Only 4 Contenders Remain... (Final Prediction)

[SweaterBae]

I really like Minnesota's chances. I think Denver are the favorites, narrowly followed by Boston. I then have the T-Wolves third

The problem I have here, in my dumbass opinion, is that only Denver has a shot against Boston. So if the Celtics are a lock in the east, there aren't 4 contenders.

Also Dallas as a contender is hilariously bad.

[Mavrelous]

It's DEN and BOS with 48% chance each and after that all bets are off, next best teams, Wolves and Knicks have been consistently good when healthy, but I don't see them winning, they lack the offense when things slow down and focus increases, Thunder lack size and I doubt their efficiency will sustain when physicality increases, then there are like 10 teams that can look like amazing or look like a lottery team, Bucks, Cavs, Clippers, Suns, Mavericks, Pelicans, etc...
I will say this, if I was a betting man, I would bet DEN against anyone, except the Suns.

[Triple M]

While I agree, I think the Jays view themselves as a Jordan/Pippen duo and therefore try to do too much to live up to the hype that surrounds them. If the Jays played more within their actual ability, which I think is more in line with Billups and Hamilton, then I think they could win.

I think how Boston could end up losing is by forcing Tatum to win 1 on 1 and shoots them out of the series (similarly to how Golden State was able to beat them even though on paper Boston was more talented)

Yes, but they have a greater margin for error this season than the last few. Their starting line-up is really, really good. Tatum may choke again in the ECF or Finals... who knows.

I guarantee Tatum chokes again because he tries to do too much to prove himself

The OP is being too dismissive of the Bucks but it's crazy to say this when Tatum dropped 46 vs the defending champs in Milwaukee game 6. Giannis was the best player that series and had 2 shots to close it; 1st at home, 2nd in Boston where they already won twice. Not to rehash old arguments but i never hear that the Bucks were still good as is to win. Personally i had them winning it all if they won game 7 because they matched up well with GSW.

[GiannisAnte34]

Yes, but they have a greater margin for error this season than the last few. Their starting line-up is really, really good. Tatum may choke again in the ECF or Finals... who knows.

I guarantee Tatum chokes again because he tries to do too much to prove himself

The OP is being too dismissive of the Bucks but it's crazy to say this when Tatum dropped 46 vs the defending champs in Milwaukee game 6. Giannis was the best player that series and had 2 shots to close it; 1st at home, 2nd in Boston where they already won twice. Not to rehash old arguments but i never hear that the Bucks were still good as is to win. Personally i had them winning it all if they won game 7 because they matched up well with GSW.

No Dame or Middleton and Giannis still had monster lines. Good luck

[SweaterBae]

Yes, but they have a greater margin for error this season than the last few. Their starting line-up is really, really good. Tatum may choke again in the ECF or Finals... who knows.

I guarantee Tatum chokes again because he tries to do too much to prove himself

The OP is being too dismissive of the Bucks but it's crazy to say this when Tatum dropped 46 vs the defending champs in Milwaukee game 6. Giannis was the best player that series and had 2 shots to close it; 1st at home, 2nd in Boston where they already won twice. Not to rehash old arguments but i never hear that the Bucks were still good as is to win. Personally i had them winning it all if they won game 7 because they matched up well with GSW.

Yet Boston has gotten better since then, and Milwaukee has gotten worse.

[sol537]

Update: only Denver, Boston, and Dallas remain as true contenders. One of those three will win IMO.

Knicks injury woes have taken them out of it.

[Eagle4]

Update: only Denver, Boston, and Dallas remain as true contenders. One of those three will win IMO.

Knicks injury woes have taken them out of it.

Lmao knicks were never contenders.

[TheHartBreakKid]

Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

Haha cmon man. You can’t give some out there odds and then play the “let’s revisit this later” card. That’s not how odds work

I’m not saying you’re making a legitimate bet on realgm, but atleast defend your argument with something better than that.


To think that NY and Dallas are more likely to win the championship than the field is just silly.

[DaGawd]

Update: only Denver, Boston, and Dallas remain as true contenders. One of those three will win IMO.

Knicks injury woes have taken them out of it.

Lmao knicks were never contenders.

your opinion

[TheHartBreakKid]

Update: only Denver, Boston, and Dallas remain as true contenders. One of those three will win IMO.

Knicks injury woes have taken them out of it.

Lmao knicks were never contenders.

your opinion

I don't have a problem with the Knicks being considered "contenders", and same to the Mavs, as long as we are also considering the Bucks, Clippers, Cavs, Wolves, Thunder, Lakers, Heat, Suns, Warriors, and 76ers contenders too.

[Wigginstime]

Lmao knicks were never contenders.

your opinion

I don't have a problem with the Knicks being considered "contenders", and same to the Mavs, as long as we are also considering the Bucks, Clippers, Cavs, Wolves, Thunder, Lakers, Heat, Suns, Warriors, and 76ers contenders too.

I always think of playoff teams as 3 tiers

Tier 1 - Favorites / Contenders
Top 2 to 4 teams who have >15% chance to win it all. Effectively this group of teams should have a better chance than the rest of the field combined

Tier 2 - Darkhorses
Teams who have between 3% - 15% chance to win it all

Tier 3 - Pretenders
Teams with less than 3% chance (i.e. its gonna take a miracle)

[Jta444]

Might wanna add the Lakers in here tbh… we all know Lebron and AD are just waiting for the playoffs to ramp it up. Dlo is back in his all-star form, Reaves better than last year + Olympic experience. Rui also playing very good lately. They are trending up the past few weeks meanwhile other teams like the Clippers, Kings, Suns are going down. Tbh if they get the Thunder/Wolves without KAT in the 1st round it’s gonna be a quick “upset” and from there their only real challenge will be the Nuggets who have a weaker bench than last year.

Remember this is a Laker team that had really close games vs the Nuggets last year, and they only got better while the Nuggets got worse. As for the East the Bucks and Celtics are gonna be easy for the Lakers. AD/Lebron duo is much better than Giannis/old Dame or the inconsistent Tatum/Brown

Lakers are being slept on and it perhaps is to Lebron’s liking that they fly under the radar and catch opponents off guard and he wins his most impressive championship of his career

[jfs1000d]

Can I get 20:1 on the field please? I'll even take 15:1.

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.

Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.

For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%

That’s way too low for Boston and Denver. More like 95% first round, 90% second round and 80% third round. Finals is 50%

I would say Celtics have a 68% chance to get to finals. Then? It’s a 50-50 game if it’s Denver. They would be favored big against anyone else.

That seems more logical.


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[HMFFL]

West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

Lillard having personal issues is probably why. I'd like to see Milwaukee be more competitive but it falls on the shoulders of Lillard.

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[TheHartBreakKid]

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.

Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.

For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%

That’s way too low for Boston and Denver. More like 95% first round, 90% second round and 80% third round. Finals is 50%

I would say Celtics have a 68% chance to get to finals. Then? It’s a 50-50 game if it’s Denver. They would be favored big against anyone else.

That seems more logical.


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The problem is that 68% is way too high of a percentage to give the Celtics regarding making the finals.

Here is a very realistic scenario:

-Based on the current standings, chances are they play either the 76ers or Heat in the first round;
-Let's say they have a 75% chance of beating either team (very favorable odds).
-Their next likely matchup would be against the Magic or the Knicks. Let's say they have an 80% chance of winning against those teams.
-They play the Bucks in the ECF, and they lets give them a very favorable 70% chance to win.


In this scenario, with even super favorable odds to the Celtics in each round, that would give them a 42% chance of making the finals. Obviously there is a chance they get more favorable matchups, (Bulls or hawks get the 8th seed, Bucks miss the ECF, etc).

Ultimately though, their chances to win the East is probably closer 50%, not 68%.

Considering that,even if we assume your odds for the West are correct (50% Denver, 50% Rest), and your odds are correct for a Denver/Celtics matchup (50%) AND the Celtics are lets say 70% favored against any non-Denver West team in the finals, That would still give the Celtics only a 30% chance of winning the whole thing.

There is a reason the Celtics "only" have a 37% of winning the title according to the official odds right now.


(Someone please correct me if my math is wrong...it's been a long time since I've taken stats )

[NyKnicks1714]

Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)

I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.

Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.

For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%

That’s way too low for Boston and Denver. More like 95% first round, 90% second round and 80% third round. Finals is 50%

I would say Celtics have a 68% chance to get to finals. Then? It’s a 50-50 game if it’s Denver. They would be favored big against anyone else.

That seems more logical.


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Cool, can you please give me 15:1 on Denver's 1st round opponent?

[TheHartBreakKid]

For me, off the top, the odds are more like 30% Celtics, 25% Nuggets, and 45% field.

[sol537]

Denver, Celtics, Dallas 5%… that’s it. (NY only if OG and Randle come back). “Garonteeeeeeeeed” -Barkley

[Riverwalk2021]

If the Celtics don't make it out the East, Tatum deserves to get flamed for the rest of his career for this choke job. The West is friggin tough and Murray's health has me concerned. I still favor Denver to get to Boston but it's a lot harder path than Boston has.

[Hitachi77]

I give Denver 25% if they can avoid the Suns and Boston 33% if they can avoid the Heat.