Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

[ejftw]

Norm Powell had a 40% free throw rate his first 1.5 seasons with the the Clippers. That's really high.

His 3pt attempt rate has gone up 10% to 50% which accounts for his drop this year. The only people responsible for Norm Powell not getting fouls is Norm Powell and Ty Lue.

I love how when "free throw" is involved everyone goes basketball braindead.

Let's have fun with those that refuse to see they get the zebra advantage.

35.7% of Powell's shots this year are within 10 feet.
36.4% of Reaves shots this year are within 10 feet.

Who'd have thunk that had Powell taken just .7% more shots within 10 feet, he'd get th same whistles Reaves does!

Also rounding 39.0% to 40% is wild.

To boot, when Norm was at a 39 FTr to Reaves 54.1 FTr, Powell took 44.8% of his shots within ten feet to Austin at 37.8%.

Guess Norm should haven't shot from that close as often to get a similar call.

Golly, it's fun to cherry pick stats just to throw out ad hominems.

I didn't round anything.

I think Norm should be more adept at drawing fouls, simply put. Reaves is a foul merchant that also tries to make the shot while breaking down defenders. My familiarity with Powell's game is he's more catch-and-shoot and can operate some in the paint.

I think the refs fell for more of the foul bait when Reaves was a novelty and less so this season. There was a little bit of Linsanity for sure.

Yeah I definitely caught the rounding mistake as I read last season not 1.5 seasons for Norm, but by the time I went to correct being mobile, you already replied.

Powell is a legitimate three level scorer, whether it's from the arc, mid range or attacking the bucket. If you swapped the name on the front of each respective players jerseys, I have no doubt that Norm would get an extra trip to the line. Reaves isn't getting the same calls as last year, which is clear by his reaction at certain times, but he still is benefiting from getting calls he wouldn't on virtually any other team.

It is what it is... Lakers will, more often than not, get all the 50/50 calls. Do I think it comes from the league office or th refs union? Nah. It's just the way it's called

[Dr Aki]

If Lakers want to win in the playoffs then they need the free throw differential to go down because they give up wide open 3s with their current defensive scheme which helps in not fouling players but it also gives huge leads to opposing teams.

There is a reason Lakers are barely positive in +/- compared to teams that have similar records like Rockets, Warriors, Suns, Mavs and Kings.

Exactly, watching the Lakers defend is hair tearing stuff.

Ham plays drop coverage because our starting guards (DLo/AR) die on screens way too often to stay in contact with PnR ball handlers and too often it results in putting the defense in rotation, which results in open 3s.

The Lakers don't like to switch, because then AD is taken away from the rim where he's less effective, or DLo/AR is left trying to defend a big man with a matchup advantage.

When Vando (maybe) and Vincent (soon apparently) come back, it'll get better, but then you're losing offensive capability for it.

[NyKnicks1714]

If Lakers want to win in the playoffs then they need the free throw differential to go down because they give up wide open 3s with their current defensive scheme which helps in not fouling players but it also gives huge leads to opposing teams.

There is a reason Lakers are barely positive in +/- compared to teams that have similar records like Rockets, Warriors, Suns, Mavs and Kings.

If they get into the playoffs, they'll be absolutely eaten alive if they don't change up the game plan.

[Lockdown504090]

Beyond the obvious history of some very suspicious series involving Lakers, the problem with this kind of analysis is it paints over what actually happens on the court.

There are no shot charts that can explain some of the calls superduperstar Austin Reaves gets. On the flip side, the next time Lebron gets called for the forearm shove right as the guy he’s guarding is elevating will be his first. The way Lebron is officiated in general is maddening, both for and against.

Simply put, a team with so many suspect perimeter defenders giving up so few fouls is both suspect in theory and impossible to justify watching the tape. Or maybe Reaves and DLo are just way better than I think they are on that end. Their reps obviously precede them as truly excellent defenders.

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

the lakers are third in FTA this season, not some runaway stat. The lakers front court of lebron AD and and taurean prince are doing 5.6 fouls per game. Giannis and middleton foul more alone. Giannis is not as disciplined nor has the basketball IQ of AD or lebron, middleton just cant really guard right now. dame fouls as much as dlo roughly, beasly, similar to reaves. The difference is in these 3 front court players i mentioned.

Reaves free throw rate is almost half what it was last season. his game didnt change. players just stopped fouling him so much. AD only getting 6.7, lebron is at a career low in free throws attempted. Jaxson hayes fouls as much as he did last season. They just are smart players who play with the intention to not foul and draw their own fouls. lebron isnt fouling because his overall activity isnt that high he's seen every move. hes never fouled a lot. neither has butler, neither has kawhi.

[levon]

I answered your 3 questions with data in which you were wrong and then you switched it up. I’ve gone into a much deeper dive in the other thread from last year and spent good time on it.

As I said then, it’s a statical anomaly for the margin to be this wide. In the last season, the gap between the 1st and 2nd is the same as 2nd and 30th. That just shouldn’t happen in any statistic in any sport.

Statistical anomalies don't happen in sports ever. Look, there's a historical analysis in the article too. The Lakers rank up their among teams all time when normalize, but it's not really close to egregious. Lots of modern teams post anomalies every year. If you think the refs were mandated to get LeBron into the playoffs at all costs, that's fine with me.

I've been watching the team every day for multiple decades and it's one of the most unique teams in a multitude of facets. And I'm willing to bet that if they were called the Boston Celtics and all else stayed the same, the same phenomenon would be present.

Also, your last sentence is your opinion whereas you're acting like you're an authority on it because you're a data analyst by trade. If the team is anomalous by construction and scheme, it follows that certain metrics will be anomalous.

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

[NyKnicks1714]

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

the lakers are third in FTA this season, not some runaway stat. The lakers front court of lebron AD and and taurean prince are doing 5.6 fouls per game. Giannis and middleton foul more alone. Giannis is not as disciplined nor has the basketball IQ of AD or lebron, middleton just cant really guard right now. dame fouls as much as dlo roughly, beasly, similar to reaves. The difference is in these 3 front court players i mentioned.

Reaves free throw rate is almost half what it was last season. his game didnt change. players just stopped fouling him so much. AD only getting 6.7, lebron is at a career low in free throws attempted. Jaxson hayes fouls as much as he did last season. They just are smart players who play with the intention to not foul and draw their own fouls. lebron isnt fouling because his overall activity isnt that high he's seen every move. hes never fouled a lot. neither has butler, neither has kawhi,

Luol Deng was another guy like that, just didn't foul at all. All very smart defenders with good strength and size.

[Lockdown504090]

Statistical anomalies don't happen in sports ever. Look, there's a historical analysis in the article too. The Lakers rank up their among teams all time when normalize, but it's not really close to egregious. Lots of modern teams post anomalies every year. If you think the refs were mandated to get LeBron into the playoffs at all costs, that's fine with me.

I've been watching the team every day for multiple decades and it's one of the most unique teams in a multitude of facets. And I'm willing to bet that if they were called the Boston Celtics and all else stayed the same, the same phenomenon would be present.

Also, your last sentence is your opinion whereas you're acting like you're an authority on it because you're a data analyst by trade. If the team is anomalous by construction and scheme, it follows that certain metrics will be anomalous.

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except thatthey all hated the Raptors.

not more than the raptors front office.

[NbaAllDay]

If people didn't reason themselves into a position with any logic or evidence you won't reason them out of it using any of it.

The issue with the commentary here is people see the outcome (FT disparity) draw a conclusion and skim basic levels of 'evidence' to support said claim.

Does anyone actually have a break down of calls that LA were given that shouldn't have been?

"My siblings gets punished far less than me, they must be the favourite or my Parents have it out to get me"

The OP post shows a fair reasoning as to the disparity.

You could argue it's still larger than it should be. Sure, so show some evidence for it.

You can't build your evidence by saying "look at this outcome therefore thus must be true" you actually need to show a breakdown or you end up just using circular logic.

If you really think this argument has been 'dismantled' and that there is some conspiracy then please show it without extrapolating from pure outcomes.

If you can show a clear bias in calls with a list of examples then I'd happily agree with the assumption.

[NyKnicks1714]

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

the lakers are third in FTA this season, not some runaway stat.

3rd in FTA, 2nd in opponent FTA behind Boston. When you look at their players and their game plans, it's completely reasonable.

[ChipotleWest]

Ham/bud teams don’t foul, they drill it constantly. Lebron has never fouled a lot. There’s also little reason to foul when you have a top 50 all time defender behind you.

Weird that Bud teams never had these types of differentials with a guy who has more free throws in Giannis and better defenders across the board with Giannis, Lopez and Jrue.

the lakers are third in FTA this season, not some runaway stat. The lakers front court of lebron AD and and taurean prince are doing 5.6 fouls per game. Giannis and middleton foul more alone. Giannis is not as disciplined nor has the basketball IQ of AD or lebron, middleton just cant really guard right now. dame fouls as much as dlo roughly, beasly, similar to reaves. The difference is in these 3 front court players i mentioned.

Reaves free throw rate is almost half what it was last season. his game didnt change. players just stopped fouling him so much. AD only getting 6.7, lebron is at a career low in free throws attempted. Jaxson hayes fouls as much as he did last season. They just are smart players who play with the intention to not foul and draw their own fouls. lebron isnt fouling because his overall activity isnt that high he's seen every move. hes never fouled a lot. neither has butler, neither has kawhi.

This thread is NOT "The Lakers have the most free throws in the NBA"

This thread is "The Lakers have the biggest free throw advantage" Because they're getting more than their opponents by the largest gap for the 2nd year in a row.

It's NOT just about how many they shoot, it's about how many their opponents don't shoot.

[AussieCeltic]

Statistical anomalies don't happen in sports ever. Look, there's a historical analysis in the article too. The Lakers rank up their among teams all time when normalize, but it's not really close to egregious. Lots of modern teams post anomalies every year. If you think the refs were mandated to get LeBron into the playoffs at all costs, that's fine with me.

I've been watching the team every day for multiple decades and it's one of the most unique teams in a multitude of facets. And I'm willing to bet that if they were called the Boston Celtics and all else stayed the same, the same phenomenon would be present.

Also, your last sentence is your opinion whereas you're acting like you're an authority on it because you're a data analyst by trade. If the team is anomalous by construction and scheme, it follows that certain metrics will be anomalous.

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

I also don’t care if it’s low or that the Lakers are #1 (someone has to be right?). It’s the size of the differential that stands out and it’s a huge huge number. Just something that shouldn’t happen in any sports when the outcome is largely determined by the ref.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

[NyKnicks1714]

If people didn't reason themselves into a position with any logic, you won't reason them out of it using logic.

The hard part is me learning how to stop attempting to do exactly that.

[NbaAllDay]

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

Askong questions is a good thing. Making assumptions based on them with just outcomes isn't proof of anything. It's just the starting blocks to actually obtaining evidence.

To actually prove your point you would need to show a list of calls the LA have gotten unfairly (or gotten away with).

Yes this would require some work but it's legitimately the only form of evidence that would prove these claims.

[levon]

The funny thing to me is their defensive strategy is not even working that well. If they changed up their coverages more often, they would at least be solidly above average in my view. If you dislike the Lakers you should be happy this is their defensive game plan instead of one which maximizes their potential on defense.

I've wanted to started a thread about the merits of his strategy, but knew it would be drowned out by the vocal minority who want to shout conspiracy instead of talk basketball. I think constant drop coverage can work in theory for some teams, but it doesn't make sense when you have an elite defender like AD and someone like LeBron who's great at reading offenses and is versatile and decent even if no longer great.

If you get a team with poor defensive abilities, going to a strategy like this could work nicely to go from bad to maybe below average. It kind of just raises your floor.

I want to quote this again for truth. Thank you for understanding. I think you understand this because you regularly watch the games.

The folks who claim conspiracy are basically suggesting the Lakers would be the dredge of the league without a historic whistle. They don't get that the disparity is a consequence of an inoptimal style of play. This team drives into traffic because it's not a three point shooting team, and it regularly funnels players to the three because it can't make over 2 rotations when scrambling without completely collapsing. They've won dirty. The foul disparity is basically a proxy for how hard they're trying to brute force, and it works against teams that they can physically overwhelm.

[SweaterBae]

The size of the disparity is the issue and is not backed up by the Ringer's fact finding.

[NyKnicks1714]

If you can show a clear bias in calls with a list of examples then I'd happily agree with the assumption.

I don't expect anyone to take a random sampling of 25 plays from each game and analyze them for bad calls and non-calls. But if someone is willing to actually get in the weeds of how the Lakers play and how that along with their individual talents does not lend itself to a high free throw differential, I'm listening. But instead it's just the FT differential stat again and again.

[ChipotleWest]

The folks who claim conspiracy are basically suggesting the Lakers would be the dredge of the league without a historic whistle.

Well yeah they're likely to be a play in team for the 2nd year in a row. Without the free throw discrepancy they miss the playoffs probably for the 3rd year in a row. (because last year they had the discrepancy as well and got in as a play in and made the WCF) the year before the discrepancies started they missed the playoffs entirely.

If they're a great team why can't they just be a top 4-6 seed?

[levon]

What makes the Lakers anomalous though? It’s been brought up that it’s a Bud/Ham scheme. Well I’d argue that Giannis, Lopez, Jrue and Middleton would’ve been more equipped to have a better FTA differential if they run on the same schemes yet the Bucks were never a high FTA differential team. Heck they were negative in plenty of months (which should happen from time to time mind you).

I don’t believe it’s a league mandate per se, but like what Donaghy said.. the league does make it clear who they want in the playoffs and big games. If some need a little assistance to get there, they’ll make it happen or the refs won’t be seeing the floor in the important games.

Also, if you can point out any statistic in any sport around the world where the difference between 1st and 2nd is larger than that of 2nd and last, I’ll concede my point.

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

I also don’t care if it’s low or that the Lakers are #1 (someone has to be right?). It’s the size of the differential that stands out and it’s a huge huge number. Just something that shouldn’t happen in any sports when the outcome is largely determined by the ref.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

You keep doing the same thing, which is just giving me various slices of the same phenomenon. I understand LeBron's reduced his fouls and that the Lakers as a whole don't foul. I watch them not foul. I watch LeBron just switch everything at the elbow and often guard the worst offensive player. It's literally in the tape.

We don't agree not because we're Lakers and Celtics fans respectively. It's like a fundamental breakdown in empirical process. Others have called you out for arguing there's something unjust by reframing the same effect over and over in different terms and never providing evidence of the cause. My mistake (guilty pleasure?) is trying to explain the cause using basketball reasons, which you then cherrypick stats to shoot down because of dunk-on culture.

No, I wouldn't be asking these questions. I frankly didn't give a **** about the 2017-2018 Charlotte Hornets. In fact, I didn't even know. The only reason this is even a meme instead of a "huh, interesting" stat is because of the logo.

[AussieCeltic]

I think it starts with LeBron and AD who were never foulers to begin with long before they were Lakers players. Then the drop coverage. Then the increased aggression when teetering on desperation (if you ever watch AD over the course of 82, you know he can get 8 FTA if he's going into the defender vs nights where he shoots bs hooks and jumpers). Then the foul merchant guards. The interior volume. The increased perimeter defense with Vanderbilt. All compounding with the fact that once a foul limit is reached, every foul is free throws.

That's a unique build. No other team has a superstar 4 and 5 who are also all-time intelligent defenders who like to overwhelm you in transition.

Now do I believe superstars get a favorable whistle? Of course. Do I believe the league would prefer LA in the playoffs? No doubt. But do I believe that every ref hive minded LA to the playoffs with no mandate or that there is an implicit punishment system if you don't align with the Laker agenda? Obviously not. Put another way, ref bias is a factor, but if you did a factor analysis the actual basketball blows it away.

If you have evidence that refs who were unfavorable to the Lakers got left home from big games, let me know. I did a simple analysis on w-l record for a few refs last season and saw no consistent bias except that they all hated the Raptors.

Vanderbilt has only played 55 games for the Lakers so may as well throw that out. There’s no differentiator with him being in or out.

Lebron has decreased his fouls per game the last 2 seasons dramatically. He’s now down to 1.2 per game in 35 mins of play. The lowest of any player over 30 mins of play.

Look, I can see we’re never going to agree. I think Laker fans need to have a look and really ask themselves if they wouldn’t be asking the same questions if it were another team doing this. Because, I’ve seen the Laker fans in this very thread complaining in game threads about calls. Well, welcome to every single opponent vs your team.

Askong questions is a good thing. Making assumptions based on them with just outcomes isn't proof of anything. It's just the starting blocks to actually obtaining evidence.

To actually prove your point you would need to show a list of calls the LA have gotten unfairly (or gotten away with).

Yes this would require some work but it's legitimately the only form of evidence that would prove these claims.

They’re pointed out in game threads ad nauseam. If you pay attention there, you can generally see the majority agree with statistics and that’s it’s a regular thing. Unlike others, I’m happy to point out if my team gets the benefit of a call. Laker fans act like their team has never committed a foul and most believe they should be getting an even better differential!

You really think someone has the time to go through each and every call of each game? Or can we use the statistics available to us and realise that it’s near impossible for this to be happening without some sort of interference.

[NyKnicks1714]

The funny thing to me is their defensive strategy is not even working that well. If they changed up their coverages more often, they would at least be solidly above average in my view. If you dislike the Lakers you should be happy this is their defensive game plan instead of one which maximizes their potential on defense.

I've wanted to started a thread about the merits of his strategy, but knew it would be drowned out by the vocal minority who want to shout conspiracy instead of talk basketball. I think constant drop coverage can work in theory for some teams, but it doesn't make sense when you have an elite defender like AD and someone like LeBron who's great at reading offenses and is versatile and decent even if no longer great.

If you get a team with poor defensive abilities, going to a strategy like this could work nicely to go from bad to maybe below average. It kind of just raises your floor.

I want to quote this again for truth. Thank you for understanding. I think you understand this because you regularly watch the games.

The folks who claim conspiracy are basically suggesting the Lakers would be the dredge of the league without a historic whistle. They don't get that the disparity is a consequence of an inoptimal style of play. This team drives into traffic because it's not a three point shooting team, and it regularly funnels players to the three because it can't make over 2 rotations when scrambling without completely collapsing. They've won dirty. The foul disparity is basically a proxy for how hard they're trying to brute force, and it works against teams that they can physically overwhelm.

I'll be upset when LeBron retires because I'm obviously a fan of his, but will be happy to not have to watch and in most cases root for the Lakers so much.

Irrespective of LeBron and the attention they get, they've just been an interesting and novel team to follow, especially with how they're playing this season.