Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

[AussieCeltic]

1. Trade deadline
2. Anthony Davis plays increased minutes
3. Austin Reaves plays increased minutes along with other foul merchant Schroder

It's not difficult. Keep making it difficult.

1. Trade deadline - Between Boston game and when the Lakers new additions played their first game. Lakers were +10.6
2. AD to Boston game 27 games - 33.2 mins (1 game he got injured early and played 8 mins)
AD post Boston game. 29 games - 34.8 mins a whopping 1.6 mins more.
3. Austin Reaves up to Boston game - 36 games at 28.9 mins per game.
Austin Reaves post Boston game - 28 games at 28.7 mins per game.

If it’s not difficult, why do you make things up??

Now check the usages of each player, their roles, and the free throws per player. Or do you have to double check the drives per game rankings to keep up the charade that you're doing this in good faith?

Changing the goal posts hey? Got called out because your first reasoning was wrong and now you’re just adding to it.

Yeh their free throws increased which exactly the point everyone is making. Nice one.

[Lockdown504090]

Beyond the obvious history of some very suspicious series involving Lakers, the problem with this kind of analysis is it paints over what actually happens on the court.

There are no shot charts that can explain some of the calls superduperstar Austin Reaves gets. On the flip side, the next time Lebron gets called for the forearm shove right as the guy he’s guarding is elevating will be his first. The way Lebron is officiated in general is maddening, both for and against.

Simply put, a team with so many suspect perimeter defenders giving up so few fouls is both suspect in theory and impossible to justify watching the tape. Or maybe Reaves and DLo are just way better than I think they are on that end. Their reps obviously precede them as truly excellent defenders.

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

[NyKnicks1714]

It’s hilarious to me that you’re trying to use the argument that us, some random nobodies on a message board, should personally have exclusive irrefutable evidence demonstrating that the league is conspiring to boost the Lakers.

Like, did you believe Lance Armstrong was clean up until the day he confessed because you didn’t personally receive a photo of the IVs hooked up to his arm?

I never said irrefutable. I just said evidence lol. Something with some substance we can actually discuss as adults. As another poster said all you have is circular logic. If that's enough for you to know something is true, so be it. It's not enough for me and we just have different standards for what we believe.

[Up-And-Coming]

Regardless if the Lakers are the 1st seed, 9th seed or out of the play-ins completely the rest of the league and their fans are fixated on them and incessantly talk about them while hypocritically complaining about the media’s constant Lakers coverage at the same time. Kinda Annoying and flattering at the same time

Maybe it's actually the other way around?

Maybe it's the media’s constant Lakers coverage that annoys the rest of the league and their fans thus generates lots of talk? Maybe? Think about that.

I know it annoys other fans, no one’s debating that. They definitely make it known and are always complaining about it.

The hypocritical part is that not only do they complain about the media’s Laker coverage but they are also the ones that bring them up on different occasions keeping them in the headlines not only on TV but also on social media/forums.

[AussieCeltic]

Beyond the obvious history of some very suspicious series involving Lakers, the problem with this kind of analysis is it paints over what actually happens on the court.

There are no shot charts that can explain some of the calls superduperstar Austin Reaves gets. On the flip side, the next time Lebron gets called for the forearm shove right as the guy he’s guarding is elevating will be his first. The way Lebron is officiated in general is maddening, both for and against.

Simply put, a team with so many suspect perimeter defenders giving up so few fouls is both suspect in theory and impossible to justify watching the tape. Or maybe Reaves and DLo are just way better than I think they are on that end. Their reps obviously precede them as truly excellent defenders.

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

[Hitachi77]

Does anyone have a chart this year, similar to last year that showed the Lakers got nearly double as many FTs as the 2nd highest team?

I don't have a chart but as of 3 days ago the Lakers have a lead leading +420 free throw differential, 2nd is Bucks with +220.

Read on Twitter

?s=46

Pretty wild. Hard to defend even by diehard Laker fans.

[Dr Aki]

You try to show them the steps, explain it every step of the way.

They just default back to raw FT differential as if proves something. The FT differential proves the Lakers are favoured! The proof? The FT differential!

It's circular logic.

You won't convince anyone who's not open to debate. Just don't bother.

It works both ways, Laker fans just explain why they get so many free throws, but they can't really explain why their opponents don't get free throws, or just give some lame excuse that it's playstyle that they both get so many free throws and don't foul, two years in a row.

That last part two years in a row, is the nail in the coffin.

If it wasn't the most popular team with the most popular player, but it is. And NBA had several refs go to prison for fixing games before, so it's not impossible that something is up.

What are you talking about? Every single thread about the Lakers FT differential shows that not only do the Lakers get a lot of FTs, they ALSO foul less than other teams.

Why? Because Ham has the Lakers play drop coverage. Lakers literally give up shots that result in fewer FT attempts. Drop coverage = gives up a ton of drives. Guess what? Drives to the rim don't get called for a ton of fouls. Drive and kicks to open 3pt shooters DON'T give up a lot of fouls. That isn't to say it's a good defensive strategy because giving up a ton of open threes kills the Lakers, but that's what Ham is asking the Lakers to do.

Literally in the article:

And on defense, the opposite is true: The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who rank second in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth.

Put another way, the Lakers have taken 435 more free throws than their opponents this season—but they’ve taken 513 fewer 3-pointers (ahead of only the Bulls’ minus-535 margin). Given that not even 1 percent of 3-point attempts produce foul calls, that’s a gigantic number of extra shots on which the Lakers can draw contact.

So there's this guy the Lakers have named Anthony Davis. Gee what does this Lakers team have in common with other teams in last decade that have massive FT differentials? Maybe they have an all defense big man like those Houston and Charlotte teams protecting and discouraging attempts at the rim perhaps?

[KembaWalker]

1. Trade deadline - Between Boston game and when the Lakers new additions played their first game. Lakers were +10.6
2. AD to Boston game 27 games - 33.2 mins (1 game he got injured early and played 8 mins)
AD post Boston game. 29 games - 34.8 mins a whopping 1.6 mins more.
3. Austin Reaves up to Boston game - 36 games at 28.9 mins per game.
Austin Reaves post Boston game - 28 games at 28.7 mins per game.

If it’s not difficult, why do you make things up??

Now check the usages of each player, their roles, and the free throws per player. Or do you have to double check the drives per game rankings to keep up the charade that you're doing this in good faith?

Changing the goal posts hey? Got called out because your first reasoning was wrong and now you’re just adding to it.

Yeh their free throws increased which exactly the point everyone is making. Nice one.

Ask for data, get data. “B-b-but Warriors?! 2018 Hornets though!”

What I don’t get is why yall are so insecure about what other fans think about it. If you thought it was indisputably legit, you wouldn’t feel the need to make a thread about it

[levon]

1. Trade deadline - Between Boston game and when the Lakers new additions played their first game. Lakers were +10.6
2. AD to Boston game 27 games - 33.2 mins (1 game he got injured early and played 8 mins)
AD post Boston game. 29 games - 34.8 mins a whopping 1.6 mins more.
3. Austin Reaves up to Boston game - 36 games at 28.9 mins per game.
Austin Reaves post Boston game - 28 games at 28.7 mins per game.

If it’s not difficult, why do you make things up??

Now check the usages of each player, their roles, and the free throws per player. Or do you have to double check the drives per game rankings to keep up the charade that you're doing this in good faith?

Changing the goal posts hey? Got called out because your first reasoning was wrong and now you’re just adding to it.

Yeh their free throws increased which exactly the point everyone is making. Nice one.

Yeah I posted an analysis that plausibly explains it. You got a borderline sarcastic tweet from the refs and drives per game.

[AussieCeltic]

Now check the usages of each player, their roles, and the free throws per player. Or do you have to double check the drives per game rankings to keep up the charade that you're doing this in good faith?

Changing the goal posts hey? Got called out because your first reasoning was wrong and now you’re just adding to it.

Yeh their free throws increased which exactly the point everyone is making. Nice one.

Yeah I posted an analysis that plausibly explains it. You got a borderline sarcastic tweet from the refs and drives per game.

I answered your 3 questions with data in which you were wrong and then you switched it up. I’ve gone into a much deeper dive in the other thread from last year and spent good time on it.

As I said then, it’s a statical anomaly for the margin to be this wide. In the last season, the gap between the 1st and 2nd is the same as 2nd and 30th. That just shouldn’t happen in any statistic in any sport.

[levon]

Changing the goal posts hey? Got called out because your first reasoning was wrong and now you’re just adding to it.

Yeh their free throws increased which exactly the point everyone is making. Nice one.

Yeah I posted an analysis that plausibly explains it. You got a borderline sarcastic tweet from the refs and drives per game.

I answered your 3 questions with data in which you were wrong and then you switched it up. I’ve gone into a much deeper dive in the other thread from last year and spent good time on it.

As I said then, it’s a statical anomaly for the margin to be this wide. In the last season, the gap between the 1st and 2nd is the same as 2nd and 30th. That just shouldn’t happen in any statistic in any sport.

Statistical anomalies don't happen in sports ever. Look, there's a historical analysis in the article too. The Lakers rank up their among teams all time when normalize, but it's not really close to egregious. Lots of modern teams post anomalies every year. If you think the refs were mandated to get LeBron into the playoffs at all costs, that's fine with me.

I've been watching the team every day for multiple decades and it's one of the most unique teams in a multitude of facets. And I'm willing to bet that if they were called the Boston Celtics and all else stayed the same, the same phenomenon would be present.

Also, your last sentence is your opinion whereas you're acting like you're an authority on it because you're a data analyst by trade. If the team is anomalous by construction and scheme, it follows that certain metrics will be anomalous.

[madskillz8]

Regardless if the Lakers are the 1st seed, 9th seed or out of the play-ins completely the rest of the league and their fans are fixated on them and incessantly talk about them while hypocritically complaining about the media’s constant Lakers coverage at the same time. Kinda Annoying and flattering at the same time

Maybe it's actually the other way around?

Maybe it's the media’s constant Lakers coverage that annoys the rest of the league and their fans thus generates lots of talk? Maybe? Think about that.

I know it annoys other fans, no one’s debating that. They definitely make it known and are always complaining about it.

The hypocritical part is that not only do they complain about the media’s Laker coverage but they are also the ones that bring them up and complain about them keeping them in the headlines not only on TV but also on social media/forums.

Fair enough. After all, we all rely on media coverage to some degree while following NBA , thus there will always be a strong correlation between what media is talking about and the GB threads, i.e. what we are talking about.

Few years ago, the media's cashcow was the Warriors, thus they were incessantly talking about them -even more than they talk about Lakers today- and the GB was discussing the Warriors more than any other team, unfortunately. If we're talking about Draymond that much today, it is because of the fact media shoved them down our throats for years.

[ejftw]

Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.

Norm Powell had a 40% free throw rate his first 1.5 seasons with the the Clippers. That's really high.

His 3pt attempt rate has gone up 10% to 50% which accounts for his drop this year. The only people responsible for Norm Powell not getting fouls is Norm Powell and Ty Lue.

I love how when "free throw" is involved everyone goes basketball braindead.

Let's have fun with those that refuse to see they get the zebra advantage.

35.7% of Powell's shots this year are within 10 feet.
36.4% of Reaves shots this year are within 10 feet.

Who'd have thunk that had Powell taken just .7% more shots within 10 feet, he'd get th same whistles Reaves does!

Also rounding 39.0% to 40% is wild.

To boot, when Norm was at a 39 FTr to Reaves 54.1 FTr, Powell took 44.8% of his shots within ten feet to Austin at 37.8%.

Guess Norm should haven't shot from that close as often to get a similar call.

Golly, it's fun to cherry pick stats just to throw out ad hominems.

[ejftw]

I was today years old when I learned that driving to the rim doesn't equate to fouls being called.

[levon]

Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.

Norm Powell had a 40% free throw rate his first 1.5 seasons with the the Clippers. That's really high.

His 3pt attempt rate has gone up 10% to 50% which accounts for his drop this year. The only people responsible for Norm Powell not getting fouls is Norm Powell and Ty Lue.

I love how when "free throw" is involved everyone goes basketball braindead.

Let's have fun with those that refuse to see they get the zebra advantage.

35.7% of Powell's shots this year are within 10 feet.
36.4% of Reaves shots this year are within 10 feet.

Who'd have thunk that had Powell taken just .7% more shots within 10 feet, he'd get th same whistles Reaves does!

Also rounding 39.0% to 40% is wild.

To boot, when Norm was at a 39 FTr to Reaves 54.1 FTr, Powell took 44.8% of his shots within ten feet to Austin at 37.8%.

Guess Norm should haven't shot from that close as often to get a similar call.

Golly, it's fun to cherry pick stats just to throw out ad hominems.

I didn't round anything.

I think Norm should be more adept at drawing fouls, simply put. Reaves is a foul merchant that also tries to make the shot while breaking down defenders. My familiarity with Powell's game is he's more catch-and-shoot and can operate some in the paint.

I think the refs fell for more of the foul bait when Reaves was a novelty and less so this season. There was a little bit of Linsanity for sure.

[NyKnicks1714]

Why? Because Ham has the Lakers play drop coverage. Lakers literally give up shots that result in fewer FT attempts. Drop coverage = gives up a ton of drives. Guess what? Drives to the rim don't get called for a ton of fouls. Drive and kicks to open 3pt shooters DON'T give up a lot of fouls. That isn't to say it's a good defensive strategy because giving up a ton of threes kills the Lakers, but that's what Ham is asking the Lakers to do.

Literally in the article:

And on defense, the opposite is true: The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who rank second in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth.

Put another way, the Lakers have taken 435 more free throws than their opponents this season—but they’ve taken 513 fewer 3-pointers (ahead of only the Bulls’ minus-535 margin). Given that not even 1 percent of 3-point attempts produce foul calls, that’s a gigantic number of extra shots on which the Lakers can draw contact.

The funny thing to me is their defensive strategy is not even working that well. If they changed up their coverages more often, they would at least be solidly above average in my view. If you dislike the Lakers you should be happy this is their defensive game plan instead of one which maximizes their potential on defense.

I've wanted to started a thread about the merits of his strategy, but knew it would be drowned out by the vocal minority who want to shout conspiracy instead of talk basketball. I think constant drop coverage can work in theory for some teams, but it doesn't make sense when you have an elite defender like AD and someone like LeBron who's great at reading offenses and is versatile and decent even if no longer great.

If you get a team with poor defensive abilities, going to a strategy like this could work nicely to go from bad to maybe below average. It kind of just raises your floor.

[levon]

I was today years old when I learned that driving to the rim doesn't equate to fouls being called.

It actually doesn't correlate that well. Attempts in the paint vs from 3 correlate very well.

[C3H6N6O6]

If Lakers want to win in the playoffs then they need the free throw differential to go down because they give up wide open 3s with their current defensive scheme which helps in not fouling players but it also gives huge leads to opposing teams.

There is a reason Lakers are barely positive in +/- compared to teams that have similar records like Rockets, Warriors, Suns, Mavs and Kings.

[AussieCeltic]

Yeah I posted an analysis that plausibly explains it. You got a borderline sarcastic tweet from the refs and drives per game.

I answered your 3 questions with data in which you were wrong and then you switched it up. I’ve gone into a much deeper dive in the other thread from last year and spent good time on it.

As I said then, it’s a statical anomaly for the margin to be this wide. In the last season, the gap between the 1st and 2nd is the same as 2nd and 30th. That just shouldn’t happen in any statistic in any sport.

Statistical anomalies don't happen in sports ever. Look, there's a historical analysis in the article too. The Lakers rank up their among teams all time when normalize, but it's not really close to egregious. Lots of modern teams post anomalies every year. If you think the refs were mandated to get LeBron into the playoffs at all costs, that's fine with me.

I've been watching the team every day for multiple decades and it's one of the most unique teams in a multitude of facets. And I'm willing to bet that if they were called the Boston Celtics and all else stayed the same, the same phenomenon would be present.

Also, your last sentence is your opinion whereas you're acting like you're an authority on it because you're a data analyst by trade. If the team is anomalous by construction and scheme, it follows that certain metrics will be anomalous.

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen to every team from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

[KembaWalker]

AussieCeltic dismantled the Lakers fans in this thread, good lord.

Y’all wishin this thread was never made lmao