Ambrose wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:Klomp wrote:The bolded tells me all I needed to know.
I don't really love the idea of Gobert being assigned to anyone though. When he's in the paint, teams can't score in the paint. If he's on Durant, he's on the wing and even if we imagine him doing a good job on Durant, I'm worried about what's happening on the rest of the court.
I'm down with something unorthodox, I'd just need to see it before I believe that one.
Ambrose, going 5-out against Gobert hasn't worked for teams all season. He does great out there. We don't want him out of the paint, but he's good at shutting down the perimeter. There's a whole season of tape on it now. When Gobert steps out, we have an army of 6'10"+ guys who can protect the rim in a pinch (exactly what Utah was lacking to make them vulnerable). What Phoenix wants to do is invert our paint protection. They want one of our bigs guarding a shooter, and the other on Nurkic who they use as a screen setter. You can't let Nurk set a screen for Booker (or Beal or Allen) and not contest Booker on the other side. That's an auto bucket.
It's going to be a series where Phoenix tries to force Minnesota to guard from positions of disadvantage, and Minnesota will need to get creative to hold their schemes. It will be like a tower defense video game.
There's a difference between going 5-out, and going 5-out guarding Kevin Durant. You basically say as much by saying they want bigs on shooters. I think you can admit that's a terrible idea, especially against a team that's already had your number this season.
They want our bigs on shooters because that means they aren't in the paint. It's about those bigs being bad against shooters, it's about making the rim harder to defend. Phoenix knows it can get decent midrange shots whenever it wants. All season they wrestled with strategies (and player tendencies) to find ways to get more points at the rim and from 3. They had a lot of success doing that against us specifically, in the regular season.
It will be interesting to see what the first adjustments are. Phoenix scored well in bursts against our base defense by shooting really well from 3 and opening up the paint (rather than bombard us in the midrange where our defense wants you to go). I think there's no way the Wolves play that base, knowing already that it's vulnerable against Phoenix.
People are rightfully pointing out that KD is more stationary at this stage in his career. When he does drive, it's almost always to get to his pullup game. We defended him with Karl Anthony-Towns most games, and I suspect that will be what we start off. I don't personally like the idea of Gobert on Durant, because you don't want to leave Durant open and we want Gobert to be able to roam as much as possible. The Suns make it really hard to stash someone on Nurkic because he's a full-time screener. Whoever guards Nurkic has to be ready to guard anyone he screens for. In a lot of our matchups, KD was the decoy, while Booker/Beal/Grayson got more primary action run for them. It's an interesting puzzle to figure out.
