madskillz8 wrote:
TBH, I was thinking about 7'1+ players with long arms who played considerable minutes as a rookie, and I definitely missed out Mutombo and Robinson.
Mutombo 7'2-7'6 (avg. 3.0 blocks as a rookie, career average: 2.8)
Robinson 7'1-7'5 (avg. 3.9 blocks as a rookie, career average 3.0)
My main argument was the fact that rookies with extreme height and wingspan always produce high block numbers. Because height & wingspan is there from day 1. Anyone who played a pickup game with his younger cousins can understand what I am saying, even at 5'8 you can feel like a Dikembe Mutombo out there, lol.
Sure, I'm not disagreeing with the whole point: yes, there are several instances of players (Ibaka, Gobert from recent times), who improved defensively while decreasing their share of blocked shots, and examples of players (Embiid, Shaq) who decreased their blocking numbers due to heavy offensive load.
My points are:
1. The question is whether that will be the case with players (Wemby, Chet) who already are anchoring elite defenses/defenses on great level with them on a court (111 DRTG for Wemby since early December, top5 defense for OKC) + Wembanyama on offense as a rookie already played on 26-5 offensive volume (per36). He may not be too efficient as a scorer for now, but hard to deny he has already played on superstar 'load'.
2.
On yellow, 7'1+ guys, most names from top40 blockers of alltime:
I could've added Embiid or Smits, but there are also examples of Ilgauskas, Yao or Roy Hibbert, who peaked in their non-rookie years.
If you look on per possession basis, I don't there's as strong correlation as you suggest (several guys peaking in their non-rookie year). Rookie stats vs career are still higher (that proves your point obviously), but I guess that can be partially explained by the fact that most of these guys were more athletic as rookies than in the latter part of their careers.
And first and foremost - Smits, Embiid, Shaq, McHale or Gobert - they're all good examples, but the basic difference is - Wemby as a rookie is already borderline-DPOTY defender and Chet is ~All-NBA D Team candidate. Mutombo, Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, Duncan, Mourning - so the players impact-wise comparable to what we believe Chet and Wemby may reach one day - actually had different 'curve' of development as shot-blockers. Not to mention they were all older than rookie Wemby (and in some cases older than Chet as well).
That's why - while I agree with or understand the whole premise of your argumentation (and don't forget that blocked shots =/= level of defense, necessarily) - I'd rather bet that it won't be the case for Wemby/Chet. That being said, these stats show that their 'blocking peak' may not be as high as some would like to believe, and that's another thing I agree with.
