tsherkin wrote:GeorgeMarcus wrote:The Anti-Embiid arguments remind me so much of what D Rob went through.
TBF, D-Rob and Karl Malone went through this because they started being trash scorers against better defenses in the playoffs. Significant, large drop-offs in their ability to make shots. To an embarrassing degree in some cases.
Embiid is approximately a 28/11/3.5 guy in the RS on about 50/34/83 in the RS, at 61.5% TS, and +5.3 OBPM for a rude measure (acknowledging that stat in all its sundry imperfections, mind).
Come the playoffs, that changes to about 25/11/3 on about 46/29/82, at 57.9% TS and +2.8 OBPM.
There is a very visible, significant drop-off in his ability to maintain anything similar to the level of play which makes him so remarkable in the RS, on the offensive end. He exerts defensive impact, no question. There is also the truth that people a little bit oversell some specific games where he came up short. For example, in 2020 and 2021, he was a 60% and 63.1% TS guy in the playoffs (and +5.1 and +4.7 OBPM, at that). And in 2022, he was a 59% TS guy against a regular season average of 56.6% (playoff average the same).
So while he's struggling this postseason all over the place (game 3 notwithstanding) on offense, he's actually got a pretty good overall record as far as postseason performance. So where do we see the issues cropping up, that in mind? Performance relative to RS performance, sure, but let's look at it further to see what people are after.
He stank in 2018 and 2019, but those were also his 2nd and 3rd seasons in the league and his first two postseasons.
It is worth remembering that he's been a 59%+ TS guy in the RS since 2019, and since 2021? 63.6, 61.6, 65.5 and 64.4. During that same stretch, his postseasons have been at 63.1, 59.0, 56.1, 56.1 and 58.2.
Now, let's look at some specific games, yeah? This is probably where people get focused.
Philly got spanked 4-0 in 2020 by the Celtics. Having shot 47.7% from the field in the RS, Embiid shot 45.9% FG and couldn't hit a three in that series. It was a 60% TS series for him. He had a very efficient first game, led the game in scoring in games 2 and 3, then shot an uninspiring 8/18 in the final game, though that wasn't a huge deviation from his normal FG%. ANd he was 13/18 at the line. A little disappointing from an 80.7% FT shooter, but whatever.
Nothing to write home about there. A solid game, didn't have enough around him, much better opponent, etc.
Bashed the hell out of the Wizards in 2021. 7-game series against Atlanta. Opened the series with 39 and then 40. Put up a 58.8% TS series (playoff league average was 57.1%, Embiid was at 63.6%). Big drop off, but still efficient relative to the playoffs. Not ideal. 46.9% FG against Atlanta, 51.3% in the RS. So again, not ideal. Harris and Simmons weren't awesome. And Embiid closed out in Game 7 with 31/11/3. But with 8 turnovers. But he was also 5/9 in the 4th for 11 points, and they were down 5 going into the 4th. Tight game, lost it in the second quarter when Philly only scored 18 points. The team as a whole shot 35.3% FG in the 2nd. But over the whole game, he was pretty good.
Okay, 2022. Smacked my Raps around pretty good. 26/11/2 on 62.3% TS. Nothing to report there, he ripped us apart. Against Bam and the Heat? Hot garbage. 20/10/2 on 42.6% FG, 25% from 3, 53.2% TS. Playoff league average was 56.7% (so -4.5%), and he'd posted 61.6% in the regular season. Miami was a top 5 defense, and top 2 in the playoffs. During the postseason, they allowed an average team FG% of 44.6%, good enough for 5th-best in the playoffs. And Bam was individually a strong dude who was physical and contested Embiid well, the sort against which he tends not to fare well. Kind of like Mitchell Robinson, as it happens. Didn't lead a game in scoring once in that series.
He did, however, miss the first two games of the series from the orbital fracture/concussion, which should be considered. Stank in Game 3 and 6, very good in 4 and 5 (albeit a -29 as Miami beat the ever-loving crap out of them). 7/24 in the final game of the series. Whole team was trash in that one. He was at a -6, but everyone was brutal and they lost by 9. He definitely overshot and was an absolutely brutal mess. Maxey was also brutal, but not 29% from the field brutal.
Okay.
2023. They sweep Brooklyn. Embiid looked... troubled. 20/11/4 and 5 turnovers per game. 1 MORE turnover than Harden in 36 FEWER minutes. 46.2% FG, 12.5% from 3... But he was 23/24 from the line, which saved his efficiency and left him at 60.5%. In the RS, he'd been a 65.5% player, so still quite a drop-off, and it took 95.8% from the line to save him as he dropped from 54.8% FG in the RS all the way down to that 46.2%. 8.6% is a HUUUUUUUGE drop. But again, he also missed Game 4 with the sprained knee.
Against Boston. Brutal. 42.1% from the field. 20% from 3. 54.5% TS. Playoff league average was 56.6%, and again he'd been at 65.5% (best of his career) during the RS. Massive drop-off. Boston was almost 10 points better in team ORTG in that series, won the offensive rebounding and eFG% battles, and Embiid was a big part of that. Of course, he missed the first game of that series as well (which they won), then debuted in a loss (-23), never shot better than 47.4% from the field and closed the series with a 5/18 performance where he was -28.
There's some food for thought there. He's struggled to bring it in the playoffs. He is a volume scorer; dropping off that sharply as a volume scorer in the playoffs is still a problem, even with his defensive contributions. The same was true of Robinson, and of Karl Malone. He needs to be able to produce on O. When he does, Philly is a very, very different team.
A lot of this come back to him being injured basically every postseason. He does largely seem fine when he's some kind of healthy... but if he's basically never healthy, then that matters only so much and leaves him as a fanciful what-if type of player. This offsets some of this raw +/- data, particularly when there's a reasonably clear trend.
Just some food for thought.
