Joel Embiid has played 40 less games than Nikola Jokic - Still has more FT attempts than him this season.

[Cubbies2120]

Imagine if Jokic received the whistle Embiid gets? Would we be looking at the GOAT by a distance?

[tsherkin]

It's egregious. Embiid is also the only mvp caliber player to have a significant drop off in PPG and effeciency when FTA attempts are reduced. Comparing Embiid, Jokic, Giannis and SGA this year in games with 6 or less free throws, Embiid has by FAR the biggest PPG and effeciency fall off.

His game is genuinely dependent on free throws. Like Harden. Without bending the rules, he's a 29 PPG scorer on 60%ts

So, ignoring the fact that FTs are part of the game and always have been, it isn't quite accurate that his game is "genuinely dependent upon FTs." That isn't how it has been in the RS. In the playoffs, he is often unhealthy, and you can argue that he struggles against more physical defenders with any kind of size, for sure. But the dude is quite dangerous from 10 feet out to the 3pt line. Less reliable from 3, but that's not a huge chunk of his game. He cuts well around penetration, and he has legit post moves. You see spins, you see pivots, he seals well.

It's a little derivative and inaccurate to reduce him to nothing but FTAs. He has plenty of shotmaking. It's sort of the same deal when people try to say that D-Rob or Karl Malone could only score when they were drawing FTs, because that wasn't accurate either. Jumper-heavy? Sure. Fades against physicality? Also sure. But "genuinely free throw dependent" is sort of an empty phrase because everyone needs to use FTs to prop up efficiency. That's how it has always worked, for ever in each era of the NBA.

That in mind, for the RS...

These past 3 seasons, Embiid has been a 20.96, 23.1 and 24.5 ppg scorer when you entirely remove FTM. Right there, you know it's BS that he is "genuinely dependent upon free throws."

Jokic has been at 21.96, 19.6 and 21.9.

Giannis (and I have no idea how you added him as if that was a sensible plan, given that he's been a 10.7 - 12.3 FTA/g guy these past 3 seasonS) has been at 21.6, 23.2 and 23.4.

SGA these past 2 seasons has been at 21.6 and 22.5... and has led the league in made free throws each season.

Like... there isn't a major deviation for Embiid in terms of PPG without FTM compared to those players to begin with.

That, of course, is in the RS. You were specifically addressing the PS, and that's a different animal to some extent, but his issues there do not relate to FTs.

Embiid hasn't been healthy these past couple of years and had a really rough 2023 PS as a result.

In 2022, he was at 59% TS over 56.7% (league average in the playoffs) while scoring 23.6 ppg on 16.1 FGA/g. He didn't need to score 30+ ppg most of the time because Maxey, Harden and Harris were all taking 13+ FGA/g, and it was more Harden crapping himself inside the arc which was of issue.

And then yes, he totally lost it against Miami, which reinforces how well that first series went and how sharply he dropped off against Miami in particular.

But I don't see you talking about how he beat the piss out of the Wizards in 2021, or had a strong series against Atlanta that same year. Or what he did to Boston the year before.

Recency bias, my dude. Pay attention to it. Ripping on Embiid is very en vogue at the moment, particularly after the Miami series and after his injured games against Brooklyn and Boston last year, but they aren't his whole career and broad generalizations are usually dangerous.

[Peregrine01]

There's a reason why one guy can keep his dominance going in the playoffs and the other guy shrinks lol

But again...

Embiid RS: .553 FTr
Embiid PS: .558 FTr

His reliance upon drawing FTs isn't the issue for him in the playoffs; he maintains his draw rate without issue.

Health aside, his actual issue is that he goes from a RS% FG% of 50.4% (54.1% 2FG and 34.1% 3FG) to 46.1% (51.0% 2FG and 28.0% 3FG) and can't maintain comparable shooting volume (18.2 FGA/g in the RS, 20+ the last 2 seasons; has only one PS over 17.9 FGA/g).

So again, his foul-baiting isn't actually his primary issue come the playoffs. It's fairly similar to David Robinson or Karl Malone, actually, though obviously with a different angle of approach.

Posting a 55% FTR against a defense and posting a 55% FTR against a defense that's suddenly allowed to be more physical are two VASTLY different things. So yeah, he still gets to the line (it's not like refs completely swallow their whistles when he flails and flops in the playoffs) but it's taking him more to do so. If you look at the per 100 numbers, his FGA and FTA all drop in the playoffs by a good amount. And his efficiency drops across the board in the playoffs. So he's taking less shots and getting to the line less often and scoring less effectively.

[Tor_Raps]

There's a reason why one guy can keep his dominance going in the playoffs and the other guy shrinks lol

But again...

Embiid RS: .553 FTr
Embiid PS: .558 FTr

His reliance upon drawing FTs isn't the issue for him in the playoffs; he maintains his draw rate without issue.

Health aside, his actual issue is that he goes from a RS% FG% of 50.4% (54.1% 2FG and 34.1% 3FG) to 46.1% (51.0% 2FG and 28.0% 3FG) and can't maintain comparable shooting volume (18.2 FGA/g in the RS, 20+ the last 2 seasons; has only one PS over 17.9 FGA/g).

So again, his foul-baiting isn't actually his primary issue come the playoffs. It's fairly similar to David Robinson or Karl Malone, actually, though obviously with a different angle of approach.

Posting a 55% FTR against a defense and posting a 55% FTR against a defense that's suddenly allowed to be more physical are two VASTLY different things. So yeah, he still gets to the line (it's not like refs completely swallow their whistles when he flails and flops in the playoffs) but it's taking him more to do so. If you look at the per 100 numbers, his FGA and FTA all drop in the playoffs by a good amount. And his efficiency drops across the board in the playoffs. So he's taking less shots and getting to the line less often and scoring less effectively.

You can just watch the games and see how obvious it is. I don't need statistics to tell me something that's so obvious when watching lol.

[Peregrine01]

It's even more ridiculous when you consider the shot profiles of the two. Jokic has 588 made FGs from <10 feet. Embiid has 213. One guy has gotten more free throws than the guy who has nearly 3x the amount of paint points.

Where is it that you think Embiid is drawing these fouls? He's replacing made FGs with FTAs, not a procession of fouls on what would otherwise have been 17-footers. Jokic has more made FGs in close because he doesn't get the calls.

Embiid takes 42% of his FGA from midrange (10 ft to 3 pt line) and 22% of his FGA at the rim. For comparison, Giannis takes 14% of his FGA from the midrange and 52% of his FGA at the rim. Yet Embiid has a similar free throw rate as Giannis.

So no, it's not like he's getting to the rim more and guys can't help but foul. It's that he embellishes every little contact and falls like a sack of potatoes the second he feels it and puts the onus on refs to call it, who by and large have obliged.

[The Real Dalic]

Absolutely laughable. Focusing on "passing" vs "foul baiting" is not equivalent.

Why not?

Troll on.

You added nothing to this conversation but one liners that mean nothing. Credit to zimpy27 for how he handled this conversation.

[The Real Dalic]

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Jokic gets a bad whistle in the same way that I don't think Curry gets one. Both players do not play to get fouled. Curry flops on 3 point shots from time-to-time, but he's not actually getting fouled a lot of the time.

I feel the same way with Jokic. He's normally making plays for others at the top of the key. Even when he's in the paint, it's mostly post jumpers, face-up jumpers, post hooks, or floaters. He's never throwing his body into people or embracing contact as much.

Embiid has made his career flopping and purposefully throwing his body into the opponent on every drive. I actually am a rare person it seems that likes Embiid as well. But he is a foul-baiting flopper. That's why he has more free thows.

[Alatan]

The fact that "drawing" fouls exists as an ability is what is wrong with the NBA. Stop calling defensive fouls on contact initiated by the offensive player and voila, problem solved.

[Peregrine01]

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Jokic gets a bad whistle in the same way that I don't think Curry gets one. Both players do not play to get fouled. Curry flops on 3 point shots from time-to-time, but he's not actually getting fouled a lot of the time.

I feel the same way with Jokic. He's normally making plays for others at the top of the key. Even when he's in the paint, it's mostly post jumpers, face-up jumpers, post hooks, or floaters. He's never throwing his body into people or embracing contact as much.

Embiid has made his career flopping and purposefully throwing his body into the opponent on every drive. I actually am a rare person it seems that likes Embiid as well. But he is a foul-baiting flopper. That's why he has more free thows.

Jokic embraces contact probably more than anyone else in the league. He's like Shaq - if you're not bear hugging him all the time there's really no way to defend him.

This gets to another difference that I see between Embiid and Jokic. While they're roughly the same weight, Jokic just seems more immovable. Yes, Embiid is always flailing but it seems easier to dislodge him out of his spot. Jokic just seems to have a way stronger base and incidentally gets punished for that because fouls don't really seem to affect him as much.

[tsherkin]

Posting a 55% FTR against a defense and posting a 55% FTR against a defense that's suddenly allowed to be more physical are two VASTLY different things. So yeah, he still gets to the line (it's not like refs completely swallow their whistles when he flails and flops in the playoffs) but it's taking him more to do so. If you look at the per 100 numbers, his FGA and FTA all drop in the playoffs by a good amount. And his efficiency drops across the board in the playoffs. So he's taking less shots and getting to the line less often and scoring less effectively.

Not all of those defenses are any kind of special, especially given how many first round series he's played in. And you have to factor in injury ahead of those matchups.

Also, basically everyone ever declines going into the playoffs, so that on its own means only so much. Meantime, it's very clear that since his possession totals and his FTr aren't changing that much, it's mostly narrative and/or situational when the refs are swallowing their whistles, which means it isn't broadly relevant to his play at all.

Meantime, he's getting less shots, so of course he gets fewer raw FTA. The rate stays the same, which trumps that. These past two seasons, it's really the volume of shots that he's been able to get which has been his largest issue, but that's also been series based. If you noticed last year against Brooklyn, he shot 13.0 FGA/g... but against the Celtics when he was able to play, he shot 19.0 FGA/g. And if you ignore the 26-minute, 9 FGA game he started the series with post-injury, those last 5 games were at 21.0 FGA/g. And he had a mix of very good and terrible games. He was missing bread-and-butter shots in the second half of game 4, and just faded right out of everything in Game 7. Only had 2 shots in the 4th, and was brutal in the 3rd. But he had some other games which were quite good, and he wasn't working with a lot in that series based on how the others performed. And it behooves one to remember that Boston was the number 3 defense in the league, as well.

So anyway, like I said, it's worth realizing that it's a little more complex than just "myah, playoffs are harder, so it cost more," and all that, you know what I mean?

You're not going to find me trying to say he's a BRILLIANT playoff performer, for sure. But he gets a LOT of his shots in the paint, and that's where he's drawing his fouls. That's WHY his draw rate is fairly consistent. Again, he absolutely shills for fouls, this is something inescapably obvious, but he's doing it a lot of places where his draw rate wasn't going to be crap to begin with.

Remember, I was responding to Tor_Raps suggesting that his reliance upon FTs is why he withers in the playoffs, and that's very clearly not the case.

You can just watch the games and see how obvious it is. I don't need statistics to tell me something that's so obvious when watching lol.

No, you actually do, because you keep making inaccurate statements which can be corrected by objective facts.

[MarcusBrody]

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Jokic gets a bad whistle in the same way that I don't think Curry gets one. Both players do not play to get fouled. Curry flops on 3 point shots from time-to-time, but he's not actually getting fouled a lot of the time.

I feel the same way with Jokic. He's normally making plays for others at the top of the key. Even when he's in the paint, it's mostly post jumpers, face-up jumpers, post hooks, or floaters. He's never throwing his body into people or embracing contact as much.

Embiid has made his career flopping and purposefully throwing his body into the opponent on every drive. I actually am a rare person it seems that likes Embiid as well. But he is a foul-baiting flopper. That's why he has more free thows.

I don't disagree that Jokic isn't looking for fouls on every play, so that lowers his rate, but I do on a few other things. He absolutely embraces contact, he uses his strength to move players all the time inside. He finishes in a variety of ways - some of which don't draw contact - but he uses the bull rush bump all the time to get a little space. He gets slapped on the arms a lot without getting those calls, especially after that bump either by the guy who is guarding him and trying to get back into position or by the help defender coming as he pulls out a counter move. They would seem to be clear fouls. Just the arm slaps would probably move him from 5.5 fta a game to 7.5-8 a game, which I think would be fair. Basically one or two more fouls called a game on clear arm smacks/grabs that currently go unpunished, especially by smaller help defenders.

I actually like that they let Jokic bang down low and defenders bang back. That's solid, hard, man up basketball to me. I actually think I have more of an issue with how other players are officiated (the aforementioned difference in what is a foul for guards vs against guards, some outlier big men yelling, flailing, and falling down constantly, etc) than how Jokic is. I think the league would be better if they let the physicality they allow with Jokic go one more widely.

[The Real Dalic]

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think Jokic gets a bad whistle in the same way that I don't think Curry gets one. Both players do not play to get fouled. Curry flops on 3 point shots from time-to-time, but he's not actually getting fouled a lot of the time.

I feel the same way with Jokic. He's normally making plays for others at the top of the key. Even when he's in the paint, it's mostly post jumpers, face-up jumpers, post hooks, or floaters. He's never throwing his body into people or embracing contact as much.

Embiid has made his career flopping and purposefully throwing his body into the opponent on every drive. I actually am a rare person it seems that likes Embiid as well. But he is a foul-baiting flopper. That's why he has more free thows.

I don't disagree that Jokic isn't looking for fouls on every play, so that lowers his rate, but I do on a few other things. He absolutely embraces contact, he uses his strength to move players all the time inside. He finishes in a variety of ways - some of which don't draw contact - but he uses the bull rush bump all the time to get a little space. He gets slapped on the arms a lot without getting those calls, especially after that bump either by the guy who is guarding him and trying to get back into position or by the help defender coming as he pulls out a counter move. They would seem to be clear fouls. Just the arm slaps would probably move him from 5.5 fta a game to 7.5-8 a game, which I think would be fair. Basically one or two more fouls called a game on clear arm smacks/grabs that currently go unpunished, especially by smaller help defenders.

I actually like that they let Jokic bang down low and defenders bang back. That's solid, hard, man up basketball to me. I actually think I have more of an issue with how other players are officiated (the aforementioned difference in what is a foul for guards vs against guards, some outlier big men yelling, flailing, and falling down constantly, etc) than how Jokic is. I think the league would be better if they let the physicality they allow with Jokic go one more widely.

I agree with everything here. Unfortunately, refs only call fouls when they're fooled and they love being tricked with obvious flops. But if it's an obvious slap on the arm and you don't react, they don't call it because they're either blind or stupid. They have to pick one, no other options.

[Peregrine01]

Posting a 55% FTR against a defense and posting a 55% FTR against a defense that's suddenly allowed to be more physical are two VASTLY different things. So yeah, he still gets to the line (it's not like refs completely swallow their whistles when he flails and flops in the playoffs) but it's taking him more to do so. If you look at the per 100 numbers, his FGA and FTA all drop in the playoffs by a good amount. And his efficiency drops across the board in the playoffs. So he's taking less shots and getting to the line less often and scoring less effectively.

Not all of those defenses are any kind of special, especially given how many first round series he's played in. And you have to factor in injury ahead of those matchups.

Also, basically everyone ever declines going into the playoffs, so that on its own means only so much. Meantime, it's very clear that since his possession totals and his FTr aren't changing that much, it's mostly narrative and/or situational when the refs are swallowing their whistles, which means it isn't broadly relevant to his play at all.

Meantime, he's getting less shots, so of course he gets fewer raw FTA. The rate stays the same, which trumps that. These past two seasons, it's really the volume of shots that he's been able to get which has been his largest issue, but that's also been series based. If you noticed last year against Brooklyn, he shot 13.0 FGA/g... but against the Celtics when he was able to play, he shot 19.0 FGA/g. And if you ignore the 26-minute, 9 FGA game he started the series with post-injury, those last 5 games were at 21.0 FGA/g. And he had a mix of very good and terrible games. He was missing bread-and-butter shots in the second half of game 4, and just faded right out of everything in Game 7. Only had 2 shots in the 4th, and was brutal in the 3rd. But he had some other games which were quite good, and he wasn't working with a lot in that series based on how the others performed. And it behooves one to remember that Boston was the number 3 defense in the league, as well.

So anyway, like I said, it's worth realizing that it's a little more complex than just "myah, playoffs are harder, so it cost more," and all that, you know what I mean?

You're not going to find me trying to say he's a BRILLIANT playoff performer, for sure. But he gets a LOT of his shots in the paint, and that's where he's drawing his fouls. That's WHY his draw rate is fairly consistent. Again, he absolutely shills for fouls, this is something inescapably obvious, but he's doing it a lot of places where his draw rate wasn't going to be crap to begin with.

If a defense is allowed to get more physical and you're less sure that whistles will be blown, you're likely to take less shots. So just comparing FTR isn't telling you the story. Over the last 3 years, he's gone from 17 FTA/100 to 13 FTA/100 and from 30 FGA/100 to 24 FGA/100. It's a pretty significant shift in volume.

And there's a vast difference between taking shots in a regular season game when defense is completely neutered to taking the same shots in a game 7 when the defense is allowed to get into your legs on every possession and it becomes a war of attrition. Just look at the Heat-Nuggets game 5 last year - it looked like a completely different sport compared to the 130+ pt games we see throughout the regular season.

[tsherkin]

If a defense is allowed to get more physical and you're less sure that whistles will be blown, you're likely to take less shots. So just comparing FTR isn't telling you the story. Over the last 3 years, he's gone from 17 FTA/100 to 13 FTA/100 and from 30 FGA/100 to 24 FGA/100. It's a pretty significant shift in volume.

Yes, but that's related to the shooting volume, not his ability to draw fouls, as we've already covered.

Like I said, I'm not here to defend him as some impervious titan of postseason performance. But it's very clear that there is more to his game than just FTs. He has his issues, and we both agree that he shills for fouls too often. I've been bitching about this in like two different threads over three days now, this isn't a point I'm contesting. But there's a large difference between that and his entire game relying upon that. When he's able to get shots off, he's often fine, though he does struggle with more physically-imposing defenders. This also isn't hugely surprising because he's a 7-footer. His mobility is great for his size, but if you're able to beat him off of his spots, he's got to go away from his bread-and-butter stuff. If you're able to deny him shots, so much the better. Boston, for example, has done at least that to many different stars. We watched them smoke Kevin Durant not that long ago, and that same style of suffocating defense was none to kind to Kobe Bryant, either.

But as I said, it's important to consider health and it's important to consider team context, and it's important to remember that Embiid has a bunch of stronger performances that people aren't remembering, and a couple of rocky ones at the beginning of his postseason career over his first two seasons which are dragging down his averages. After 2018, for example, those PER100 numbers are 24.2 FGA100 and 14.1 FTA100 in the playoffs compared to 28.1 FGA100 and 16.0 FTA100 in the playoffs, for whatever that is worth (which is little, beyond what we can already tell from raw FGA/g and FTr).

[Peregrine01]

If a defense is allowed to get more physical and you're less sure that whistles will be blown, you're likely to take less shots. So just comparing FTR isn't telling you the story. Over the last 3 years, he's gone from 17 FTA/100 to 13 FTA/100 and from 30 FGA/100 to 24 FGA/100. It's a pretty significant shift in volume.

Yes, but that's related to the shooting volume, not his ability to draw fouls, as we've already covered.

Like I said, I'm not here to defend him as some impervious titan of postseason performance. But it's very clear that there is more to his game than just FTs. He has his issues, and we both agree that he shills for fouls too often. I've been bitching about this in like two different threads over three days now, this isn't a point I'm contesting. But there's a large difference between that and his entire game relying upon that. When he's able to get shots off, he's often fine, though he does struggle with more physically-imposing defenders. This also isn't hugely surprising because he's a 7-footer. His mobility is great for his size, but if you're able to beat him off of his spots, he's got to go away from his bread-and-butter stuff. If you're able to deny him shots, so much the better. Boston, for example, has done at least that to many different stars. We watched them smoke Kevin Durant not that long ago, and that same style of suffocating defense was none to kind to Kobe Bryant, either.

But as I said, it's important to consider health and it's important to consider team context, and it's important to remember that Embiid has a bunch of stronger performances that people aren't remembering, and a couple of rocky ones at the beginning of his postseason career over his first two seasons which are dragging down his averages. After 2018, for example, those PER100 numbers are 24.2 FGA100 and 14.1 FTA100 in the playoffs compared to 28.1 FGA100 and 16.0 FTA100 in the playoffs, for whatever that is worth (which is little, beyond what we can already tell from raw FGA/g and FTr).

He's tremendously skilled - there's no denying that. He's not solely a free throw merchant. The complaints about him is that he abuses the "dark arts" in ways that few have done in the past. I don't really blame it on him as much as I do the league for allowing it.

[tsherkin]

He's tremendously skilled - there's no denying that. He's not solely a free throw merchant. The complaints about him is that he abuses the "dark arts" in ways that few have done in the past.

I can't think of many worse, for sure. I agree with what you've written there. Of course, I have this entire time, heh. I'm mostly objecting to the piss-poor characterization to which I initially responded, not your remarks.

I don't really blame it on him as much as I do the league for allowing it.

Yeah, I mean it works and they let it. Not tons different than Corey Maggette back in the day. And while Dantley didn't shill the same way, he was a high-end foul draw kind of guy with the way he arranged his game too. Nothing new under the sun, and all that. xD

And lest anyone forget, Jordan, Reggie, Karl Malone and Kobe were all really brutal about getting fouls when they kicked out on a fadeaway. And they had to change the rules to stop Kobe's rip-through move that everyone started BS'g the refs with, lol. Paul Pierce used to be really good at the art of drawing contact... which is something coaches HAVE been harping on their guys about forever. Initiating contact. Somewhere along the line, that changed from "initiating contact and finishing through it" to "flopping around like a frog leg on a hot plate," though, heh.

[Bum Adebayo]

There's a reason why one guy can keep his dominance going in the playoffs and the other guy shrinks lol

But again...

Embiid RS: .553 FTr
Embiid PS: .558 FTr

His reliance upon drawing FTs isn't the issue for him in the playoffs; he maintains his draw rate without issue.

Health aside, his actual issue is that he goes from a RS% FG% of 50.4% (54.1% 2FG and 34.1% 3FG) to 46.1% (51.0% 2FG and 28.0% 3FG) and can't maintain comparable shooting volume (18.2 FGA/g in the RS, 20+ the last 2 seasons; has only one PS over 17.9 FGA/g).

So again, his foul-baiting isn't actually his primary issue come the playoffs. It's fairly similar to David Robinson or Karl Malone, actually, though obviously with a different angle of approach.

Of course, it's also his trash decision making in crunch time. There are more defensive schemes in playoffs, and he just can't perform adequately against them most of the time.
So ya main issues for him are decision making in crunch time, not good against smart double teams (more of them in playoffs) and bad stamina. It was never about FT.

[tsherkin]

Of course, it's also his trash decision making in crunch time.

There is also that, yes. That is a fair criticism.

[Message Boar]

Embiid is basically the James Harden of centers, so I'm not that surprised.

[Bum Adebayo]

It's sad that no bad threads about Embiid were posted when he was injured, as soon as he is "healthy" then the garbage threads start to emerge again.