How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan?

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How many games do the 99 Spurs win without Duncan?

Less than 20
3
13%
20-25
4
17%
26-30
5
21%
31-35
3
13%
36-40
3
13%
More than 40
6
25%
 
Total votes: 24

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How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#1 » by One_and_Done » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:13 am

The more I watch the 99 Spurs, the less impressed I am with them outside of Duncan. The supporting cast just sucked.

I was just rewatching some 99 playoff games, and it's a joke.

Spoiler:
One_and_Done wrote:Following up on my earlier comment I wanted to break down a pretty typical stretch of play for the 99 Spurs, to show just how much of a one man show they were. I’ve chosen the deciding game in the finals, but honestly I could have picked a dozen games.

I want to start with 2:20 left in the 3rd, because it’s heading into crunch time for this game, and the Knicks are leading the Spurs 54-50.

The Spurs struggle to get the ball to Duncan, who is doubled in the post. He scores anyway and is fouled, then makes the FT.

Knicks ball, Spreewell burns his man for a contested jumper. Spurs go back to Duncan, who banks in a long range 2.

Knicks travel. Back to Duncan. He drives and LJ fouls him to stop him scoring. Duncan makes both.

Spreewell again beats his man to score. The rest of the Spurs pass the ball around because Duncan is so doubled. They almost turn it over, but miraculously Malik Rose draws a foul before turning it over. He makes 1 FT.

Spreewell misses this time, and Duncan draws a loose ball foul on the rebound. Duncan makes one of two.

Queue up the 4th Qrt, and Jaren Jackson bricks a shot. The Knicks race up the other end, but Duncan gets the block. Duncan then runs up the floor and banks in a long range jumper while doubled. It’s now 61-58 Spurs, and Duncan has 26 of their points and 10 of their last 11 points.

Spree scores yet again on the other end due to horrid Spurs perimeter D. Aside from being useless on D, Sean Elliot doesn’t have a basket yet. Down the other end and Duncan tries to find Elliot on the pass. Elliot fumbles it of course.

Knicks ball. Spreewell hits a 2 right over Malik Rose who fouls him in the process (of course)., and makes the FT. Spreewell and Houston have 22 of the Knicks 25 second half points so far, while the rest of their guys (i.e. their paint scorers) have only 3 points, because they can’t get anything through Duncan. David Robinson has been out of the game this entire stretch btw.

The commentators complain Duncan needs some help from the other Spurs. “Or does he” quips one, as he makes a contested hook shot.

Spree is then illegally defended by 2 Spurs, because illegal D still exists and of course the 2 Spurs perimeter guys somehow commit illegal D.

D.Rob checks back in. Houston is guarded by Duncan, in an effort to stifle the Knicks perimeter players. Houston passes rather than try to get by Duncan, He gets the ball back later in the clock and bricks up a rushed shot. Duncan finally misses a long range jumper. Spree gets an open 3, because of course the Spurs perimeter guys can’t defend anyone. Knicks up 66-63. Duncan has 12 of the Spurs last 13 points. Duncan is doubled, and promptly scores again over both guys.

Spree scores over the Spurs hopeless perimeter D yet again. Duncan is getting so much defensive attention in the post that Avery gets an open layup, the first non-Duncan basket in long time.

Robinson gets a steal (finally someone else does something), and on the other end Duncan throws a nice pass to D.Rob in the post; but he is fouled and can’t convert. Robinson goes one of two, and has 11 points.

Avery tries to score, but Camby swats his shot. Elliot then misses yet again, not even close. Two of the non-Duncan Spurs then commit illegal defence AGAIN. I hasten to add that on almost all these plays Duncan is the primary post defender, not Robinson. Elliot then commits a loose ball foul. Useless. Elliot has 2 points, 5 rebounds and 4 fouls, while playing no D.

Duncan has to double Spree to stop the Spurs perimeter guys giving up a basket again, but he passes to Camby who scores in the paint with D.Rob so out of position he might as well not even be there. Camby gets the foul and FT too of course.

Avery ignores Duncan and misses a horrendous shot. On the other end Duncan gets the rebound. Spurs come up the other end, and struggle to get the ball into Duncan. Jaren eventually bricks up a hopeless shot, and D.Rob gets the rebound and is fouled again. I should note that on these plays where D.Rob is fouled he isn’t even close to scoring. He actually has both shots blocked, but gets a ticky tack foul each time. D.Rob manages to hit both. Spurs are down 1.

Knicks have a 2 on 1 and Duncan has to concede the shot to Camby while trying to guard LJ. Mercifully D.Rob scores on the other end in the paint, missing the FT. The Spurs have a timeout and Pop yells at the team for creating an overlap on D by not rotating (i.e. not helping Duncan).

Knicks miss a 3., but on the other end they again don’t go to Duncan and Mario Ellie misses. Spree then scores a jumper on Elliot like he’s not even there. Pop is yelling like a mad man, and this time the Spurs go to Duncan. He is doubled, and kicks it out immediately for a wide open Ellie 3. Tied game again.

Duncan again resorts to defending Spree but this time he is called for a pretty unlucky reach in foul. On the other end Elliot tries to run another non-Duncan play again, gets into trouble, and throws it to #21 with no time on the shot clock while he is on on the 3 point line. Duncan has to take the contested 3 because he has no options, but the Spurs rebound. This time they go right to Duncan, and he’s immediately doubled and fouled. He hits 1. 2:30 left. Spurs down 77-76.

Spree tries to drive and Duncan blocks it so hard it is jammed against the rim. Jump ball, which D.Rob loses. NY timeout. Duncan take Spree on the perimeter, and Spree can’t get any separation. He runs out of time and makes a desperation pass followed by a 24 second violation.

Spurs go to Duncan in the post. He is literally triple teamed. The Spurs get a huge overlap, but do nothing with it. The play ends with D.Rob missing a weird hook layup by a preposterous amount. Knicks miss, so it’s Spurs ball, down 1, under a minute to go. Again to Duncan in the post. He’s hard doubled in the post, and passes, resulting in Avery wide open in the corner, and that’s the final points of the game. The next NY play Spree is contested by Duncan and misses it. D.Rob then misses his next shot by a mile, because for some reason they don’t go to Duncan again when that is basically what they should be doing every single play. Spree takes the last shot, but is contested by Duncan and can’t even hit the rim.

If you go back through those final 14+ minutes, Duncan scored 15 of their last 28 points, and another 7 of those points were a direct result of Duncan being doubled. His team mates were so bad on D that Duncan had to help guard the perimeter threats, and his team mates kept committing dumb fouls and turnovers (2 illegal defences in a quarter of a finals game!?). D.Rob played like a role player, which is closer to what he was than a star. People get too hung up on advanced stats to admit that D.Rob was really pretty weak for a 2nd star, even in 99. The team relied on Duncan for almost everything.


When you look at the 99 run, it's pretty unimpressive. D.Rob's stats in the Lakers series for instance were 13.3ppg & 6.5 rpg in 28mpg.

In today's league how many games do you think they win without Duncan? How about in a typical season?
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#2 » by One_and_Done » Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm

Really? No takers?
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#3 » by jkvonny » Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:01 pm

You have a lot of time on your hands.....

But, just to partake in this.
Utah Jazz (back to back defending WCF champs, ran into the Bulls) probably wins the NBA title that season (Jazz owned the Spurs during the '90s, playoffs and regular season). Gets the 1 seed in the West, instead of 2nd seed. Returns back to the NBA Finals, 3rd times a charm. Beats NYKs in the NBA Finals.

Spurs would still win about 30 plus games (strike season). And the "soft" Spurs and Robinson/Keith Van Horn gets pushed around in the paint by the bigs in the playoffs again. We don't win our 1st NBA title until the 2003 (welcome aboard Manu and Parker!). Along with Van Horn as the backup Center/PF (who we got in the 1997 draft 2nd pick). Robinson's final season.

In the meantime, Philly Sixers won the lottery (instead of 2nd pick, Van Horn) drafts Duncan, and builds an elite team with Iverson/Duncan combo. And this time, Philly beats the Lakers in the 2001 NBA Finals. Duncan NBA Finals MVP.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#4 » by Calvin Klein » Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:49 pm

I remember watching those playoffs and the spurs were by far the best team. The finals wasn’t even a question who would win. It was only a matter of seeing if the knicks would win at least one game.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#5 » by Myth » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:06 pm

jkvonny wrote:You have a lot of time on your hands.....

But, just to partake in this.
Utah Jazz (back to back defending WCF champs, ran into the Bulls) probably wins the NBA title that season (Jazz owned the Spurs during the '90s, playoffs and regular season). Gets the 1 seed in the West, instead of 2nd seed. Returns back to the NBA Finals, 3rd times a charm. Beats NYKs in the NBA Finals.

Spurs would still win about 30 plus games (strike season). And the "soft" Spurs and Robinson/Keith Van Horn gets pushed around in the paint by the bigs in the playoffs again. We don't win our 1st NBA title until the 2003 (welcome aboard Manu and Parker!). Along with Van Horn as the backup Center/PF (who we got in the 1997 draft 2nd pick). Robinson's final season.

In the meantime, Philly Sixers won the lottery (instead of 2nd pick, Van Horn) drafts Duncan, and builds an elite team with Iverson/Duncan combo. And this time, Philly beats the Lakers in the 2001 NBA Finals. Duncan NBA Finals MVP.

Wait, you think Spurs win 2003 championship without Duncan? No way that happens. They don’t get out of the West.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#6 » by Capn'O » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:10 pm

25-27 imo. Likely first round out. Duncan was him.

Looks like somebody isn't accounting for the strike shortened season.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#7 » by One_and_Done » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:11 pm

Capn'O wrote:25-27 imo. Duncan was him.

Looks like somebody isn't accounting for the strike shortened season.

No. This is clearly assuming an 82 game season.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#8 » by Capn'O » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:16 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Capn'O wrote:25-27 imo. Duncan was him.

Looks like somebody isn't accounting for the strike shortened season.

No. This is clearly assuming an 82 game season.


Roughly .500 team imo. Bereft of offensive talent but they could punch above their level.


It's really too bad we didn't have Pat. Duncan would've cooked Pat at that stage but we could have at least afforded more single coverage.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#9 » by jkvonny » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:28 pm

Myth wrote:
jkvonny wrote:You have a lot of time on your hands.....

But, just to partake in this.
Utah Jazz (back to back defending WCF champs, ran into the Bulls) probably wins the NBA title that season (Jazz owned the Spurs during the '90s, playoffs and regular season). Gets the 1 seed in the West, instead of 2nd seed. Returns back to the NBA Finals, 3rd times a charm. Beats NYKs in the NBA Finals.

Spurs would still win about 30 plus games (strike season). And the "soft" Spurs and Robinson/Keith Van Horn gets pushed around in the paint by the bigs in the playoffs again. We don't win our 1st NBA title until the 2003 (welcome aboard Manu and Parker!). Along with Van Horn as the backup Center/PF (who we got in the 1997 draft 2nd pick). Robinson's final season.

In the meantime, Philly Sixers won the lottery (instead of 2nd pick, Van Horn) drafts Duncan, and builds an elite team with Iverson/Duncan combo. And this time, Philly beats the Lakers in the 2001 NBA Finals. Duncan NBA Finals MVP.

Wait, you think Spurs win 2003 championship without Duncan? No way that happens. They don’t get out of the West.

Yes! :P

We still have Danny Ferry, too! More playing time for Mr Ferry! lol

But, yes. Maybe the Nets wins it that season instead....
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#10 » by jkvonny » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:29 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Capn'O wrote:25-27 imo. Duncan was him.

Looks like somebody isn't accounting for the strike shortened season.

No. This is clearly assuming an 82 game season.

Oh ok. Then it would be about 45-50 wins.

If Robinson, Elliott both stay healthy. And not injured like 1997.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#11 » by Sealab2024 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:31 pm

The choice of Van Horn over Duncan triggers the darkest timeline where Van Horn becomes the next Larry Bird, The NBA leaves TNT for the Sci Fi Network and basketball shoes become to expensive to run in.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#12 » by JustBuzzin » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:40 pm

Sealab2024 wrote:The choice of Van Horn over Duncan triggers the darkest timeline where Van Horn becomes the next Larry Bird, The NBA leaves TNT for the Sci Fi Network and basketball shoes become to expensive to run in.

Van Horn was hyped for sure back in the day. :lol:

He was supposed to be what Dirk became.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#13 » by jkvonny » Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:00 am

JustBuzzin wrote:
Sealab2024 wrote:The choice of Van Horn over Duncan triggers the darkest timeline where Van Horn becomes the next Larry Bird, The NBA leaves TNT for the Sci Fi Network and basketball shoes become to expensive to run in.

Van Horn was hyped for sure back in the day. :lol:

He was supposed to be what Dirk became.

Yep, the American Dirk.
Pretty good long career with the Nets, Sixers, Bucks, Knicks, Mavs, etc. But, yes. Nothing too spectacular.

Part of the good Utah Utes team that almost beat Kentucky in the '98 College NC game.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#14 » by CIN-C-STAR » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:07 am

I think they still win more than 40 games and are around a .500 team.
Nothing too impressive but still a playoff team.
They weren't great for sure but it was a different time too. The game overall was uglier. People couldn't shoot like today. It was a defensive league.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#15 » by One_and_Done » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:08 am

CIN-C-STAR wrote:I think they still win more than 40 games and are around a .500 team.
Nothing too impressive but still a playoff team.
They weren't great for sure but it was a different time too. The game overall was uglier. People couldn't shoot like today. It was a defensive league.

I dunno man. They look so bad without Duncan in these games. D.Rob had degraded quite alot, even factoring in the league differences.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#16 » by CIN-C-STAR » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:20 am

One_and_Done wrote:
CIN-C-STAR wrote:I think they still win more than 40 games and are around a .500 team.
Nothing too impressive but still a playoff team.
They weren't great for sure but it was a different time too. The game overall was uglier. People couldn't shoot like today. It was a defensive league.

I dunno man. They look so bad without Duncan in these games. D.Rob had degraded quite alot, even factoring in the league differences.


No arguments there.
D. Rob really took a dip that season, just age and the injury catching up, but he was still a heck of a defender. That was the first season he didn't make an All-Star team that he was healthy, but if Duncan wasn't there he'd almost surely have put up better #s and been selected.
The rest of the team were one-way players or guys with huge deficiencies in their games somewhere for sure, but I will say they were a professional, veteran group.
I mean, all I said was around a .500 team lol. I think one All-Star, good team defense (Pop's offense was not very creative back then lol but he knew what he was doing defensively I think) and a cast of professional, veteran role players gets you to around .500 back then.

I do wish Ewing had been healthy for the Finals. That was a fun and pretty loaded Knicks team, but what a weird season it was for them to lose their franchise icon only to then make an improbable Finals run only to then have to face the Twin Towers team that would have been precisely the matchup you'd want Ewing for :nonono: :banghead:
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#17 » by jkvonny » Fri Mar 29, 2024 3:09 am

One_and_Done wrote:
CIN-C-STAR wrote:I think they still win more than 40 games and are around a .500 team.
Nothing too impressive but still a playoff team.
They weren't great for sure but it was a different time too. The game overall was uglier. People couldn't shoot like today. It was a defensive league.

I dunno man. They look so bad without Duncan in these games. D.Rob had degraded quite alot, even factoring in the league differences.

If healthy, we'd still be a playoff team, over .500

Still had the same core players that were winning a lot (minus the injury ridden 1997 season) during the '90s.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#18 » by One_and_Done » Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:17 am

jkvonny wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
CIN-C-STAR wrote:I think they still win more than 40 games and are around a .500 team.
Nothing too impressive but still a playoff team.
They weren't great for sure but it was a different time too. The game overall was uglier. People couldn't shoot like today. It was a defensive league.

I dunno man. They look so bad without Duncan in these games. D.Rob had degraded quite alot, even factoring in the league differences.

If healthy, we'd still be a playoff team, over .500

Still had the same core players that were winning a lot (minus the injury ridden 1997 season) during the '90s.

1) that's not entirely true. There had been player turnover
2) alot of those old vets look visibly degraded, including D.Rob, Elliot and Avery.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#19 » by ChipotleWest » Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:20 am

Spurs won the ship when MJ retired, it should have been Bulls vs Spurs.
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Re: How many games would the 99 Spurs win without Duncan? 

Post#20 » by jkvonny » Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:36 am

One_and_Done wrote:
jkvonny wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I dunno man. They look so bad without Duncan in these games. D.Rob had degraded quite alot, even factoring in the league differences.

If healthy, we'd still be a playoff team, over .500

Still had the same core players that were winning a lot (minus the injury ridden 1997 season) during the '90s.

1) that's not entirely true. There had been player turnover
2) alot of those old vets look visibly degraded, including D.Rob, Elliot and Avery.

We had Mario Ellie, Jackson, Rose, Kersey, Daniels, Perdue, Kerr, etc as well!

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