#13 Highest Peak of All Time (Julius '76 wins)

[MisterWestside]

Based on the box score, they seem kind of even. Kobe scores on more volume, and appears to be a slightly better ball handler and creator (which is true). Erving appears to be a very good scorer in his own right, and is quite a bit more efficient than Kobe, even in Kobe's most efficient season (relative to league average). He's also a much better rebounder.

I would still give Kobe the edge on offense simply because he put up near-Erving like points per 100 possessions with more shot-creation. Estimated ortg/%poss/drtg numbers for Erving and Bryant (normalized for 2009 stat environment):

Erving
1976 120.0 29.1 101.0

Bryant
2006 115.4 36.5 107.1
2007 116.9 32.6 110.6
2008 115.4 30.6 105.1
2009 115.7 31.1 106.5

However, Erving was still superb on offense and was also better on defense, so it's close (overall, his 76 season >>> Kobe's 07, 08, and 09). I'd probably side with Erving if he has a decisive edge over Kobe in on-off numbers.

[GrangerDanger]

Woah. Ardee -- why Kobe over Wade? McGrady? Robinson? West? Barkley? I mean, I could list a lot of players but just the wings I mentioned -- why Kobe over Wade or Mac??

And I'd like to clarify something about Jerry West because apparently no one read it or they didn't understand it:

The Lakers were a SUB .500 team in 31 games without West in 1968 (no other significant injuries or roster flux), With West, they were better than an 8 SRS team with basically the best offense in basketball history to that history, and an offense that was maybe matched once in the next 20 years. Individually, West was nearly 10% better than league average on HIGH VOLUME...then he improved on that in the PS and was a major catalyst in pushing the Celtic team that just clipped the "shoulda been a dynasty" 76ers. (When West's ankle didn't hold for G6, the team was finally blown out...)

West also basically owns the record for In/Out value in surrounding seasons, constantly missing between 12 and 30 games and effecting his teams greatly whether they had prime Baylor, post injury Baylor, no Baylor, a bunch of guards, Wilt Chamberlain, different coaches, etc. This wasn't a fluke, this was a peak.

For me I'm having a battle of Wade v West at the 15 spot, but I'm also afraid these kinds of debates will fly by the wayside like KG-Duncan did or Kareem-anybody did. Hopefully they don't...

Why do you want people to vote for a season where West missed 31 games? That's a pretty big blackmark, and a star missing that amount of games can easily cost a less talented team to miss the playoffs.

[SDChargers#1]

Vote: '09 Kobe

The year Kobe put it all together. Played great in the regular season and turned it up a notch in the playoffs. Averaging 32/7/6 in the Finals.

[ardee]

Woah. Ardee -- why Kobe over Wade? McGrady? Robinson? West? Barkley? I mean, I could list a lot of players but just the wings I mentioned -- why Kobe over Wade or Mac??

And I'd like to clarify something about Jerry West because apparently no one read it or they didn't understand it:

The Lakers were a SUB .500 team in 31 games without West in 1968 (no other significant injuries or roster flux), With West, they were better than an 8 SRS team with basically the best offense in basketball history to that history, and an offense that was maybe matched once in the next 20 years. Individually, West was nearly 10% better than league average on HIGH VOLUME...then he improved on that in the PS and was a major catalyst in pushing the Celtic team that just clipped the "shoulda been a dynasty" 76ers. (When West's ankle didn't hold for G6, the team was finally blown out...)

West also basically owns the record for In/Out value in surrounding seasons, constantly missing between 12 and 30 games and effecting his teams greatly whether they had prime Baylor, post injury Baylor, no Baylor, a bunch of guards, Wilt Chamberlain, different coaches, etc. This wasn't a fluke, this was a peak.

For me I'm having a battle of Wade v West at the 15 spot, but I'm also afraid these kinds of debates will fly by the wayside like KG-Duncan did or Kareem-anybody did. Hopefully they don't...

Why do you want people to vote for a season where West missed 31 games? That's a pretty big blackmark, and a star missing that amount of games can easily cost a less talented team to miss the playoffs.

Obviously he's not propping '68. When he says "West also basically owns the record for In/Out value in surrounding seasons", I'm pretty sure he's propping one of '66, '69 and '70, and this '68 example was just to show the kind of impact a prime West was having.

[drza]

@ Kobe and Dr J voters,
why KB and Doc over Oscar?

According to in/out we have Robertson had bigger impact than both of them and box score numbers confirms his greatness - with great performance vs 1963 Celtics (one of 3 best defensive teams of all time) as the best example of his brilliance (+10 TS% with high volume vs such great defensive team!)

At the moment I'm definitely teetering towards Oscar.

[ardee]

The more I read the arguments, to be honest, I feel Oscar needs to be given more consideration.

I wish we could get a one day extension on this. I never thought it would be so hard to decide on voting after the top 10-12

Really stuck between Bryant, Erving and Oscar right now.

[Doctor MJ]

Why do you want people to vote for a season where West missed 31 games? That's a pretty big blackmark, and a star missing that amount of games can easily cost a less talented team to miss the playoffs.

Obviously he's not propping '68. When he says "West also basically owns the record for In/Out value in surrounding seasons", I'm pretty sure he's propping one of '66, '69 and '70, and this '68 example was just to show the kind of impact a prime West was having.

I wouldn't be so sure. A lot of posters are pretty lenient about missed time in the regular season.

[An Unbiased Fan]

The more I read the arguments, to be honest, I feel Oscar needs to be given more consideration.

I wish we could get a one day extension on this. I never thought it would be so hard to decide on voting after the top 10-12

Really stuck between Bryant, Erving and Oscar right now.

I frankly think Oscar's peak(1964 for me), could have been Top 5. He was #2 in scoring behind 64' Wilt, #2 in TS%, #1 in apg BY FAR, led Cincy to a great offense and a 4.43 SRS, while winning MVP over Russell/Wilt at their near peaks. I thought Bryant was borderline Top 10, and Doc around this #12-#14 area(though I would have had a few others who were already picked lower than they ended up).

I will say that the picks so far have been a bit center heavy.
PG - 1
SG - 1
SF - 2
PF - 2
C - 6

Which is to be expected since many prefer bigs over smalls. In fact, MJ is the only player under 6'8 picked. Apparently size matters(yes I know, lame joke).

[Doctor MJ]

@ Kobe and Dr J voters,
why KB and Doc over Oscar?

According to in/out we have Robertson had bigger impact than both of them and box score numbers confirms his greatness - with great performance vs 1963 Celtics (one of 3 best defensive teams of all time) as the best example of his brilliance (+10 TS% with high volume vs such great defensive team!)

Hmm, well first, generally speaking, yes I think Oscar AND West belong in the conversation. (Kinda weirded out that Oscar's got the clear edge over West in the mind's of some)

Why do I side with Doc? Well for one, it's strange you talk about Oscar's in/out edge when in the year's relating to Doc's peak he never missed a game. 4 years in a row, no games missed.

Of course, we did get to see him switch teams, and as mentioned, the Nets went from winning the ABA, to being far worse than anybody in the ABA...as one might expect when they lost their best offensive and defensive player - which is something I've never heard anyone claim of Oscar. Oscar of course being known for being on the most hideous defenses in history.

Re: Oscar vs West. I've tended to go Oscar career, West peak for a while. The reality for West is that he did have injury issues, and that he was paired with Baylor who he was a terrible fit with. On the other hand, the man was an explosive scorer like few in history, and his defense is legendary for a perimeter player with his super-long arms. (It's basically a given that if they had formally tracked the stat back then, West would be the all-time record holder in steals, and he might have the block record for perimeter players as well.)

I can actually see a pretty good case for West over Doc in principle here, but I have trouble championing anyone year because of the aforementioned issues.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Why do you want people to vote for a season where West missed 31 games? That's a pretty big blackmark, and a star missing that amount of games can easily cost a less talented team to miss the playoffs.

Obviously he's not propping '68. When he says "West also basically owns the record for In/Out value in surrounding seasons", I'm pretty sure he's propping one of '66, '69 and '70, and this '68 example was just to show the kind of impact a prime West was having.

I wouldn't be so sure. A lot of posters are pretty lenient about missed time in the regular season.

I due think this tends to give an unfair disadvantage to durable players. By rule, pretty much every team will suffer a great amount if an impactful player is out of the lineup. However, the degree to which they will miss the player is heavily dependent on the team's off/def system, roster depth/adaptability, SOS in games missed, coaching ability(some coaches suck at adjusting), and that player's utility to the team.

So when we look at with/without numbers, I'm a big believer that they reflect those factors a lot more than simply a player's impact. For example, the Suns were rather horrible without Nash during their SSOL days, but it stands to reason that much of this was due to the fact that they had no one who could duplicate his role in that system. If he had Lin as a backup over Barbosa, PHX wouldn't be as good, but they wouldn't completely suck either. Meanwhile, players who player nearly every game, really don't get this argument. Many times they play stretches where they're banged up, but don't get the benefit of a sample size big enough to show noteworthy with/without stats.

My personal peak for West would be 1966. I tend to have him in the #17-#20 range. West's strength to me was his overall career, but I tend to temper his numbers a bit because of the era he played in, and the overall quality of guards in the league. Many of whom who dribbled with one hand, and were slow/athletic. West's skillset/ability would translate very well to today's game, but that can't be said of 90%+ of his opponents on the perimeter back then. And unlike Oscar, West isn't dropping an apg that blows everyone away, or grabbing around 10 boards a game. I think 66' West vs 09'/10' Wade though would be a great debate.

[lorak]

Just for fun.

Robertson vs 1963 Celtics (3rd best defensive team of all time, -9.1 drtg relatively to league average) averaged: 33.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, ~8.5 APG and 58.1 TS% (+8.8 relatively to league average!)

Jerry West, against the same Celtics, averaged in the finals: 29. 5 PPG, ~7.0 RPG, ~5.3 APG and 52.2 TS% (+2.9)

Kobe against similar defense (2008 Celtics, -8.6 drtg) averaged in the finals: 25.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.0 APG and 50.5 TS% (-3.5!)

Dr J never in the playoffs faced defense close to that level.

Of course Oscar's and West's PPG, RPG and APG numbers are affected by pace so in that area Kobe doesn't look as bad in comparison with them as raw numbers suggest. But efficiency is different story. Bryant is much worse than Logo and Robertson and Oscar himself is also much better than West.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Just for fun.

Robertson vs 1963 Celtics (3rd best defensive team of all time, -9.1 drtg relatively to league average) averaged: 33.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, ~8.5 APG and 58.1 TS% (+8.8 relatively to league average!)

Jerry West, against the same Celtics, averaged in the finals: 29. 5 PPG, ~7.0 RPG, ~5.3 APG and 52.2 TS% (+2.9)

Kobe against similar defense (2008 Celtics, -8.6 drtg) averaged in the finals: 25.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.0 APG and 50.5 TS% (-3.5!)

Dr J never in the playoffs faced defense close to that level.

Of course Oscar's and West's PPG, RPG and APG numbers are affected by pace so in that area Kobe doesn't look as bad in comparison with them as raw numbers suggest. But efficiency is different story. Bryant is much worse than Logo and Robertson and Oscar himself is also much better than West.

To be fair, the quality of perimeter defense was strikingly different. I'm doubting that Cousy or Sam Jones would have bothered Kobe much either, and Hondo was a rookie. In the WCF Kobe did quite well against the Spurs and with Bowen guarding him. i would also point out that Baylor scored 33.8 ppg in the Finals too, which suggest that their strength didn't lie on the perimeter, but in the middle with Russell.

The tough thing about comparing the 63' Celtics to 08' Celtics is that team defensive schemes are far more advanced today.

[lorak]

Just for fun.

Robertson vs 1963 Celtics (3rd best defensive team of all time, -9.1 drtg relatively to league average) averaged: 33.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, ~8.5 APG and 58.1 TS% (+8.8 relatively to league average!)

Jerry West, against the same Celtics, averaged in the finals: 29. 5 PPG, ~7.0 RPG, ~5.3 APG and 52.2 TS% (+2.9)

Kobe against similar defense (2008 Celtics, -8.6 drtg) averaged in the finals: 25.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.0 APG and 50.5 TS% (-3.5!)

Dr J never in the playoffs faced defense close to that level.

Of course Oscar's and West's PPG, RPG and APG numbers are affected by pace so in that area Kobe doesn't look as bad in comparison with them as raw numbers suggest. But efficiency is different story. Bryant is much worse than Logo and Robertson and Oscar himself is also much better than West.

To be fair, the quality of perimeter defense was strikingly different. I'm doubting that Cousy or Sam Jones would have bothered Kobe much either, and Hondo was a rookie. In the WCF Kobe did quite well against the Spurs and with Bowen guarding him.

Spurs were very good defensively, but still much worse than Celtics (-5.7 drtg vs -8.6 and -9.1). And of course Bowen was 36 years old... Besides 1on1 matchups don't matter much (and who BTW was guarding Kobe during 2008 finals? Not Allen? defender worse than Sam Jones...)

Look, Kobe faced similar (to 08 and 63 Celtics) defense in 2004 playoffs. Against Spurs (-8.8 drtg) he averaged 26.3 PPG on 53.4 TS% (+1.8).

The tough thing about comparing the 63' Celtics to 08' Celtics is that team defensive schemes are far more advanced today.

And offensive schemes aren't too? So offensive players don't have advantage over players from 60s?

[ElGee]

Yes, I'm advocating for 68 West. If you haven't checked out my research on how injuries affect title odds, you should do so. In short, missing time barely matters. If you're worried about extreme outliers like "they won't make the PS on a crappy team," that's like saying "91 MJ won't win a title on the 12 Bobcats...so I don't want 91 MJ." Crappy teams aren't winning titles anyway, so with West or without him for 39 games it doesn't matter...

@Doc -- look at 1968 West more closely. Definitely the season to champion as his peak IMO. Just a ridiculous offensive season.

Here are West's In/Out runs:

1963 West In (54g) 5.5 SRS
1963 West Out (26g) -2.1 SRS

1967 West In (65g) 1.4 SRS
1967 West Out (16g) -5.4 SRS

1968 West In (51g) 8.1 SRS
1968 West Out (31g) -0.5 SRS

1969 West In (61g) 5.4 SRS
1969 West Out (21g) 0.7 SRS

1970 West In (90g) 3.8 SRS *including PS
1970 West Out (8g) -8.6 SRS

1970 West In w Baylor In (36g) 2.1 SRS *including PS
1970 West In w Baylor and Wilt In (29g) 3.9 SRS

1971 West In (69g) 5.1 SRS
1971 West Out (13g) -7.2 SRS
1971 West Out (25g) -1.9 SRS *including PS

1973 West In (69g) 9.8 SRS
1973 West Out (13g) -1.0 SRS

This is a guy knocking on the door of Nash, Walton, LeBron, Thurmond, super-value to his team. There's a lot that looks impressive there, consistently. To me, I'm left trying to untangle the following:

-how did West's teams perform at their best?
-how did West's teams perform without him (if available)
-how did West's teams look ITO of roster, health and coaching?
-how did West's individual statistics look in conjunction with that information?

As you can see, the 1968 team was RIDICULOUS with West in the lineup. This was with someone not regarded as a coaching genius, with good lineup continuity around him, and an offensive slant (eg Clark, Goodrich, Baylor) and it may have, based on plausible explanations, produced an offensive level that was rarely matched until the 3-point era. This is huge huge stuff.

Then you look at what West did individually. He set a career high in FG% that he'd never come close to (a weird drop in FT% that year). This led to a career and league-best 59% TS%, 9.2% better than league average! In the postseason, he averaged a career-best 59.6% TS% on 31-5.4-.5.5 and a career-best 52.7% FG%.

In the Finals against Boston (-4.9 est DRtg), he had 35 in G2 to steal serve from the Celtics. 33 in G3, 38 in a G4 win to even the series. The Lakers thought an 8-day layoff before game 1 cost them the game, and then lost G5 in Boston in OT 120-117...West had 35 more in the game. West sprained his ankle at the end of G4 and it caught up to him in G6, and without an effective West (8-19 FG), the Lakers were blown out in the first half.

To me, ALL the evidence is pointing to 1968 basically.

[lorak]

And because I think Oscar has no chance to win this time, my vote goes to: Dr J '76 (who is next on my list after Robertson)

[ardee]

Yes, I'm advocating for 68 West. If you haven't checked out my research on how injuries affect title odds, you should do so. In short, missing time barely matters. If you're worried about extreme outliers like "they won't make the PS on a crappy team," that's like saying "91 MJ won't win a title on the 12 Bobcats...so I don't want 91 MJ." Crappy teams aren't winning titles anyway, so with West or without him for 39 games it doesn't matter...

@Doc -- look at 1968 West more closely. Definitely the season to champion as his peak IMO. Just a ridiculous offensive season.

Here are West's In/Out runs:

1963 West In (54g) 5.5 SRS
1963 West Out (26g) -2.1 SRS

1967 West In (65g) 1.4 SRS
1967 West Out (16g) -5.4 SRS

1968 West In (51g) 8.1 SRS
1968 West Out (31g) -0.5 SRS

1969 West In (61g) 5.4 SRS
1969 West Out (21g) 0.7 SRS

1970 West In (90g) 3.8 SRS *including PS
1970 West Out (8g) -8.6 SRS

1970 West In w Baylor In (36g) 2.1 SRS *including PS
1970 West In w Baylor and Wilt In (29g) 3.9 SRS

1971 West In (69g) 5.1 SRS
1971 West Out (13g) -7.2 SRS
1971 West Out (25g) -1.9 SRS *including PS

1973 West In (69g) 9.8 SRS
1973 West Out (13g) -1.0 SRS

This is a guy knocking on the door of Nash, Walton, LeBron, Thurmond, super-value to his team. There's a lot that looks impressive there, consistently. To me, I'm left trying to untangle the following:

-how did West's teams perform at their best?
-how did West's teams perform without him (if available)
-how did West's teams look ITO of roster, health and coaching?
-how did West's individual statistics look in conjunction with that information?

As you can see, the 1968 team was RIDICULOUS with West in the lineup. This was with someone not regarded as a coaching genius, with good lineup continuity around him, and an offensive slant (eg Clark, Goodrich, Baylor) and it may have, based on plausible explanations, produced an offensive level that was rarely matched until the 3-point era. This is huge huge stuff.

Then you look at what West did individually. He set a career high in FG% that he'd never come close to (a weird drop in FT% that year). This led to a career and league-best 59% TS%, 9.2% better than league average! In the postseason, he averaged a career-best 59.6% TS% on 31-5.4-.5.5 and a career-best 52.7% FG%.

In the Finals against Boston (-4.9 est DRtg), he had 35 in G2 to steal serve from the Celtics. 33 in G3, 38 in a G4 win to even the series. The Lakers thought an 8-day layoff before game 1 cost them the game, and then lost G5 in Boston in OT 120-117...West had 35 more in the game. West sprained his ankle at the end of G4 and it caught up to him in G6, and without an effective West (8-19 FG), the Lakers were blown out in the first half.

To me, ALL the evidence is pointing to 1968 basically.

ElGee, would like to see your thoughts on my breakdown of all the players you mentioned vs. Kobe. I may yet decide to switch to Erving or Oscar if someone convinces me.

[fatal9]

Wade's post-ASG stretch in '09 was unreal. Boxscore stats looking '89 Jordan-ish, posted 33.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 8.3 apg, 2.3 apg, 1.2 bpg on 61.1 TS% (37 3PT%). He also had a huge drop in his turnover rate that year (lowest tov% of his career). This was Wade at his athletic peak with a great midrange game (slightly below '06 and '07 though) and also had the first consistent three point shooting stretch of his career when he began taking them in second half of season. But why were the Heat the 22nd ranked offense at the end of the season with a perimeter superstar performing at his level? I'm not expecting big things here but not bottom feeder offense either. That's one question about 2009. As has been pointed out though, we can't just use team offense to say Kobe was better offensively when he was playing in one of the most successful offensive systems ever under one of the GOAT coaches while Wade was on a new look roster with a rookie coach and a rookie PG.

Regarding the playoffs, he did have some sort of an injury, forgot what it was hip, back or something. But he limited his own effectiveness in that series by forgetting that he's maybe the best slashing scorer ever at his position, but decided to shoot threes instead. Wade was shooting way too many of them in the series. He took 50 threes in the series. 50. Almost as many FTA as 3PA. That doesn't sound like Wade's game to me, and is probably the reason he had such an erratic series when normally a healthy Wade is a very consistent playoff performer. I don't know if it was the injury, the type of defense being played on him or if he was feeling a little too confident after having the most consistent 3 pt shooting stretch of his career but he didn't play a smart series offensively. Still had couple of nice moments though (game 2, 3, 6) but he made his scoring game a little bit too contingent on three point shooting.

So certain things about 2009 make me reconsider and make me want to side with '06, but when you factor in things like improved skills, experience, physical and mental maturity I think you have to stick with 2009 (or 2010 for that matter but I don't see his midrange game as good as '09). The Heat did fall off without Shaq in '06 (just 10-13 when he didn't play, despite having one of the best backups Cs in the league in Mourning). I'm also never comfortable saying that a player peaked before 25 (Wade was 23/24 in '06), it's very unlikely to me unless a career altering injury happens. Wade did have a major injury but he came back more explosive than ever in '09.

In general, the thing I like with Wade over Kobe is that he's a more consistent and active defender (I have '09 or '10 as Wade's best defensive year, '08 as best defensive year of #24 version of Kobe). Secondly, I just feel pre-2011 Wade is the one I want more in the playoffs against good/great defensive teams. I've seen him have success against good/great defenses so much more consistently than Kobe. We have seen him torch great defensive teams (known for stopping perimeter superstars) in the playoffs like the Celtics, Pistons in a way I can't see Kobe doing. Wade is more dynamic/quick and averages more assists, but despite that I wouldn't say he was a better facilitator than 2008 Kobe (who is a little bit more patient in his approach). I would say I like Wade's approach offensively more than Kobe's as his game naturally has a better balance . But overall, these are two guys who at their peak I find really difficult to separate.

[ElGee]

I'll try when I get around to it, as we certainly have a fresh crop of guy to be analyzed. I'll say my tentative list looks like this:

13 Erving
14 Robinson (because of his defense and high portability)
15 Wade (I like the post-shoulder injury Wade bc of his defense -- a player I could see moving up OR down as his offensive portability draws questions to me)
16 West
17 Oscar (really comfortable with West above him)
18 Barkley
19 K. Malone
20 Bryant

So, I think Karl Malone's peak v Kobe's peak has always been a great debate. And we haven't even mentioned Karl yet in this project I believe so clearly there's a lot of discussion. Then you have the general Kobe-Wade-McGrady 2000's Wing War which people can add a lot more color to (it's a hard debate and as of right I don't begrudge any ordering of those players).

So it's not crazy to, for instance, vote Kobe 14th...but as you can see I have another pack of guys lumped very closely and I think the project will suffer if we miss a lot of these comparisons. (If you're wondering, I have ALL these guys in the +6 to +6.5 impact range, so I'm splitting hairs here with portability, health, defensive effort, variance, whatever...and I'd like to hear other's thoughts on those players and these issues).

[fatal9]

I think '66 could be a nice year to pick for West. Not much point in looking at his in/out stats because he played 79 games (this is a good thing). Second most efficient year scoring wise though his shot making seems better in other years. 34/6/6 on 58 TS% in the playoffs. He's around that age when most guys peak (27). The '66 team also put up the third best SRS of the 60s Lakers, which is even more impressive when you consider that Elgin Baylor had a HUGE drop off that year after his knee injury in the '65 playoffs (if you look at Baylor's production, '66 was the only year he didn't manage to have a PER over 20 from '58-'70, there is a clear decline in '66 Baylor even in comparison to the late 60s version of himself). So this makes me think while we don't have in/out impact for that year, it could have been just as impressive.

31 missed games in '68 is a lot though. On the wrong team that's going to result in missing the playoffs. Even on a good championship level team, missing 31 games isn't good for chemistry/continuity. His impact appears to be outstanding that year and his scoring efficiency for whatever reason was on another level in both the RS and playoffs. But again, this is the most games Jerry West has ever missed in his career (not counting retirement year). I guess a similar situation for people to think of it would be like Wade's '07 season but with a strong healthy playoff run to the finals.

[nikomCH]

(If you're wondering, I have ALL these guys in the +6 to +6.5 impact range,

I've seen quite a few people reference this "stat" saying peak MJ was like a +8.5 player and that if you replaced him with a +7 player then the team would lose somewhere around 1.5 SRS points so you can measure their impact that way. What exactly is that number referring to and where is it derived from?