2024 NBA Playoffs - East 1st Round: #4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 Orlando Magic (CLE leads 3-2)

[JonFromVA]

The lineup #s with Strus & the core may not be great, but the metrics love him this year. So maybe it's just a question of more chemistry / synergy with the core 4 that the barrage of injuries have prevented from being established?

And that sucks about Wade, EPM & DARKO have a lot of love for him too.

All the lineup data from this year is contaminated by the injuries the Cavs have had and how defined the sections of the Cavs' season has been. The Cavs had a hard schedule to start and end the year, with an easier schedule in the middle. The guys who missed the middle of the year effectively played a harder schedule difficulty than guys who played in the middle of the year.

For instance, the starting 5 mostly played their games against tougher competition, and often when not all of the players were at full strength (i.e. minutes restriction Garland/Mobley, injured knee Mitchell). Wade got most of his minutes as a starter in a defense-first lineup against easy competition while Mitchell was playing at an MVP level, leading to amazing advanced stats. So on and so forth.

I know some RAPM-based tools (I think EPM?) might have some adjustments for difficulty of the opponent on the court to smooth things out, but even those take large sample sizes to stabilize and no group of this year's Cavs players have a large sample size.

Such a great point. A vast majority of Cavs fans never came around to Strus but I've liked him since the signing. I wish he was a little taller but there wasn't a vast market to fill the void at SF this past summer.

I haven't noticed fans not coming around on Strus, I mean literally, what's not to like about the guy other than that he doesn't shoot 100% from 3pt?

But if anyone wants to show that the Cavs starting lineup is something special or even better than other past options, by all means go find the data, otherwise we're living in the realm of hope.

Go count it up for yourself, but it looks like the starting group was -2 in a 9pt win in their "must win game" .vs. the Pacers - and yet Max somehow ended up +17.

The lineup data is certainly messy, but this keeps happening.

[jasonxxx102]

The Cavs starting 5 is not very good, the offense is below average.

In 765 possessions so far this year for Garland/Mitchell/Strus/Mobley/Allen they are +2.3 with a 114 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating.

Last year the starting 5 of Garland/Mitchell/Okoro/Mobley/Allen was MUCH better with a +7.8 in 800 possessions.

[JujitsuFlip]

The Cavs starting 5 is not very good, the offense is below average.

In 765 possessions so far this year for Garland/Mitchell/Strus/Mobley/Allen they are +2.3 with a 114 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating.

Last year the starting 5 of Garland/Mitchell/Okoro/Mobley/Allen was MUCH better with a +7.8 in 800 possessions.

Well, that is why i like the context cgf added. Simply looking at numbers without strength of schedule accounted for and also not accounting for players being hobbled, seems disingenuous.

Okoro is never gonna have the volume from deep to justify him starting next to Mobley and Allen.

[toooskies]

The Cavs starting 5 is not very good, the offense is below average.

In 765 possessions so far this year for Garland/Mitchell/Strus/Mobley/Allen they are +2.3 with a 114 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating.

Last year the starting 5 of Garland/Mitchell/Okoro/Mobley/Allen was MUCH better with a +7.8 in 800 possessions.

Most of this is probably explained by Garland having a year from hell. Hamstring, hand, jaw injuries that pretty much kept him from being anywhere close to 100% all season even when he's played. He has been gradually playing better, though.

The rest of the difference probably explained by Mitchell's knee bothering him from the All-Star Break until the very end of the season. But after being clearly limited in games where the Cavs got blown out by the Nuggets, Suns, and Lakers, Mitchell looked more like his usual self against the Grizzlies and Pacers.

At no point have the Cavs' starters played more than 7 consecutive games and at no point could you say the team was at full strength. You could point to individual games (i.e. against the Hawks in the last IST qualifier game, or the Pacers game at the end of the season) where we looked somewhat complete and running at full force?

I would not at all consider the Cavs' regular season lineup data to be indicative of how good they would be at full strength.

[basketballRob]

The Magic's starting lineup has a 12.5 net rating.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Iwasawitness]

Magic in 6.

Possibly 5. After what I saw last year from the Cavs - I think the Magic actually make light work of them especially with Paolo doing what he wants in the paint.

Magic could very well win in six, or even five, but your reasoning really made my head hurt. Basing things on his last year went against a very different team makes very little sense.

[JonFromVA]

The Cavs starting 5 is not very good, the offense is below average.

In 765 possessions so far this year for Garland/Mitchell/Strus/Mobley/Allen they are +2.3 with a 114 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating.

Last year the starting 5 of Garland/Mitchell/Okoro/Mobley/Allen was MUCH better with a +7.8 in 800 possessions.

Most of this is probably explained by Garland having a year from hell. Hamstring, hand, jaw injuries that pretty much kept him from being anywhere close to 100% all season even when he's played. He has been gradually playing better, though.

The rest of the difference probably explained by Mitchell's knee bothering him from the All-Star Break until the very end of the season. But after being clearly limited in games where the Cavs got blown out by the Nuggets, Suns, and Lakers, Mitchell looked more like his usual self against the Grizzlies and Pacers.

At no point have the Cavs' starters played more than 7 consecutive games and at no point could you say the team was at full strength. You could point to individual games (i.e. against the Hawks in the last IST qualifier game, or the Pacers game at the end of the season) where we looked somewhat complete and running at full force?

I would not at all consider the Cavs' regular season lineup data to be indicative of how good they would be at full strength.

The problem is time is up, the Cavs need to prepare and put their best lineups on the floor last month, last week - not game 2 after losing game 1. Crossing our fingers and hoping that something finally clicks is wishcasting.

I've pointed out in the past that Garland has been working better with Mobley, and Mitchell with Allen for whatever reason. When these things keep playing out, you'd think the coach would at least ride it until it lets him down; but Bickerstaff seems impervious or oblivious to what's happening. He sure isn't shaking up his starting unit even as an experiment as the data continues to pile up that it's likely not his best option.

Did you know Orlando's starting 5 has played fewer minutes together this season than the Cavs starting 5?

[JonFromVA]

Magic in 6.

Possibly 5. After what I saw last year from the Cavs - I think the Magic actually make light work of them especially with Paolo doing what he wants in the paint.

Magic could very well win in six, or even five, but your reasoning really made my head hurt. Basing things on his last year went against a very different team makes very little sense.

The series will be a toughness check for the Cavs, no doubt about that. The Magic are young and rebound well too.

The past doesn't have to predict the future, but what's changed?

We can point to the additions of Tristan Thompson and Marcus Morris, but they may not even be in the rotation. We can point how how various players were dealing with injuries last season, but it's much the same this season too.

[JujitsuFlip]

Wade, TJ, and CPJ out for the Cavs for game 1.

Magic look to have a clean injury report.

[JujitsuFlip]

jb had a 7 man rotation last year in game 1, 7 guys saw 18+ minutes, so we'll see what he comes out with tomorrow.

I assume it will be Garland, Mitchell, Strus, Mobley, Mitchell, LeVert, Okoro, and Niang. Then potetinally spot minutes for Merrill and depending on foul trouble one of TT or Morris.

[Iwasawitness]

Magic in 6.

Possibly 5. After what I saw last year from the Cavs - I think the Magic actually make light work of them especially with Paolo doing what he wants in the paint.

Magic could very well win in six, or even five, but your reasoning really made my head hurt. Basing things on his last year went against a very different team makes very little sense.

The series will be a toughness check for the Cavs, no doubt about that. The Magic are young and rebound well too.

The past doesn't have to predict the future, but what's changed?

We can point to the additions of Tristan Thompson and Marcus Morris, but they may not even be in the rotation. We can point how how various players were dealing with injuries last season, but it's much the same this season too.

The Magic don't have the big man rotation that NY had nor do they have the playoff experience. They also aren't as good of a rebounding team as that NY team was.

We have to keep in mind the other differences in this team compared to last season too. With additional shooting and learning experiences from last season, you can't just look at what happened last season and conclude "yeah, that'll definitely happen this year".

Also, I can absolutely see Morris getting rotation minutes if Dean Wade isn't able to go. Thompson we'll have to wait and see.

[GeorgeSears]

Tough series to call. The Magic were my sleeper team before the season, but I think they'll have problems scoring. Cavs in 7.

[Residual-Heat]

Based on what im seeing on social media, youtube, etc.. seems like not many people outside of Magic and Cavs fans want to watch this series.

I dont really care what they do i just find it funny that NBA fans always complain about the league being soft and no one playing defense, but they dont want to think about watching two great defensive teams match-up. I guess people just like to complain..

I hope this ends up being the most entertaining 1st round series this play offs.

[Last Guardian]

Based on what im seeing on social media, youtube, etc.. seems like not many people outside of Magic and Cavs fans want to watch this series.

I dont really care what they do i just find it funny that NBA fans always complain about the league being soft and no one playing defense, but they dont want to think about watching two great defensive teams match-up. I guess people just like to complain..

I hope this ends up being the most entertaining 1st round series this play offs.

Because this is going to be an ugly, defensive series. I don't expect a lot of people to want to watch this. First to 90 wins.

[Residual-Heat]

Based on what im seeing on social media, youtube, etc.. seems like not many people outside of Magic and Cavs fans want to watch this series.

I dont really care what they do i just find it funny that NBA fans always complain about the league being soft and no one playing defense, but they dont want to think about watching two great defensive teams match-up. I guess people just like to complain..

I hope this ends up being the most entertaining 1st round series this play offs.

Because this is going to be an ugly, defensive series. I don't expect a lot of people to want to watch this. First to 90 wins.

i get it, and i get that there are much better series to watch. I dont expect people to watch every game of the series, but it seems people dont care at all about watching even one game of this series. Maybe if it goes to game 7 (i dont think it will), people would want to watch that game.

[JonFromVA]

Magic could very well win in six, or even five, but your reasoning really made my head hurt. Basing things on his last year went against a very different team makes very little sense.

The series will be a toughness check for the Cavs, no doubt about that. The Magic are young and rebound well too.

The past doesn't have to predict the future, but what's changed?

We can point to the additions of Tristan Thompson and Marcus Morris, but they may not even be in the rotation. We can point how how various players were dealing with injuries last season, but it's much the same this season too.

The Magic don't have the big man rotation that NY had nor do they have the playoff experience. They also aren't as good of a rebounding team as that NY team was.

We have to keep in mind the other differences in this team compared to last season too. With additional shooting and learning experiences from last season, you can't just look at what happened last season and conclude "yeah, that'll definitely happen this year".

Also, I can absolutely see Morris getting rotation minutes if Dean Wade isn't able to go. Thompson we'll have to wait and see.

I didn't say the Magic were the Knicks, but they can challenge the Cavs in similar ways and either the Cavs step up or they don't. They thing is they should have established everything in advance such that we can only wonder what went wrong if they couldn't demonstrate the improvement in the playoffs, except they've demonstrated very little other than they can shoot better.

But will those shooters like Niang and Merrill get minutes? Presumably George will, but he better make his shots or hold his own on D somehow.

Question marks... not answers.

[JonFromVA]

Based on what im seeing on social media, youtube, etc.. seems like not many people outside of Magic and Cavs fans want to watch this series.

I dont really care what they do i just find it funny that NBA fans always complain about the league being soft and no one playing defense, but they dont want to think about watching two great defensive teams match-up. I guess people just like to complain..

I hope this ends up being the most entertaining 1st round series this play offs.

Should we care?

It's a 4v5 matchup, the definition of playoff mediocrity ... at best a stepping stone to the future. Even if one of the teams plays really well it will just be seen as a condemnation of the other since there's no Cleveland or Orlando version of SAS to bloviate on TV about wine & gold or black & blue skies...

[Special_Puppy]

Going to say that the Cavs are 2-1 favorites and that the modal outcome is Cavs in 5

[AddiFB]

Based on what im seeing on social media, youtube, etc.. seems like not many people outside of Magic and Cavs fans want to watch this series.

I dont really care what they do i just find it funny that NBA fans always complain about the league being soft and no one playing defense, but they dont want to think about watching two great defensive teams match-up. I guess people just like to complain..

I hope this ends up being the most entertaining 1st round series this play offs.

I feel like this series is like a flashback to the 90's where there was a slower pace with less scoring, and more defense and bodies flying around. Big, gritty teams.

The Magic at least seem to play a bit like the slower defense first 90's or early 2000's team but can, when the it all clicks, defend and run like mountain lions. They'll have long stretches of difficulty finding the basket, but they'll also have long stretches of denying the opponent to find theirs.

They shoot less 3s and make them at a rather low clip. It's their achilles heel as it causes the paint to clog and closes passing lanes. They'll have to work the paint for buckets near the rim and Paolo and Franz love to play bullyball, same for Moe, Isaac and Suggs.

I'm excited to see how they react to the playoffs ball and atmosphere, being such a young team. I don't expect them to win the series, but I know (hope) they'll make a name for themselves as a tough, gritty defensive team that can score in bulks off of suffocating defense.

They have two tall playmaking wings that are the key to their future in Paolo and Franz, a collection of players that could potentially be a series pivots in Suggs, Isaac and Moe and a pretty large group of good to great role players who bring either defense or offense, even both. Cole, Fultz, Carter Jr., Harris and Ingles.

A few of these guys can be pests on the court and annoy not only players, but an entire fanbase (looking at you, Jalen and Moe). Then they also have Joe Ingles who is.. Joe Ingles.

Deep bench in Anthony Black who I don't expect to play much, but he can bring defense and length, plus some offense. Goga Bitadze is no slouch and brings a different paint presense than JI or WCJ. A guy who only-shoots-catch-and-shoot threes in Houstan and they also have Jett Howard who probably won't sniff the court as he made a world record of D-League assignments and callups this season and hardly saw thr floor. He's getting better, but he's not ready. These guys won't play much unless there's someone in foul trouble or injured.

All that said, I'm excited we're back in the Playoffs.

[Iwasawitness]

The series will be a toughness check for the Cavs, no doubt about that. The Magic are young and rebound well too.

The past doesn't have to predict the future, but what's changed?

We can point to the additions of Tristan Thompson and Marcus Morris, but they may not even be in the rotation. We can point how how various players were dealing with injuries last season, but it's much the same this season too.

The Magic don't have the big man rotation that NY had nor do they have the playoff experience. They also aren't as good of a rebounding team as that NY team was.

We have to keep in mind the other differences in this team compared to last season too. With additional shooting and learning experiences from last season, you can't just look at what happened last season and conclude "yeah, that'll definitely happen this year".

Also, I can absolutely see Morris getting rotation minutes if Dean Wade isn't able to go. Thompson we'll have to wait and see.

I didn't say the Magic were the Knicks, but they can challenge the Cavs in similar ways and either the Cavs step up or they don't. They thing is they should have established everything in advance such that we can only wonder what went wrong if they couldn't demonstrate the improvement in the playoffs, except they've demonstrated very little other than they can shoot better.

But will those shooters like Niang and Merrill get minutes? Presumably George will, but he better make his shots or hold his own on D somehow.

Question marks... not answers.

Merrill I can see getting minutes, but only if Wade doesn’t return from injury, otherwise he’d be the one getting playing time.

Speaking of injuries, is there any update on Merrill?