Wemby and Chet lead the league in blocks

[MoneyTalks41890]

Chet specifically works on trying to keep blocked shots inbounds and trying to secure them himself or make sure the ball is up for grabs. He specifically is a bad example of blocked the shot OOB so his team didn't get it.

[The-Power]

Hold it up to scrutiny if you like, but I can think of a few current and historical examples where getting out of position for blocks leads to worse defensive rebounding in some cases, including Chet. It’s not possible to come all the way over or jump sideways and still box out your man. Look at Jaren for example, Anthony Davis only blocks two shots a game. That’s by design. I thought this was a widely known thing, it’s not to do with competitiveness. Chet is at the top of the league in paint contests.

Do you have any data on how many of Chet's blocks are rebounded by opponents versus his own team (mind you that this would only have a minuscule impact on overall DRB% considering how low the ratio of blocked shots versus non-blocked shots still is) or that Chet in particular is out of position when he goes for blocks and this is overall detrimental to his team's defense? Because ‘Chet blocks a lot of shots and OKC is a poor defensive rebounding team, ergo his shot blocking must hurt his team’ is not exactly convincing analysis.

Aight man, that what coaches instruct their players to do. This is rooted in the numbers if you disagree. Sure, feel free to go look, but in 2024 this is pretty rudimentary at this point. It’s been a think for a decade

Again – how do you know what players are instructed to do? And how is this rooted in the numbers? The main reason for changes in block numbers over time are broader changes to the game, and the increase in 3pt shooting volume in particular. BLK% – the share of 2pt shots blocked – is actually up, and considerably so compared to some seasons in the past. The idea that teams and players these days actually discourage shot blocking is in fact not backed up by the numbers.

If your only evidence for that is raw numbers for individual players, you are not looking at the broader evolution happening in basketball. For example, AD's BLK% this year stands at 5.7 which is the 4th highest of his career. The main reason he blocks fewer shots – apart from aging – is that he has fewer opportunities to block shots (higher share of 3PA and more likely to be pulled away from the rim due to spacing), and not that he doesn't look to block shots anymore when the opportunity presents itself.

[The-Power]

Do you have any data on how many of Chet's blocks are rebounded by opponents versus his own team

64.8% of chet's blocks are recovered by the thunder which is above average for shot blockers in the nba. this is, obviously, teammate and scheme dependent.

Thanks for the info! Do you have a source for me to look at how it compares to other players?

[slick_watts]

Do you have any data on how many of Chet's blocks are rebounded by opponents versus his own team

64.8% of chet's blocks are recovered by the thunder which is above average for shot blockers in the nba. this is, obviously, teammate and scheme dependent.

Thanks for the info! Do you have a source for me to look at how it compares to other players?

this table on pbpstats has it. see BLK REC for totals and REC % for the percentage of blocks recovered:

https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/player?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Type=Player&StatType=Totals&Table=Misc

[Lockdown504090]

Do you have any data on how many of Chet's blocks are rebounded by opponents versus his own team (mind you that this would only have a minuscule impact on overall DRB% considering how low the ratio of blocked shots versus non-blocked shots still is) or that Chet in particular is out of position when he goes for blocks and this is overall detrimental to his team's defense? Because ‘Chet blocks a lot of shots and OKC is a poor defensive rebounding team, ergo his shot blocking must hurt his team’ is not exactly convincing analysis.

Aight man, that what coaches instruct their players to do. This is rooted in the numbers if you disagree. Sure, feel free to go look, but in 2024 this is pretty rudimentary at this point. It’s been a think for a decade

Again – how do you know what players are instructed to do? And how is this rooted in the numbers? The main reason for changes in block numbers over time are broader changes to the game, and the increase in 3pt shooting volume in particular. BLK% – the share of 2pt shots blocked – is actually up, and considerably so compared to some seasons in the past. The idea that teams and players these days actually discourage shot blocking is in fact not backed up by the numbers.

If your only evidence for that is raw numbers for individual players, you are not looking at the broader evolution happening in basketball. For example, AD's BLK% this year stands at 5.7 which is the 4th highest of his career. The main reason he blocks fewer shots – apart from aging – is that he has fewer opportunities to block shots (higher share of 3PA and more likely to be pulled away from the rim due to spacing), and not that he doesn't look to block shots anymore when the opportunity presents itself.

Ads block percentage is this high because he plays closer to the basket. You would need to show data on what schemes the lakers run to prove your point, Davis plays at the level less than ever because he plays for ham and also cannot do so as well. Davis defends less power forwards than ever and plays center 100 percent of the time. If you really want to get into the details of what you’re trying to show it’s going to be difficult without writing an essay because you need a crap ton of data for us to argue this., go on the high-low and watch some of Chet’s blocks and ask what happens if he doesn’t block it, or watch some opposing oboards on missed shots within 8 feet. Go watch Jaren Jackson’s blocks, and then watch how Rudy gobert, Victor and Anthony Davis block shots. It’s not the same thing

[Scalabrine]

Do you mean it's the first time a rookie and second year player has lead the league in blocks?

Imagine you're in first grade of high school. You sat in on every class, but weren't officially enrolled, so you got to skip all the tests. You just sat, and learned by watching and listening for the entire year. Next year you officially enroll, redo the class and get straight A's on every test. Are you way smarter than the first year kid who got a B?

Wow, dude, youre on a roll today!

[kenwood3333]

But based on espn stats, Chet is 4th and not leading with Wemby

Victor Wembanyama 3.6
Walker Kessler 2.4
Brook Lopez 2.4
Anthony Davis 2.3
Chet Holmgren 2.3

[tsherkin]

But based on espn stats, Chet is 4th and not leading with Wemby

Victor Wembanyama 3.6
Walker Kessler 2.4
Brook Lopez 2.4
Anthony Davis 2.3
Chet Holmgren 2.3

BPG versus total blocks, per OP.

Wemby has 254, Chet has 190, BroPez has 189 and AD has 178.

ESPN BPG averages aren't relevant.

[Scalabrine]

64.8% of chet's blocks are recovered by the thunder which is above average for shot blockers in the nba. this is, obviously, teammate and scheme dependent.

Thanks for the info! Do you have a source for me to look at how it compares to other players?

this table on pbpstats has it. see BLK REC for totals and REC % for the percentage of blocks recovered:

https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/player?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Type=Player&StatType=Totals&Table=Misc

This is an awesome site, thanks!

This stat also helps illustrate that point about how overrated blocks are. Wemby has the highest block recovered % at 68% and most over the other elite shotblockers are around 58-64%, which means 40ish% of the time a block shot doesn't change possession and gets the offense the ball with an out of place defense.

[tsherkin]

This stat also helps illustrate that point about how overrated blocks are. Wemby has the highest block recovered % at 68% and most over the other elite shotblockers are around 58-64%, which means 40ish% of the time a block shot doesn't change possession and gets the offense the ball with an out of place defense.

But it does stop a FGA and creates a miss, so there is that to begin with. Recovered blocks wouldn't be the relevant stat to track the UTILITY of blocks.

[zzaj]

I'm fine with calling them both rookies, but pretending Chet didn't have a leg up on Wemby coming into this season is just kinda silly. Almost every rookie talks about the difficult adjustment to 82 games and travel in their first year exit interviews. Chet had a year of experiencing that and Wemby didn't--plain and simple.

But Chet did not experience playing 82 games. He experienced travel without any games played. How is that in any way comparable? What Chet has experienced when it comes to the length and strain of an NBA season is closer to a local beat writer following the team than it is to an actual NBA rotation player. Players referring to the difficult schedule obviously refer to the exhaustion from combining traveling and playing.

It's also an adjustment to play against grown men. Victor had a leg up on Chet in that regard. Does that make him more prepared for the NBA than Chet? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know and neither does anyone on this forum.

By the way, it's also an obvious advantage to have played multiple years in college or overseas, gaining additional experience in a more professional setting than high school, developing physically, honing skills, getting more used to the pressure of high-stakes games, handling the media, and maturing as a person.

Yet we do not have these silly conversations about anyone who comes into the NBA after a couple years in college or overseas. Or about players whose fathers played in the NBA. Or about those whose fathers are coaching basketball. All of them are Rookies, and the extent to which a player is ‘prepared’ for the NBA depends very much on the individual.

This is Chet's first season actually playing in the NBA. That's the definition of a Rookie set by the NBA, and that makes him a Rookie just like Victor, and 30-year old Micić, and 4-year college player Marcus Sasser. End of story.

But no, this board just cannot appreciate the greatness of these two Rookies and instead has to turn every conversation into a frenzy yelling ‘he's not a Rookie’ for the 134th time. Chet is officially a Rookie. Deal with it. (Not addressing you personally but everyone who cannot handle Chet being mentioned in conversations about Rookies or part of official NBA leaderboards).

Sure...but you're building a stawman that doesn't really resemble me.

Your last point about appreciating "the greatness of these two Rookies" is pretty much how I ended my post.

And you're one hundred percent correct...a beat reporter that travels with the team would have an absolute advantage in knowing the ins-and-outs of being an NBA player--seeing how players prepare mentally and physically, the early or late bus system that gets player to the Arena for away games, how to eat, how to handle finances, knowing what is required or not in terms of fan engagement, workout adjustments, etc... -- over Wemby. Those things have a considerable impact on players, and like I said, Rookie exit interviews often reflect that.

To your point that Wemby would have a leg-up on Chet in terms of playing against "grown men"--I agree. And we can continue to get as micro as you'd like. No problems there...

Chet came into his second season with a better understanding of what it's like to play in the NBA. I don't see why anybody would argue against that.

Are they both rookies? All I know is my Joe Montana rookie card is from his second season because the first he was injured.

[The-Power]

Thanks for the info! Do you have a source for me to look at how it compares to other players?

this table on pbpstats has it. see BLK REC for totals and REC % for the percentage of blocks recovered:

https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/player?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Type=Player&StatType=Totals&Table=Misc

This is an awesome site, thanks!

This stat also helps illustrate that point about how overrated blocks are. Wemby has the highest block recovered % at 68% and most over the other elite shotblockers are around 58-64%, which means 40ish% of the time a block shot doesn't change possession and gets the offense the ball with an out of place defense.

You can't calculate it that way, though. A block is a guaranteed miss, i.e., 0% FG. If the offense recovers the ball 40% of the time, that means in 40% of all cases the offense retains possession.

FG% around the league is 47.4. This includes blocked shots. So let's say the offense has a 50% chance to make the shot if not blocked for simplicity (let's also discount 3PA for that reason). Overall OREB% around the league is at 24.2 (a bit less on only non-blocked shots but still in that ballpark). So a quarter of the missed shots – half of all – is still rebounded by the offense, meaning that the chance to either score or retain possession on a non-blocked FGA is 62.5%. I think this clearly demonstrates the value of blocks (generally speaking – of course other factors must be considered and not every shot block attempt is worth it).

I'm not also not sure I agree that you now deal with an out-of-place defense. Why? A block is essentially just the most effective form of a contest. Using your logic, defenses should be out of place after every shot contest (which is after most shots). Also, a block attempt means a lower shot clock as it does not reset, and offenses deeper in the shot clock are less efficient – that elevates the value of blocks further.

Now, that being said, chasing for blocks can absolutely be detrimental to a team's defense. So I suppose the conclusion should be that blocks are – generally speaking but with a few exceptions – a positive outcome of a defensive possessions but that this does not mean going for blocks every time is a good strategy because that can indeed compromise defenses and hurt more than help. If you have a choice between blocking the shot or just contesting it with all else being equal? You take the block every time.

[Scalabrine]

This stat also helps illustrate that point about how overrated blocks are. Wemby has the highest block recovered % at 68% and most over the other elite shotblockers are around 58-64%, which means 40ish% of the time a block shot doesn't change possession and gets the offense the ball with an out of place defense.

But it does stop a FGA and creates a miss, so there is that to begin with. Recovered blocks wouldn't be the relevant stat to track the UTILITY of blocks.

Is there a difference between the two?

I agree that that is the reason a block is good, but I just think too many people look at blocks as the main measurement of a good post defender. I think theres definitely a correlation between these young, less disciplined defenders leading the league in blocks but also not being favorites for DPOY. Positioning, communication, leadership, and IQ have a higher impact on that side of the ball than a blocked shot.

Side note, I feel like the NBA should start adding some variation of STOCKS (steals and blocks) with and added charge as a single raw statistical metric. I feel like the ability to draw charges is just as important if not more important than the other main defensive stats that most people pay attention to.

[tsherkin]

Side note, I feel like the NBA should start adding some variation of STOCKS (steals and blocks) with and added charge as a single raw statistical metric. I feel like the ability to draw charges is just as important if not more important than the other main defensive stats that most people pay attention to.

Stocks would be redundant, since blocks and steals are already there and addition is simple enough.

Deflections would be better to have more accessible. NBA.com does have that, and contested shots, among other things though.

[turnmeup88]

I don't really care how we apoint players as rookies or whatever, but I also thought it should be the first year you are officially being paid by a franchise, which would get rid of all these arguments.

You know what else would get rid of the argument? Accepting that the NBA defines a Rookie as someone who has never played in the NBA before. That is as clear as it gets and makes at least as much sense as using the ‘being paid’ logic. And guess what would happen if you'd use the latter logic: a number of people would then argue that whether or not you have previously played in the NBA matters, not whether or not you have been paid by an NBA team.

I get that i wasn’t arguing against it.
The only issue with the current format is that internally on the Thunder team, they don’t see Chet as a rookie. His teammates see him as a second year player, and someone like Cason Wallace definitely sees him as a sophomore not as a rookie.

I sais i wasn’t arguing against it, because i don’t actually care what constitutes a rookie but i understand the argument on both sides.

You can play 0 minutes in the NBA, sit on the bench, but if you weren’t injured people would consider you a rookie even in the following season? At the same time, what you showcase in games for the first time to the public makes sense to be seen from a viewer perspective as a rookie.

[Scalabrine]

Side note, I feel like the NBA should start adding some variation of STOCKS (steals and blocks) with and added charge as a single raw statistical metric. I feel like the ability to draw charges is just as important if not more important than the other main defensive stats that most people pay attention to.

Stocks would be redundant, since blocks and steals are already there and addition is simple enough.

Deflections would be better to have more accessible. NBA.com does have that, and contested shots, among other things though.

I'd like to add charges to stocks is what I was saying, but fair enough. I just feel like a charge is just as good if not better than a steal or block and it's a kind of hard to find stat.

[hippesthippo]

Aight man, that what coaches instruct their players to do. This is rooted in the numbers if you disagree. Sure, feel free to go look, but in 2024 this is pretty rudimentary at this point. It’s been a think for a decade

Again – how do you know what players are instructed to do? And how is this rooted in the numbers? The main reason for changes in block numbers over time are broader changes to the game, and the increase in 3pt shooting volume in particular. BLK% – the share of 2pt shots blocked – is actually up, and considerably so compared to some seasons in the past. The idea that teams and players these days actually discourage shot blocking is in fact not backed up by the numbers.

If your only evidence for that is raw numbers for individual players, you are not looking at the broader evolution happening in basketball. For example, AD's BLK% this year stands at 5.7 which is the 4th highest of his career. The main reason he blocks fewer shots – apart from aging – is that he has fewer opportunities to block shots (higher share of 3PA and more likely to be pulled away from the rim due to spacing), and not that he doesn't look to block shots anymore when the opportunity presents itself.

Ads block percentage is this high because he plays closer to the basket. You would need to show data on what schemes the lakers run to prove your point, Davis plays at the level less than ever because he plays for ham and also cannot do so as well. Davis defends less power forwards than ever and plays center 100 percent of the time. If you really want to get into the details of what you’re trying to show it’s going to be difficult without writing an essay because you need a crap ton of data for us to argue this., go on the high-low and watch some of Chet’s blocks and ask what happens if he doesn’t block it, or watch some opposing oboards on missed shots within 8 feet. Go watch Jaren Jackson’s blocks, and then watch how Rudy gobert, Victor and Anthony Davis block shots. It’s not the same thing

I thought most of us came to this conclusion awhile ago. Marc Gasol won a Defensive Player of the Year, didn't he? A hell of a lot more goes into paint defense than just raw blocks and rebounds. It's all about positioning and playing within a scheme. Quite often, chasing after blocks is detrimental to the team.

[hippesthippo]

This stat also helps illustrate that point about how overrated blocks are. Wemby has the highest block recovered % at 68% and most over the other elite shotblockers are around 58-64%, which means 40ish% of the time a block shot doesn't change possession and gets the offense the ball with an out of place defense.

But it does stop a FGA and creates a miss, so there is that to begin with. Recovered blocks wouldn't be the relevant stat to track the UTILITY of blocks.

Is there a difference between the two?

I agree that that is the reason a block is good, but I just think too many people look at blocks as the main measurement of a good post defender. I think theres definitely a correlation between these young, less disciplined defenders leading the league in blocks but also not being favorites for DPOY. Positioning, communication, leadership, and IQ have a higher impact on that side of the ball than a blocked shot.

Side note, I feel like the NBA should start adding some variation of STOCKS (steals and blocks) with and added charge as a single raw statistical metric. I feel like the ability to draw charges is just as important if not more important than the other main defensive stats that most people pay attention to.

Yup. These types of dudes block numbers typically drop off after their first year or two in the league and it's not simply because of a decline in athleticism. It's because they're getting smarter and learning when to go for the block and when not to. Maintaining positioning and avoiding fouling, etc.

[tsherkin]

I'd like to add charges to stocks is what I was saying, but fair enough. I just feel like a charge is just as good if not better than a steal or block and it's a kind of hard to find stat.

You did say that, I'm just illiterate. My bad. A charge is an interesting thing to look at, though obviously guys sham BS charges, and encouraging that is a little crappy. There have been issues with that over the years.

Deflections and turnovers generated are the things we are looking for, as well as quality contests. NBA.com/stats tracks charges drawn, FWIW.

EDIT: There are only 2 guys in the league with more than 0.3 charges drawn per game, though, so it's utility to analysis is of dubious value.

[tsherkin]

Yup. These types of dudes block numbers typically drop off after their first year or two in the league and it's not simply because of a decline in athleticism. It's because they're getting smarter and learning when to go for the block and when not to. Maintaining positioning and avoiding fouling, etc.

With Wemby, though, you can already see the nature of his positioning and how he's getting the blocks is pretty good. He isn't jumping around like an idiot, he's not typically out of position or anything. He's usually making good rotations and is just a physical freak whose length permits him to contest more effectively than anyone else, plus he's pretty clever about it.