Todeasy wrote:I have no idea about the general playcalling rate in last years playoffs, but in the games they've played in this regular season it's apparently been poor. Nor quite sure what point is trying to be made in highlighting the FTr as based on how the two teams play, I expect a large discrepancy there.
When I initially read your post, I read it in my head that you were talking about fouls being called. Must have misread, since that doesn't appear to be your intent based on your reply.
1) I think the gap can be closed by sharp sets. If they're just mismatch hunting and not doing anything to counter the help/shading that Denver will throw, they will be screwed.
Not sure I see that. Tight execution isn't really what I expect from the Lakers, and even if they get particular about that, their offensive ceiling is still noticeably lower.
2) I'm thinking about the defense of Denver from a few main spots. First, from every single stat I've seen Jamal Murray will not play as well as he did. He EVISCERATED their defense with a level of shotmaking that if it was our true level, he would be by far the best shooter ever (saw that he shot over 70% from mid range apparently).
It's likely that he won't play quite as well, yes., In the end, he only shot 40.5% from 3, though. He shot 61.1% inside the arc, which is around 10% better than what you usually see from him during the RS. He's normally a 51% FG guy inside the arc, and maintains that in the playoffs. He's also been at 39.8% to 42.5% from 3 during the last 3 postseasons, so you can expect a fairly similar level of production from him unless something changes.
3) Again I expect the same gap in FTr, it's not something that we should expect to change based on how the two teams play offense/defense. I am a bit concerned about the ORB, but not by a huge amount. Outside of game 1 where they inexplicably started 3 guards, they were only out-rebounded by 4 on offense (not sure how to find ORB% for just those 3 games).
Oh yes, I expect the Lakers to have a comfortable lead in drawn fouls. That's just the difference in their respective styles, as you noted. Meantime, LA remains the worst offensive rebounding team in the league, so we'll see what happens with that.
4) They do have a few advantages, hardly any series will just be one team completely outshining the other in every single aspect, but do I think it's enough to win? Probably not.
But what ARE the advantages? So far, if I've read correctly, you've noted mitigating factors and things which may not be as much a disaster as the previous series, but nothing which functions as a lever around which to drive their success. That's kind of what I'm trying to investigate. Other than draw rate, which is matched off well enough in other areas, where do they actually look better?
