players of all time all play in the next 30 years.

[dygaction]

I can see Lebron dropping on GOAT lists in coming years for a few reasons:
- only won 4 rings
- does not have an aesthetically pleasing game
- his failures are well publicized
- hated by a large number of people

Still I think top 5 maybe. No way he falls outside of the top 10 IMO.

In two more seasons, he will also have most games played and longest time played under his belt. Even if he is not the tallest peak, he is the longest river, so top 5 is quite secure. My prediction is that KAJ would be boarder lined and out of top 5. All the longevity thing would be after thoughts when you are second all time like Karl Malone before.

[cupcakesnake]

It might be time for us to get OP off the laptop, phone, whatever it is. There should be a limit of nonsense threads made before you get your thread making privileges taken away.

You’re right. This forum seems like it’s patrolled by a bunch of kids who probably started watching the NBA around 2000 yet act like they have the requisite perspective to opine about players, teams, strategies and philosophies from earlier basketball eras. The mods seem to back up these kids to keep the status quo around here. Forgive me for thinking outside of the box with my topics and for trying to engage in a spirited debate. I’ll leave you to yourselves

This quote and your OP make it sound like you're accusing everyone of being too zoomed in on the current era and having no concept of basketball history and how it changes. The thing is, no player who ever flirted with being considered the great of all-time has ever dropped out of top 10 discussion over a 30-year sample. Wilt and Bill are still generally considered in the 3-8 range. Magic and Bird (I see them anywhere from 3-12) have dropped off as other players rise but it's been over 30 years since they've played. George Mikan is probably the only player ever to be considered the greatest of all-time to not be in the considered in the top 10. But that was 60 years ago, and I'm not sure how important the GOAT debate was when the NBA was only a decade old.

There are guys who were in the top 10 and have since been leapfrogged (Dr. J, Big O, West, Moses), but those players were never seriously argued as the GOAT over Wilt or Russell. There's a very short list of players who have been widely considered the greatest of all-time, and that list gets harder to join the longer the league exists and the more players there are.

If Lebron is falling out of the top 10, that means that everyone else in the top 10 is falling out of the top 10. So I don't see the reason for singling out Lebron here. So many people have him at #1 or in their top 4. So for him not to be on lists... that means Shaq, Magic, Bird, Hakeem, Duncan, Wilt are all falling out too.

[Evenacus]

I think he will remain in the top 10 for sure. For me his greatest failure was that he failed to meet the expectations that he set himself. No other player ever generated that kind of hype while coming into the league and people were expecting him to dominate the league for years to come. That would not be such an issue had he not brazenly increased that burden on himself 1000 time over with the fabled " not one....." and in the end he failed to deliver the titles he himself promised and that will weigh heavily on his legacy.

On the other hand you have Jokic, 41st pick, no one cared about, steadily on course towards a third mvp and maybe more this year. If he wins 2 or 3 more rings, even stronger three peats he would join the top 10 easily. Not to mention his game is versatile and as a team, Nuggets play close the most aesthetically pleasing basketball in the league.

Giannis was higher but still not top 10 so he can still make the leap ( seriously doubt it). His game is way too unstable with too many weaknesses and he is not a force of nature like Shaq was.

Dončić was hyped and drafted 3rd but I don't see him making it to the top 10. His trajectory is promising but his play style ( similar to Harden imho) doesn't seem to be a catalyst towards final victory.

[JayMKE]

I very much doubt Lebron will fade from memory, very much doubt he’ll have a quiet retirement

[Hair Jordan]

Well for one there's actual footage of LeBron for reference to how good he was.

90% of the responses on this thread are frighteningly nearsighted. They’ll invent ways to measure players in 30-40 years that you can’t possibly imagine in real time and some talking head on RealGm in 2054 will say “there’s actual ABC for reference as to how good player XYZ was and we don’t have that for Lebron.” They’ll discredit Lebron and his era like others have discredited Wilt and his era on this very thread.

Feel free to bump this is 40 years to say "I told you so."

I’ll surely be dead by then but if you’re still alive, you can honor me by remembering this thread and telling yourself “damn, that idiot was right all along!”

[lessthanjake]

On average, every decade there’s been about 2 players that are the quality of today’s top 10. So, in 30 years, there will probably be about 6 more players of that quality. Which means that whoever we have in the bottom half of the top 10 at the moment has a pretty good chance of being outside the top 10 in 30 years. This doesn’t really apply to LeBron, since he’s generally put in the top half of the top 10, so he is too high to fall out that quickly. But there *are* players that many people instinctively think of as top 10 players that won’t be there in 30 years—guys like Bird, Kobe, Wilt, Hakeem, Steph, etc.

[Stribor]

One of most BS takes I have ever read. 1. Wilt is in a top 10 2. Generational talent comes 1 in 10 years. If LBJ is now top 3, at worst he might be top 6 30 years down the row. 3. Having younger generations more interested in cyber than in sports, one could see basketball played only for old geezers in 30 years cementing players of their youth at their positions.

[xb3at band1tx]

this is not a serious thread

[Hair Jordan]

Wilt is top 10 and so is Kareem. What am I missing here?

Also, Lebron’s legacy is a lot better than Wilt’s. Lebron has:

2x more championships
3x more Finals MVPs
6x more all-NBA 1st team(kinda silly teams can only have 1 center, otherwise Wilt and Russell would have been 1st team each year)
7x more all-star

And Wilt chasing records and then coming up short in the playoffs isn’t super impressive, especially when he played in the fastest era of all time, especially 1962. There was also one year Wilt refused to practice before noon. Lebron has nothing like that.

Meh, those are all cumulative/longevity related stats you mentioned. Wilt retired as the all time leader in both points AND rebounds. In fact, his rebounding record still stands and It’s unassailable. He won 3 consecutive MVP’s (something both Bron and Jordan didn’t do). He didn’t win any FMVP’s because it didn’t exist at the time. He could quite conceivably be the all time leader in blocked shots if they recorded that stat back then. So if the all time leader in points (when he retired), scoring titles (when he retired), rebounding (still is) and blocked shots (probably is) didn’t stop Wilt from backsliding, what makes you think Lebron will hold steady?

Championships isn’t a longevity stat. Even if you give Wilt a Finals MVP for 1967, he still has half of Lebron.

Finals MVPs
Jordan - 6
Lebron - 4
Magic - 3
Shaq - 3
Duncan - 3
Willis Reed - 2
Kawhi - 2
Durant - 2
Hakeem - 2
Kobe - 2
Bird - 2
Kareem - 2

You can’t really call it a longevity stat when Kawhi and Willis Reed are on the leaderboard, and Magic is 3rd all time. If you give Wilt one for 1967, he’s tied with Reed and Kawhi. He’s not 2nd all time.

Wilt refused to practice before noon one season, his numbers typically regressed in the playoffs, and he only won 2 championships. None of those things apply to Lebron.

Also, Wilt is in the top 10. I think the last Realgm poll had him at 6.

Meh, if Wilt jumped ship to the Celts in the early 60’s like Lebron jumped ship to the Heat he’d have like 8 or 9 titles to go along with his godly stats.

[Potential]

LeBron has a better chance of still being a top 10 player in the NBA in 30 years than whatever your title says

[UglyBugBall]

Lebron is cemented as a top five player of all time. Only casuals will bring up his finals record because they know the rest of his resume is bulletproof.

Your finals record is the most important part of your resume, no?

[MavsDirk41]

No it was a great time to be a fan of the sport in the 90s as well regardless of your thoughts

Did I say it wasn't?

God, y'all are so sensitive

Can't even take any praise about the modern day without immediately getting mad and going off about how the past was better, like chill man.

Who said i was mad lol?? I was just making a comment pal. Most days on here there are people downplaying the amount of talent in the nba during the 80s/90s and it gets old cause it’s ridiculous. Is the nba more talented today? If so it’s because the international talent, either way every era of the nba can be nitpicked for some flaws.

[Deshaun Taden]

The list will definitely be different in 30 years, it will likely have names we don't even know today. There's only 10 spots and obviously that means names will drop out.

If we had the top 10 list 30 years ago and today's top 10 list how many are in both? Maybe 2 or 3? And I'm sure 30 years ago people didn't actually want to put Magic or Jordan in, claiming it was too early. I honestly cannot remember the list 30 years ago but I feel like Dr. J was usually on it, and Big O, and those two are nowhere near the list today. 30 years from now I probably can't even tell you today's list.

Sports discussions like these are really mostly for younger people with some older people that can't let go. Most people care way less the older they get, there are usually more important things to consider. The sports media obviously makes it their business and they have an outsized voice in it, so I guess it's really just whatever they say will be recorded, and they'll skew older (since you're not going to have 15 year old sports casters making those lists, they'll likely be 45-70 or so, whereas the general population discussion is probably closer to 12-40 for the most active people).