Some musings on the Jazz

[dc]

FWIW I think almost every fan base quickly loses patience in a rebuild. The tankers all claim they want it until it's actually here and the team sucks (see Raptors board).

Problem with the Jazz tank is they've won too much to tank properly. Last year they took themselves out of the Wemby sweepstakes within the first 20-25 games.

It was actually fun watching them exceed expectations for a bit, but then you realized they had a certain ceiling and they were stuck in late lottery land.

[Dan Z]

The major issue for the Jazz is that it's unclear what direction they're going as Ainge keeps randomly lying to the media and seemingly the players.

Ainge lied to WoJ right after the Gobert trade and said "we're not thinking of trading Mitchell" and then Ainge seemingly lied to Markkanen and the rest of the team about making the playoffs and those lies served no advantage. It's impossible to find a direction because the entire situation has been so strange and pointlessly deceptive. The players being furious post trade deadline was just a really bad look.

There's also very little reason to trust the ownership long-term which makes any rebuild much more questionable. Ryan Smith trading picks to salary dump after the Clippers series is one of the cheapest moves I've ever seen from an owner. We had gone 50-22 and had six picks to trade for good wing defenders and instead dumped salary.

Also, Will Hardy seems to be trying to intentionally lose these games and while that helps our draft pick, I've never seen a coach actually do this before, lol. Coaches seem mostly to just tune out during tanks, not try purposefully try to get their team to lose.

I wonder if Markkanen will ask for a trade if the Jazz decide to tank again next season.

[Hugi Mancura]

I don't see any of the current roster to become all star level with the exception of Markkanen. So I think only way to become good comes from future draft and to be exact 2025 or 2026 drafts. It will take 3-5 years for drafted players to become good, so I would presume Utah, if lucky, could become a competitive team in year 2029 or 2030. And how old Markkanen is at that time? 31 or 32? I think they should trade Markkanen while he has very high value. I don't think his value will become any higher and even if would, not much. So Utah should see how the draft lottery goes and if a team like Spurs or Memphis gets the first pick then maybe try to trade Markkanen to those teams and build a team from draft (like they should have done from beginning).

[phanman]

As good as Lauri is, I still think it was a mistake to hold onto him this trade deadline when his value arguably peaked. He only has 1 year left on his bargain 18m contract after this season. When he inks that max contract he's going to valued much differently in the open market and the team will be left with much fewer trade partners.

If I'm not mistaken, did the Ainge & Co. shut down any trade talks for him? I always thought he was a match made in OKC and prying Giddey + filler & a boatload of picks again would have better rebuilding piece than maxing out a 27yo Lauri.

[Johnny Bball]

The thunder took two years of trading to get bad enough to tank. The Spurs took longer among recent examples. Jazz followed the first year of dismantling then didn't follow up on further ripping it down the 2nd year. And sit in no mans of the lottery. I think the problem might have been there were no picks being traded left, or it just might be Danny Ainge doing what he did last time but not following through all the way.

[madmaxmedia]

Question: Aside from retaining value, what is the point of keeping Lauri? Unless you want him to be re-signed to be traded later.

I guess the point is you need to start somewhere. You'd love to start with a top 10 player. But, you can't always count on that. If a Godfather offer comes along you have to take it for him. Much like you did with Mitchell and Gobert. But, if one doesn't, Lauri is a fine piece to start building with.

I guess you can only really evaluate this debate if you had some sort of tangible trade scenario at play, because this is a judgement call and what you'd actually get in return is a huge factor as to whether you 'should' trade Lauri.

[giberish]

The past two seasons they've been competitive until the trade deadline where they transitioned to a late-season tank. I don't see how they do that again next year. Instead of half-assing things they need to either whole-ass a tank or compete all season.

The case for competing is that they were a .500 team when trying this year with a somewhat young roster and have assets to make a win-now move to improve from there. The downside is that the WC looks really tough next year.

The case for a full rebuild is that they don't have a clear path to a title contender right now and there won't be much 'competition' at the bottom of the WC for the next year or two (really just Portland). The downside is that fans and owners don't like sitting through multiple seasons of sucking. Also, the key move for a rebuild is trading Lauri and he presumably had more value at the trade deadline.

[pipfan]

I really think they should deal Lauri and Sexton and build around George, Kessler, Hendricks-plus their #8 pick this year and what they get for their guys. Start fresh and go all in on a '25 tank. Give the kids tons of minutes, clear cap space and start over in the '25-26 year.

I'm sure SA would give up a ton for Lauri, as might OKC. Sexton has built some value as well. start over and see what you can build-the West is SO competitive right now that they have little hope of building a 50 win team in the next 2 years

[BigGargamel]

I think the Jazz would trade Lauri if they got an offer worth it. More mid first round picks to trade an All Star is not worth it.

What's going on with them is basically the worst case scenario when it comes to tearing down a roster. It's not as easy as it seems. They moved their two best players, but only have a bunch of middling first round picks to show for it. They are clearly tanking, but still have too much talent to really bottom out. So they are wasting years to draft in the 7-12 range. That's not going to make any difference. It's not always easy, you have to have a lot of lottery luck.

They also traded for John Collins, started out pretty well, then tanked even though a play in spot was well within reach. Pick a lane and stick to it.

[Dan Z]

I think the Jazz would trade Lauri if they got an offer worth it. More mid first round picks to trade an All Star is not worth it.

What's going on with them is basically the worst case scenario when it comes to tearing down a roster. It's not as easy as it seems. They moved their two best players, but only have a bunch of middling first round picks to show for it. They are clearly tanking, but still have too much talent to really bottom out. So they are wasting years to draft in the 7-12 range. That's not going to make any difference. It's not always easy, you have to have a lot of lottery luck.

They also traded for John Collins, started out pretty well, then tanked even though a play in spot was well within reach. Pick a lane and stick to it.

Maybe Ainge wanted to wait until the draft to trade Markkanen? That way he can target a player.

If the Jazz repeat themselves next year (meaning tank starting around the deadline) then I imagine that players like Sexton and Markkanen might want to move on.

[zimpy27]

Question: Aside from retaining value, what is the point of keeping Lauri? Unless you want him to be re-signed to be traded later.

It's hard to find All Star-level 7-footers with 50-40-88 shooting splits who also like being in the mountains.

I think the confusing part is that the Jazz had 2 all star players (one mid-twenties) that they traded for lesser players and picks, turns out one of the lesser players turns on to an all star for the Jazz and the Jazz are all like "Yay, a mid-twenties all star! We always wanted one of these! Let's keep him and not trade him for picks and lesser players."

I'm confused by it.

[Hugi Mancura]

I think the Jazz would trade Lauri if they got an offer worth it. More mid first round picks to trade an All Star is not worth it.

What's going on with them is basically the worst case scenario when it comes to tearing down a roster. It's not as easy as it seems. They moved their two best players, but only have a bunch of middling first round picks to show for it. They are clearly tanking, but still have too much talent to really bottom out. So they are wasting years to draft in the 7-12 range. That's not going to make any difference. It's not always easy, you have to have a lot of lottery luck.

They also traded for John Collins, started out pretty well, then tanked even though a play in spot was well within reach. Pick a lane and stick to it.

Maybe Ainge wanted to wait until the draft to trade Markkanen? That way he can target a player.

If the Jazz repeat themselves next year (meaning tank starting around the deadline) then I imagine that players like Sexton and Markkanen might want to move on.

If Ainge wants picks then it is better to wait until draft, so waiting until draft is logical. Teams usually have more draft capital during draft than they have during the season. Only problem is that teams have harder time to match the salaries, but with Markkanen's low salary that shouldn't be the issue either.

Or they keep Markkanen to sell tickets. If Utah only adds rookies and trade Sexton away there will be no real players in the team and no matter how well Markkanen would play that team would be bottom 3. No-one could save that team.

[Dan Z]

I think the Jazz would trade Lauri if they got an offer worth it. More mid first round picks to trade an All Star is not worth it.

What's going on with them is basically the worst case scenario when it comes to tearing down a roster. It's not as easy as it seems. They moved their two best players, but only have a bunch of middling first round picks to show for it. They are clearly tanking, but still have too much talent to really bottom out. So they are wasting years to draft in the 7-12 range. That's not going to make any difference. It's not always easy, you have to have a lot of lottery luck.

They also traded for John Collins, started out pretty well, then tanked even though a play in spot was well within reach. Pick a lane and stick to it.

Maybe Ainge wanted to wait until the draft to trade Markkanen? That way he can target a player.

If the Jazz repeat themselves next year (meaning tank starting around the deadline) then I imagine that players like Sexton and Markkanen might want to move on.

If Ainge wants picks then it is better to wait until draft, so waiting until draft is logical. Teams usually have more draft capital during draft than they have during the season. Only problem is that teams have harder time to match the salaries, but with Markkanen's low salary that shouldn't be the issue either.

Or they keep Markkanen to sell tickets. If Utah only adds rookies and trade Sexton away there will be no real players in the team and no matter how well Markkanen would play that team would be bottom 3. No-one could save that team.

One issue with that is Markkanen. Will he be happy on a team that continuously tanks? Probably not.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Danny Ainge inherited a team that had reached its Zenith as is and needed a teardown. Acquiring draft picks, young players and tradable contracts is by design and in the hopes they can land franchise changing talent. It's a process that could take years. They've decided to prioritize this rather than making the play-in, which they could have had they tried and if fans are frustrated by this, it's understandable. But they haven't outright tanked and while they've been doing this they've added young talent with promise.

Markkanen is very solid #2. I disagree about Collins and Sexton. They're both just products of usage, meaning like any player that gets usage, they'll put up numbers. They bring nothing to the table and shouldn't be considered part of the Jazz' future. Kessler is a backup big at best and a non-factor. What the Jazz have is Markkanen and potential role players in Hendricks, George and Sensabaugh.

Like you said, finding the elusive #1 is the ultimate goal and the hardest to accomplish. I think Danny Ainge has done an admirable job thus far. I personally think that there's a chance he's going to go after Jaylen Brown and his albatross contract should the Celtics fail to win the championship this year and that's why he's amassing all that salary and those picks. I don't view him as a #1 but he and Markkanen with a decent surrounding cast is good enough to make the playoffs and win a playoff series in the West with how the top teams are aging which is kind of the best you can expect as Jazz fans imo, if we're being completely honest given the city.