2024 NBA Playoffs - West 1st Round: #3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #6 Phoenix Suns (MIN SWEEPS 4-0)

[cupcakesnake]

I got the Suns winning it. They were looking like a play-in team with 10 games to go and the toughest schedule in the NBA ahead no easy games and they went 7-3, beating these Pelicans twice. They're coming in a little under the radar.

Not to mention the Suns are a lot more battle tested in the playoffs. Outside of Conley and Gobert who has made it to the second round none of them have won a playoff series.

Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris both been to WCF.

I hate this matchup. It's the one matchup I least wanted for the Wolves. Suns have the guys who thrive in the midrange where we're most weak. They can go small and have shooters all over the floor. Our offense needs to show up, stop with the sloppy play and giving the Suns easy buckets off turnovers. Force their guys to consistently defend and work.

I'm not as worried about the Wolves defense. Suns offense has an advantage against our base, but in the playoffs we'll be custom making stuff to crowd the nail and contest more 3s. The Suns really only score against us when they're giving us tons and tons of threes. They shot 55% from 3 in two of those matchups. We're not typically a team that struggles to defend the 3 (7th in defensive 3-pt% and 6th in defensive 3-pt rate). It's not like we're a team that can only defend the rim. Our base funnels people towards the midrange area, which is not a good thing for the Suns. Expect to see a whole lot more Towns and Gobert around the nail and very little drop coverage.

I'm more worried about our offense, because the Suns weirdly defended us very well in every single game this year. We struggled with turnovers and passing. They're good at ignoring Gobert just the right amount to overload our passing lanes.

We have to find ways to matchup hunt a little, get Ant punishing all their guards, keep Towns spaced so the Suns can't pack the middle of the floor. Towns always wants to post, and he'll have good matchups, but our offense never works amazing with both bigs in the paint.

[nikster]

Wolves in 6. Size and Defense will make too big a difference over a series

I don't disagree that Wolves are the favorites, but are we no longer talking about Gobert's problems in the playoffs? Has that been solved at all?

I don't think Gobert has playoff problems. His perceived problems were a result of a heavily flawed Jazz team that had 2 main problems, 1) they had **** perimeter defense all over leaving them to rely on Gobert way too much defensively and 2) they had nobody who can attack the rim and put pressure on a defense with no rim protectors.

Gobert was fine last year. Suns have the big 3 that theoretically lets them play small, but it won't even as effective as it was against Utah. Also don't know Suns have enough depth to play too much without their bigs Nurkic/Eubanks and Okogie is another non shooter they can out Gibert on to let him roam the paint

[AbeVigodaLive]

The NBA playoffs are about matchups.

And according to the regular season... this is BY FAR the worst matchup for the Timberwolves in the entire league.

They lost by 18, 19 and 10 points. (and were down by 23 before a very late run with scrubs cut it to 10 points). The Timberwolves have not even been within 10 points in any of the games in the 2nd half. Heck, I don't even know if they've been within 10 points in the 2nd quarter for almost all three games. Small sample size or not... that's telling. At the very least, Phoenix is coming into the series extremely confident that they can beat Minnesota.

___________________________

As noted, the Wolves are an active bunch on defense. They have Gobert patrolling the rim very well. And they're long and willing defenders who are pretty good at getting out to three-point shooters. A couple of notes on that...

Phoenix has good to very good midrange shooters in Durant, Booker and Beal. Only 6 teams shot fewer three pointers this season. So they're more than willing to shoot those mid-range shots. When they do shoot threes... Phoenix was 5th in the league in percentage. Against the Timberwolves, they shot 49% on three pointers, with MANY of them wide open. How are they getting so wide open?

Durant is at the 4. Do you trust Towns to guard him? Reid? Fair enough. Put McDaniels on him. Or, Kyle Anderson. Or, even Edwards. So who does Towns/Reid guard? Booker? No. Beal? No. Yesterday it was Grayson Allen. The league's best three-point shooter this season. For what it's worth, Beal shot 88% on threes vs. Minnesota. (unsustainable). Grayson Allen hit 10 - 16. That might be close to sustainable if he's being defended by power forwards.

So Phoenix definitely has a matchup advantage on offense. What about defense? Can the Timberwolves overpower Durant at the 4?
- Maybe? But probably doubtful. With Gobert on the court, Towns is on the perimeter more. There are just fewer post-ups available. Meanwhile, Durant is nearly 7 feet tall and has the length to get in passing lanes and defend on the perimeter.

Even more telling, is that he's a superstar. A savvy superstar. He baited/flopped officials into two charging calls on Towns yesterday. Towns has led the league in offensive fouls for multiple years. Often, it's not even close. Some are egregious and out of control. Many are borderline. He simply doesn't get a favorable whistle. Might be all the flailing... but whatever it is... it's actually been a disadvantage when he thinks he can overpower smaller or thinner defenders. For example, the Clippers used to be very effective putting Nicolas Batum on Towns. Yesterday, the Suns used guards to defend Towns. It works. Towns will drive. The smaller guys will fall down. History tells us that the foul is going on Towns.

But who cares about Towns. Anthony Edwards is the Timberwolves star. Problem #1: Phoenix knows this and plays a tight shell concept against him to stop penetration. Problem #2: They play Ant physically. Like Towns, he has not figured out how to get a consistently favorable whistle. For Towns it's flailing. For Edwards, there's nothing subtle about his drives. There's yelling and screaming and clapping but no head jerks or falling to the ground after contact. Problem #3: Edwards is at his best when he decides to take over a game, opponent/defense be damned. Well, that's a lot harder with three guys standing in front of you the entire game. Phoenix's defense is inviting Edwards to do just that. Drunk game: Take a shot every time Edwards ignores a wide-open Towns or Reid behind the arc while he dribbles and dribbles and dribbles into a shot. Edwards' next ascension as a star is to (1) star in the playoffs for a series win, (2) learn how to set up teammates better.

Option 1 is more fun. And comes with more glory. Edwards is 22. Part of his mystique is unabashed confidence in himself. I think this series will be a lesson-learning experience for him.

This is just a bad bad matchup for Minnesota. The worst matchup.

[srhcan]

For whatever reason, we've played the Wolves extremely well all year. I think we have a decent shot at advancing. Had it been Denver or OKC, no chance whatsoever. So even if we advance, we're getting smoked by Denver. Conversely, I think the Wolves match up with Denver much better than us and I think the Nuggets would much rather face us.

Dont sell yourself short. I think Suns has the best roster to stop Denver in West.

[srhcan]

Denver lucked out that their 2 biggest threats are playing each other.

It's funny how Denver keeps lucking out in their playoff matchups...

they also beat both of these teams last year.

surely you cannot use last season as an example for this year's Suns team. The current Suns team is lot more different than last season one; they have 3 new starters.

[Wolveswin]

Either Towns or KD on the trade market after this series.

[OfficialRef]

Surprised so many people favored the Sons. They are still wildly inconsistent to be a real threat in this conference led by 3 jump shooting SGs. Minny is more proven this season and has been easily more impressive.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Surprised so many people favored the Sons. They are still wildly inconsistent to be a real threat in this conference led by 3 jump shooting SGs. Minny is more proven this season and has been easily more impressive.

Unfortunately for the Timberwolves... they're playing the Suns, and not any of the other 28 teams.

What's more important?

A 56 - 23 record vs. teams they won't be playing...
Or, never being within 10 points in the 2nd half (and barely even the 2nd quarter) in three blowout losses vs. the team they're matched up against in the playoffs.

Again, matchups matter in the NBA playoffs.

[OfficialRef]

The NBA playoffs are about matchups.

And according to the regular season... this is BY FAR the worst matchup for the Timberwolves in the entire league.

They lost by 18, 19 and 10 points. (and were down by 23 before a very late run with scrubs cut it to 10 points). The Timberwolves have not even been within 10 points in any of the games in the 2nd half. Heck, I don't even know if they've been within 10 points in the 2nd quarter for almost all three games. Small sample size or not... that's telling. At the very least, Phoenix is coming into the series extremely confident that they can beat Minnesota.

___________________________

As noted, the Wolves are an active bunch on defense. They have Gobert patrolling the rim very well. And they're long and willing defenders who are pretty good at getting out to three-point shooters. A couple of notes on that...

Phoenix has good to very good midrange shooters in Durant, Booker and Beal. Only 6 teams shot fewer three pointers this season. So they're more than willing to shoot those mid-range shots. When they do shoot threes... Phoenix was 5th in the league in percentage. Against the Timberwolves, they shot 49% on three pointers, with MANY of them wide open. How are they getting so wide open?

Durant is at the 4. Do you trust Towns to guard him? Reid? Fair enough. Put McDaniels on him. Or, Kyle Anderson. Or, even Edwards. So who does Towns/Reid guard? Booker? No. Beal? No. Yesterday it was Grayson Allen. The league's best three-point shooter this season. For what it's worth, Beal shot 88% on threes vs. Minnesota. (unsustainable). Grayson Allen hit 10 - 16. That might be close to sustainable if he's being defended by power forwards.

So Phoenix definitely has a matchup advantage on offense. What about defense? Can the Timberwolves overpower Durant at the 4?
- Maybe? But probably doubtful. With Gobert on the court, Towns is on the perimeter more. There are just fewer post-ups available. Meanwhile, Durant is nearly 7 feet tall and has the length to get in passing lanes and defend on the perimeter.

Even more telling, is that he's a superstar. A savvy superstar. He baited/flopped officials into two charging calls on Towns yesterday. Towns has led the league in offensive fouls for multiple years. Often, it's not even close. Some are egregious and out of control. Many are borderline. He simply doesn't get a favorable whistle. Might be all the flailing... but whatever it is... it's actually been a disadvantage when he thinks he can overpower smaller or thinner defenders. For example, the Clippers used to be very effective putting Nicolas Batum on Towns. Yesterday, the Suns used guards to defend Towns. It works. Towns will drive. The smaller guys will fall down. History tells us that the foul is going on Towns.

But who cares about Towns. Anthony Edwards is the Timberwolves star. Problem #1: Phoenix knows this and plays a tight shell concept against him to stop penetration. Problem #2: They play Ant physically. Like Towns, he has not figured out how to get a consistently favorable whistle. For Towns it's flailing. For Edwards, there's nothing subtle about his drives. There's yelling and screaming and clapping but no head jerks or falling to the ground after contact. Problem #3: Edwards is at his best when he decides to take over a game, opponent/defense be damned. Well, that's a lot harder with three guys standing in front of you the entire game. Phoenix's defense is inviting Edwards to do just that. Drunk game: Take a shot every time Edwards ignores a wide-open Towns or Reid behind the arc while he dribbles and dribbles and dribbles into a shot. Edwards' next ascension as a star is to (1) star in the playoffs for a series win, (2) learn how to set up teammates better.

Option 1 is more fun. And comes with more glory. Edwards is 22. Part of his mystique is unabashed confidence in himself. I think this series will be a lesson-learning experience for him.

This is just a bad bad matchup for Minnesota. The worst matchup.

They should stick Towns on Durant- Durant has no blow-by ability anymore and gets the bulk of his offense on jump shots. Towns could just put a hand-up on his shots and hope Durant misses.

They should use mcdaniels on Booker as hes their most dynamic player on offense and puts real pressure. Let Book resort of tough mid-ranges and 3 pointers.

Then Edwards on Beal as hes strong enough and quick enough to bother Beal. Beal will play worse as the lights get brighter and Ant will definitely make him work for his points and get in his head a bit.

[facothomas22]

The Suns at their best are one of the best teams in the NBA. Kevin Durant/Devin Booker are unstoppable duo, Bradley Beal is a solid 3rd option,along with Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic proven to be bigger additions to the team than expected. With that said, the Suns can't be trusted right now. One game, they look amazing. Another game, they look mediocre. The Suns on paper should win this series, but I trust the Timberwolves more as of now simply because they been more consistent. I expect Rudy Gobert to be impact in the series. Anthony Edwards will step up his game as usual in the playoffs, Jaden McDaniels can slow down Kevin Durant and the Timberwolves depth overall isn't bad

[IamBBAnalysis]

The NBA playoffs are about matchups.

And according to the regular season... this is BY FAR the worst matchup for the Timberwolves in the entire league.

They lost by 18, 19 and 10 points. (and were down by 23 before a very late run with scrubs cut it to 10 points). The Timberwolves have not even been within 10 points in any of the games in the 2nd half. Heck, I don't even know if they've been within 10 points in the 2nd quarter for almost all three games. Small sample size or not... that's telling. At the very least, Phoenix is coming into the series extremely confident that they can beat Minnesota.

___________________________

As noted, the Wolves are an active bunch on defense. They have Gobert patrolling the rim very well. And they're long and willing defenders who are pretty good at getting out to three-point shooters. A couple of notes on that...

Phoenix has good to very good midrange shooters in Durant, Booker and Beal. Only 6 teams shot fewer three pointers this season. So they're more than willing to shoot those mid-range shots. When they do shoot threes... Phoenix was 5th in the league in percentage. Against the Timberwolves, they shot 49% on three pointers, with MANY of them wide open. How are they getting so wide open?

Durant is at the 4. Do you trust Towns to guard him? Reid? Fair enough. Put McDaniels on him. Or, Kyle Anderson. Or, even Edwards. So who does Towns/Reid guard? Booker? No. Beal? No. Yesterday it was Grayson Allen. The league's best three-point shooter this season. For what it's worth, Beal shot 88% on threes vs. Minnesota. (unsustainable). Grayson Allen hit 10 - 16. That might be close to sustainable if he's being defended by power forwards.

So Phoenix definitely has a matchup advantage on offense. What about defense? Can the Timberwolves overpower Durant at the 4?
- Maybe? But probably doubtful. With Gobert on the court, Towns is on the perimeter more. There are just fewer post-ups available. Meanwhile, Durant is nearly 7 feet tall and has the length to get in passing lanes and defend on the perimeter.

Even more telling, is that he's a superstar. A savvy superstar. He baited/flopped officials into two charging calls on Towns yesterday. Towns has led the league in offensive fouls for multiple years. Often, it's not even close. Some are egregious and out of control. Many are borderline. He simply doesn't get a favorable whistle. Might be all the flailing... but whatever it is... it's actually been a disadvantage when he thinks he can overpower smaller or thinner defenders. For example, the Clippers used to be very effective putting Nicolas Batum on Towns. Yesterday, the Suns used guards to defend Towns. It works. Towns will drive. The smaller guys will fall down. History tells us that the foul is going on Towns.

But who cares about Towns. Anthony Edwards is the Timberwolves star. Problem #1: Phoenix knows this and plays a tight shell concept against him to stop penetration. Problem #2: They play Ant physically. Like Towns, he has not figured out how to get a consistently favorable whistle. For Towns it's flailing. For Edwards, there's nothing subtle about his drives. There's yelling and screaming and clapping but no head jerks or falling to the ground after contact. Problem #3: Edwards is at his best when he decides to take over a game, opponent/defense be damned. Well, that's a lot harder with three guys standing in front of you the entire game. Phoenix's defense is inviting Edwards to do just that. Drunk game: Take a shot every time Edwards ignores a wide-open Towns or Reid behind the arc while he dribbles and dribbles and dribbles into a shot. Edwards' next ascension as a star is to (1) star in the playoffs for a series win, (2) learn how to set up teammates better.

Option 1 is more fun. And comes with more glory. Edwards is 22. Part of his mystique is unabashed confidence in himself. I think this series will be a lesson-learning experience for him.

This is just a bad bad matchup for Minnesota. The worst matchup.

They should stick Towns on Durant- Durant has no blow-by ability anymore and gets the bulk of his offense on jump shots. Towns could just put a hand-up on his shots and hope Durant misses.

They should use mcdaniels on Booker as hes their most dynamic player on offense and puts real pressure. Let Book resort of tough mid-ranges and 3 pointers.

Then Edwards on Beal as hes strong enough and quick enough to bother Beal. Beal will play worse as the lights get brighter and Ant will definitely make him work for his points and get in his head a bit.

Towns on Durant is a BAD idea. Sure, Durant may not be blowing by quick players or those with great hands (handles are not great) but against a big Durant will get every shot he wants. And since Beal and Booker can already get most any shot they want that's not a good strategy.

[Biff]

For whatever reason, we've played the Wolves extremely well all year. I think we have a decent shot at advancing. Had it been Denver or OKC, no chance whatsoever. So even if we advance, we're getting smoked by Denver. Conversely, I think the Wolves match up with Denver much better than us and I think the Nuggets would much rather face us.

I hadn't really thought heavily about our previous matchups until watching yesterday.
The Suns defend the Timberwolves really well.
People are probably thinking this is an offense vs. defense thing, but it's the Suns defense that is the most important part of this series. If they can defend the Twolves like they have in the regular season, Minnesota is in massive trouble.

Yeah I just think your guys' defense is more designed to stop the current meta and we're kind of the anti meta, so your d isn't quite as effective against us. But we will see what adjustments are made in a 7 game series. Vogel is kind of a **** coach so that will play to your advantage.

[Phystic]

For whatever reason, we've played the Wolves extremely well all year. I think we have a decent shot at advancing. Had it been Denver or OKC, no chance whatsoever. So even if we advance, we're getting smoked by Denver. Conversely, I think the Wolves match up with Denver much better than us and I think the Nuggets would much rather face us.

Suns played Denver pretty well this year and last year also. I know it's crazy, but I'd rather play Denver than OKC

[spanishninja]

For whatever reason, we've played the Wolves extremely well all year. I think we have a decent shot at advancing. Had it been Denver or OKC, no chance whatsoever. So even if we advance, we're getting smoked by Denver. Conversely, I think the Wolves match up with Denver much better than us and I think the Nuggets would much rather face us.

Suns played Denver pretty well this year and last year also. I know it's crazy, but I'd rather play Denver than OKC

The Thunder have basically everything the Suns have, and then more.

Sent from my SM-S926U using RealGM mobile app

[Phystic]

Wolves in 6. Size and Defense will make too big a difference over a series

I don't disagree that Wolves are the favorites, but are we no longer talking about Gobert's problems in the playoffs? Has that been solved at all?

I don't think Gobert has playoff problems. His perceived problems were a result of a heavily flawed Jazz team that had 2 main problems, 1) they had **** perimeter defense all over leaving them to rely on Gobert way too much defensively and 2) they had nobody who can attack the rim and put pressure on a defense with no rim protectors.

Gobert was fine last year. Suns have the big 3 that theoretically lets them play small, but it won't even as effective as it was against Utah. Also don't know Suns have enough depth to play too much without their bigs Nurkic/Eubanks and Okogie is another non shooter they can out Gibert on to let him roam the paint

I think he may have been referring to the past playoffs where teams went 5-out/small ball to make Gobert have to guard on the perimeter

[Phystic]

For whatever reason, we've played the Wolves extremely well all year. I think we have a decent shot at advancing. Had it been Denver or OKC, no chance whatsoever. So even if we advance, we're getting smoked by Denver. Conversely, I think the Wolves match up with Denver much better than us and I think the Nuggets would much rather face us.

Suns played Denver pretty well this year and last year also. I know it's crazy, but I'd rather play Denver than OKC

The Thunder have basically everything the Suns have, and then more.

Sent from my SM-S926U using RealGM mobile app

OKC just has the youthful arrogance and energ. Don't mean that in a bad way, moreso when you're young you truly believe you can destroy everyone.

To their credit, they have proven it on the court. They handled us all year

[TimeisIllmatic]

Booker's going to go off. Suns in 6.

[Dennis Reynolds]

I can't be the only one who disagrees with the whole this is a bad matchup for Minnesota narrative.

I know things have not looked great for them in the regular season but the playoffs play very differently.

The Wolves have very good, athletic defenders to put on Durant, Booker and Beal and with Suns' bigs situation, this should be a series where Gobert doesn't have to worry about getting pulled to the perimeter and becoming a non factor. Going up against Suns' mediocre defense should help solve Minessota's offensive woes at least to some degree as well.

All this talk about the Suns' shell defense doesn't make sense to me either. It's not like much better defensive teams than the Suns are incapable of executing the same scheme on a (much) higher level so this sounds like an Anthony Edwards problem more so than a matchup problem if you ask me.

The real reason why the Wolves might lose this series is the same reason they aren't a considered a contender at the moment... they lack talent. I'm obviously talking about offensive talent because I have no idea where their points are coming from if Edwards doesn't step up his game in the playoffs once again and even if he does, he definitely isn't a real no.1 option on a contender at this point of his career nor does he have enough support at the moment as I've already said. I would really like to be proven wrong though.

[SkyBill40]

Wolves were clearly the better regular season team. While the Suns have been playing very well lately and are coming into the playoffs lately, it’s not like they’re a typical “playoff elevating team” like the Lakers or Warriors. KD has actually been much worse in the postseason than the regular season the last 2 years. So I can’t actually pick Phoenix. Wolves in 7.

The Wolves were clearly NOT the better team head to head. The Suns swept them in the season series by an aforementioned 15 point average. With Towns being brought back into the fold after a prolonged injury absence, it'll either be a hindrance or a help. The outcome remains to be seen to this point.

While the Suns haven't bee great over the course of the year, they finally seem to be pulling it together at just the right time. I'm taking Suns in 6.

[darmani]

The Wolves have very good, athletic defenders to put on Durant, Booker and Beal

Do they? They have Edwards and McDaniels and that's it. Even in the starting lineup they have small and old Conley on Beal and KAT chasing Allen around screens. IMO the Suns are much better equipped to defend the Wolves than vice versa.