NBA players who ended being completely different than their original profiles predicted they would be

[UcanUwill]

Approximately 0 people predicted that Giannis would wind up bodying everybody when he came into the league. He was skinny stick man.

Predicting Giannis was probably impossible. If you predicted this, you have to be mad man rather than Basketball genius. He was ball handling perimeter player as rookie, it is funny to remember, there was something outstanding there right away, but those Tayshaun Prince comparisons and all is funny now.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Lots of interesting ones but Brook becoming one of the best 3 point shooting bigs late in his career is pretty wild.

[dhsilv2]

I mean...do we need to go further than Leonard? Questionable shot coming out and is now a knock down shooter all over the court and a go to first option scorer.

I remember, at least in the past, there was this belief that big hands make it harder to be a shooter. And I never understood that. Granted, I do not have big hands, I have very small hands in fact, but I also grew up watching Sabonis play, and his touch was incredible and his big hands only seemed like an advantage there. So, maybe it makes it harder to be a good shooter if you have big hands, and I just do not know that, but it always seemed bogus to me. To me, it is far easier to shoot small ball than big ball, but I dont know... There were people projecting that Kawhi will never be a shooter primarily because oh his hand size. but nowadays, this kind off went away when projecting skills, at least it seems to me. Can't really think of recent prospects who get blasted because their hands are too big...

This was the Shaq excuse, it's not a real thing, especially when people would be saying, "it's like shooting a tennis ball", I don't think people were actually thinking of how small a tennis ball is compared to a basketball and how large someone's hands would need to be for it to be like that.

It would be different if Shaq was bricking and a terrible shooter with good form.

That was for sure the Shaq thing.

With Leonard it was that he wasn't a good shooter in college. Even his free throw shooting has significantly improved from his 2 years in college. We have seen guys become better 3 point shooters because they learn to mostly become catch and shoot guys. Leonard is now a solidly 80%+ free throw shooter who's an elite shooter off the dribble anywhere on the court. Vs 25% 3 point shooting in college (near 30 but under his second year) and mid 70's free throw shooter. I mean the guy is near 90% this year for context. That's a leap we rarely if ever see on free throw shooting.

[Rishkar]

If I remember correctly, Draymond was drafted for his offense and scouts were worried about what position he would guard

[beeshma]

Jimmy G Buckets: it was hoped he would develop into a 3 and D starter.

[dhsilv2]

If I remember correctly, Draymond was drafted for his offense and scouts were worried about what position he would guard

His passing game is pretty darn impressive so they weren't completely off.

[Drakeem]

Any examples?

IMO, Isaiah Hartenstein is that. If we go way back, if you remember, IH was often called - next DIrk. He was German center shooting 3s and scoring a lot of points in youth competitions. That was hoe he put himself on NBA radar in the first place. I think it is clear to say that he is not that player in the NBA, he is defensive specialist who moved away from shooting long jumpers at all. By the time he moved to Žalgiris, I watched most of his games there, and by then, one thing I really loved about his game was defensive awareness, he simply knew where to be on the court defensively. Not to pat myself on the back, but he was one of those very rare Euros, who was basically buried at the end of the bench, but I still liked as NBA prospect. He definitely panned out, even tho it took time.

Another one, maybe not as good example as Hartenstein, but another center from my country that I have watched all the time prior to his NBA days, was my own Jonas Valančiūnas. He kind off is what he supposed to be, but also not, IMO. Valančiūnas was far more of defensive prospect that Hartenstein even, but in the NBA now, it is complete opposite, Hart is defense anchor where Jonas is defensive liability most of the time. Young pre draft JV was this - he was very very energetic, constant screen setter, somewhat promising shot blocker and just absolutely dominant pick and roll finisher. He was often compared to Anthony Davis, his length was exiting. TO think of it now, it is laughable almost. Current Jonas is slow, post hub, he is not known for running pick rolls that much, or blocking shots. He always had elite touch and finishing from the post, even when super young, and I thought once he adds weight and strength, it will be over, because he only struggled with getting great post position, when there, he was basically a bucket. But what I did not anticipate, was how much slower and less active he would become with added mileage and weight. He definitely change his identity completely. He never had significant injuries, but when you comparing him before draft to now, it feels like he did have his achilles torn or smth.

I'll cosign Jonas. I was excited as hell as a Raptors fan in his rookie season. Dude could legit move. Quick, good defensive instincts, great in the pick and roll, and he could pop out for a little mid range shot. I thought he was going to be perfect for where basketball was going, and then he inexplicably added like 30 pounds and became a plodding low post center. He could have been so, so much better.

[SelfishPlayer]

Deshawn Stevenson was profiled to be the next Michael Jordan. That never panned out

That was one website, which has not grown very much...

[TheGeneral99]

With respect to the OP, I think JV is a very good 1 and 1 defender and rebounder, but he's a bad help defender because he's too slow. He would have been a more effective/valuable player in the 1990s and 2000s, but by the mid-2010s teams were started to exploit players like him in the pick and roll.

Still he's had a very nice career and is a perennial 15 and 10 player despite only averaging 25-30mpg.

[Ambrose]

Towns was lauded for his defensive potential out of Kentucky. We knew he could shoot/score, but not to the level he's shown in the NBA.

[PistolPeteJR]

When I was 8, I thought I'd be the next TMac. I ended up being about 8" shorter with about 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 XP separating his skill and mine.

[YogurtProducer]

Brook Lopez was projecting to be your typical 2000s lumbering post big with mediocre defense but he totally changed and adapted his game. Greg Monroe should have taken notes

Yes, I once made a thread about players who reinvented their game the most through out their careers, and Brook Lopez was the guy I mentioned. Came into a league as non shooting post player with bad rebounding, then became a floor spacer, then literally 10 years into NBA career decided to become elite shot blocker... Like, how does that even happen? I have said this before, but Brook Lopez is underrated Basketball genius, whatever his team needed him to do, he just made it part oh his game. Probably overrated shooter, being called ''Splash mountain'' and all, but he can shoot, and you would have thought he will ever shoot 3s, back in 2009.

Brook Lopez was blocking a lot of shots dating back to the new jersey nets days

[Hair Jordan]

Zion was supposed to be a Barkley/Shaq hybrid. So far he’s putting up worse numbers than Chris Bosh. Jokic was supposed to be a long term project as any 2nd rounder would be and so far he’s got 2 MVP’s, a title and a FMVP.

[UcanUwill]

With respect to the OP, I think JV is a very good 1 and 1 defender and rebounder, but he's a bad help defender because he's too slow. He would have been a more effective/valuable player in the 1990s and 2000s, but by the mid-2010s teams were started to exploit players like him in the pick and roll.

Still he's had a very nice career and is a perennial 15 and 10 player despite only averaging 25-30mpg.

I agree, I think pick and roll D has been biggest killer for him, he is simply slow. But what I meant, he was not projected to be so slow, because he wasn't. Looking back, honestly he never was good defender and he never had hops, but comparisons where all over the place even including KG. And to think, comparing Jonas to KG is absurd, but it was brought up.

All in all, I think Jonas is still a clear proof, that if you are a good player, you can still be in the NBA while being primarily a post scorer. He is not well regarded passer, or shooter, or shot blocker even, but he is still pretty good player and he is in the NBA. He is contra argument to Jahlil Okafor, Greg Monroe defenders, who believe the only reason these guys failed is just style of basketball that is being preferred, instead of these guys just not being very good.

[UcanUwill]

Brook Lopez was blocking a lot of shots dating back to the new jersey nets days

You are correct, looking up his stats now, he always blocked shots, more than I assumed, It was just that 2019 or 2020 season, where I remember he managed to increase his blocks per game number quite significantly, that really gaslighted me at the time.

Not too long ago, he was a center who was not finishing many games for MIL, because he was believed to be a bit slow, but then he played himself into DPOY conversations, so Brook just flipping his game on its head has ben constant, and least that is how it feels to me.

[TheGeneral99]

With respect to the OP, I think JV is a very good 1 and 1 defender and rebounder, but he's a bad help defender because he's too slow. He would have been a more effective/valuable player in the 1990s and 2000s, but by the mid-2010s teams were started to exploit players like him in the pick and roll.

Still he's had a very nice career and is a perennial 15 and 10 player despite only averaging 25-30mpg.

I agree, I think pick and roll D has been biggest killer for him, he is simply slow. But what I meant, he was not projected to be so slow, because he wasn't. Looking back, honestly he never was good defender and he never had hops, but comparisons where all over the place even including KG. And to think, comparing Jonas to KG is absurd, but it was brought up.

All in all, I think Jonas is still a clear proof, that if you are a good player, you can still be in the NBA while being primarily a post scorer. He is not well regarded passer, or shooter, or shot blocker even, but he is still pretty good player and he is in the NBA. He is contra argument to Jahlil Okafor, Greg Monroe defenders, who believe the only reason these guys failed is just style of basketball that is being preferred, instead of these guys just not being very good.

Yes, I agree.

As a Raptors fan who saw JV for his first 7 years, he was really good for us because he was a great post defender, a great rebounder and an excellent post-up player who could also hit a mid-range shot and his free throws. Just a great guy to have who you could feed in the post for an easy bucket or he will get you easy 2nd chance buckets with his offensive rebounding.

The issue was that it was tough to play him late in the game because he would be exploited defensively so Casey would often sit him at the end of games and play Ibaka at C instead.

[shi-woo]

People will deny it, but a ton of scouts had Anthony Edwards labeled as a low IQ player and questioned his love for the game and dedication to the craft. Potential Ben McLemore was what a lot of people were saying. Didn't take long to realize those were just lazy, probably racist profiles of a player. Maybe Ant was just bored in college, but idk how so many scouts missed the ridiculous motor of this guy. He still went #1, but still.

Never in a million years would I have believed you that Joel Embiid would reach his max potential and still find myself yelling "Stop shooting 3's!" at my computer screen

He's a Legend of the game now, but people don't remember how shocked the world was when Westbrooks name was called 4th that year. Like, everyone was expecting a trade to be announced, and many analysts were wondering how he went over the starter on his own team Collison. I don't think anyone could have realistically seen him turning into an MVP, and many viewed him like a better athletic Avery Bradley type of defensive stopper. Obviously that narrative changed real quick, and started getting comped to Rose but that wasn't the case till after summerleague

Jimmy Butler was another player that even when he kept developing in front of our eyes, we refused to believe it. It wasn't until that run with MIA in the bubble that his value was finally fully realized by most fans and casuals. When Rose went down Jimmy stepped up shortly after and went on the Kawhii/George arc of starting of as a solid rotation player, then elite 3D guy, then good starter, to All-Star. No one wanted to believe it with Jimmy though till it was too late (for philly fans atleast )

[Chokic]

Donovan Mitchell was lauded as a defensive guard coming out of Louisville akin to Avery bradley.

[UcanUwill]

People will deny it, but a ton of scouts had Anthony Edwards labeled as a low IQ player and questioned his love for the game and dedication to the craft.

This is absolute truth. I do not know much about American prospects, but man do I remember those ANT scouting reports. I just brought this up on No Dunks podcast comment section few days ago. It was one of those drafts, where no one really desired number one pick that much, and I remember JE Skeets reading Anthony Edwards scouting report on a show that one time. These guys never talk about college basketball or prospects, it is not their thing and they aren't pretending to know anything, but one time that upcoming draft was just brought up, and how supposedly bad it is, and I still remember JE Skeets read that ANthony Edwards scouting report, looked around the table and was like - holly cow...

It really had every red flag in the book, questionable passion for the game, questionable basketball IQ, questionable jump shooting ability, and many others. Also, I remember all those reports stating how Anthony Edwards does not even like watching Basketball, and that was obviously twisted very bad way.

By now, ANT obviously proved every doubter wrong, but I was still surprised to hear, from Austin Rivers I believe, he said this very recently, that ANT is obsessed with basketball craft. Instantly brought back all these memories of people saying he does not even like the game.

[Birth of the Cool]

Vince Carter: lacks a jumpshot / ball handling and BBall IQ. Just an Athlete / Dunker.
By Year 2 he was developing all these skills at a high level.