Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

[Lunartic]

Interesting how the posters defending or excusing the obvious unfair trend are just dismissive

"You have to do better"
"Nothing to see here!"
"This is just nothing"

Yes, the Lakers suddenly changed their entire playing style after a single game. They just decided to no longer foul and to get tons of fouls.
I'm surprised other teams haven't decided to do that as well, maybe they lack elite defenders like DLo, Reaves, Taurean Prince?
I've watched enough Austin "DWade" Reaves drives end in FTA for marginal contact, can we go back to officiating them fairly?

[coldfish]

What is Chicago's free throw disparity?

Not sure if anyone answered this.

Chicago's 3p disparity: -535
Chicago's FT disparity: -42

Now, before someone brings up Chicago's talent level, the Bulls are 5 games back from the Lakers. This isn't some epic gap. On court? They have Derozan foul hunting virtually every play and Vucevic regularly playing in the post.

The analysis in the OP isn't particularly "robust" because it completely falls apart for the team next to LA. Even looking at it this way, LA is an outlier.

Last note: Before people talk smack, that 5 game difference in standings is completely based on FT disparity. If the Bulls had that FT difference, they would have a better record than the Lakers.

[ForeverTFC]

Is this a PR piece put out on behalf of the Lakers? I thought the Ringer was the home of Top 87 lists (plus 124 honorable mentions), Celtics homerism and Hinkie worship.

[MoneyMo]

This isn’t very compelling at all

The reason it’s a conspiracy is because it happened literally the moment the referee union tweeted a whistleblowing sarcastic “sleepless nights” tweet promising the Lakers that change was coming for them. And it happened

The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.

It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

Maybe the refs shouldn't have messed up that bad against the Celtics on a national TV game

[Harry Palmer]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league.

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

[ChipotleWest]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league.

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

Don't forget the cold envelope where it's theorized they rigged it for the Knicks to get Patrick Ewing.

[Ein Sof]

Did the Internet experts ever figure out what was happening with Jaren Jackson's steals and blocks?

[Harry Palmer]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league. I

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

Don't forget the cold envelope where it's theorized they rigged it for the Knicks to get Patrick Ewing.

That may or may not have happened, I agree many feel it did. I myself don’t know whether I think it’s likely or not. But I am talking about things he said repeatedly in public, as in it was often the subject of his speeches. Nothing like a conspiracy if it happens in broad daylight. To be 100% fair, when he says it saved the league he’s probably not wrong, it might have been the most brilliant pro sports approach in modern times from a strictly business/profit POV (and the other sports adopted it to different degrees) but it’s still one more reason the credibility of the sport is meh and why things like the Lakers getting another benefit of that philosophy are unsurprising.

And, whether this was part of the plan or not, it has the added advantage that the fans and media of the most popular teams will be fine with it, and dismiss those who don’t benefit as whining sore losers.

Edit: I should note that social media has changed this slightly. The NBA still wants dynasties/superteams because name recognition sells tickets/merch/viewership, but social media has diversified exposure enough that it’s not essential that the most popular teams are in the biggest markets as much, though still the ideal/easiest path. But if a dynasty naturally crops up in San Antonio or Orlando they’ll get behind it because it’s more about name recognition/branding now, not just tv markets.

Edit II: Dolan’s incompetence should be even more annoying to Knicks fans in that he’s the guy whiffing on batting practice time and time again, if he just did nothing the Knicks would have been a lot more ‘successful’.

[Up-And-Coming]

It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.

Not at all. The whistle they got after was the highest 3 month span in NBA history and by a wide margin. It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years. So I’m sorry, there isn’t evidence to support they were getting an unfavourable whistle before. Unless you think 75+ years of history isn’t enough data to back up that claim?

You literally just defended the Laker's with that argument.

"It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years".

So then what are you complaining about? The Lebron/AD Lakers have consistently showed they're capable of playing a certain level of offense and defense where they get fouled by attacking downhill AND don't shoot that many 3's and can play defense at a level where they don't foul as much for YEARS thanks to AD, one of the generations best defensive players. For those that have actually watched the Lakers this year the way that they played early in the season and after is completely different and largely has to do with Darvin's numerous lineup changes, early shooting struggles and injuries. The first half of the season the team was BAD offensively and had a completely different lineup.

The Lakers 3rd most important player, Austin Reaves, clearly struggled in the first half and it's in that Feb-Mar time frame that Reaves picked up his play with more consistent time/reps because Darvin changed the lineups so many times especially early in the season and literally played Reaves off the bench for 25 games before Feb. Ham also brought D'Lo off the bench for a period, started Taurean Prince and played him a career high in minutes and also started Reddish who was literally one of the worst offensive players AND not to mention Rui was injured.

Watch on YouTube

At the 5:30 mark Nick clearly showed the difference in Reaves play the first few months versus the last couple months, with the first few months being the outlier and the last couple months correlating more closely to how he played last season.

Lo and behold when Rui also came back and was inserted into the starting lineup with D'Lo and Reaves early February which more closely resembled the team that went on a run last season, the team started to win more, play a higher-pace free-flowing offense and reverted back to more free-throw disparity just like last season. It's consistent, especially if you watch the games and actually are aware of the difference in lineups.

[ChipotleWest]

What is Chicago's free throw disparity?

Not sure if anyone answered this.

Chicago's 3p disparity: -535
Chicago's FT disparity: -42

Now, before someone brings up Chicago's talent level, the Bulls are 5 games back from the Lakers. This isn't some epic gap. On court? They have Derozan foul hunting virtually every play and Vucevic regularly playing in the post.

The analysis in the OP isn't particularly "robust" because it completely falls apart for the team next to LA. Even looking at it this way, LA is an outlier.

Last note: Before people talk smack, that 5 game difference in standings is completely based on FT disparity. If the Bulls had that FT difference, they would have a better record than the Lakers.

I'm pretty sure they meant Jordan's Bulls because why would there be a conspiracy for the Bulls today?

[ChipotleWest]

Undisputed is already saying if Lebron wins the title this year he's the GOAT. If it happens I'm going to believe it's a conspiracy due to the obvious ref bias sorry. It even makes me wonder if the Lakers are trying to remain a play in team so this happens, it's just too suspicious to me.

Watch on YouTube

[AussieCeltic]

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.

Not at all. The whistle they got after was the highest 3 month span in NBA history and by a wide margin. It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years. So I’m sorry, there isn’t evidence to support they were getting an unfavourable whistle before. Unless you think 75+ years of history isn’t enough data to back up that claim?

You literally just defended the Laker's with that argument.

"It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years".

So then what are you complaining about? The Lebron/AD Lakers have consistently showed they're capable of playing a certain level of offense and defense where they get fouled by attacking downhill AND don't shoot that many 3's and can play defense at a level where they don't foul as much for YEARS thanks to AD, one of the generations best defensive players. For those that have actually watched the Lakers this year the way that they played early in the season and after is completely different and largely has to do with Darvin's numerous lineup changes, early shooting struggles and injuries. The first half of the season the team was BAD offensively and had a completely different lineup.

The Lakers 3rd most important player, Austin Reaves, clearly struggled in the first half and it's in that Feb-Mar time frame that Reaves picked up his play with more consistent time/reps because Darvin changed the lineups so many times especially early in the season and literally played Reaves off the bench for 25 games before Feb. Ham also brought D'Lo off the bench for a period, started Taurean Prince and played him a career high in minutes and also started Reddish who was literally one of the worst offensive players AND not to mention Rui was injured.

Watch on YouTube

At the 5:30 mark Nick clearly showed the difference in Reaves play the first few months versus the last couple months, with the first few months being the outlier and the last couple months correlating more closely to how he played last season.

Lo and behold when Rui also came back and was inserted into the starting lineup with D'Lo and Reaves early February which more closely resembled the team that went on a run last season, the team started to win more, play a higher-pace free-flowing offense and reverted back to more free-throw disparity just like last season. It's consistent, especially if you watch the games and actually are aware of the difference in lineups.

I meant to say wasn’t inline.

I’ve already showed in this thread that Austin Reaves actually played less minutes post the Boston game than before.

AD played an extra 1.6 mins post the Boston game. Not really enough to swing from a mediocre differential to historic.

I also already showed that between the Boston game and D-Lo/Vandy joining the team, the Lakers differential was +10.25 which was in line with the last 3 months.

Rui was the only change in that time. So what it boils down to, is Rui is the reason for this historic free throw differential haha.

Also if you’re using Nick Wright to try prove a point, your argument is already invalid.

[jkvonny]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league.

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

Small market teams got screwed in the past in the ECF and WCF against the bigger markets. At times.

2001 ECF Milwaukee vs Philly
2000 WCF Portland vs LA Lakers
2002 WCF Sacramento vs LA Lakers

[jkvonny]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league.

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

Don't forget the cold envelope where it's theorized they rigged it for the Knicks to get Patrick Ewing.

Pacers, SuperSonics, Suns, Clips, Kings, Warriors could have won Ewing in '85.

[Up-And-Coming]

Not at all. The whistle they got after was the highest 3 month span in NBA history and by a wide margin. It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years. So I’m sorry, there isn’t evidence to support they were getting an unfavourable whistle before. Unless you think 75+ years of history isn’t enough data to back up that claim?

You literally just defended the Laker's with that argument.

"It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years".

So then what are you complaining about? The Lebron/AD Lakers have consistently showed they're capable of playing a certain level of offense and defense where they get fouled by attacking downhill AND don't shoot that many 3's and can play defense at a level where they don't foul as much for YEARS thanks to AD, one of the generations best defensive players. For those that have actually watched the Lakers this year the way that they played early in the season and after is completely different and largely has to do with Darvin's numerous lineup changes, early shooting struggles and injuries. The first half of the season the team was BAD offensively and had a completely different lineup.

The Lakers 3rd most important player, Austin Reaves, clearly struggled in the first half and it's in that Feb-Mar time frame that Reaves picked up his play with more consistent time/reps because Darvin changed the lineups so many times especially early in the season and literally played Reaves off the bench for 25 games before Feb. Ham also brought D'Lo off the bench for a period, started Taurean Prince and played him a career high in minutes and also started Reddish who was literally one of the worst offensive players AND not to mention Rui was injured.

Watch on YouTube

At the 5:30 mark Nick clearly showed the difference in Reaves play the first few months versus the last couple months, with the first few months being the outlier and the last couple months correlating more closely to how he played last season.

Lo and behold when Rui also came back and was inserted into the starting lineup with D'Lo and Reaves early February which more closely resembled the team that went on a run last season, the team started to win more, play a higher-pace free-flowing offense and reverted back to more free-throw disparity just like last season. It's consistent, especially if you watch the games and actually are aware of the difference in lineups.

I meant to say wasn’t inline.

I’ve already showed in this thread that Austin Reaves actually played less minutes post the Boston game than before.

AD played an extra 1.6 mins post the Boston game. Not really enough to swing from a mediocre differential to historic.

I also already showed that between the Boston game and D-Lo/Vandy joining the team, the Lakers differential was +10.25 which was in line with the last 3 months.

Rui was the only change in that time. So what it boils down to, is Rui is the reason for this historic free throw differential haha.

Also if you’re using Nick Wright to try prove a point, your argument is already invalid.

But it was in-line as evident in another post you made showing the Laker's leading in free-throw discrepancies in the league The Last 2 Seasons. Not to mention the GB had this same exact thread topic complaining about the Lakers free-throw discrepancy last season.

The lineups also did change. Reaves did come off the bench pre-February and his shot and confidence was gone and he was clearly in a slump. Austin Reave's minutes also 100% increased, not decreased as the season went on and he moved from the bench to the starting lineup:

Oct: 29.5 mpg
Nov: 30.0 mpg
Dec: 28.6 mpg
Jan: 33.3 mpg
Feb: 34.6 mpg
Mar: 35.6 mpg

Taurean Prince did start pre-February and played a career high in minutes. Darvin did start Reddish and played him a significant amount of minutes pre-Feb in comparison to post-Feb. Rui did miss time and Darvin would barely play him off the bench pre-Feb. The video isn't even a Nick Wright opinion piece but was only included simply because he provided a graphic clearly displaying Reaves play pre-Feb and post-Feb and I didn't know how to post a screenshot of it. The evidence doesn't only point to Rui being the only difference as he was also placed into the starting lineup. The evidence and data clearly doesn't support this narrative.

[donnieme]

What’s weird about this entire discussion is the omission of the fact that Stern openly espoused a marketing strategy based on having the bigger markets have the better teams, going so far as to say he’d be perfectly happy with the Lakers vs. Celtics, Knicks or Bulls every single finals. And that it was best for the league if the best players played in the biggest markets. He called it ‘flagship’, both for teams and players. Other sports have the same preferences, I’m sure, but they aren’t as unapologetically open about it. He in fact credited it with saving the league. I

So in that context the one team the NBA prefers to be in every finals not getting all the advantages pro sports can offer would be the surprise, not what we’ve seen here, which is just more of the same.

Don't forget the cold envelope where it's theorized they rigged it for the Knicks to get Patrick Ewing.

That may or may not have happened, I agree many feel it did. I myself don’t know whether I think it’s likely or not. But I am talking about things he said repeatedly in public, as in it was often the subject of his speeches. Nothing like a conspiracy if it happens in broad daylight. To be 100% fair, when he says it saved the league he’s probably not wrong, it might have been the most brilliant pro sports approach in modern times from a strictly business/profit POV (and the other sports adopted it to different degrees) but it’s still one more reason the credibility of the sport is meh and why things like the Lakers getting another benefit of that philosophy are unsurprising.

And, whether this was part of the plan or not, it has the added advantage that the fans and media of the most popular teams will be fine with it, and dismiss those who don’t benefit as whining sore losers.

Edit: I should note that social media has changed this slightly. The NBA still wants dynasties/superteams because name recognition sells tickets/merch/viewership, but social media has diversified exposure enough that it’s not essential that the most popular teams are in the biggest markets as much, though still the ideal/easiest path. But if a dynasty naturally crops up in San Antonio or Orlando they’ll get behind it because it’s more about name recognition/branding now, not just tv markets.

Edit II: Dolan’s incompetence should be even more annoying to Knicks fans in that he’s the guy whiffing on batting practice time and time again, if he just did nothing the Knicks would have been a lot more ‘successful’.

Stern was crazy shady and shockingly honest about being crazy shady. He went full capitalist and for good or bad felt openly justified about them. He did take the Nba out of two market recessions so it was needed. It's just he started to sound more like a 3rd world dictator everyday. Whenever speaking on any fan outrage one of his favourites was to say on live tv "I answer to the owners not the fans".

[AussieCeltic]

You literally just defended the Laker's with that argument.

"It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years".

So then what are you complaining about? The Lebron/AD Lakers have consistently showed they're capable of playing a certain level of offense and defense where they get fouled by attacking downhill AND don't shoot that many 3's and can play defense at a level where they don't foul as much for YEARS thanks to AD, one of the generations best defensive players. For those that have actually watched the Lakers this year the way that they played early in the season and after is completely different and largely has to do with Darvin's numerous lineup changes, early shooting struggles and injuries. The first half of the season the team was BAD offensively and had a completely different lineup.

The Lakers 3rd most important player, Austin Reaves, clearly struggled in the first half and it's in that Feb-Mar time frame that Reaves picked up his play with more consistent time/reps because Darvin changed the lineups so many times especially early in the season and literally played Reaves off the bench for 25 games before Feb. Ham also brought D'Lo off the bench for a period, started Taurean Prince and played him a career high in minutes and also started Reddish who was literally one of the worst offensive players AND not to mention Rui was injured.

Watch on YouTube

At the 5:30 mark Nick clearly showed the difference in Reaves play the first few months versus the last couple months, with the first few months being the outlier and the last couple months correlating more closely to how he played last season.

Lo and behold when Rui also came back and was inserted into the starting lineup with D'Lo and Reaves early February which more closely resembled the team that went on a run last season, the team started to win more, play a higher-pace free-flowing offense and reverted back to more free-throw disparity just like last season. It's consistent, especially if you watch the games and actually are aware of the difference in lineups.

I meant to say wasn’t inline.

I’ve already showed in this thread that Austin Reaves actually played less minutes post the Boston game than before.

AD played an extra 1.6 mins post the Boston game. Not really enough to swing from a mediocre differential to historic.

I also already showed that between the Boston game and D-Lo/Vandy joining the team, the Lakers differential was +10.25 which was in line with the last 3 months.

Rui was the only change in that time. So what it boils down to, is Rui is the reason for this historic free throw differential haha.

Also if you’re using Nick Wright to try prove a point, your argument is already invalid.

But it was in-line as evident in another post you made showing the Laker's leading in free-throw discrepancies in the league The Last 2 Seasons. Not to mention the GB had this same exact thread topic complaining about the Lakers free-throw discrepancy last season.

The lineups also did change. Reaves did come off the bench pre-February and his shot and confidence was gone and he was clearly in a slump. Austin Reave's minutes also 100% increased, not decreased as the season went on and he moved from the bench to the starting lineup:

Oct: 29.5 mpg
Nov: 30.0 mpg
Dec: 28.6 mpg
Jan: 33.3 mpg
Feb: 34.6 mpg
Mar: 35.6 mpg

Taurean Prince did start pre-February and played a career high in minutes. Darvin did start Reddish and played him a significant amount of minutes pre-Feb in comparison to post-Feb. Rui did miss time and Darvin would barely play him off the bench pre-Feb. The video isn't even a Nick Wright opinion piece but was only included simply because he provided a graphic clearly displaying Reaves play pre-Feb and post-Feb and I didn't know how to post a screenshot of it. The evidence doesn't only point to Rui being the only difference as he was also placed into the starting lineup. The evidence and data clearly doesn't support this narrative.

Where are you getting those Reaves minutes from?

Feb: 8 games. 22mpg. I’ll even list them for clarity.
6:50, 24:40, 26:16, 25:18, 22:06, 18:49, 27:17, 27:00

He didn’t even play over 30 mins in 1 game and you’re trying to say he averaged 34 mins??

March: 15 games; 30:09mpg.

He only played over 35 mins in 3 games but you’re trying to say that’s his March average.

Done having conversations with people who just blatantly lie like we can’t just go on basketball reference.

As I posted before, his minutes actually went down post the Boston game. Only slightly, but they still went down.

*edit. Noticed you’re talking about this season which is not what was being discussed. We were discussing the sharp turn in free throw differential post Boston game LAST season.

[Helsbyte]

Only 18 FT attempts tonite for the Lakers. No wonder they got blown out.

[SportsGuru08]

Interesting how the posters defending or excusing the obvious unfair trend are just dismissive

"You have to do better"
"Nothing to see here!"
"This is just nothing"

Yes, the Lakers suddenly changed their entire playing style after a single game. They just decided to no longer foul and to get tons of fouls.
I'm surprised other teams haven't decided to do that as well, maybe they lack elite defenders like DLo, Reaves, Taurean Prince?
I've watched enough Austin "DWade" Reaves drives end in FTA for marginal contact, can we go back to officiating them fairly?

The excuse I hear all the time is "The Lakers drive to the basket more!" They're actually near the bottom in drives to the basket.

It's the same excuse used for the blatant bias in the playoffs against Golden State last year. The Warriors drove inside almost as frequently and shot half as many free throws.

[SportsGuru08]

The last time the Lakers played the Indiana Pacers, they had a +27 edge in free throws and won by 5. This time around, they were just +4 and lost by 19.

Without this blatant favoritism, they wouldn't even be a play-in team.