RealGM Top 100 List #58

[penbeast0]

PG: Never been sold on Cousy but you have to consider him here. Nate Archibald and Penny Hardaway are the main short peak guys. Tim Hardaway and Mark Price are a small step down.

Wings: Sam Jones and Vince Carter had long outstanding careers though Sharman and Greer were considered better than Sam Jones in their peaks but the numbers for Jones look better, Arizin is the other main 50s guy. . Nique is a step down with his efficiency and defensive issues. Sidney Moncrief may be the 3rd greatest 2 guard ever . . . for 4 years, but his injuries limit his career value.

Best bigs left: Elvin Hayes is the Iverson/Nique type with weak efficiency (and poor passing) but with excellent defense and rebounding, and he was an ironman. My favorite is Mel Daniels with his 2 ABA MVPs and 3 rings (2 as clearly the best player) -- played like Alonzo Mourning offensively and Moses defensively. Bill Walton, Connie Hawkins, and Bob McAdoo for short peak guys . . . in that order for me I would guess. McAdoo, Neil Johnston, Amare, Issel, Spencer Haywood have offensive creds but bigs who don't play defense are problematic for me. Ben Wallace, Nate Thurmond, or the Worm also could come up here as well as guys like DeBusschere, Bobby Jones, etc., even Zelmo Beaty and Yao Ming. Lots of names to consider.


Vote: Sidney Moncrief -- very short peak but gives you GOAT man defense and superefficient 20ppg scoring. His peak is at least 1/4 of Walton's peak in my opinion and with Walton only staying reasonably healthy to the playoffs once as a starter, I'd rather take my chances on a 5 year ride with the Squid. He lost out to the Bird Celtics or (when he beat them) the fo fo fo Moses/Erving Sixers during the era of superteams and his playoffs are mixed -- he abused a young Michael Jordan's defense and had some monster runs but also some weak ones -- though his defense shut down several opposing scorers even in the weaker offensive runs.

[Owly]

I'm voting Bob Lanier. Acomposite post of my previous stuff why below. No new angles on it today.

I'm voting Bob Lanier
Reasoning: looks like the best career added value by crude faux-EWA/WS combination. He's also high on a similar peak based ranking which I ended up posting a few threads back (43rd, and all those above him still available didn't maintain their peak anything close to how he did, and/or have era concerns).

Spoiler:

PPR Score PPR Rank name
29.69848481 17 Amare Stoudemire
32.80243893 18 Neil Johnston
43.56604182 25 Paul Arizin
47.38143096 26 Bob McAdoo
54.3783045 30 Walt Bellamy
55.90169944 31 Terrell Brandon
63.07138812 33 Elton Brand
65.30696747 35 Ed Macauley
67.53517602 36 Emanuel Ginobili
68.01470429 37 Arvydas Sabonis
76.53103945 42 Larry Foust
77.46612163 43 Bob Lanier

All with era concerns; longevity/peak maintainance issues and/or problems defense/intangiables (Manu probably the least but minutes is an issue; for a comp see http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y2=2015).

Team level D might be held against him but his Drtg (hardly perfect, but I think sufficient for the point/claim being made) in '74 when he played 81 games led the league.

A concern might be that he missed quite a few games, including playing (just) less than 65 games and 2500 minutes for three of his five short prime/extended peak years ('76, '77 and '78 of '74-'78). Still for that 5 year span he looks like the 2nd or 3rd best player in the league (even after minutes are factored in) and he lasted much better than McAdoo.
cf:
The five year span in question http://bkref.com/tiny/64BQL
The 70s: http://bkref.com/tiny/0DbJe

Reviews on D

Lanier is the big difference. He played only when in the mood before last season. He concentrated more on stopping other teams from penetrating and fourth in blocked shots with 247.

[individual bio]
Called "Moses" by his teammates ... For leading them out of the wilderness ...... trimmer last season ...... Defense was his biggest improvement

Depending on who's in there, the Pistons can make you work. When one of the "whos" is either Trapp or Howard Porter, the opponents can relax a bit. But Rowe, Ford, Mengelt, Kevin Porter, Money and Lanier will get down and play some defense. Lanier, in fact often surprises people by jumping out to pick up guards or forwards. He also clogs the middle nicely.
[individual bio]
Has become a very intimidating defensive player who, like Dave Cowens, is not afraid to switch out on unsuspecting forwards and guards.

Somewhat confusing. Lanier is a mammoth figure to try and get around [and some other decent players but the Porters are bad and the bench "woefully weak" ... comunication and fouling called a problem, perhaps coaching semi-implied as a problem based on that?]
[individual bio]
Can rebound, block shots, play defense, do everything but clean the kitchen floor ...... [unrelated but I've touched on this] Injuries have been a problem, though, but he has always played hurt

[Vitale will be looking to emphasize D] Lanier gives him a head start. That is the advantage of having a big center. Lanier seals off the middle and is tough and aggressive.

[individual bio]Devensively he can be as imposing as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Bill Walton or Artis Gilmore

Depending on how much you allow hypotheticals, you might also consider that Detroit rushed him back in his rookie year which may have been detrimental to his long term health.

One quick and dirty study of his impact.

'76 Pistons
team points differential over the year -86 over 82 games, -1.048780488 per game
team points differential over 18 games without Lanier -92 over 18 games, -5.111111111 per game
team points differential over 64 games with Lanier +6 over 64 games, 0.09375 per game


'77 Pistons
team points differential over the year -85 over 82 games, -1.036585366 per game
team points differential over 18 games without Lanier -107 over 18 games, -5.944444444 per game
team points differential over 64 games with Lanier 22 over 64 games, 0.34375 per game

Lanier('s impact) looks a little worse in '78
'78 Pistons
team points differential over the year -102 over 82 games, -1.243902439 per game
team points differential over 19 games without Lanier -100 over 19 games, -4.347826087 per game
team points differential over 63 games with Lanier -2 over 63 games, -0.031746032 per game

Players with as many or more top 2000(ish) player seasons (as before not absolutely up to date- LeBron should now be on there) by PER (17.9+)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 18
Karl Malone 17
Shaquille O'Neal 17
Kevin Garnett 17
John Stockton 17
Tim Duncan 16
Hakeem Olajuwon 16
Kobe Bryant 16
Moses Malone 16
Charles Barkley 15
Paul Pierce 14
Clyde Drexler 14
Michael Jordan 13
Wilt Chamberlain 13
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Robert Parish 13
David Robinson 12
Oscar Robertson 12
Earvin "Magic" Johnson 12
Larry Bird 12
Jerry West 12
Patrick Ewing 12
Dominique Wilkins 12
Steve Nash 12
Allen Iverson 12
Bob Pettit 11
Bob Lanier 11
Adrian Dantley 11
Elgin Baylor 11
Vince Carter 11
Larry Nance 11
Pau Gasol 11
Alex English 11
Chris Webber 11

Players with as many top 2000ish player seasons as Lanier by WS/48 (.144+)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 18
John Stockton 18
Karl Malone 17
Tim Duncan 16
Reggie Miller 16
Shaquille O'Neal 15
Hakeem Olajuwon 15
Charles Barkley 15
Kevin Garnett 14
Kobe Bryant 14
Moses Malone 13
Paul Pierce 13
Wilt Chamberlain 13
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Robert Parish 13
David Robinson 13
Oscar Robertson 13
Earvin "Magic" Johnson 12
Jerry West 12
Adrian Dantley 12
Bill Russell 12
Ray Allen 12
Michael Jordan 11
Larry Bird 11
Steve Nash 11
Bob Pettit 11
Bob Lanier 11
Larry Nance 11
Bailey Howell 11
Detlef Schrempf 11

New angle. Wins above very good. Lanier versus last times runoff loser Elvin Hayes.

Seasons in top 2046 player seasons (i.e. WS/48 .144 or above)
Number of seasons in top 2026 player seasons (i.e. PER 17.9 or above)

Obviously this is similar to the stuff above but I figured it might be interesting to see how big the gap is by this measure.

Hayes has 3 seasons above the WS/48 bar. Two clearly so, one only marginally.

'75: 2.0934375 WS Wins Above Very Good
'77: 2.032416667 WS-WAVG
'79: 0.129375 WS-WAVG

Hayes Total: 4.255229167 WS-WAVG


Lanier WS Wins Above Very Good
'74: 5.268770833 WS-WAVG
'79: 3.129479167 WS-WAVG
'76: 3.002979167 WS-WAVG
'77: 3.006541667 WS-WAVG
'75: 3.422604167 WS-WAVG
'81: 1.497354167 WS-WAVG
'82: 1.0655 WS-WAVG
'73: 1.115625 WS-WAVG
'82: 0.662 WS-WAVG
'84: 0.669 WS-WAVG
'79: 0.420520833 WS-WAVG

Total: 23.260375

In PER, Hayes has 9 seasons over the 17.9 "very good" bar. Here his extra minutes should tell more, as much as they ever will (note also that two of his top three seasons now come on the Rockets)

'77: 3.179900498 PER/EWA Wins Above Very Good
'71: 2.71119403 PER/EWA-WAVG
'72: 2.582835821 PER/EWA-WAVG
'79: 1.853731343 PER/EWA-WAVG
'75: 1.896268657 PER/EWA-WAVG
'69: '1.838308458 PER/EWA-WAVG
'76: 0.740049751 PER/EWA-WAVG
'70: 0.729353234 PER/EWA-WAVG
'74: 0.53761194 PER/EWA-WAVG

Total: 16.06925373 PER/EWA-WAVG


PER/EWA Wins Above Very Good for Lanier
'78: 7.933283582
'75: 9.659452736
'74: 9.095522388
'72: 7.99920398
'77: 6.206268657
'76: 5.642985075
'73: 6.582089552
'79: 3.469154229
'80: 2.650497512
'71: 2.107313433
'81 1.569850746

Lanier Career WAVG 62.91562189

Okay by valuing high (metrics) peaks, that favours Lanier. Still if you believe greatness is near essential for titles then it's at least worth looking at.

Other discussion from earlier threads

I'm not as familiar with Lanier, but those WOWY numbers Owly is posting make him certainly worth a big look. Still, I wonder whether he is a superior candidate to someone like Elvin Hayes.

Look at any boxscore metric and it will say Lanier peaked (much) higher, I suspect they'd all say he added more career value and tbh how "valuable" at this point in the list are, for instance, Hayes' Win Shares garnered from sub .100 WS/48 seasons - he gets 19 Win Shares from such seasons - set greatness impact replacement level at something like .120 WS/48 and you'd take a huge chunk out of his apparent contribution, ditto with PER - where he never hit 20, which Eric Murdock and Matt Geiger did, okay that's OTT, and as I've said before the range/SD seems like it might be less in the 70s but in any case that affects Lanier just as much anyway.

Lanier doesn't have Hayes' baggage as a teammate (not sure he was entirely happy/positive by the end in Detroit but nothing like Hayes) and he rates as better by the metrics in the playoffs despite playing a large chunk of his playoff career past his prime in a tough conference (80s East). Lanier being a more willing passer might make him easier to build around too.

What does Hayes have an edge in? D, probably (though positional competition isn't equal on the accolade front), and minutes. To me, it's not nearly enough.

and some more earlier opinion based stuff on portability

I can't think really of another angle to analyse this from. I'd guess he's portable as he can score from the post, he space the floor and shoot the J, and it seems like at his best (anecdotally) he could defend guys out on the floor as well as play a more conventional anchor, and his assist % is pretty strong for a big man (double Hayes' 14.4 to 7.0).

[Quotatious]

Still voting for Elvin Hayes. You guys already know my reasoning - top 20 defender of all-time, very good rebounder, amazing longevity/durability, a little underrated scoring, pretty good in the playoffs. Basically, I don't see anyone with a greater career value than Hayes at this point.

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Vince Carter

My true contenders for this spot are Nate Thurmond and VC.

Vince was one of the most dynamic players in the golden era of shooting guards. His passing out of pick-n-roll while in New Jersey made him similar to his cousin, Tracy McGrady. His explosiveness, 3-point shooting, and low turnover rate in Toronto made him a super portable offensive menace for the Raptors.

After ending his prime in New Jersey, he willingly turned into a valuable role player, even coming off the bench for some strong teams like Dallas last year and Memphis this year.

Spoiler:

Bigs: Nate Thurmond, Ben Wallace, Bob Lanier, Bob McAdoo, Elvin Hayes

Worms: Dennis Rodman

Wings: Vince Carter, Paul Arizin, Dominique Wilkins, Penny Hardaway, Manu Ginobili, Sidney Moncrief, Grant Hill

Point Guards: Nate Archibald, Deron Williams, Mark Price

[tsherkin]

Vote Vince Carter

Good overall player (one of the best overall remaining), good longevity, mid-career renaissance showcasing his versatility, decent playoff resume... I think more highly of him than someone like non-peak (read:early 90s) Nique or Hayes, etc.

[Joao Saraiva]

My vote goes to Dennis Rodman.

He is one of the best rebounders of all time and maybe the best forward on defense of all time.

Lead the league in RPG 7 times and 8 times in TRB%. 6 times equal or above 15 RPG, peaking at an incredible 18.7! That is really amazing.

Two times DPOY, 5 times NBA champion, 7 times in the 1st NBA defensive team.

We've seen a lot of votes for Hayes lately, we already have Mutombo in, but I am more impressed with the impact of Dennis Rodman.

If there is a guy that should be voted in based on D and rebounding it's Dennis Rodman.

[tsherkin]

My vote goes to Dennis Rodman.

He is one of the best rebounders of all time and maybe the best forward on defense of all time.

Lead the league in RPG 7 times and 8 times in TRB%. 6 times equal or above 15 RPG, peaking at an incredible 18.7! That is really amazing.

Two times DPOY, 5 times NBA champion, 7 times in the 1st NBA defensive team.

We've seen a lot of votes for Hayes lately, we already have Mutombo in, but I am more impressed with the impact of Dennis Rodman.

If there is a guy that should be voted in based on D and rebounding it's Dennis Rodman.

I contest this, since his defense was a lot worse in his best volume rebounding seasons and he had health issues as well. Very good player, but his DPOYs did not coincide with his rebounding peak.

Best not to treat him as id he were an 18.7 rpg legitimate DPOY contender, you know?

[Joao Saraiva]

My vote goes to Dennis Rodman.

He is one of the best rebounders of all time and maybe the best forward on defense of all time.

Lead the league in RPG 7 times and 8 times in TRB%. 6 times equal or above 15 RPG, peaking at an incredible 18.7! That is really amazing.

Two times DPOY, 5 times NBA champion, 7 times in the 1st NBA defensive team.

We've seen a lot of votes for Hayes lately, we already have Mutombo in, but I am more impressed with the impact of Dennis Rodman.

If there is a guy that should be voted in based on D and rebounding it's Dennis Rodman.

I contest this, since his defense was a lot worse in his best volume rebounding seasons and he had health issues as well. Very good player, but his DPOYs did not coincide with his rebounding peak.

Best not to treat him as id he were an 18.7 rpg legitimate DPOY contender, you know?

Rodman averaged 18.7 RPG and was 2nd place in DPOY behind David Robinson only in 1992.

Rodman averaged 18.3 RPG the next season and was 4th in DPOY voting, behind Hakeem, Robinson and Michael Jordan.

Rodman averaged 16.8 RPG in 1995 and was 5th in DPOY, behind Hakeem, Robinson, Mutombo and Pippen.

Only in 97 Rodman was out of the top 10 defensive player voting... (on the seasons he lead the league in rebounding). So I don't know where that comes from, but yes Rodman was spectacular with his rebounding and defense at the same time.

[Owly]

My vote goes to Dennis Rodman.

He is one of the best rebounders of all time and maybe the best forward on defense of all time.

Lead the league in RPG 7 times and 8 times in TRB%. 6 times equal or above 15 RPG, peaking at an incredible 18.7! That is really amazing.

Two times DPOY, 5 times NBA champion, 7 times in the 1st NBA defensive team.

We've seen a lot of votes for Hayes lately, we already have Mutombo in, but I am more impressed with the impact of Dennis Rodman.

If there is a guy that should be voted in based on D and rebounding it's Dennis Rodman.

I contest this, since his defense was a lot worse in his best volume rebounding seasons and he had health issues as well. Very good player, but his DPOYs did not coincide with his rebounding peak.

Best not to treat him as id he were an 18.7 rpg legitimate DPOY contender, you know?

Rodman averaged 18.7 RPG and was 2nd place in DPOY behind David Robinson only in 1992.

Rodman averaged 18.3 RPG the next season and was 4th in DPOY voting, behind Hakeem, Robinson and Michael Jordan.

Rodman averaged 16.8 RPG in 1995 and was 5th in DPOY, behind Hakeem, Robinson, Mutombo and Pippen.

Only in 97 Rodman was out of the top 10 defensive player voting... (on the seasons he lead the league in rebounding). So I don't know where that comes from, but yes Rodman was spectacular with his rebounding and defense at the same time.

There's the question though whether his established reputation was what was garnering him those DPoY votes. it is generally suggested that when he became fanatically about rebounding he became less attentive elsewhere (for instance defending, particularly the perimeter).

In any case for me the greater issue for me is after '92 the issues with scoring (including passing out instead of putbacks) and intangiables. A full career of (what I consider) the better versions of Rodman would warrant my attention at this piont or perhaps earlier. As it is, the liability aspect costs him substantially, at least to me.

Still voting for Elvin Hayes. You guys already know my reasoning - top 20 defender of all-time

Care to expand on this. If true, with the value of his longevity (and in particular, the two combined) I imagine I'd vote him here (maybe earlier, though per my voting, I might also be voting/advocating Lanier). But the impression I have is of a good, but not exceptional defender.

The boxscore numbers are good (but then not per minute too far ahead of Lanier or too a lesser degree McAdoo). The accolades (obviously imperfect) suggest good but not exceptional (and against weak competition for forward spot in the mid-late 70s). The bits I've read again suggest good but nothing suggesting historic. Is it team level stuff and then seeing him as the cause?

Not suggesting I know more, just wanting to know more on Hayes advocates' beliefs and background on why they see an elite defender (and explaining where I am).

[Joao Saraiva]

I contest this, since his defense was a lot worse in his best volume rebounding seasons and he had health issues as well. Very good player, but his DPOYs did not coincide with his rebounding peak.

Best not to treat him as id he were an 18.7 rpg legitimate DPOY contender, you know?

Rodman averaged 18.7 RPG and was 2nd place in DPOY behind David Robinson only in 1992.

Rodman averaged 18.3 RPG the next season and was 4th in DPOY voting, behind Hakeem, Robinson and Michael Jordan.

Rodman averaged 16.8 RPG in 1995 and was 5th in DPOY, behind Hakeem, Robinson, Mutombo and Pippen.

Only in 97 Rodman was out of the top 10 defensive player voting... (on the seasons he lead the league in rebounding). So I don't know where that comes from, but yes Rodman was spectacular with his rebounding and defense at the same time.

There's the question though whether his established reputation was what was garnering him those DPoY votes. it is generally suggested that when he became fanatically about rebounding he became less attentive elsewhere (for instance defending, particularly the perimeter).

In any case for me the greater issue for me is after '92 the issues with scoring (including passing out instead of putbacks) and intangiables. A full career of (what I consider) the better versions of Rodman would warrant my attention at this piont or perhaps earlier. As it is, the liability aspect costs him substantially, at least to me.

Still voting for Elvin Hayes. You guys already know my reasoning - top 20 defender of all-time

Care to expand on this. If true, with the value of his longevity (and in particular, the two combined) I imagine I'd vote him here (maybe earlier, though per my voting, I might also be voting/advocating Lanier). But the impression I have is of a good, but not exceptional defender.

The boxscore numbers are good (but then not per minute too far ahead of Lanier or too a lesser degree McAdoo). The accolades (obviously imperfect) suggest good but not exceptional (and against weak competition for forward spot in the mid-late 70s). The bits I've read again suggest good but nothing suggesting historic. Is it team level stuff and then seeing him as the cause?

Not suggesting I know more, just wanting to know more on Hayes advocates' beliefs and background on why they see an elite defender (and explaining where I am).

Rodman's DRTG after winning those 2 DPOY awards suggest diferently.

He had 101 DRTG both years he won.
The next years: 99, 102, 100, 100, 98, 98, 97.

So DRTG doesn't suggest any diference.

Defensive box plus/minus suggest Rodman was even better after the two DPOYs.
DPOY years: 2.2 and 2.5
After DPOY: 3.4, 2.5, 3.0, 3.0, 3.5.

Even blocks and steals seem pretty much the same.

His defensive win shares best is in 1992, also his best rebounding season... and he lead the league in DWS that season.

Where is this narrative of Rodman not defending so well coming from?

[Owly]

Rodman averaged 18.7 RPG and was 2nd place in DPOY behind David Robinson only in 1992.

Rodman averaged 18.3 RPG the next season and was 4th in DPOY voting, behind Hakeem, Robinson and Michael Jordan.

Rodman averaged 16.8 RPG in 1995 and was 5th in DPOY, behind Hakeem, Robinson, Mutombo and Pippen.

Only in 97 Rodman was out of the top 10 defensive player voting... (on the seasons he lead the league in rebounding). So I don't know where that comes from, but yes Rodman was spectacular with his rebounding and defense at the same time.

There's the question though whether his established reputation was what was garnering him those DPoY votes. it is generally suggested that when he became fanatically about rebounding he became less attentive elsewhere (for instance defending, particularly the perimeter).

In any case for me the greater issue for me is after '92 the issues with scoring (including passing out instead of putbacks) and intangiables. A full career of (what I consider) the better versions of Rodman would warrant my attention at this piont or perhaps earlier. As it is, the liability aspect costs him substantially, at least to me.

Still voting for Elvin Hayes. You guys already know my reasoning - top 20 defender of all-time

Care to expand on this. If true, with the value of his longevity (and in particular, the two combined) I imagine I'd vote him here (maybe earlier, though per my voting, I might also be voting/advocating Lanier). But the impression I have is of a good, but not exceptional defender.

The boxscore numbers are good (but then not per minute too far ahead of Lanier or too a lesser degree McAdoo). The accolades (obviously imperfect) suggest good but not exceptional (and against weak competition for forward spot in the mid-late 70s). The bits I've read again suggest good but nothing suggesting historic. Is it team level stuff and then seeing him as the cause?

Not suggesting I know more, just wanting to know more on Hayes advocates' beliefs and background on why they see an elite defender (and explaining where I am).

Rodman's DRTG after winning those 2 DPOY awards suggest diferently.

He had 101 DRTG both years he won.
The next years: 99, 102, 100, 100, 98, 98, 97.

So DRTG doesn't suggest any diference.

Defensive box plus/minus suggest Rodman was even better after the two DPOYs.
DPOY years: 2.2 and 2.5
After DPOY: 3.4, 2.5, 3.0, 3.0, 3.5.

Even blocks and steals seem pretty much the same.

His defensive win shares best is in 1992, also his best rebounding season... and he lead the league in DWS that season.

Where is this narrative of Rodman not defending so well coming from?

As I've said this isn't my concern with many of the latter Rodman years (so my analysis here is rushed, sorry if there's any mistakes or confusion) but ... DRtg isn't a great defensive measure (in this particular instance, more so as here defense is seen as distinct from rebounding, but Drtg considers defensive rebounding a part of D, but also because of the data it uses, so far as I can tell it's just team level stuff plus boxscore - and the largest problems with the boxscore have always been with regard to D). Then you offer more boxscore stuff, again ones which don't separate defense from defensive rebounding. I think the intial argument against your post was strongly worded, but you can't claim D and rebounding separately and then say rebounding focused Rodman was better on D because boxscore metrics for defense including defensive rebounding say he got better. Fwiw if you buy into Defensive boxscore plus minus, then you presumably don't think he was ever better than the 4th best defender in the league.

As for sources for Rodman not defending as well as previously I'll give one instance

Defensive stock dropped a bit last season as he was "only" named to the second team, all-defense, after five consecutive years on the first team ... one media type offered that he "didn't put nearly as much emphasis on defense as he did on rebounding"

the next year

Rodman was selected to the All-Defensive first team (for the sixth time), a distinction, according to several sources, that was more a tribute to his rep than his actual on court effort ... "All he wants to do is rebound," claimed one close-at-hand observer. "There's no way he can rebound like he does and play the kind of defense he's supposed to be playing" ... So no he's not night-to-night with his defensive intensity.

By his own admission he refused to guard Olajuwon in '95, and based on what I've read he stayed inside and didn't cover Robert Horry on the perimeter, leading to a number of open threes or long shots.

I don't think anyone is contending he wasn't a good defender at that time (nor as I have said, is that a large concern on my radar - though the points immediately above relate to intangiables and teamwork, which as I've noted previously are significant concerns about latter model Rodman), but I think it is generally believed he was less effective and giving less effort in that area than before.

edit: I'll throw an extra one in

[on Spurs team D]
Rodman concentrates so much on rebounding these days that he isn't nearly the same defender he once was. That still makes him better than 90 percent of the league, but he frustrates the Spurs with his freelancing away from his man.

[and in the Rodman specific section]
First-team all-defense again, though he certainly isn't the same player of old in that area

[penbeast0]

...
Where is this narrative of Rodman not defending so well coming from?

From watching him. He got in the habit of slipping off his defender to rebound. It burned him badly with the Spurs (and led to several fights with David Robinson and Sean Elliot as well as Coach Hill); he was still doing it with the Bulls but had learned to wait a little more so it wasn't coming as obviously and offenses had a harder time catching him.

[trex_8063]

I'll cast my vote for Elvin Hayes again, for reasons covered previously.

My other front-runner at this point is Bob Lanier, but as I stated previously: the longevity gap is just too large. Too much added value.

If I can state it in a super-simple way....
Let's take a grading scale we're all familiar with, A+ thru F, where an overall average player (PER ~15, WS/48 ~.100) is graded C+/B-; B+ is a totally solid and deserving All-Star, A is serious MVP candidate, A+ is a GOAT-level peak:

I might grade Lanier in his prime as a roughly A- player; Hayes a B+ player (or at worst a B/B+ player). So it's not that I think Hayes was a better player (in general). But if you ask me who I rank higher: a guy who's going to give me A- level of play 37-38 mpg for 8 seasons (missing somewhat significant games some years).......or a guy who will give me B/B+ level of play 41-42 mpg for 12 seasons while basically never missing a game? I rank the second guy higher.

[Joao Saraiva]

I get it Rodman foccused more in rebounding, but I'm not buying that he wasn't positive on D. Even in the last years of his career he annoyed the hell out of me against Karl Malone, but I can't deny he played good defense.

Yes those years with the Spurs he actually had some issues with his teammates, but in his best rebounding seasons with the Pistons I don't think that's the case.

About the stats I displayed... well using defensive metrics is never easy, I was just trying to see if some stat actually indicated a big drop off from Dennis, and they didn't.

[Quotatious]

Care to expand on this. If true, with the value of his longevity (and in particular, the two combined) I imagine I'd vote him here (maybe earlier, though per my voting, I might also be voting/advocating Lanier). But the impression I have is of a good, but not exceptional defender.

The boxscore numbers are good (but then not per minute too far ahead of Lanier or too a lesser degree McAdoo). The accolades (obviously imperfect) suggest good but not exceptional (and against weak competition for forward spot in the mid-late 70s). The bits I've read again suggest good but nothing suggesting historic. Is it team level stuff and then seeing him as the cause?

Not suggesting I know more, just wanting to know more on Hayes advocates' beliefs and background on why they see an elite defender (and explaining where I am).

The only guys that were clearly better defensively than Hayes, seem to be: Russell, Hakeem, Robinson, Duncan, Garnett, Ewing, Ben Wallace, Mutombo, Howard, Mourning, Thurmond and Eaton. Possibly also Gilmore and Rodman. That would make Hayes the 15th greatest defender of all-time (#13 is his absolute ceiling), but I tentatively said "top 20", because I feel like there are probably 3 or 4 players who were very comparable to Elvin (Kareem is very close, and peak Walton was also better, but he has absolutely no case career-wise, and my list is based on career rather than peak). I probably wouldn't put any perimeter player ahead of him, but I guess that Pippen and Payton may have a case (although a rather weak one).

Hayes' teams were consistently very good/above average defensive squads in the league pretty much his entire career (even early in his career, when he was a volume scorer in San Diego/Houston - for example the Rockets improved from the third worst defense in the league in '68, to the third best, and improved by 22 wins, after Hayes joined the team), then in Washington he formed a great defensive tandem inside with Unseld (it's hard to separate their impact, but Elvin's defensive success as a Rocket makes me think that he was at least as important as Unseld for the Bullets defense - makes sense especially when you see that he had less offensive responsibilities in Washington).

I'm pretty impressed with his defense based on the full games that I've seen. Played hard basically on every possession, pretty good shotblocker and man defender, as well, due to his tenacity/competitiveness and physicality. Very athletic and mobile for a big, but also really strong. Excellent physical package to be a good defender.
He averaged 3 blocks per game in '73-'74, the first season when this stat was tracked, and he likely approached 4 blocks in his first few seasons, before that. Actually averaged 2+ blocks even in 1981 (and every Bullets season before that). I'm mentioning blocks because that's IMO a pretty important ingredient of a good interior defender (that's the reason why I have him over Unseld and Cowens, as far as defense is concerned).

[Owly]

I get it Rodman foccused more in rebounding, but I'm not buying that he wasn't positive on D. Even in the last years of his career he annoyed the hell out of me against Karl Malone, but I can't deny he played good defense.

Yes those years with the Spurs he actually had some issues with his teammates, but in his best rebounding seasons with the Pistons I don't think that's the case.

About the stats I displayed... well using defensive metrics is never easy, I was just trying to see if some stat actually indicated a big drop off from Dennis, and they didn't.

In '93 he had major professionalism issues. It's also the year he started accumulating techs. But in '92 a "rebounding year", he was still considered a good "pro" (an irritant to opponents for sure, but not internally disruptive etc). I think by the offseason of '92 there were subtle emerging indications of where he was heading (for instance talking about retiring).

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote for #58 - Elvin Hayes

- 16 year career
- 6x all NBA (3 1st, 3 2nd)
- 2x all defensive 2nd team
- 2 top 3 and 4 top 10 MVP finishes
- 1x NBA champion

Hayes had unbelievable durability: in his 16 seasons in the league, he played in 80+ games in every season, missing a total of 9 games.

REG SEASON 69-79
23.7 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 2 APG, 1 SPG, 2.5 BPG, 45% FG, 67% FT, 49% TS, .130 WS/48

PLAYOFFS 69-79
23.2 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 47% FG, 65.3% FT, 50.6% TS, .143 WS/48

While he wasn't a very efficient scorer in his prime, he wasn't abysmal, either. From 69-79, his TS% of 49% was slightly below the league avg of 50.6% during that span. He also shot better in the playoffs at a 50.6% TS clip. I will still take a player's ability to score at ~average efficiency over a player who can't score at all. He used his above average athleticism on both ends of the floor to his advantage, and helped the bullets to 3 finals runs including a championship in 78.

He also had a good case for finals MVP in 78. Per writer Dave Heeren:

Remember the Elvin Hayes incident? During the 1978 playoffs, the Championship series between Washington and Seattle reached the seventh game. Rick Barry, whose Golden State team had not qualified for the playoffs that year, was announcing that game and doing his usual candid job. He pointed out that one of the referees had a short temper and that he was especially apt to make hasty foul calls against Hayes, whom he did not like because Hayes did a lot of complaining about his calls. Hayes, who had been the series' outstanding player to that point, picked up his fourth foul during the third quarter and argued before going to the bench. The same official whistled him for his fifth and sixth fouls in quick succession after he reentered the game early in the fourth quarter. Replays showed that Hayes had not committed either of the fouls. On one of them there had been no physical contact at all.

But Hayes was out of the game, and a vindictive referee could have deprived Washington of a league championship becaus the Bullets were ahead by 8 or 10 points when Hayes went out. Paced by Bob Dandridge, the Bullets did hold on to win. But Hayes was deprived of an award he wanted and deserved. Since he had not played during the closing minutes of the championship game, the championship series MVP trophy was given to Wes Unseld. Unseld, then in the twilight of his career, had produced little offense for the Bullets and had been victimized by Seattle center Marvin Webster for 30 points, or a basket more or less, in the final game.

There's talk about attitude problems with hayes, but that largely seemed to be off the court-related, and that doesn't matter to me unless it affects on the court performance.

However, once he came the Bullets, he instantly seemed to mesh with the team, both on and off the court. Combining with Wes Unseld to anchor a potent double post offense that dominated on the boards, Hayes' arrival allowed coach Gene Shue to play an up-tempo, fast breaking three guard lineup that improved from 38 to 52 wins in just one year. The team never looked back and was a legitimate juggernaut for the rest of the 1970s.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/8/22 ... on-bullets

When hayes went to the bullets, he cut his shot attempts down to 18.3 per game from 75-79 vs. 69-74 where he took 23.4 per game. He adapted his game and became a major factor in helping them win the championship. His game did change for the better in washington. I wouldn’t call it lucky for hayes to end up next to unseld on the front line, because if he really was that rigid, it wouldn’t have worked out. It’s not uncommon for teams to make sense conceptually, but end up falling short. I think it’s clear that they mutually benefited from each other’s skill sets.

For those who pay attention to it, he ranked 56th in RPOY shares.

Looking at lanier, the divide for me is clearly durability. Lanier played in at least 76 games per season his first 5 seasons, yet missed nearly 20 games per season over the next 6. A little too glaring when looking at hayes the ironman. I’m certainly impressed with his overall production, though during his prime.

[penbeast0]

I get it Rodman foccused more in rebounding, but I'm not buying that he wasn't positive on D. Even in the last years of his career he annoyed the hell out of me against Karl Malone, but I can't deny he played good defense.

Yes those years with the Spurs he actually had some issues with his teammates, but in his best rebounding seasons with the Pistons I don't think that's the case.

About the stats I displayed... well using defensive metrics is never easy, I was just trying to see if some stat actually indicated a big drop off from Dennis, and they didn't.

Oh, he was still probably a positive on defense, even arguably with the Spurs (point per possession given up improved with Terry Cummings and even with J.R. Reid as the primary PFs but the defensive rebounding made a big difference) but it's not enough to say, he's a positive when defense is his main calling card or close to it. He was still strong, active, and good at both defending post position and defending out on the floor -- just not as consistently putting in effort as he did in Detroit and cheating off his man more.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Manu Ginobili

Considerably more impactful player than most here, did it for a long time with a great attitude.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Leaning towards Hayes right now but considering a few other guys.

Hayes
-Second leading scorer of the 70's (18,922 pts) to Kareem (22,141 pts)
-Good defender who was considered a quality rim protector
-12 seasons of 20/10 production
-Solid & consistent rebounder
-Iron man

Also cool little excerpt about Hayes from a book I have.

Although Elvin played 16 years in the NBA the most important game of his life was played at the University of Houston.

In 1968 Hayes's Houston team (with 17 straight wins) took on UCLA (with 47 straight wins).
With 28 seconds left Hayes sank two foul shots to unlock a 69-69 tie.

Overall Hayes scored 39 points to Kareem's 15. Hayes also out-rebounded Kareem.