Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

[AussieCeltic]

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

I also don’t care if it’s low or that the Lakers are #1 (someone has to be right?). It’s the size of the differential that stands out and it’s a huge huge number. Just something that shouldn’t happen in any sports when the outcome is largely determined by the ref.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

You keep doing the same thing, which is just giving me various slices of the same phenomenon. I understand LeBron's reduced his fouls and that the Lakers as a whole don't foul. I watch them not foul. I watch LeBron just switch everything at the elbow and often guard the worst offensive player. It's literally in the tape.

We don't agree not because we're Lakers and Celtics fans respectively. It's like a fundamental breakdown in empirical process. Others have called you out for arguing there's something unjust by reframing the same effect over and over in different terms and never providing evidence of the cause. My mistake (guilty pleasure?) is trying to explain the cause using basketball reasons, which you then cherrypick stats to shoot down because of dunk-on culture.

No, I wouldn't be asking these questions. I frankly didn't give a **** about the 2017-2018 Charlotte Hornets. The only reason this is even a meme instead of a "huh, interesting" stat is because of the logo.

Mate that’s **** rich coming from you. I’ve answered each and all of your points directly and concisely with statistics and then you turn around and change the goal posts. Each and everytime without fail.


Before you said it was the deadline was the reason. I proved you wrong.

The disparity was the same before and after the Boston game. I proved you wrong.

Then you said ADs mins was the difference. I proved you wrong.

Then you said Reaves mins was the difference. I proved you wrong.

Then you wanted a whole bunch of random data which had no correlation.

Make up your mind

[NyKnicks1714]

=
You really think someone has the time to go through each and every call of each game? Or can we use the statistics available to us and realise that it’s near impossible for this to be happening without some sort of interference.

If you want to demonstrate it's "near impossible", do it correctly. I'm happy to listen. You point to the differential but you don't talk about offense and defense individually.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 2nd in opponent FTA/g.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 3rd in FTA/g.

At least start with just one of them, without mentioning the differential (which again, combines two unrelated statistics).

[levon]

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

I also don’t care if it’s low or that the Lakers are #1 (someone has to be right?). It’s the size of the differential that stands out and it’s a huge huge number. Just something that shouldn’t happen in any sports when the outcome is largely determined by the ref.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

You keep doing the same thing, which is just giving me various slices of the same phenomenon. I understand LeBron's reduced his fouls and that the Lakers as a whole don't foul. I watch them not foul. I watch LeBron just switch everything at the elbow and often guard the worst offensive player. It's literally in the tape.

We don't agree not because we're Lakers and Celtics fans respectively. It's like a fundamental breakdown in empirical process. Others have called you out for arguing there's something unjust by reframing the same effect over and over in different terms and never providing evidence of the cause. My mistake (guilty pleasure?) is trying to explain the cause using basketball reasons, which you then cherrypick stats to shoot down because of dunk-on culture.

No, I wouldn't be asking these questions. I frankly didn't give a **** about the 2017-2018 Charlotte Hornets. The only reason this is even a meme instead of a "huh, interesting" stat is because of the logo.

Mate that’s **** rich coming from you. I’ve answered each and all of your points directly and concisely with statistics and then you turn around and change the goal posts. Each and everytime without fail.

Before you said it was the deadline was the reason. I proved you wrong.

Then you said ADs mins was the difference. I proved you wrong.

Then you said Reaves mins was the difference. I proved you wrong.

Then you wanted a whole bunch of random data which had no correlation.

Make up your mind

Mate I'm not the one calling foul without basis. The burden of proof is on you to prove this is attributable to a plot. You literally just claimed refs would have their careers stymied if they didn't give Reaves and Schroder foul calls. If you think the foul rates before and after a tweet is sufficient evidence of that, then you're either misguided or just the high effort, skilled version of the trolls in this thread.

[AussieCeltic]

=
You really think someone has the time to go through each and every call of each game? Or can we use the statistics available to us and realise that it’s near impossible for this to be happening without some sort of interference.

If you want to demonstrate it's "near impossible", do it correctly. I'm happy to listen. You point to the differential but you don't talk about offense and defense individually.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 2nd in opponent FTA/g.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 3rd in FTA/g.

At least start with just one of them, without mentioning the differential (which again, combines two unrelated statistics).

Say it without saying the thing that it is. The stat is differential my friend so I’m going to use the correct terminology. Anytime you try to handcuff someone with a response, you know you’ve lost. The stats are related my friend. One is for team A and the other is for team B in a head to head matchup, they are related.

The difference between 1st and 2nd in differential is the higher than the difference between 2nd and 30th.

Are you saying that is normal? If it’s normal, why hasn’t it ever happened in NBA history or any other sport for that matter? We’re looking at hundreds of thousands of examples throughout multiple sports across probably 100 years and there’s nothing like this.

[ChipotleWest]

Not a 1 year fluke either.

Read on Twitter

[Lockdown504090]

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

the lakers are third in FTA this season, not some runaway stat. The lakers front court of lebron AD and and taurean prince are doing 5.6 fouls per game. Giannis and middleton foul more alone. Giannis is not as disciplined nor has the basketball IQ of AD or lebron, middleton just cant really guard right now. dame fouls as much as dlo roughly, beasly, similar to reaves. The difference is in these 3 front court players i mentioned.

Reaves free throw rate is almost half what it was last season. his game didnt change. players just stopped fouling him so much. AD only getting 6.7, lebron is at a career low in free throws attempted. Jaxson hayes fouls as much as he did last season. They just are smart players who play with the intention to not foul and draw their own fouls. lebron isnt fouling because his overall activity isnt that high he's seen every move. hes never fouled a lot. neither has butler, neither has kawhi.

This thread is NOT "The Lakers have the most free throws in the NBA"

This thread is "The Lakers have the biggest free throw advantage" Because they're getting more than their opponents by the largest gap for the 2nd year in a row.

It's NOT just about how many they shoot, it's about how many their opponents don't shoot.

I compared them the lakers ttk he team that is second in differential, the bucks who have the guy who’s shot the most free throws over the last 3-5 years or so. I also compared them to other players who don’t foul a lot. The lakers just have 2 of them in positions that usually foul a lot

[xinxin]

Why are you guys even watching the NBA if the game is rigged for the lakers ?


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[NO-KG-AI]

I was today years old when I learned that driving to the rim doesn't equate to fouls being called.

I also learned this week that it was easier to iso score when there was less space and more shotblockers clogging the paint from the same fanbase.

It's a good thing a crtain guy's fans are here to teach us non believers.

[ChipotleWest]

Why are you guys even watching the NBA if the game is rigged for the lakers ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

idk, bored I guess.

[NyKnicks1714]

=
You really think someone has the time to go through each and every call of each game? Or can we use the statistics available to us and realise that it’s near impossible for this to be happening without some sort of interference.

If you want to demonstrate it's "near impossible", do it correctly. I'm happy to listen. You point to the differential but you don't talk about offense and defense individually.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 2nd in opponent FTA/g.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 3rd in FTA/g.

At least start with just one of them, without mentioning the differential (which again, combines two unrelated statistics).

Say it without saying the thing that it is. The stat is differential my friend so I’m going to use the correct terminology. Anytime you try to handcuff someone with a response, you know you’ve lost. The stats are related my friend. One is for team A and the other is for team B in a head to head matchup, they are related.

The difference between 1st and 2nd in differential is the higher than the difference between 2nd and 30th.

Are you saying that is normal? If it’s normal, why hasn’t it ever happened in NBA history or any other sport for that matter? We’re looking at hundreds of thousands of examples throughout multiple sports across probably 100 years and there’s nothing like this.

I'm saying it doesn't matter if it's "normal" or abnormal or commonplace or rare. That's not enough to determine anything. Obviously this sort of differential is extremely uncommmon, although it has happened. You can laugh all you want at the Hornets example...but it happened. Their differential one season was MUCH higher (to the tune of +2.7ft) than either of the last two seasons the Lakers had. Their differential the season prior was a little lower than the Lakers' this season or last (+0.6 and +0.3). Combine the two seasons for each team and the Hornets had a significantly higher differential. Honestly though, don't care about the Hornets because they don't matter. I only have to bring them up when people claim biased officiating is the only way a team can have that high a differential. It's a red herring. Let's talk about the team we're talking about.


I'm looking at the actual reason for that differential. I'm pointing to their free throw attempts on offense and suggesting it's reasonable based on how they play, which it is. Likewise, I look at their opponent FTA and suggest it's reasonable based on how they play defense, which it is. I've talked about it ad nauseum.

If you thought it was "near impossible", you would easily be able to demonstrate how each of these are near impossible. But you can't, not even with one. You're unable or unwilling to have a basketball discussion about why this is happening. You'll point to anything except the actual drivers of the differential.

But just answer this question for starers: Do you think it's reasonable for them to be 3rd in FTA/g based on their players and their offensive strategy. Yes or no? And why? If no, where would you expect them to be based on how they play? We can talk about defense afterwards, or start with it if you want.

[Dr Aki]

If you want to demonstrate it's "near impossible", do it correctly. I'm happy to listen. You point to the differential but you don't talk about offense and defense individually.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 2nd in opponent FTA/g.

Show it's near impossible for them to be 3rd in FTA/g.

At least start with just one of them, without mentioning the differential (which again, combines two unrelated statistics).

Say it without saying the thing that it is. The stat is differential my friend so I’m going to use the correct terminology. Anytime you try to handcuff someone with a response, you know you’ve lost. The stats are related my friend. One is for team A and the other is for team B in a head to head matchup, they are related.

The difference between 1st and 2nd in differential is the higher than the difference between 2nd and 30th.

Are you saying that is normal? If it’s normal, why hasn’t it ever happened in NBA history or any other sport for that matter? We’re looking at hundreds of thousands of examples throughout multiple sports across probably 100 years and there’s nothing like this.

I'm saying it doesn't matter if it's "normal" or abnormal or commonplace or rare. That's not enough to determine anything. Obviously this sort of differential is extremely uncommmon, although it has happened. You can laugh all you want at the Hornets example...but it happened. Their differential one season was MUCH higher (to the tune of +2.7ft) than either of the last two seasons the Lakers had. Their differential the season prior was a little lower than the Lakers' this season or last (+0.6 and +0.3). Combine the two seasons for each team and the Hornets had a significantly higher differential. Honestly though, don't care about the Hornets because they don't matter. I only have to bring them up when people claim biased officiating is the only way a team can have that high a differential. It's a red herring. Let's talk about the team we're talking about.


I'm looking at the actual reason for that differential. I'm pointing to their free throw attempts on offense and suggesting it's reasonable based on how they play, which it is. Likewise, I look at their opponent FTA and suggest it's reasonable based on how they play defense, which it is. I've talked about it ad nauseum.

If you thought it was "near impossible", you would easily be able to demonstrate how each of these are near impossible. But you can't, not even with one. You're unable or unwilling to have a basketball discussion about why this is happening. You'll point to anything except the actual drivers of the differential.

But just answer this question for starers: Do you think it's reasonable for them to be 3rd in FTA/g based on their players and their offensive strategy. Yes or no? And why? If no, where would you expect them to be based on how they play? We can talk about defense afterwards, or start with it if you want.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity

Argument from incredulity, also known as argument from personal incredulity, appeal to common sense, or the divine fallacy,[1] is a fallacy in informal logic. It asserts that a proposition must be false because it contradicts one's personal expectations or beliefs, or is difficult to imagine.

Arguments from incredulity can take the form:

I cannot imagine how F could be true; therefore F must be false.
I cannot imagine how F could be false; therefore F must be true.

Arguments from incredulity can sometimes arise from inappropriate emotional involvement, the conflation of fantasy and reality, a lack of understanding, or an instinctive 'gut' reaction, especially where time is scarce.[2] They are also frequently used to argue that something must be supernatural in origin or even the contrary.[3] This form of reasoning is fallacious because one's inability to imagine how a statement can be true or false gives no information about whether the statement is true or false in reality.[4]

[DonaldSanders]

I think the logic as to why the Lakers are at the top of the list is sound. I don't buy any kind of conspiracy theories. What I question is the size of the gap of the Lakers and the team in 2nd.

The other side of being logical about their differential is that they have players that get the benefit of the doubt on fouls/sell calls well (AD, Reaves) and then players that get away with some fouls that don't get called (LeBron/AD). It's an intersection of their strategy and players that 'do well with the refs'. If you put LeBron, AD, Reaves on different teams they would get the same benefits, it's their playstyle and being good at tricking or concealing that creates a big, frustrating to watch gap.

[Goomba3666]

This is why the play-in is the goal. I remember when it was just 1-8.

[madskillz8]

Why are you guys even watching the NBA if the game is rigged for the lakers ?


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Come on, you can do better than that. NBA has become an entertainment than a sport as the former brings more profit, and from this perspective it is very reasonable for them to have Lakers in playoffs, or at least be in play-in tournament. Now compare 7-game first round series between Nuggets and Kings with a play in game between Lakers and Warriors. Which one makes more profit? Yes, please compare 7 games with just one game.

It is not rigging the game for Lakers, it is all about the profit. And perfectly consistent with "the game"'s objectives. And it is not new - from an NBA ref who served 15 months jail time.

"Referees A, F, and G were officiating a playoff series between the Team 5 and Team 6 in May of 2002," the letter states, using placeholders instead of names. "It was the sixth game of a seven-game series, and a Team 5 victory that night would have ended the series. However, Tim learned from Referee A that Referees A and F wanted to extend the series to seven games. Tim knew Referees A and F to be 'company men,' always acting in the interest of the NBA, and that night, it was in the NBA's best interest to add another game to the series."

It happened before, happening now, and will happen again.

[ChipotleWest]

This is why the play-in is the goal. I remember when it was just 1-8.

Maybe this is a last ditch effort to make Lebron look like the GOAT is have him win a ring from the play in? If he wins it all or gets to the Finals from the play in this year I might think so. He got to the WCF last year from the play in.

[ballzboyee]

The Lakers have a +0.3 ppg differential to their opponents. Without their massive disparity in FTA which is basically the equivalent of having an extra player in 10-man rotation contributing off the bench that other teams do not have, they go from maybe play-in team to being in the hunt for a lottery pick. The reality is that the Lakers are really a bad team that is being carried by the league officiating. Without the refs intervening, the idea that Lebron is having some kind of on-court impact evaporates and the league loses one of its biggest regular season draws for ratings.

The arguments people cite to explain away the massive FT disparity are just circular reasoning, i.e. the reason Lakers foul less is the same reason they draw more fouls -- the refs and the league's agenda to prop on a 40-year-old AARP member no matter what. The Lakers are #1 in the league in FTA and their opponents are next to 29th in the league in drawing fouls against the Lakers. The only common denominators are the refs and the Lakers.

Circular reasoning, i.e. prove the refs are not biased toward the Lakers when the control the calls on both ends of the court. Short answer you can't because fouls are inherently subjective to the way the NBA enforces the rules to give certain players star treatment and regularly conducts point-of-emphasis tweaks to how they call games officiating certain plays, teams, and players. The NBA even admits to doing this. The FT disparity is totally smoking. Believe your lying eyes for once. It is what it looks like. Stop gaslighting yourself and just accept the law parsimony. The league is desperate to have the Lakers in the postseason. They may not care what happens after the Lakers get there, but they definitely want Lebron to be playing basketball after the end of the regular season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning

Circular reasoning (Latin: circulus in probando, "circle in proving";[1] also known as circular logic) is a logical fallacy in which the reasoner begins with what they are trying to end with.[2] Circular reasoning is not a formal logical fallacy, but a pragmatic defect in an argument whereby the premises are just as much in need of proof or evidence as the conclusion, and as a consequence the argument fails to persuade. Other ways to express this are that there is no reason to accept the premises unless one already believes the conclusion, or that the premises provide no independent ground or evidence for the conclusion.[3] Circular reasoning is closely related to begging the question, and in modern usage the two generally refer to the same thing.[4]

[NbaAllDay]

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

Askong questions is a good thing. Making assumptions based on them with just outcomes isn't proof of anything. It's just the starting blocks to actually obtaining evidence.

To actually prove your point you would need to show a list of calls the LA have gotten unfairly (or gotten away with).

Yes this would require some work but it's legitimately the only form of evidence that would prove these claims.

They’re pointed out in game threads ad nauseam. If you pay attention there, you can generally see the majority agree with statistics and that’s it’s a regular thing. Unlike others, I’m happy to point out if my team gets the benefit of a call. Laker fans act like their team has never committed a foul and most believe they should be getting an even better differential!

You really think someone has the time to go through each and every call of each game? Or can we use the statistics available to us and realise that it’s near impossible for this to be happening without some sort of interference.

Sadly it'd a good example of conformation bias. You tell people Lakers get a 'favourable whistle' and they look for every reason to believe it. Especially since Lebron is the most polarising player, the noise is often very for or against him. It's not hard to see why this adhoc verbatim is a poor form of evidence.

And yes going through all the calls would take a lot of work but guess what! Big claims require big work to prove. This isn't a hard concept and it's sad that a lot of people think they can make large claims on small evidence but it's how the world operates these days. Especially message boards.

[NbaAllDay]

Why are you guys even watching the NBA if the game is rigged for the lakers ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

idk, bored I guess.

You must be bored a lot with the amount of times you post in these kinds of threads. To each their own I guess.

Targeted boredom.

[NyKnicks1714]

The Lakers have a +0.3 ppg differential to their opponents. Without their massive disparity in FTA which is basically the equivalent of having an extra player in 10-man rotation contributing off the bench that other teams do not have, they go from maybe play-in team to being in the hunt for a lottery pick.[[The reality is that the Lakers are really a bad team that is being carried by the league officiating. Without the refs intervening,the idea that Lebron is having some kind of on-court impact evaporates and the league loses one of its biggest regular season draws for ratings.

The arguments people cite to explain away the massive FT disparity are just circular reasoning, i.e. the reason Lakers foul less is the same reason they draw more fouls -- the refs and the league's agenda to prop on a 40-year-old AARP member no matter what. The Lakers are #1 in the league in FTA and their opponents are next to 29th in the league in drawing fouls against the Lakers. The only common denominators are the refs and the Lakers.

Circular reasoning, i.e. prove the refs are not biased toward the Lakers when the control the calls on both ends of the court. Short answer you can't because fouls are inherently subjective to the way the NBA enforces the rules to give certain players star treatment and regularly conducts point-of-emphasis tweaks to how they call games officiating certain plays, teams, and players. The NBA even admits to doing this. The FT disparity is totally smoking. Believe your lying eyes for once. It is what it looks like. Stop gaslighting yourself and just accept the law parsimony. The league is desperate to have the Lakers in the postseason. They may not care what happens after the Lakers get there, but they definitely want Lebron to be playing basketball after the end of the regular season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning

Circular reasoning (Latin: circulus in probando, "circle in proving";[1] also known as circular logic) is a logical fallacy in which the reasoner begins with what they are trying to end with.[2] Circular reasoning is not a formal logical fallacy, but a pragmatic defect in an argument whereby the premises are just as much in need of proof or evidence as the conclusion, and as a consequence the argument fails to persuade. Other ways to express this are that there is no reason to accept the premises unless one already believes the conclusion, or that the premises provide no independent ground or evidence for the conclusion.[3] Circular reasoning is closely related to begging the question, and in modern usage the two generally refer to the same thing.[4]

The fact that you only used circular logic (in short: "the Lakers have a high FT differential because the NBA wants them to win, which is proven by their high FT differential") to defend your argument in a post where you create a strawman and criticize the other side for using circular logic...it's just the cherry on top and perfectly encapsulates this thread.

[ChipotleWest]

Why are you guys even watching the NBA if the game is rigged for the lakers ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

idk, bored I guess.

You must be bored a lot with the amount of times you post in these kinds of threads. To each their own I guess.

Targeted boredom.

Isn't it sad the League is trying to artificially make your boy the GOAT by giving his team the largest free throw margin two years in a row? He'll never be the GOAT though.