Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#41 » by ejftw » Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:50 am

HMFFL wrote:
ejftw wrote:Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.
Norm has always the a player that would evolve into greatness but he's looking like he's reached his ceiling.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app


He is who he is, a three level scorer that fights on defense, tho it has dropped off in recent years that doesn't complain.

Watching him lead UCLA to the S16 as Looney disappointed was fun
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#42 » by NyKnicks1714 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:06 am

ejftw wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.


There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.


Why would he need to demonstrate they got unfavorable calls?

Such a weird counter attempt to the facts showing that the Lakers got a biased whistle like very little, if any, other.


What? I'm saying he needs to demonstrate they got a favorable whistle afterwards. I.e. you have to provide support for a claim you make.

4 things can be true here:

1) They got an unfavorable whistle before that date, and it was corrected.
2) They got a normal whistle before that date, and then got a favorable whistle afterwards.
3) They got an unfavorable whistle prior, and a favorable one after, whatever the ratio is
4) The whistle they got did not change in terms of fairness, and other factors drove the increased FTA

No one has provided evidence for any one these, at all.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#43 » by ejftw » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:14 am

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
ejftw wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.


Why would he need to demonstrate they got unfavorable calls?

Such a weird counter attempt to the facts showing that the Lakers got a biased whistle like very little, if any, other.


What? I'm saying he needs to demonstrate they got a favorable whistle afterwards. I.e. you have to provide support for a claim you make.

4 things can be true here:

1) They got an unfavorable whistle before that date, and it was corrected.
2) They got a normal whistle before that date, and then got a favorable whistle afterwards.
3) They got an unfavorable whistle prior, and a favorable one after, whatever the ratio is
4) The whistle they got did not change in terms of fairness, and other factors drove the increased FTA

No one has provided evidence for any one these, at all.


Weird how you initially were focused on unfavorable prior to the disparity becoming as large as it was.

A drastic increase coming after consistent whining by players, the organization, fans and even the media puts the second scenario in quite a big lead.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#44 » by NyKnicks1714 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:21 am

ejftw wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
ejftw wrote:
Why would he need to demonstrate they got unfavorable calls?

Such a weird counter attempt to the facts showing that the Lakers got a biased whistle like very little, if any, other.


What? I'm saying he needs to demonstrate they got a favorable whistle afterwards. I.e. you have to provide support for a claim you make.

4 things can be true here:

1) They got an unfavorable whistle before that date, and it was corrected.
2) They got a normal whistle before that date, and then got a favorable whistle afterwards.
3) They got an unfavorable whistle prior, and a favorable one after, whatever the ratio is
4) The whistle they got did not change in terms of fairness, and other factors drove the increased FTA

No one has provided evidence for any one these, at all.


Weird how you initially were focused on unfavorable prior to the disparity becoming as large as it was.

A drastic increase coming after consistent whining by players, the organization, fans and even the media puts the second scenario in quite a big lead.


You don't understand what I'm saying, at all.

A drastic increase coming after they complained could mean any of those 4 scenarios. If you want to say the timing is too coincidental be #4, fine (it's not enough evidence, but I won't care enough to argue), but you still haven't done anything to show it's the second scenario.

Maybe the complaining made the league realize they hadn't been calling the Lakers properly up to that point. There's literally the same amount of evidence for that as there is for what you guys are claiming.

It's amazing how something so obvious to you guys is proving to be so difficult to provide evidence for. You could even be right, but you refuse to show it. Maybe someone on your side of the argument will come along and provide some actual support for it. The claim that the NBA is doing everything in their power to give one specific team lots of wins is a serious one. You can't just just point to one statistic and claim that's the case, lol.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#45 » by levon » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:23 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
levon wrote:
KembaWalker wrote:This isn’t very compelling at all

The reason it’s a conspiracy is because it happened literally the moment the referee union tweeted a whistleblowing sarcastic “sleepless nights” tweet promising the Lakers that change was coming for them. And it happened

The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.


It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

1. Trade deadline
2. Anthony Davis plays increased minutes
3. Austin Reaves plays increased minutes along with other foul merchant Schroder

It's not difficult. Keep making it difficult.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#46 » by Up-And-Coming » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:29 am

Regardless if the Lakers are the 1st seed, 9th seed or out of the play-ins completely the rest of the league and their fans are fixated on them and incessantly talk about them while hypocritically complaining about the media’s constant Lakers coverage at the same time. Kinda annoying and flattering at the same time :lol:
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#47 » by levon » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:32 am

ejftw wrote:Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.

Norm Powell had a 40% free throw rate his first 1.5 seasons with the the Clippers. That's really high.

His 3pt attempt rate has gone up 10% to 50% which accounts for his drop this year. The only people responsible for Norm Powell not getting fouls is Norm Powell and Ty Lue.

I love how when "free throw" is involved everyone goes basketball braindead.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#48 » by Dr Aki » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:33 am

You try to show them the steps, explain it every step of the way.

They just default back to raw FT differential as if proves something. The FT differential proves the Lakers are favoured! The proof? The FT differential!

It's circular logic.

You won't convince anyone who's not open to debate. Just don't bother.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#49 » by KembaWalker » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:33 am

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
ejftw wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
What? I'm saying he needs to demonstrate they got a favorable whistle afterwards. I.e. you have to provide support for a claim you make.

4 things can be true here:

1) They got an unfavorable whistle before that date, and it was corrected.
2) They got a normal whistle before that date, and then got a favorable whistle afterwards.
3) They got an unfavorable whistle prior, and a favorable one after, whatever the ratio is
4) The whistle they got did not change in terms of fairness, and other factors drove the increased FTA

No one has provided evidence for any one these, at all.


Weird how you initially were focused on unfavorable prior to the disparity becoming as large as it was.

A drastic increase coming after consistent whining by players, the organization, fans and even the media puts the second scenario in quite a big lead.


You don't understand what I'm saying, at all.

A drastic increase coming after they complained could mean any of those 4 scenarios. If you want to say the timing is too coincidental be #4, fine (it's not enough evidence, but I won't care enough to argue), but you still haven't done anything to show it's the second scenario.

Maybe the complaining made the league realize they hadn't been calling the Lakers properly up to that point. There's literally the same amount of evidence for that as there is for what you guys are claiming.

It's amazing how something so obvious to you guys is proving to be so difficult to provide evidence for. You could even be right, but you refuse to show it. Maybe someone on your side of the argument will come along and provide some actual support for it. The claim that the NBA is doing everything in their power to give one specific team lots of wins is a serious one. You can't just just point to one statistic and claim that's the case, lol.


It’s hilarious to me that you’re trying to use the argument that us, some random nobodies on a message board, should personally have exclusive irrefutable evidence demonstrating that the league is conspiring to boost the Lakers.

Like, did you believe Lance Armstrong was clean up until the day he confessed because you didn’t personally receive a photo of the IVs hooked up to his arm?
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#50 » by levon » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:37 am

ballzboyee wrote:Rookie analysis by the Ringer, for sure. If this kind of statistical outlier showed up at a casino, the Feds would raid the place and shut it down. Why is the Ringer using a general trend model to explain away a 1 in a Gabillion outlier, when we have shooting chart data on exactly when, who,and where on the court these fouls occur? This is how you would conduct the analysis... on a shot-by-shot basis and then compare to similar players -- not team trends. It just so happens with the shot chart data, we can find out exactly what kind of shooting fouls would lead to such a wild and unexplainable variance in calls. If you are looking at numbers at a casino or some other online betting venture and you see numbers like this, don't walk... but run in the opposite direction. Take your money and don't put in on the Lakers games. It only takes a fraction of percentages on these types of subjective calls to cause huge swings in betting results. This is almost an absolute smoking gun in my opinion that some of these kinds are being influenced by... shall we say... creative ref/league intervention.

:lol: Conduct a better analysis friend. I encourage it.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#51 » by ChipotleWest » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:38 am

Dr Aki wrote:You try to show them the steps, explain it every step of the way.

They just default back to raw FT differential as if proves something. The FT differential proves the Lakers are favoured! The proof? The FT differential!

It's circular logic.

You won't convince anyone who's not open to debate. Just don't bother.


It works both ways, Laker fans just explain why they get so many free throws, but they can't really explain why their opponents don't get free throws, or just give some lame excuse that it's playstyle that they both get so many free throws and don't foul, two years in a row.

That last part two years in a row, is the nail in the coffin.

If it wasn't the most popular team with the most popular player, but it is. And NBA had several refs go to prison for fixing games before, so it's not impossible that something is up.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#52 » by Hitachi77 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:40 am

Does anyone have a chart this year, similar to last year that showed the Lakers got nearly double as many FTs as the 2nd highest team?
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#53 » by madskillz8 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:41 am

Up-And-Coming wrote:Regardless if the Lakers are the 1st seed, 9th seed or out of the play-ins completely the rest of the league and their fans are fixated on them and incessantly talk about them while hypocritically complaining about the media’s constant Lakers coverage at the same time. Kinda Annoying and flattering at the same time :lol:


Maybe it's actually the other way around?

Maybe it's the media’s constant Lakers coverage that annoys the rest of the league and their fans thus generates lots of talk? Maybe? Think about that.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#54 » by NyKnicks1714 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:41 am

levon wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
levon wrote:The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.


It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

1. Trade deadline
2. Anthony Davis plays increased minutes
3. Austin Reaves plays increased minutes along with other foul merchant Schroder

It's not difficult. Keep making it difficult.


There's another factor:

LeBron played in 80% (40/50) of games prior to and including that game.

He played in 50% (15/30) of games afterwards.

Why is that important? That season (and this one), LeBron had one of the lower free throw rates of the top scorers in the league. His free throw rate was .268 that season. If you compare that to qualified leaders (LeBron missed too many games), he was 98th. (If you compare him to all players, he was 204th). For someone with LeBron's play style and ability, that is extremely low.

Increased offensive role for players better at drawing fouls (i.e. Reaves as you mentioned) was part of it too.

Notice how LeBron was the focal point of all those conversations after the Celtics game, but he himself did not see any increase in FTA.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#55 » by ChipotleWest » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:41 am

Hitachi77 wrote:Does anyone have a chart this year, similar to last year that showed the Lakers got nearly double as many FTs as the 2nd highest team?


I don't have a chart but as of 3 days ago the Lakers have a lead leading +420 free throw differential, 2nd is Bucks with +220.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#56 » by levon » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:42 am

ChipotleWest wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:You try to show them the steps, explain it every step of the way.

They just default back to raw FT differential as if proves something. The FT differential proves the Lakers are favoured! The proof? The FT differential!

It's circular logic.

You won't convince anyone who's not open to debate. Just don't bother.


It works both ways, Laker fans just explain why they get so many free throws, but they can't really explain why their opponents don't get free throws, or just give some lame excuse that it's playstyle that they both get so many free throws and don't foul, two years in a row.

That last part two years in a row, is the nail in the coffin.

The actual basketball scheme is a lame excuse and a far-reaching conspiracy that no one has ever copped to and there's no evidence of is the one to be believed?

Riddle me this: why is the NBA's other massive cash cow, the Warriors, regularly suffering from the worst free throw differentials? Is there a conspiracy to bury Steph Curry and the Warriors? Lame ass empiricists pointing out that it's the "play style".
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#57 » by AussieCeltic » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:44 am

levon wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
levon wrote:The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.


It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

1. Trade deadline
2. Anthony Davis plays increased minutes
3. Austin Reaves plays increased minutes along with other foul merchant Schroder

It's not difficult. Keep making it difficult.


1. Trade deadline - Between Boston game and when the Lakers new additions played their first game. Lakers were +10.6
2. AD to Boston game 27 games - 33.2 mins (1 game he got injured early and played 8 mins)
AD post Boston game. 29 games - 34.8 mins a whopping 1.6 mins more.
3. Austin Reaves up to Boston game - 36 games at 28.9 mins per game.
Austin Reaves post Boston game - 28 games at 28.7 mins per game.

If it’s not difficult, why do you make things up??
eyeatoma wrote:IMO the bigger issue is that Denver and the Jazz are allowed to host games at a high altitute, when they have literally had news exposes saying how it's a clear competetive advantage to play there.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#58 » by ChipotleWest » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:45 am

levon wrote:
ChipotleWest wrote:
Dr Aki wrote:You try to show them the steps, explain it every step of the way.

They just default back to raw FT differential as if proves something. The FT differential proves the Lakers are favoured! The proof? The FT differential!

It's circular logic.

You won't convince anyone who's not open to debate. Just don't bother.


It works both ways, Laker fans just explain why they get so many free throws, but they can't really explain why their opponents don't get free throws, or just give some lame excuse that it's playstyle that they both get so many free throws and don't foul, two years in a row.

That last part two years in a row, is the nail in the coffin.

The actual basketball scheme is a lame excuse and a far-reaching conspiracy that no one has ever copped to and there's no evidence of is the one to be believed?

Riddle me this: why is the NBA's other massive cash cow, the Warriors, regularly suffering from the worst free throw differentials? Is there a conspiracy to bury Steph Curry and the Warriors? Lame ass empiricists pointing out that it's the "play style".


It's not my job to answer what the NBA thinks about the Warriors or any team really. They're the ones doing it not me.
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#59 » by levon » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:46 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
levon wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

1. Trade deadline
2. Anthony Davis plays increased minutes
3. Austin Reaves plays increased minutes along with other foul merchant Schroder

It's not difficult. Keep making it difficult.


1. Trade deadline - Between Boston game and when the Lakers new additions played their first game. Lakers were +10.6
2. AD to Boston game 27 games - 33.2 mins (1 game he got injured early and played 8 mins)
AD post Boston game. 29 games - 34.8 mins a whopping 1.6 mins more.
3. Austin Reaves up to Boston game - 36 games at 28.9 mins per game.
Austin Reaves post Boston game - 28 games at 28.7 mins per game.

If it’s not difficult, why do you make things up??

Now check the usages of each player, their roles, and the free throws per player. Or do you have to double check the drives per game rankings to keep up the charade that you're doing this in good faith?
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Re: Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy 

Post#60 » by AussieCeltic » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:46 am

ChipotleWest wrote:
Hitachi77 wrote:Does anyone have a chart this year, similar to last year that showed the Lakers got nearly double as many FTs as the 2nd highest team?


I don't have a chart but as of 3 days ago the Lakers have a lead leading +420 free throw differential, 2nd is Bucks with +220.


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eyeatoma wrote:IMO the bigger issue is that Denver and the Jazz are allowed to host games at a high altitute, when they have literally had news exposes saying how it's a clear competetive advantage to play there.

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