Only 4 Contenders Remain... (Final Prediction)

[MavsDirk41]

West
Denver 60%
Dallas 15%
Phoenix 10%
Field 15%

East
Boston 75%
Milwaukee 15%
Field 10%

Im pretty positive we will see Denver and Boston in the finals this year. I really dont see anybody in the east beating Boston 4 out of 7. Milwaukee is the best chance but they just look out of sorts at times.

I think it really depends on if KP can hold up for a full run, if he goes down suddenly Boston is very reliant on consistent hot 3 pt shooting with small ball line ups. 1st and 2nd round matchups against Miami/Philly and then New York could be grueling for KP and Horford

Very true indeed. Porzingis is the x factor for Boston. I really like their defense with Horford, Tatum, Brown, Holiday, and White. Imo that is the best 5 man defensive lineup in the nba. I know Holiday is dealing with an injury right now as well so gotta see how he is looking in a couple weeks.

[sol537]

The KAT injury took them out of it IMO. Still really good, but not enough.

And yet, Towns is scheduled to be back by the playoffs...

Plus they’ve been 6-3 without him. Nice to have Naz Reid.

And no respect for OKC?

OKC are a regular season paper tiger that doesn't have the experience or interior size to get to the finals. Need to take their lumps still but they may get there soon.

As for Minny.... KAT may not be 100% upon return and could throw things off even further. Let's see... I got Dallas over Minny in probability.

[ryguy613]

Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

whats your methodology?

Gut & experience methodology

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

[sol537]

whats your methodology?

Gut & experience methodology

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

Always trust the gut, my friend

[sol537]

Why do I fell like this is kind of trolling MIL fans Boston is favored for sure, but MIL def can beat Boston. The field easily in this thread. The 2 best teams in the league after the defending Champs are in the East as far as i'm concerned.

I think we see a Denver Boston Finals, and my head says Denver because of Jokics mismatch, but my heart says Celtics because I trust their health and depth more.

I think the West will come down to matchups and how bad the young teams in the playoff moments are for Minny and OKC. I could easily see the Lakers making some noise given the matchup. If they get an OKC team in the first rond, they could win that series and then play either the Pels or Clips in the 2nd :lol MAvs and PHX obviously could make the same run.

It's hard for me to see a team out West beating Denver, unless Luka/Kyrie go off like he and LeBron did in 2016. I'm keeping my eye on the Clippers, they are built for the playoffs this year, as well as Minny if they can get right before the playoffs which I don't think they can.

Th East is going to simply come down to who preforms better on the road between MIL and Bos, and they beat any team not named Denver out West.

Denver-Boston-Mil are the only people i'd bet on to win it all

Hoping for a Boston Minny finals

I have ZERO faith in Milwaukee. Here's why:

-> Dame is old and looks out of sorts
-> Doc is the coach
-> They're a good team... not a great team... need greatness to win it all
-> They choked last playoffs
-> They chocked lots of big games this season in the 2nd half
-> Giannis is shook at the FT line
-> Their team is pretty old and gimpy

Boston in 5 if they face off.

[ryguy613]

Gut & experience methodology

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

Always trust the gut, my friend

how come you like Dallas substantially more than a team like New Orleans? Theyre a well balanced team with lots of talent and a version of Zion we havent seen yet. I feel like Dallas and NO are at least pretty evenly matched. not sure i wouldnt lean more toward NO if BI is healthy.

[DOT]

Shouldn't it be "the court" rather than "the field" since we're talking about basketball?

[Capn'O]

The Field is much stronger than advertised. As much as I hate to, I've gotta give the Heat a 10% or greater chance at the finals. They just keep doing it.

[sol537]

The Field is much stronger than advertised. As much as I hate to, I've gotta give the Heat a 10% or greater chance at the finals. They just keep doing it.

This is the year the Heat’s flame… goes out…

[sol537]

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

Always trust the gut, my friend

how come you like Dallas substantially more than a team like New Orleans? Theyre a well balanced team with lots of talent and a version of Zion we havent seen yet. I feel like Dallas and NO are at least pretty evenly matched. not sure i wouldnt lean more toward NO if BI is healthy.

NO too inexperienced like OKC… no PG floor general… inconsistent… and Ingram’s recent injury…

[zero rings]

The OKC disrespect is wild. 0% chance? Really? They’re tied for first in the West and have the second best point differential in the league. They also have a top 5 player on their team and are 3-1 against Denver.

“Bu but young team don’t win championships!” Young teams are also almost never this good. This team is legit and they could absolutely win the West this year.

[shrink]

And yet, Towns is scheduled to be back by the playoffs...

Plus they’ve been 6-3 without him. Nice to have Naz Reid.

And no respect for OKC?

OKC are a regular season paper tiger that doesn't have the experience or interior size to get to the finals. Need to take their lumps still but they may get there soon.

As for Minny.... KAT may not be 100% upon return and could throw things off even further. Let's see... I got Dallas over Minny in probability.

I guess we’ll see.

Even without Towns (and he’s supposed to be back), MIN is a tough matchup for the Mavs. The Wolves have much better size (Gobert,Towns, Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels) and terrific perimeter defenders. Wolves have won four of the last five

Watch on YouTube

[sol537]

The OKC disrespect is wild. O% chance? Really? They’re tied for first in the West and have the second best point differential in the league. They also have a top 5 player on their team and are 3-1 against Denver.

“Bu but young team don’t win championships!” Young teams are also almost never this good. This team is legit and they could absolutely win the West this year.

Maybe they reach the WCF… maybe. Can’t see them winning the WCF and the Finals. Not this team. Not this year.

[sol537]

Plus they’ve been 6-3 without him. Nice to have Naz Reid.

And no respect for OKC?

OKC are a regular season paper tiger that doesn't have the experience or interior size to get to the finals. Need to take their lumps still but they may get there soon.

As for Minny.... KAT may not be 100% upon return and could throw things off even further. Let's see... I got Dallas over Minny in probability.

I guess we’ll see.

Even without Towns (and he’s supposed to be back), MIN is a tough matchup for the Mavs. The Wolves have much better size (Gobert,Towns, Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels) and terrific perimeter defenders. Wolves have won four of the last five

Watch on YouTube

Did both Luka and Kyrie play in those 4 Minny wins? And did Gafford and Lively play in those?

[xdrta+]

Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

whats your methodology?

That's easy. Pulling numbers out of the air.

[sol537]

Please see my previous thread here on this topic from December.

As I see it now, there are only 4 legit contenders that have a shot at the title this year. Here are my percentage breakdowns:

Coming out of the West: Denver (65%), Dallas (17%), The Field (18%)

Coming out of the East: Boston (78%), NYK (10%), The Field (12%)

2024 NBA Championship Odds: Denver (48%), Boston (40%), Dallas (4%), NYK (3%), The Field (5%)

Am I wrong? Is there less than a ~88% chance that one of DEN or BOS wins it all this year?

whats your methodology?

That's easy. Pulling numbers out of the air.

Not air... buttocks.

[One Last Shot]

Gut & experience methodology

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

Always trust the gut, my friend

Really? If you always trust your guts and experience methodology, how much money did you lose with this prediction?

GSW are like Rocky in the beginning of Rocky 3. Celtics are Mr T. GSW has been coddled and distracted. BOS in 5.

[Sealab2024]

Dallas isn't winning anything so long as their best player doesn't play defense.

[GiannisAnte34]

Dallas isn't winning anything so long as their best player doesn't play defense.

and their coach is Jason Kidd

I would take Doc Rivers 10 / 10 times over Kidd

[sol537]

hahaha ok fair enough, but then how are you deriving your odds percentages? like, why is Dallas 4% instead of... 5%?

Always trust the gut, my friend

Really? If you always trust your guts and experience methodology, how much money did you lose with this prediction?

GSW are like Rocky in the beginning of Rocky 3. Celtics are Mr T. GSW has been coddled and distracted. BOS in 5.

Solid prediction at the time... Boston had a fair chance of winning the title if Tatum and co. didn't crumble under the pressure. Nearly half or more of the analysts picked Boston as well...