2024 NBA Playoffs - West 1st Round: #4 Los Angeles Clippers vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (DAL leads 3-2)

[durden_tyler]

Game 5: Wed May 1 at 10pmET on TNT



3 play dates to go, plus play-in games and yet here we are with this first round series set already (rather a rare one considering the chaos in the seedings in the East and West).

Disappointed in RealGM that we don’t have a stickied thread yet

Homecourt pending (likely LAC but DAL is surging so who knows, plus this is the best time for “load management” from both sides since you’d rather be healthy in that series)

So who’s advancing from this lovely rivalry (recent at least)? Which one is the favored squad? Will Kawhi play or be healthy? Can the Mavs— led by Luka and Kyrie continue their excellent form of late?

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[EmpireFalls]

I’m getting flashbacks to their 2020 and 2021 series and salivating. Those were some of the most dramatic first round series I’ve ever watched, especially ‘21 where Luka and Kawhi took turns looking superhuman. I’m not sure we give enough credit to either player for their play in those series.

The issue is, I have this pit in my stomach reading about Kawhi’s mysterious knee injury. It seems all too familiar. I’m guessing Mavs in 5/6, with Kawhi not finishing the series.

[Dubious Handles]

Calling it now this will be the best series of this years Playoffs. Hoping for a healthy Kawhi as well!

[Quattro]

Hmm. Do I cheer for Harden or Kyrie. Tough one

[RB34]

Luka gonna go scorched earth

[THE J0KER]

I see a 3.5 — 3.5 final result with no bigger than a +/- 0.5 margin mistake!

[One_and_Done]

Really crummy reward for Luka's great play. This is his worst match up.

[Archx]

Really crummy reward for Luka's great play. This is his worst match up.

I would say Wolves with long athletic defenders. He basically always had insane numbers vs LAC. I was actually hoping Mavs play LAC instead of Wolves in the 1st round.

[SpreeS]

DAL with Doncic has 14 wins in last 15 games. The hottest team in NBA at the moment. One side of the PO brakets could be way more loaded than other.

DEN/DAL/LAC/(LAL/GSW/SAC)
MIN/OKC/NOLA/PHO (SAC)

I could say that DAL is second best team in the West how they paly now.

[dirkdiggler4177]

This is a bad matchup for the Mavericks. Both teams have gotten more talented since the last series. Last time Jalen Brunson was 8 ppg playoff scorer against the Clippers and KP was injured and not mentally in it. Rick Carlisle basically told him to stand in the corner.

Now the Mavs are healthy (the only player coming in injured is Dereck Lively) and they rolling. In the last 20 and 10 games they are number 1 one in defensive rating and number 5 in offensive rating. They are also number one in wins, winning 16 out of 20.

The challenge is the big 3 because Luka and Irving have to guard one of them.

Harden - Derrick Jones (lengthy and pesky defender that can take away passing lanes)
Mann - Irving (Dont see him guarding and there is nobody else for him)
Paul George - Luka (PG got the least "takeover" the game playstyle IMO. He will get his, but Harden will handle the ball and Kawhi will be the clutch scorer)
Kawhi Leonard - PJ. Washington (P.J has been awesome defensively. He is very strong and an annoying player to go up against)
Zubac - Gafford (It will be interesting to see how Zubac handles Gafford. Gafford brings a lot of energy and hustle)

I think the Mavs take this one. The Clippers will struggle to get going because of the defense and lose trust in the offense. The way the Clippers win is if Harden takes all bad experience from the playoffs and becomes some sort of Chris Paul player, making all the right reads and setting up Kawhi and PG. They need a lot of movement and team play. The help defense for the Mavs has been fantastic. They are rotating really well, so the Clipps have to bring their A-game.

[jokeboy86]

As far as the losing coach of this series:

[GamecockFan1024]

All depends on the health of Kawhi quite honestly. I think LAC is a bad matchup for the Mavericks overall. Luka and Kyrie will get theirs obviously, but they don't have enough wings to slow down the Clips. I think the Clippers take it if Kawhi comes back 100%.

[MavsDirk41]

This is a bad matchup for the Mavericks. Both teams have gotten more talented since the last series. Last time Jalen Brunson was 8 ppg playoff scorer against the Clippers and KP was injured and not mentally in it. Rick Carlisle basically told him to stand in the corner.

Now the Mavs are healthy (the only player coming in injured is Dereck Lively) and they rolling. In the last 20 and 10 games they are number 1 one in defensive rating and number 5 in offensive rating. They are also number one in wins, winning 16 out of 20.

The challenge is the big 3 because Luka and Irving have to guard one of them.

Harden - Derrick Jones (lengthy and pesky defender that can take away passing lanes)
Mann - Irving (Dont see him guarding and there is nobody else for him)
Paul George - Luka (PG got the least "takeover" the game playstyle IMO. He will get his, but Harden will handle the ball and Kawhi will be the clutch scorer)
Kawhi Leonard - PJ. Washington (P.J has been awesome defensively. He is very strong and an annoying player to go up against)
Zubac - Gafford (It will be interesting to see how Zubac handles Gafford. Gafford brings a lot of energy and hustle)

I think the Mavs take this one. The Clippers will struggle to get going because of the defense and lose trust in the offense. The way the Clippers win is if Harden takes all bad experience from the playoffs and becomes some sort of Chris Paul player, making all the right reads and setting up Kawhi and PG. They need a lot of movement and team play. The help defense for the Mavs has been fantastic. They are rotating really well, so the Clipps have to bring their A-game.

Leonard could be a little rusty for the playoffs too as i dont see him playing until the playoffs start. Mavs definitely have the momentum and the length with Gafford and hopefully Lively to protect the paint. Kleber has been playing well too. Im a homer obviously but i like the Mavs in this one.

[MavsDirk41]

All depends on the health of Kawhi quite honestly. I think LAC is a bad matchup for the Mavericks overall. Luka and Kyrie will get theirs obviously, but they don't have enough wings to slow down the Clips. I think the Clippers take it if Kawhi comes back 100%.

Josh Green, Jones, and PJ are all solid defenders. PJ has been tremendous defensively.

[Mavrelous]

This is a bad matchup for the Mavericks. Both teams have gotten more talented since the last series. Last time Jalen Brunson was 8 ppg playoff scorer against the Clippers and KP was injured and not mentally in it. Rick Carlisle basically told him to stand in the corner.

Now the Mavs are healthy (the only player coming in injured is Dereck Lively) and they rolling. In the last 20 and 10 games they are number 1 one in defensive rating and number 5 in offensive rating. They are also number one in wins, winning 16 out of 20.

The challenge is the big 3 because Luka and Irving have to guard one of them.

Harden - Derrick Jones (lengthy and pesky defender that can take away passing lanes)
Mann - Irving (Dont see him guarding and there is nobody else for him)
Paul George - Luka (PG got the least "takeover" the game playstyle IMO. He will get his, but Harden will handle the ball and Kawhi will be the clutch scorer)
Kawhi Leonard - PJ. Washington (P.J has been awesome defensively. He is very strong and an annoying player to go up against)
Zubac - Gafford (It will be interesting to see how Zubac handles Gafford. Gafford brings a lot of energy and hustle)

I think the Mavs take this one. The Clippers will struggle to get going because of the defense and lose trust in the offense. The way the Clippers win is if Harden takes all bad experience from the playoffs and becomes some sort of Chris Paul player, making all the right reads and setting up Kawhi and PG. They need a lot of movement and team play. The help defense for the Mavs has been fantastic. They are rotating really well, so the Clipps have to bring their A-game.

DJJ will be on PG13, one of Luka or Kyrie will be on Harden, most likely Kyrie, Harden will try to hunt Luka anyway, it'll be interesting if Kidd switches or continues to protect Luka.
It'll be small ball series IMO, PJ/Luka/DJJ/Exum/Kyrie lineup will play a lot and Maxi will play play a lot.
Huge X-factor for the Clippers was Batum, he allowed the Clippers to go small ball and killed the Mavs, interesting who their small ball 5 will be, PJ Tucker isn't the spacer Batum was or the rim protector, I'd bet Kidd will just stop guarding him.

[Mavrelous]

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[lambchop]

All depends on the health of Kawhi quite honestly. I think LAC is a bad matchup for the Mavericks overall. Luka and Kyrie will get theirs obviously, but they don't have enough wings to slow down the Clips. I think the Clippers take it if Kawhi comes back 100%.

Josh Green, Jones, and PJ are all solid defenders. PJ has been tremendous defensively.

The issue with defending Kawhi is that he is very strong and has those mid range and close range jumpers down. PJ Washington is a nice defender, but probably too weak overall. That said, the Clips will probably have similar issues guarding Luka. PJ Tucker might actually be the clippers best defender on Luka, given his size and strength. Even is his finishes with zero points, it's not an issue, as long as Harden, Kawhi and PG are producing.

Will be interesting to see how Kyrie plays in this series too.

[Ssj16]

At this juncture, I'm easily taking the Mavs. I don't see why LAC is a bad matchup.

It's true for a period of time, LAC was looking like the best team in the nba, but they have come back to earth since the all star break and they are looking like the Clippers who discombobulate in the playoffs for one reason or another and they have to face Luka at the peak of his powers with the best team he's played on in the NBA.

I'd be shocked if Clippers pull this one out.

[dirkdiggler4177]

This is a bad matchup for the Mavericks. Both teams have gotten more talented since the last series. Last time Jalen Brunson was 8 ppg playoff scorer against the Clippers and KP was injured and not mentally in it. Rick Carlisle basically told him to stand in the corner.

Now the Mavs are healthy (the only player coming in injured is Dereck Lively) and they rolling. In the last 20 and 10 games they are number 1 one in defensive rating and number 5 in offensive rating. They are also number one in wins, winning 16 out of 20.

The challenge is the big 3 because Luka and Irving have to guard one of them.

Harden - Derrick Jones (lengthy and pesky defender that can take away passing lanes)
Mann - Irving (Dont see him guarding and there is nobody else for him)
Paul George - Luka (PG got the least "takeover" the game playstyle IMO. He will get his, but Harden will handle the ball and Kawhi will be the clutch scorer)
Kawhi Leonard - PJ. Washington (P.J has been awesome defensively. He is very strong and an annoying player to go up against)
Zubac - Gafford (It will be interesting to see how Zubac handles Gafford. Gafford brings a lot of energy and hustle)

I think the Mavs take this one. The Clippers will struggle to get going because of the defense and lose trust in the offense. The way the Clippers win is if Harden takes all bad experience from the playoffs and becomes some sort of Chris Paul player, making all the right reads and setting up Kawhi and PG. They need a lot of movement and team play. The help defense for the Mavs has been fantastic. They are rotating really well, so the Clipps have to bring their A-game.

DJJ will be on PG13, one of Luka or Kyrie will be on Harden, most likely Kyrie, Harden will try to hunt Luka anyway, it'll be interesting if Kidd switches or continues to protect Luka.
It'll be small ball series IMO, PJ/Luka/DJJ/Exum/Kyrie lineup will play a lot and Maxi will play play a lot.
Huge X-factor for the Clippers was Batum, he allowed the Clippers to go small ball and killed the Mavs, interesting who their small ball 5 will be, PJ Tucker isn't the spacer Batum was or the rim protector, I'd bet Kidd will just stop guarding him.

You are right. It will most likely go small ball.

They don't really have a small ball lineup in the classic sense that everybody can shoot 3-pointers while also having some muscle on help defense unless you run a lineup of Harden, Mann, Amir Coffey, PG, and Kawhi. That takes away the matchup problem because Luka and Ky can chill on Mann and Coffey while Jones, Washington, and Kleber+Josh Green defense the big 3.
https://www.82games.com/2324/2324LAC2.HTM

[RoyceDa59]

Something is telling me the Mavs finally take this one.

Luke will finally prove to just be too good. And the Kawhi knee tweak really concerns me.

Kyrie is balling and is a playoff menace when healthy, too.

Mavs in 7.