2024 NBA Playoffs - East 1st Round: #4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 Orlando Magic (CLE leads 3-2)

[Bakomagic]

Kinda wild that Magic in 6 is winning the poll.

Yes, JB Bickerstaff is a BAD playoff coach.

Yes, The Cavs have struggled post all star break

Yes, the Cavs have never shown the ability to win big games

but who the heck is going to score on the Magic? Is Paolo gonna be your offensive engine? Good luck. Franz? He's fine but do you want him running a playoff offense?

I don't think this Cavs team is particularly good and JB has proven to be a terrible coach when it matters but the talent discrepancy is too wide.

Look I don't expect the magic to win this series but people have been saying how are the magic gonna score all season and yet they some how won 47 games....

Quite honestly the magic are kinda built for the playoffs. Defensive minded, slower pace, a guy that you can give the ball to and get a bucket( paolo) strong bench unit, etc.

It comes down to this with the magic, if they can limit the self inflicted wounds ( turnovers, second chance points, 50/50 balls, fouling shooters, etc) they can without question make this an intresting series.

Now of course that comes with them being able to atleast hit some OPEN 3s( which they have struggled with) to go along with that.

I have Cleveland in this one in 6 but orlando I think can make it intresting if they lock in.

Are we sure Paolo is that guy? He had pretty bad efficiency on really high usage this season. He can't really shoot, isn't great at the rim, isn't a great ball handler, and isn't that good of a playmaker.

Miami is a pretty similar team to the Cavs in terms of defense & pace and Orlando scored an average of 100.5 pts and went 1-3 across 4 games. Again, Cleveland isn't a good team but they do have a good defense, and a lot more offensive firepower than the Magic.

Why are you referencing Miami v Orlando games when the cavs and Magic have played each other four times?

[Raps in 4]

No clue. I'm guessing it goes 6-7 games though.

[jasonxxx102]

Look I don't expect the magic to win this series but people have been saying how are the magic gonna score all season and yet they some how won 47 games....

Quite honestly the magic are kinda built for the playoffs. Defensive minded, slower pace, a guy that you can give the ball to and get a bucket( paolo) strong bench unit, etc.

It comes down to this with the magic, if they can limit the self inflicted wounds ( turnovers, second chance points, 50/50 balls, fouling shooters, etc) they can without question make this an intresting series.

Now of course that comes with them being able to atleast hit some OPEN 3s( which they have struggled with) to go along with that.

I have Cleveland in this one in 6 but orlando I think can make it intresting if they lock in.

Are we sure Paolo is that guy? He had pretty bad efficiency on really high usage this season. He can't really shoot, isn't great at the rim, isn't a great ball handler, and isn't that good of a playmaker.

Miami is a pretty similar team to the Cavs in terms of defense & pace and Orlando scored an average of 100.5 pts and went 1-3 across 4 games. Again, Cleveland isn't a good team but they do have a good defense, and a lot more offensive firepower than the Magic.

Why are you referencing Miami v Orlando games when the cavs and Magic have played each other four times?

because Miami plays a playoff style game in the regular season and the Cavs were missing either 1 or multiple starters for all but 1 of the games.

[basketballRob]

Are we sure Paolo is that guy? He had pretty bad efficiency on really high usage this season. He can't really shoot, isn't great at the rim, isn't a great ball handler, and isn't that good of a playmaker.

Miami is a pretty similar team to the Cavs in terms of defense & pace and Orlando scored an average of 100.5 pts and went 1-3 across 4 games. Again, Cleveland isn't a good team but they do have a good defense, and a lot more offensive firepower than the Magic.

Why are you referencing Miami v Orlando games when the cavs and Magic have played each other four times?

because Miami plays a playoff style game in the regular season and the Cavs were missing either 1 or multiple starters for all but 1 of the games.

Isaac played against Cleveland 3 times this season, including the 1 preseason game and is 3-0. He's likely to play over 25 mpg in this series.

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[JujitsuFlip]

Why are you referencing Miami v Orlando games when the cavs and Magic have played each other four times?

because Miami plays a playoff style game in the regular season and the Cavs were missing either 1 or multiple starters for all but 1 of the games.

Isaac played against Cleveland 3 times this season, including the 1 preseason game and is 3-0. He's likely to play over 25 mpg in this series.

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Can he guard Mitchell you think? If so that will free up Suggs to be on Garland, which could spell bad news for the Cavs in a 7 game series.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

because Miami plays a playoff style game in the regular season and the Cavs were missing either 1 or multiple starters for all but 1 of the games.

Isaac played against Cleveland 3 times this season, including the 1 preseason game and is 3-0. He's likely to play over 25 mpg in this series.

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Can he guard Mitchell you think? If so that will free up Suggs to be on Garland, which could spell bad news for the Cavs in a 7 game series.

He will not be guarding Mitchell the whole time. He’s our best help defender, he’ll be roaming around. His prime man will be Jarrett Allen.

[basketballRob]

because Miami plays a playoff style game in the regular season and the Cavs were missing either 1 or multiple starters for all but 1 of the games.

Isaac played against Cleveland 3 times this season, including the 1 preseason game and is 3-0. He's likely to play over 25 mpg in this series.

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Can he guard Mitchell you think? If so that will free up Suggs to be on Garland, which could spell bad news for the Cavs in a 7 game series.

Yes, Isaac can guard Mitchell. I'm sure he will some. The problem is that we need like 3 Isaac's. If he's guarding Mitchell, then he isn't protecting the rim and stopping the easy baskets by Allen.

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[Ducklett]

Isaac played against Cleveland 3 times this season, including the 1 preseason game and is 3-0. He's likely to play over 25 mpg in this series.

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Can he guard Mitchell you think? If so that will free up Suggs to be on Garland, which could spell bad news for the Cavs in a 7 game series.

Yes, Isaac can guard Mitchell. I'm sure he will some. The problem is that we need like 3 Isaac's. If he's guarding Mitchell, then he isn't protecting the rim and stopping the easy baskets by Allen.

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We have three great defenders on the SL. Franz is sneaky insane at defense and the games he was out we were a total mess.

[Iwasawitness]

Can he guard Mitchell you think? If so that will free up Suggs to be on Garland, which could spell bad news for the Cavs in a 7 game series.

Yes, Isaac can guard Mitchell. I'm sure he will some. The problem is that we need like 3 Isaac's. If he's guarding Mitchell, then he isn't protecting the rim and stopping the easy baskets by Allen.

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We have three great defenders on the SL. Franz is sneaky insane at defense and the games he was out we were a total mess.

Franz is sneaky insane at defense… that’s a new one.

[basketballRob]

Yes, Isaac can guard Mitchell. I'm sure he will some. The problem is that we need like 3 Isaac's. If he's guarding Mitchell, then he isn't protecting the rim and stopping the easy baskets by Allen.

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We have three great defenders on the SL. Franz is sneaky insane at defense and the games he was out we were a total mess.

Franz is sneaky insane at defense… that’s a new one.

Franz defensive rating was 108.2, and his defensive EPM was 2.3. Both are really good. I don't think he's as good as Wade on defense currently, but he keeps improving and may catch him soon.

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[Iwasawitness]

We have three great defenders on the SL. Franz is sneaky insane at defense and the games he was out we were a total mess.

Franz is sneaky insane at defense… that’s a new one.

Franz defensive rating was 108.2, and his defensive EPM was 2.3. Both are really good. I don't think he's as good as Wade on defense currently, but he keeps improving and may catch him soon.

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Those are both pretty poor things to go by when determining someone’s impact on defense. There’s multiple cavaliers players with great looking advanced defensive metrics, but they themselves aren’t good defenders. That’s the benefit of being on a good defensive team, or in Orlando’s case a great one.

[cgf]

These games will probably make last season's first round look like an offensive bonanza, but I'm low-key very intrigued by this series. The Cavs coming in banged up takes some of the heat out of it and Orlando not being able to grab a PG...even just a mediocre starter like Dejounte Murray...doesn't help me believe in their offense enough to make real noise.

But I'm very curious to see how both teams respond to this series...Orlando to the Cavs essentially picking them as their opponent, and Cleveland to being back in the postseason with another big, strong team that can push you around if you don't impose yourself on them.

Don't have a strong gut feeling on this one. Could see the Cavs taking care of business pretty comfortably, Orlando just imposing their will on this series and the Cavs crumbling, or a long, hard series with a lot of close & low-scoring games. Though I'm rooting for the Magic.

[cgf]

Franz is sneaky insane at defense… that’s a new one.

Franz defensive rating was 108.2, and his defensive EPM was 2.3. Both are really good. I don't think he's as good as Wade on defense currently, but he keeps improving and may catch him soon.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

Those are both pretty poor things to go by when determining someone’s impact on defense. There’s multiple cavaliers players with great looking advanced defensive metrics, but they themselves aren’t good defenders. That’s the benefit of being on a good defensive team, or in Orlando’s case a great one.

Simple NetRtg is dependent on your team-mates, but advanced metrics like EPM & DARKO do a decent job of accounting for variables like that. So just because a player plays with good defenders on a good defense, doesn't ensure them good advanced metrics if they themselves aren't a good defender.

As an example: Would you agree that Mitchell has been a notably better defender than Garland this year? Cause despite both playing with the same defenders in the same scheme, the advanced metrics don't rate them both the same:

Mitchell: +1.2 defensive DARKO, +1.5 DEF EPM
Garland: -0.3 defensive DARKO, -0.5 DEF EPM

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm


No metric on it's own is the be all, end all, but there are some metrics that have fewer weird results and if you look at a few of them to triangulate things, the consensus tends to be informative...not always and context is always needed to understand data, but there is some interesting info out there.

I like DARKO, EPM, and looking at WOWY (with or without you) lineup numbers, but I'm still pretty new to actually paying attention to this stuff.

[JonFromVA]

Franz defensive rating was 108.2, and his defensive EPM was 2.3. Both are really good. I don't think he's as good as Wade on defense currently, but he keeps improving and may catch him soon.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

Those are both pretty poor things to go by when determining someone’s impact on defense. There’s multiple cavaliers players with great looking advanced defensive metrics, but they themselves aren’t good defenders. That’s the benefit of being on a good defensive team, or in Orlando’s case a great one.

Simple NetRtg is dependent on your team-mates, but advanced metrics like EPM & DARKO do a decent job of accounting for variables like that. So just because a player plays with good defenders on a good defense, doesn't ensure them good advanced metrics if they themselves aren't a good defender.

As an example: Would you agree that Mitchell has been a notably better defender than Garland this year? Cause despite both playing with the same defenders in the same scheme, the advanced metrics don't rate them both the same:

Mitchell: +1.2 defensive DARKO, +1.5 DEF EPM
Garland: -0.3 defensive DARKO, -0.5 DEF EPM

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm


No metric on it's own is the be all, end all, but there are some metrics that have fewer weird results and if you look at a few of them to triangulate things, the consensus tends to be informative...not always and context is always needed to understand data, but there is some interesting info out there.

I like DARKO, EPM, and looking at WOWY (with or without you) lineup numbers, but I'm still pretty new to actually paying attention to this stuff.

Actually the disparity between Garland and Mitchell in terms of simple on/off defensive rating is much huger than those stats would indicate. So, they're actually cutting Garland some slack.

Anyway, I don't see any problem statistically crediting Franz. His raw numbers and lineup numbers look quite good. They also support what I've seen in the games I've watched, and that's that Jonathan Isaac's is otherworldly (the Magic have a DRtg of 106.2 when Isaac's on the floor and 114.4 when he's off).

Interestingly Dean Wade is the player who sticks out on the Cavs in terms of these raw stats, as the Cavs have a DRtg of 106.5 when he's on the floor, and 117.1 when he's off. Wade+Allen without Niang has been very tough defensively even with Garland instead of Mitchell.

That the Mobley-Allen lineups have not been able to defend at a similar level this season has been puzzling. I mean why even pair the two if the defense isn't incredible?

Alas, Dean may miss the entire series and/or may not even break the rotation if/when he does return.

The Cavs love what Max Strus brings, but the Core-4 plus Strus has not been that good. There are lineups from previous seasons the Cavs could revisit that they haven't because of injuries or just how their bench rotations work, but just last year Garland-Mitchell-LeVert-E.Mobley-Allen was a much better lineup and they wouldn't need Wade.

[cgf]

Those are both pretty poor things to go by when determining someone’s impact on defense. There’s multiple cavaliers players with great looking advanced defensive metrics, but they themselves aren’t good defenders. That’s the benefit of being on a good defensive team, or in Orlando’s case a great one.

Simple NetRtg is dependent on your team-mates, but advanced metrics like EPM & DARKO do a decent job of accounting for variables like that. So just because a player plays with good defenders on a good defense, doesn't ensure them good advanced metrics if they themselves aren't a good defender.

As an example: Would you agree that Mitchell has been a notably better defender than Garland this year? Cause despite both playing with the same defenders in the same scheme, the advanced metrics don't rate them both the same:

Mitchell: +1.2 defensive DARKO, +1.5 DEF EPM
Garland: -0.3 defensive DARKO, -0.5 DEF EPM

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm


No metric on it's own is the be all, end all, but there are some metrics that have fewer weird results and if you look at a few of them to triangulate things, the consensus tends to be informative...not always and context is always needed to understand data, but there is some interesting info out there.

I like DARKO, EPM, and looking at WOWY (with or without you) lineup numbers, but I'm still pretty new to actually paying attention to this stuff.

Actually the disparity between Garland and Mitchell in terms of simple on/off defensive rating is much huger than those stats would indicate. So, they're actually cutting Garland some slack.

Anyway, I don't see any problem statistically crediting Franz. His raw numbers and lineup numbers look quite good. They also support what I've seen in the games I've watched, and that's that Jonathan Isaac's is otherworldly (the Magic have a DRtg of 106.2 when Isaac's on the floor and 114.4 when he's off).

Interestingly Dean Wade is the player who sticks out on the Cavs in terms of these raw stats, as the Cavs have a DRtg of 106.5 when he's on the floor, and 117.1 when he's off. Wade+Allen without Niang has been very tough defensively even with Garland instead of Mitchell.

That the Mobley-Allen lineups have not been able to defend at a similar level this season has been puzzling. I mean why even pair the two if the defense isn't incredible?

Alas, Dean may miss the entire series and/or may not even break the rotation if/when he does return.

The Cavs love what Max Strus brings, but the Core-4 plus Strus has not been that good. There are lineups from previous seasons the Cavs could revisit that they haven't because of injuries or just how their bench rotations work, but just last year Garland-Mitchell-LeVert-E.Mobley-Allen was a much better lineup and they wouldn't need Wade.

The lineup #s with Strus & the core may not be great, but the metrics love him this year. So maybe it's just a question of more chemistry / synergy with the core 4 that the barrage of injuries have prevented from being established?

And that sucks about Wade, EPM & DARKO have a lot of love for him too.

[JonFromVA]

Simple NetRtg is dependent on your team-mates, but advanced metrics like EPM & DARKO do a decent job of accounting for variables like that. So just because a player plays with good defenders on a good defense, doesn't ensure them good advanced metrics if they themselves aren't a good defender.

As an example: Would you agree that Mitchell has been a notably better defender than Garland this year? Cause despite both playing with the same defenders in the same scheme, the advanced metrics don't rate them both the same:

Mitchell: +1.2 defensive DARKO, +1.5 DEF EPM
Garland: -0.3 defensive DARKO, -0.5 DEF EPM

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm


No metric on it's own is the be all, end all, but there are some metrics that have fewer weird results and if you look at a few of them to triangulate things, the consensus tends to be informative...not always and context is always needed to understand data, but there is some interesting info out there.

I like DARKO, EPM, and looking at WOWY (with or without you) lineup numbers, but I'm still pretty new to actually paying attention to this stuff.

Actually the disparity between Garland and Mitchell in terms of simple on/off defensive rating is much huger than those stats would indicate. So, they're actually cutting Garland some slack.

Anyway, I don't see any problem statistically crediting Franz. His raw numbers and lineup numbers look quite good. They also support what I've seen in the games I've watched, and that's that Jonathan Isaac's is otherworldly (the Magic have a DRtg of 106.2 when Isaac's on the floor and 114.4 when he's off).

Interestingly Dean Wade is the player who sticks out on the Cavs in terms of these raw stats, as the Cavs have a DRtg of 106.5 when he's on the floor, and 117.1 when he's off. Wade+Allen without Niang has been very tough defensively even with Garland instead of Mitchell.

That the Mobley-Allen lineups have not been able to defend at a similar level this season has been puzzling. I mean why even pair the two if the defense isn't incredible?

Alas, Dean may miss the entire series and/or may not even break the rotation if/when he does return.

The Cavs love what Max Strus brings, but the Core-4 plus Strus has not been that good. There are lineups from previous seasons the Cavs could revisit that they haven't because of injuries or just how their bench rotations work, but just last year Garland-Mitchell-LeVert-E.Mobley-Allen was a much better lineup and they wouldn't need Wade.

The lineup #s with Strus & the core may not be great, but the metrics love him this year. So maybe it's just a question of more chemistry / synergy with the core 4 that the barrage of injuries have prevented from being established?

And that sucks about Wade, EPM & DARKO have a lot of love for him too.

Indeed, the numbers suggest Strus would be more valuable if the the Cavs changed their starting lineup or brought him off the bench.

But the lineup numbers are pretty messy for the Cavs because of the injuries. Just for example, Garland lost a lot of weight and conditioning when he had to suck food out of a straw. It's not surprising he had less energy when he returned and the numbers for the units he's been part of aren't going to return to normal until he returns to normal. How do you compensate for that? Put him in units where they can focus on outscoring opponents? Or add more defense to help cover for him on that end of the floor? Reduce the play-making burden on him? Bickerstaff didn't seem to try anything like that.

[azcatz11]

Magic in 6.

Possibly 5. After what I saw last year from the Cavs - I think the Magic actually make light work of them especially with Paolo doing what he wants in the paint.

[Residual-Heat]

I think the Cavs learned from their experience from the Knicks and added shooters in the offseason. I think if they faced the Knicks this year, they wouldve faired better than they did last season.

I would guess Cavs in 5. G1 cavs win, G2 Cavs win, G3 Magic win, G4 Cavs win, game 5 Cavs win.

[toooskies]

Simple NetRtg is dependent on your team-mates, but advanced metrics like EPM & DARKO do a decent job of accounting for variables like that. So just because a player plays with good defenders on a good defense, doesn't ensure them good advanced metrics if they themselves aren't a good defender.

As an example: Would you agree that Mitchell has been a notably better defender than Garland this year? Cause despite both playing with the same defenders in the same scheme, the advanced metrics don't rate them both the same:

Mitchell: +1.2 defensive DARKO, +1.5 DEF EPM
Garland: -0.3 defensive DARKO, -0.5 DEF EPM

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm


No metric on it's own is the be all, end all, but there are some metrics that have fewer weird results and if you look at a few of them to triangulate things, the consensus tends to be informative...not always and context is always needed to understand data, but there is some interesting info out there.

I like DARKO, EPM, and looking at WOWY (with or without you) lineup numbers, but I'm still pretty new to actually paying attention to this stuff.

Actually the disparity between Garland and Mitchell in terms of simple on/off defensive rating is much huger than those stats would indicate. So, they're actually cutting Garland some slack.

Anyway, I don't see any problem statistically crediting Franz. His raw numbers and lineup numbers look quite good. They also support what I've seen in the games I've watched, and that's that Jonathan Isaac's is otherworldly (the Magic have a DRtg of 106.2 when Isaac's on the floor and 114.4 when he's off).

Interestingly Dean Wade is the player who sticks out on the Cavs in terms of these raw stats, as the Cavs have a DRtg of 106.5 when he's on the floor, and 117.1 when he's off. Wade+Allen without Niang has been very tough defensively even with Garland instead of Mitchell.

That the Mobley-Allen lineups have not been able to defend at a similar level this season has been puzzling. I mean why even pair the two if the defense isn't incredible?

Alas, Dean may miss the entire series and/or may not even break the rotation if/when he does return.

The Cavs love what Max Strus brings, but the Core-4 plus Strus has not been that good. There are lineups from previous seasons the Cavs could revisit that they haven't because of injuries or just how their bench rotations work, but just last year Garland-Mitchell-LeVert-E.Mobley-Allen was a much better lineup and they wouldn't need Wade.

The lineup #s with Strus & the core may not be great, but the metrics love him this year. So maybe it's just a question of more chemistry / synergy with the core 4 that the barrage of injuries have prevented from being established?

And that sucks about Wade, EPM & DARKO have a lot of love for him too.

All the lineup data from this year is contaminated by the injuries the Cavs have had and how defined the sections of the Cavs' season has been. The Cavs had a hard schedule to start and end the year, with an easier schedule in the middle. The guys who missed the middle of the year effectively played a harder schedule difficulty than guys who played in the middle of the year.

For instance, the starting 5 mostly played their games against tougher competition, and often when not all of the players were at full strength (i.e. minutes restriction Garland/Mobley, injured knee Mitchell). Wade got most of his minutes as a starter in a defense-first lineup against easy competition while Mitchell was playing at an MVP level, leading to amazing advanced stats. So on and so forth.

I know some RAPM-based tools (I think EPM?) might have some adjustments for difficulty of the opponent on the court to smooth things out, but even those take large sample sizes to stabilize and no group of this year's Cavs players have a large sample size.

[JujitsuFlip]

Actually the disparity between Garland and Mitchell in terms of simple on/off defensive rating is much huger than those stats would indicate. So, they're actually cutting Garland some slack.

Anyway, I don't see any problem statistically crediting Franz. His raw numbers and lineup numbers look quite good. They also support what I've seen in the games I've watched, and that's that Jonathan Isaac's is otherworldly (the Magic have a DRtg of 106.2 when Isaac's on the floor and 114.4 when he's off).

Interestingly Dean Wade is the player who sticks out on the Cavs in terms of these raw stats, as the Cavs have a DRtg of 106.5 when he's on the floor, and 117.1 when he's off. Wade+Allen without Niang has been very tough defensively even with Garland instead of Mitchell.

That the Mobley-Allen lineups have not been able to defend at a similar level this season has been puzzling. I mean why even pair the two if the defense isn't incredible?

Alas, Dean may miss the entire series and/or may not even break the rotation if/when he does return.

The Cavs love what Max Strus brings, but the Core-4 plus Strus has not been that good. There are lineups from previous seasons the Cavs could revisit that they haven't because of injuries or just how their bench rotations work, but just last year Garland-Mitchell-LeVert-E.Mobley-Allen was a much better lineup and they wouldn't need Wade.

The lineup #s with Strus & the core may not be great, but the metrics love him this year. So maybe it's just a question of more chemistry / synergy with the core 4 that the barrage of injuries have prevented from being established?

And that sucks about Wade, EPM & DARKO have a lot of love for him too.

All the lineup data from this year is contaminated by the injuries the Cavs have had and how defined the sections of the Cavs' season has been. The Cavs had a hard schedule to start and end the year, with an easier schedule in the middle. The guys who missed the middle of the year effectively played a harder schedule difficulty than guys who played in the middle of the year.

For instance, the starting 5 mostly played their games against tougher competition, and often when not all of the players were at full strength (i.e. minutes restriction Garland/Mobley, injured knee Mitchell). Wade got most of his minutes as a starter in a defense-first lineup against easy competition while Mitchell was playing at an MVP level, leading to amazing advanced stats. So on and so forth.

I know some RAPM-based tools (I think EPM?) might have some adjustments for difficulty of the opponent on the court to smooth things out, but even those take large sample sizes to stabilize and no group of this year's Cavs players have a large sample size.

Such a great point. A vast majority of Cavs fans never came around to Strus but I've liked him since the signing. I wish he was a little taller but there wasn't a vast market to fill the void at SF this past summer.