Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
drza,
Holy Toledo thats a lot to digest. Give me some time to reread all that several times and to attempt to digest it. I already know I have a couple questions for you but I need more time because Im a bit overwhelmed atm. Just wanted to let you know quickly that again I appreciate all the work you put into that.
Holy Toledo thats a lot to digest. Give me some time to reread all that several times and to attempt to digest it. I already know I have a couple questions for you but I need more time because Im a bit overwhelmed atm. Just wanted to let you know quickly that again I appreciate all the work you put into that.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
drza,
to help me with some context can you provide me with your scource for this statistical information? Obv I want to check and see how Dirk specifically compares but also other strong defenders from this generation. Those stats all look really impressive but its hard for me to accurately weight them without some additional perspective. I dont want to minimize his impact so I need some basis for comparison.
Those are really impressive stats on KG's impact defensively. Again I dont have a way in my mind to fully put that into context yet but until I do Im certainly going to give him the benefit of the doubt because I dont think you would post all of that if it wasnt of the dominant variety. Excellent work.
Interesting point about the one time these 2 all-time greats met in the PS: Minny actually began that series trying the same tactic the Heat tried in the 2011 finals--they put their best defender on the secondary scorer-- in this case Garnett started the series guarding Finley. This didnt really work out very well and they eventually abandoned it. Dallas also inserted Eddie Najera into the starting lineup as their answer to KG. Sadly the one time these 2 met in the PS they didnt actually guard each other for large portions of the series. Individually KG was great as was Dirk. I agree with ur contention that Dirk,Nash,Finely,NVE was just too much firepower for Minny to deal with. I do think Dirk was the best player in that series but Im fine with calling it basically a wash. Its certainly not a meaningful sample size either way.
Ive been accused (not unfairly) of minimizing KG's postseason defensive impact. But lets talk about Dirk at the other end. I feel like the same thing is happening the other direction itt from KG supporters. I hear a lot of well Dirk is better at scoring but thats it. Like the edge is somehow insignificant. The edge is enormous offensively just like KG has the enormous edge defensively.
I looked through the top 20 career PS scorers. MJ is obviously the GOAT here and it isnt close. But after him Dirk is right up there in the conversation with KAJ,Shaq,Dream, and perhaps West. And clearly better than guys like Kobe,Iverson,Baylor,Petit,Wade, Mailman. He is a top 5 PS scorer of all time and I think a realistic argument can be made that he is the 2nd best scorer ever in the playoffs. His efficiency destroys most of the other contenders and his versitility it could be argued gives him the edge over the elite centers because of his uncanny ability at 7 feet to get his own shots at any time.
Dirk is also a top 10 all time playoff FT shooter. Having a guy who makes 90% is really helpful when he draws 9FTA (2x as many as KG fyi) and having him to help you seal wins at the end of games.
And if we want to talk about spectular individual years. Dirk's 2011 run of dominant and clutch scoring against defenses ranked in order 14th, 6th, 11th and 5th matches up more than favorably with KG's 08 PS performance. 28/8/61% TS And how many game winning shots did Dirk hit in the PS? He led a complete dismanting of the 2-time defending champs who had 3 of the 4 best players. Then he led his veteran squad past a not quite ready OKC team but again 3 of the 4 best players were on the other side. And again in the finals where 3 of the 4 best players were on the other side and where many people would have suggested at the start of the playoffs the 2 best players were on the other team. And in those tightly contested finals Dirk came up big in the 4th quarters time after time. Never scoring fewer than 8 and the difference between him and Lebron in the 4th quarters decided the series. The man is seriously clutch Thats a stupid good performance against elite players. And statistically he was even more impressive in 2006.
Bonus Dirk clutchness nugget: Shots taken in the last minute of the game to tie or take the lead since 2000: of the ten players with the most attempts the 2nd highest percentage is Lebron at 36.4%. Dirk shoots 44.0%.
I honestly dont know how to fairly sort out which to weight more heavily--KG's defensive brilliance combined with being a very good offensive player or Dirk's offensive brilliance combined with being an adequate defender. You have already shown me evidence suggesting that team results arent a fair way of sorting this. And I dont think either of us believe stats tell the complete picture.
In going back and forth you about have me convinced that Dirk is not a better individual performer than KG. I still maintain Dirk is easier to build around tho.
to help me with some context can you provide me with your scource for this statistical information? Obv I want to check and see how Dirk specifically compares but also other strong defenders from this generation. Those stats all look really impressive but its hard for me to accurately weight them without some additional perspective. I dont want to minimize his impact so I need some basis for comparison.
Those are really impressive stats on KG's impact defensively. Again I dont have a way in my mind to fully put that into context yet but until I do Im certainly going to give him the benefit of the doubt because I dont think you would post all of that if it wasnt of the dominant variety. Excellent work.
Interesting point about the one time these 2 all-time greats met in the PS: Minny actually began that series trying the same tactic the Heat tried in the 2011 finals--they put their best defender on the secondary scorer-- in this case Garnett started the series guarding Finley. This didnt really work out very well and they eventually abandoned it. Dallas also inserted Eddie Najera into the starting lineup as their answer to KG. Sadly the one time these 2 met in the PS they didnt actually guard each other for large portions of the series. Individually KG was great as was Dirk. I agree with ur contention that Dirk,Nash,Finely,NVE was just too much firepower for Minny to deal with. I do think Dirk was the best player in that series but Im fine with calling it basically a wash. Its certainly not a meaningful sample size either way.
Ive been accused (not unfairly) of minimizing KG's postseason defensive impact. But lets talk about Dirk at the other end. I feel like the same thing is happening the other direction itt from KG supporters. I hear a lot of well Dirk is better at scoring but thats it. Like the edge is somehow insignificant. The edge is enormous offensively just like KG has the enormous edge defensively.
I looked through the top 20 career PS scorers. MJ is obviously the GOAT here and it isnt close. But after him Dirk is right up there in the conversation with KAJ,Shaq,Dream, and perhaps West. And clearly better than guys like Kobe,Iverson,Baylor,Petit,Wade, Mailman. He is a top 5 PS scorer of all time and I think a realistic argument can be made that he is the 2nd best scorer ever in the playoffs. His efficiency destroys most of the other contenders and his versitility it could be argued gives him the edge over the elite centers because of his uncanny ability at 7 feet to get his own shots at any time.
Dirk is also a top 10 all time playoff FT shooter. Having a guy who makes 90% is really helpful when he draws 9FTA (2x as many as KG fyi) and having him to help you seal wins at the end of games.
And if we want to talk about spectular individual years. Dirk's 2011 run of dominant and clutch scoring against defenses ranked in order 14th, 6th, 11th and 5th matches up more than favorably with KG's 08 PS performance. 28/8/61% TS And how many game winning shots did Dirk hit in the PS? He led a complete dismanting of the 2-time defending champs who had 3 of the 4 best players. Then he led his veteran squad past a not quite ready OKC team but again 3 of the 4 best players were on the other side. And again in the finals where 3 of the 4 best players were on the other side and where many people would have suggested at the start of the playoffs the 2 best players were on the other team. And in those tightly contested finals Dirk came up big in the 4th quarters time after time. Never scoring fewer than 8 and the difference between him and Lebron in the 4th quarters decided the series. The man is seriously clutch Thats a stupid good performance against elite players. And statistically he was even more impressive in 2006.
Bonus Dirk clutchness nugget: Shots taken in the last minute of the game to tie or take the lead since 2000: of the ten players with the most attempts the 2nd highest percentage is Lebron at 36.4%. Dirk shoots 44.0%.
I honestly dont know how to fairly sort out which to weight more heavily--KG's defensive brilliance combined with being a very good offensive player or Dirk's offensive brilliance combined with being an adequate defender. You have already shown me evidence suggesting that team results arent a fair way of sorting this. And I dont think either of us believe stats tell the complete picture.
In going back and forth you about have me convinced that Dirk is not a better individual performer than KG. I still maintain Dirk is easier to build around tho.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
drza wrote:We know that Garnett's TS% drops a bit in the postseason and that he isn't the volume scorer that some of these all-time players are.
OK, right off of the bat I want to address this.
Garnett's TS% drops from a career 54.9% in the RS to 52.3% in the PS. That's not "a bit," that's 2.6%. That's a pretty significant drop. Now, some of that includes his very early twenties, but given that he was typically playing 4 games and then being done, it doesn't harm his overall average that much and he's still only had two postseason runs with the Celtics where he was very close to league average TS%. In the title run, he was 0.2% above league average and this past season, he was actually +1.4% over league average. Garnett has been a very, very weak scorer in the playoffs through the majority of his career at all stages thereof... and he's posted an ORTG of 110+ only three times in the PS (97, 01, 08).
Next, I want to point out that on 4-game samples during which he's playing 41-44 mpg, the data is going to be incredibly noisy, so those APM studies are going to have some significant issues. You note this somewhere around the 02-04 range, though, so that's good.
You start to argue quality of teams faced, and that's fine: I think most sensible posters realize that with crap teams, KG was dragging them into the playoffs only to get spanked... usually by the Spurs. He had little hope to beat a lot of the teams he faced and no one should really penalize him for that too harshly. But when you're trying to fashion an argument about who is the best postseason performer of the generation and you take an already second-tier scoring threat and have him decline as much as he did, well, that's less effective. His 01 run was pretty amazing, I mean he rocked a 7.5% TOV (!!!) while doing the 21/12/4 thing on ~ 57% TS. You can make a single-series claim about his efficacy there against the Spurs (who were the best defense in the league that year), but I'm not really seeing how him doing that is a ton better than what Dirk did against them in 2006.
We are, however, getting back to the root of the debate I was trying to generate before, about KG's defensive efficacy versus Dirk's scoring.
The APM data is very interesting, and squares well with his impact (primarily as a defender)... but at the same time, there is a data point that you're excluding, right? From 99-03, KG won 5 games in the postseason, then won 10 in the deep run in 04 and didn't return to the playoffs with the Wolves. Now context. Injuries, abysmal management (Cassell for Marko Jaric? REALLY? JOE SMITH!! YOU BASTARDS! and so forth), but if you're looking at his contributions and you see how one-sided KG's were angling towards the defensive element, then it starts to become an issue. You can't just defend your opponent; in a game of basketball, you can't shut an opponent down, you need to score as well. From everything I've seen, there IS a slight, small bias towards offensive value (at least where star players are concerned) that's not generated via narrative alone. Especially at the paces at which the Wolves and the Spurs/Blazers/etc were playing in the early 00s, the notion that "each possession counts" isn't just a truism, it's a major point of contention.
So I offer a counter-point. Since the number of games isn't that bad, let's look at KG's Minny postseason career and see how it played out from 99-04.
99 versus the eventual-champion Spurs.
Hard to REALLY ream him for this one because they had Duncan and Robinson, but that kind of casually back-slides KG's rep away from where you're going. In any case, he opened up with 21 points on 54.3% TS (9/18 FG, 3/3 FT), 8 boards, 1 assist, 5 blocks, 4 fouls and 5 turnovers. They lost, of course, and for the moment, we'll pretend as if KG's performance comes in isolation so that I don't have to spend 8 years discussing what his teammates did or didn't do in this post. We'll acknowledge their role tacitly. Here we're seeing, though, that Garnett was coughing it up something fierce. 20.6% TOV against 31% USG, not his best game. Game 2, they win. 23 points on 22 shots (11/22 FG, 1/2 FT). 50.3% TS, but there, I think that's a bit misleading to call that a "bad" performance. Certainly not dominant, and this time he brought the rebounding, then added 6 assists to 4 turnovers. Again, not really pushing hard on offense, and given that he didn't have any other scorers, the Wolves would have likely been better off if he'd been a little less effective on D and a little more effective on offense, since everyone and their mom knew that he was basically the only major scorer on that squad, the only real threat. Games 3 and 4, they lost of course. 9/19, 5/6 for 23 points, 12 boards, 2 AST / 3 TOV. Then here's the killer. Game 4 was a 7-point loss and he shot 6/20 FG and 8/12 at the line. Realistically, he left 7-9 points on the board from what he'd have posted just making 45% FG and around 80% FT, very normal numbers for him. This is a single-game, single-series performance at the beginning of his All-NBA era (and he's far from alone in having poor performances), but as we start to watch him coming up short in key moments and close games like that, it begins to detract from the overall picture you're painting of the "most dominant postseason performer from 99-08" kind of thing, right? That right there is a game that kind of mirrors Dirk against the Warriors.
2000, against Portland:
Opens up with a 6/20 performance, no FTAs. 12/10/11 triple-double, but the triple-double belies his overall performance. With 26.2% usage and him shooting 30% FG without any FTAs, that's a rough, rough performance. And it was a 3-point loss. The not-Garnett Wolves shot 53% FG. Meantime, Sheed played well: didn't shoot much, but was 6/10 for 15 points (3/3 FT).
Game 2. 25/10/5, 4 TOV, 4 PF. 50% FG, 7/10 FT, 56.4% TS against 31.4% USG. Really, a good game. 4-point loss. Were he a more dominant scorer, that might have mattered, but Sealy, Wally Z and Sam Mitchell were rough enough that I'll actually post that they shot a combined 7/17. Sheed was crap. So, this one stands as a contrast to the first.
Game 3. A win. Middling TS (52.3%), but actually his best offensive game of the series. 11/22 FG and 1/1 from downtown (heh), he brought the rebounding and passing from the first game (13 boards, 10 assists, 2 turnovers). He played his mind out and his teammates actually supported him a lot (Brandon was 10/16 for 28 points that night).
Game 4. Elimination game #2 in this series and KG goes for a 5/20. 1/2 3P, 6/6 FT. 17 points on 37.5% TS. 10 boards, 9 assists, 3 turnovers. But WOW was he ever bad shooting that night, and that's his second major stinker in the series and his third over two consecutive postseason matchups (e.g. his 3rd in 8 games).
2001 vs SAS:
25/13/6Game 1. , 55.8% TS, really a good game overall. Only 1 turnover, 50% FG, 70% FT (10 FTA), just looking really good. It was a loss, but it can hardly be blamed on KG.
Game 2. Welcome to Crapsville, population, YOU. 5/13 FG, but 8/8 FT gives him a 54.5% TS. 12 boards, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 112 ORTG. Another rough shooting night for him, though, and he played only 32 minutes because of some foul trouble, but mainly because it was garbage time after 3. The Wolves shot something stupid like a tenth of a percent off of their franchise-worst in the playoffs and they committed 20 turnovers. It was embarrassing. KG was part of a team-wide failure that game. This is, I believe, the year after Sealy was killed and right around Joe Smith time.
Game 3, token win time. 22/8/4, 1 TOV. 8/10 FT. 59.8% TS. KG did a great job of getting to the line in this series, it was very atypical for him. This was a great game from Garnett though, and they won.
Game 4, elimination game. 6/13 shooting, 19/15/5, 2 turnovers, 5 fouls, 7/8 FT for 57.5% TS but they were crushed, a 13-point loss. Duncan shot terribly (8/23) and D-Rob had 4 fouls by the 3rd. Wolves were down 8 after 3, but down only 1 at halftime.
2002, 3-game sweep by Dallas.
Game 1. 6/18 FG, 6/6 FT, 46% TS. 21 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 turnovers. Dirk put 30/15 on the Wolves, shooting 10/19 from the field and 9/10 at the line.
Game 2. PHENOMENAL game from Garnett. 9/19 FG, 13/17 at the line (12-point loss), 18 boards and 4 assists. 58.5% TS. Absolutely fantastic. Wasn't enough, but it's hard to blame him. 25 a piece from Billups and Wally Z (both shooting over 52%, nearly 53% FG). 31/15 from Dirk (42.9% FG, 9/10 FT, 4 steals).
Game 3, elimination time. 9/19 FG, 4/9 FT in a 13-point loss. 47.4% TS. 17 boards, 5 assists, 6 turnovers, 5 fouls. Another weak game at the point of elimination. Minny won the 2nd and 4th quarters, but they permitted Dallas to score 40 first-quarter points and started the game in a 12-point hole from which they never recovered. Down by 10 at the half, they lost the 3rd by 8 points and then won the 4th by 5. Dirk dropped 39/17 on 11/17 FG, 14/16 FT, crushing the Wolves like a bug.
For the record, KG was 3/10 from the field in the second half, hitting his first 2 shots and then going 1/8 after that. He had 4 offensive boards, split a pair of FTs, assisted Wally Z on a 3 and a 21-footer and had a turnover. That was his contribution during the second half of the elimination game. He had a bunch of defensive boards as well, but I wasn't logging those, I was looking at offensive performance, since we've already established that he's been a very high-impact defender. But in an elimination game, to disappear that way in the second half (which raises those old ghosts that people spoke of at the time of KG being a choker in the playoffs) is... not good. And what we're seeing here is the reason that narrative came about, because this isn't the first or second bad game we've seen from him in this stretch as far as poor performance in an elimination game, and over a comparatively small sample of games, we've seen him stinking it up on offense quite a lot... more than once in a game winnable had he performed at a less-than-terrible level. It does tell us that his defense and rebounding were THAT AWESOME, though, to continually show the kind of impact they did... and it also explains that his teammates were really not helping him out a ton on the defensive end at all, as it happens. At times, Brandon (prior to his injury) and Billups (prior to him being moved) were contributors, but it's still clear that they were outmatched. Dirk's Mavs were coming at the Wolves with him, Finley, Nash and Van Exel, right? Nash was 3/9 under the arc in Game 3... but 3/7 from downtown, 10/10 at the line and had 11 assists. Billups was 5/16 and 4/7 at the line. Brandon was gone. Wally Z was 5/12 (though 9/10 at the line). Anthony Peeler was 4/7 from 3 off of the bench (but 2/6 under the arc). Garnett's terrible TS% mostly extends from 4/9 FT shooting and the 3 or 4 points he left on the board are significant but yeah, the biggest issue is how poorly he played in the second half. In his defense, the common motif of saying he's nothing but a jump shooter is at least a little harsh on his rep, because of the 10 shots he took, only one was from farther than 8 feet. Some of those were his favored turn-over-right-shoulder fades from the left block, but he got a four-footer and two shots off of offensive rebounds, one of which drew those 2 FTAs. He just hit nothing when it mattered.
OK, ramble over.
2003 vs Lakers. This is a 6-game series, the longest KG has played in the PS to this point in his career. Two wins!
Game 1. 11/21 FG, 1/4 FT. 14 boards, 7 assists, 2 turnovers, great D. 46 minutes played, loss. 19-point blowout, as it happens. There really wasn't a lot of hope for them to win this series; while the Lakers didn't repeat as champions, it was still the Shaq/Kobe Lakers coming off of their third straight title. Shaq had 32/10 and Kobe carved them up for 39. The Wolves flatly didn't have anyone who could defend either of those guys and Flip Saunders has never been a particularly good defensive coach, so there was no strong scheme in place, either. It was "here's hoping KG is magic!" I mean, they were putting Szczerbiak on Kobe, that's just asking for trouble. They were buried after the first, down 16 points. They never finished a quarter closer than 12 points.
Game 2. Explosion. 15/21 shooting, 4/6 at the line, 20 boards, 7 assists, 2 turnovers, 35 points. I don't even need to post the TS, you know it's insane. Remarkable game, and a win. Just about what was needed from him in order to beat this team. 37 points and 10 assists from Troy Hudson (!!!!!!) certainly helped, though. They were up by 13 at the half and then by 22 after an opening tear in the 3rd.
Game 3. 33/14/4, 2 steals, 4 blocks, 4 turnovers and 6 fouls. 15/31 shooting, one of the most aggressive performances of Garnett's entire career in a 4-point OT win. 27 points from Hudson. One of those "questionable officiating" nights, heh. 3 fouls in 3 minutes in the 4th for Garnett, then fouled out in the opening part of OT. Kobe got a four-point play when Wally Z apparently fouled him without touching him. Then there was that thing with Rick Fox where Wally "stepped out of bounds" as Rick grabbed his jersey, which was unique. They won, though, so it was OK.
4th quarter KG? 4 boards (2 offensive), an assist at the rim and a turnover on an offensive foul. He was 3/8 FG and 2/2 FT for 8 points. He took one shot inside of 10 feet and 4 shots from 14+ feet. Lots and lots of jumpers. Got blocked by Shaq the one time he shot around the rim.
Game 4. 10/21 FG, 1/3 3PA, 7/9 FTA. 18 boards, 5 assists, 4 turnovers. 56.1% TS in a 5-point loss. Solid performance. 34/23 from Shaq didn't help. Kobe shot like crap (7/25) but got to the line at will (16/17 FT). With about 2 minutes left in the third, the Wolves were up by 11 but then the Lakers went on an 8-0 run to close the quarter and Kobe hit a 3 early in the 4th to tie it. About halfway through the fourth, the Wolves were up by 5, but L.A. reeled off another 8-0 run. Stayed close down the wire; Shaq got an OREB off of a Kobe miss to give L.A. a 3-point lead with 19 seconds remaining... and KG missed both free throws when he was fouled. Kobe hit 2 FTs, Garnett stuck a jumper. Shaq had more offensive boards than the Timberwolves. The Lakers had 18 offensive boards and scored 29 points off of them.
Second half play from Garnett.
He had 3 assists and a turnover (Kobe stripped him) in the 3rd. He TECHNICALLY shot 1/7, but that includes a 43-foot heave at the buzzer. He was really 1/6, which is still terrible, missing his last 5 (or 6, counting the 3) shots after hitting a shot around the rim. 2 of his shots were inside of 15 feet.
In the fourth, he was 4/6, including a three, but he was 2/4 at the line, missing two big ones with about 16 seconds left, as I mentioned. He also had an assist. When he stuck the three with about a half-minute left, they were down 1.
Little rough. If he hadn't sucked in the 3rd, they might have built a better cushion and taken that game. Instead, L.A. evened the series.
Game 5. 11/23, 1/2 3P, 2/4 FT, 50.5% TS. 25/16/3, 3 TOV. 30-point blowout. KG played 43 minutes, conjuring that old thought about he gets a bunch of numbers in garbage time. Minny was down 7 at the half, down 21 after 3 and down 30 at the end of the game. We'll look at KG's second half performance, offense-only in the third and then what he did once the game was long-decided in the fourth.
In the third, he got a pass picked off by Kobe, he had an assist and he shot 4/8 for 9 points (1/2 from 3). Pretty solid performance all told, with two shots at the rim and two others within 7 feet. OK, so now we're going to look at the 4th Q, which starts with the Wolves down 21 points, and we're going to see what KG racked up in garbage time.
He played about 9.5 minutes in the fourth, leaving down 28 with about 2:38 to go. 1 offensive rebound (his own miss after getting blocked by Brian Shaw at the rim) and 4 defensive rebounds. It was the only offensive rebound he had all game and 4 of his 15 defensive boards. He split a pair of FTs and shot 1/3 from the field.
Doesn't much look like he racked up too many box score data points. He wasn't dominating and bringing them closer, they were getting pounded and Flip took him out eventually. Again though, it was the reigning champs, so the outcome wasn't really a huge surprise to anyone, especially as the team thinned from a few years prior, as scary as that is to say. They had to play some out-of-their-minds offense in order to get those two wins.
Game 6, elimination time, KG's favorite!
9/21 FG, 0/1 3P, 0/2 FT. 41.1% TS, 83 ORTG. He was terrible on O. 12 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals, 3 turnovers, 18 points. Not a good game. Good box score line, but not a good game. Played 44 minutes in a 16-point loss. Wolves were up by 5 after 1, down 4 after 2, down 6 after 3 and lost the 4th quarter by 10. Shaq had 8 offensive boards to Minny's 11. The 2nd and 4th quarters were the bad ones for Minny. The 4th was bad defensively, but the 2nd was bad offensively, with them scoring only 13 points.
Rough game. Minny went on a 9-0 run to close the third... and then Kobe opened up the fourth with 10 of the 14 points he'd score in the quarter, with L.A. opening the quarter on an 18-2 run. Shaq had 9 assists, Kobe 8 (total, not in the quarter). L.A.'s passing was just ridiculous that game. It took 6.5 minutes for the Wolves to score their first basket in the 4th.
In the 2nd, KG played the last 9 minutes. He had a pair of assists, a picked off pass and shot 2/5, scoring 4 of their 13 points... but involved in 8. Were he a more dominant scorer, that could have helped, but it's hard to nit-pick that performance in this series over much.
4th Q. An assist, two turnovers, 2/5 shooting (including Devean George blocking him), leaves with 1:56 remaining, down by 18.
The next one will be a post all on its own for the 2004 postseason.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
I love it, tsherkin. I won't have time to reply for awhile today, most likely, but I'm looking forward to your follow-ups and I'll definitely be replying before it's all said and done.
Ditto for you, Texas Chuck. I love that this has turned into an actual discussion, with info being exchanged on both sides. Look forward to getting back into it later.
Ditto for you, Texas Chuck. I love that this has turned into an actual discussion, with info being exchanged on both sides. Look forward to getting back into it later.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Texas Chuck wrote:drza,
to help me with some context can you provide me with your scource for this statistical information? Obv I want to check and see how Dirk specifically compares but also other strong defenders from this generation. Those stats all look really impressive but its hard for me to accurately weight them without some additional perspective. I dont want to minimize his impact so I need some basis for comparison.
Actually, I can go ahead and answer this part. Unfortunately, the answer is that I cobbled it together over time from several different sources. For example, the 1-on-1 matchups with Duncan I got from their basketball-reference and/or ESPN game logs, I believe. Once I had Duncan's individual numbers in the games against Minnesota, I could subtract them from his total numbers for those playoffs runs and average over the remaining games to get his postseason averages against everyone else.
The 1-on-1 matchup data vs Rasheed came from calculations that someone else (ElGee, maybe?) did in the Retro Player of the Year project. I don't know the exact page of the thread, but it has to be in the 2000 thread somewhere.
The +/- data (per 100 possessions) from 2007 - 2012 is available on basketballvalue.com.
The +/- data (per 48 minutes) from 2004 - 2011 postseason used to be available on 82games.com, but the site has slipped and some of the older data sets are no longer accessible (though I had some of that data already written into spreadsheet form from before the site stopped working).
Probably the most comprehensive (in terms of years) source for +/- data is now basketball-reference.com, as they have it from 2001 - current, but unfortunately they only do "on-court" +/- data. That's not the worst thing, though, as with on-court +/- data and the overall team scoring data it's not hard to calculate on/off +/- for all of those years. It's a bit of a nuissance and time, though, which is why I haven't gone through yet and gone back to 2001 for all the main players.
Hope that helps.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
2004, Denver, Sacramento and the Lakers.
Denver series was a 4-1 series victory. Sacramento a 4-3 victory and the L.A. series was a 6-game loss.
DEN
Game 1. 13/30 FG, 4/6 FT. 30/20/4 with 5 turnovers. Gaudy totals, 46% TS, 14-point win. Cassell carried them with a 40-point game on 16/24 shooting, with 5/6 from 3 and 3/3 at the line. As was typical, Sprewell sucked on offense. Because he sucked at everything not related to choking people and playing defense. *grumble* At least he played good D that year. I'm not bitter. At all. 30 shots in 36 minutes was a bit excessive from Garnett, especially with that level of performance, but it happened. He was taking shots mainly because, apart from Cassell, not a lot of other guys on the team could generate and hit shots. An offensive mainstay from previous runs, Wally Z, was coming off of the bench and he sucked. Hassell did well. That's about it. Spree was 2/11, but 7/8 at the line. CRAP he was bad from the field, though. Brick City.
Game 2. 20/22/10. Triple double, yay! 9/27 shooting, 2/2 FT.... BOOOOOOO! 35.9% TS. Not his best game. 44 minutes played in a win. Spree earned his contract on that one, though, 11/17, including a random 7/8 from downtown, and 2/3 FT for 31 points that floated the team. Cassell was 6/17 and 0/4 from downtown, an expected regression after the previous game (still a rough night, though). The bench was 9/13 with 1 3PM and 8/9 from the line. Aww yeah, total team production!
Game 3. 24/11/8, 4/7 FT, 56.9% TS. A loss, actually, but still a good performance from KG. Unlike the double-digit knock-offs in the first two games, the Wolves were actually themselves knocked off by 21 points. Spree scored a bunch, continuing an atypical shooting trend by going 3/8 from downtown and scoring 25 points. Cassell was 4/11, but 2/4 from 3 for 10 points. Szczerbiak was 4/12. The bigger issue was Nene going 7/8 and the Wolves getting SMOKED on the glass, 53 to 36. Camby's 8 offensive boards (among 16 total) helped the Nuggets have 20 offensive boards total. Second-chance points FTW. Denver was +12 in the first, which is how this game was buried, but they were +1, +6 and +2 in the following quarters.
Game 4. 27/14/5, 5 turnovers. 8/17 shooting... and 11/15 at the line. Win.
Game 5. 9/16 FG, 10/13 FT, 28/7/8 with 6 turnovers in the close-out game. 6/13 FG, 2/3 3P and 12/12 FT for 26 points from first-time All-Star Alien.
And that was the Denver series. KG finally had a good game in the final game of a series, heh.
Sacramento.
This one looks good for KG, especially in the elimination game.
Game 1. It doesn't start that way, though. 16/18/7 with 6 turnovers on 6/21 shooting to open the series in a loss.
Game 2. 28/11/4 with 6 blocks in a win. 8/16 FG, 12/14 FT.
Game 3. 30/15/3 with 5 blocks, 11/23 FG, 8/9 FT in a win.
Game 4. 19/21/6 with 5 turnovers in a loss, 8/18 FG, 1/3 3P, 2/2 FT, 50.3% TS.
Game 5. 9/21 FG, 5/6 FT, 23/12/3 with 8 turnovers in a 12-point win. Sacramento up and couldn't hit ANYTHING but free throws that game. Spree keeps making me look bad for my earlier comment with his 13/21 shooting for 34 points, but I maintain what I said... this was atypical for him and he'd prove it as early as the following season. Plus, he's a jackass. Bad, BAD game from KG, though; coughing it up all over the place, shooting terribly, etc.
Game 6. 8/19 FG, 3/4 FT, 19/10/5 with 5 turnovers and 5 fouls in a loss. Another rough game from Garnett, and against a team that wasn't a particularly imposing defense, either. Divac/Webber, really? Garnett should have eaten that alive to help them earn some rest before the WCFs, but instead he was falling flat on his face.
Game 7. Elimination game and redemption time for KG. 32/21/2. 4 steals, 5 blocks, 2 turnovers... and defense behind that validates those numbers. He was... everywhere. And he scored 14 points in the fourth quarter, which we'll talk about in a second. Arguably the best playoff game he managed before Boston, certainly one of the best he's ever played.
He played 46 minutes, and they needed him, finishing ahead by only 3 points. Wolves were up 10 at the half with a strong first quarter, then both teams sucked ass in the second, but the Wolves sucked 4 points less, so they came out ahead (Minny outscored the Kings 19-15 that quarter). KG generally held Webber in check, though Old Webber wasn't that hard to keep in check... contest his soft jumpers and you're gold. Aww yeah, knee injuries...
Anyway, 4th Q, KG goes hard to the rim. 1/3 from the line, but 6/8 from the field (including a 3) and 4 of those shots were at the rim, none farther than 8 feet except the 3. It was beautiful. He and Wally Z connected a couple of times for easy shuffles that left Garnett cleaning up around the basket and it was just dominant.
Boom, series. What a birthday! He scored 13 straight at one point in that quarter. He had some big, big defensive plays as well, though that's kind of assumed. I will never forget the way Webber looked, reaching for air, after KG crossed him and dunked.
Lakers.
Game 1. 16/10/2 with 4 turnovers, 7/15 shooting. Not a great night in a loss. This was a slow, slow game, so the overall numbers are a little deceiving, but you'd hope for more over 45 minutes. Malone matched Garnett with 17/11/4, frustrating him a lot. Karl, when healthy, was a really big part of what the Lakers did that year, and had he been healthy the entire season, things might have ended differently than they did. Anyway, Minny got within 4 late in the 4th before they committed a turnover and Malone stopped Garnett on an attempt, then Fish stuck a dagger 3. In deference to Minny in this series, Cassell was enduring a low-back injury and they were again outmatched in terms of top-end talent. Shaq did the 27/18/5 thing, obliterating Minny's quadruple teams. It was grimly amusing to watch balloon-like Oliver Miller and pint-sized Mark Madsen trying to guard Shaq, whose 5 offensive boards were more than Minny's 3. Same old song and dance.
Game 2. 24/11/3 in a win, 50% FG, 3/5 at the line, hitting his only 3 as well. Cassell played only 43 seconds because of the injury. L.A. was 15/29 at the line, Shaq was 4/10 from the field (Ervin Johnson outscored him in the first half!) and Kobe was 10/24. Karl Malone had 5 turnovers. The bench was 5/13, Payton and George combined to go 4/16. It was brutal.
Game 3. 22/1/7, 4 turnovers, fouled out. 9/21 FG, 1/2 3P, 3/4 FT. Not a great game in an 11-point loss, especially when they were down only 5 going into the 4th. Cassell scored 18 points in 26 minutes. Of Shaq's 17 boards, 7 were on the offensive glass. Minny had 9. Shaq was an appalling 8/22 at the line but went 7/10 from the field to score 22 points. Kobe was 5/12 from the field (2/6 from 3) but 10/11 at the line to also score 22 points. Shaq did make 6 of his last 9 FTAs when the Wolves went Hack-a-Shaq in the 4th. KG scored one bucket in the last 18 minutes, but there was a lot of question about the equality of the officiating. KG fouled out, but only had 4 FTAs while Malone did play him fairly rough... and KG fouled out after having only 2 fouls in the previous pair of games (none in Game 2, as it happens). Definitely at least some curiosity there. Still, when you go
Game 4. 12/24, 1/2, 3/4. 28/13/9 with 4 turnovers in 47 minutes of a 7-point loss. The Wolves were +1, -6, -10 and +8 by quarter. Cassell played only 5 minutes. Spree was 4/18. Wally Z was 6/15 FG, hit his only 3 and was 6/6 at the line off of the bench. Shaq had 19/19, Fisher scored 15 off the bench and Kobe had 31 (18 in the 3rd). Can't really blame KG here. Wasn't an ultra-dominant, legendary performance, but it was still a rather impressive one. 12/11/8 from Malone definitely helped L.A.'s case, though.
Game 5. 30/19/4 in a 2-point win. 10/23 shooting, but 10/11 at the line. 17/13 from Shaq, but he fouled out. 8/19 FG for Kobe (3/8 3P, 4/6 at the line) for 23 points (6 boards, 7 assists, 4 turnovers). 17/9/3 with 5 fouls from Malone. 17 points from Fisher off the bench. Wasn't enough. KG was that good. Spree stopped sucking, which helped. Hoiberg and Wally helped as well, combing for 25 points off of the bench on 8/19 shooting (1/4 from 3, 8/10 at the line).
Game 6, elimination time.
22/17/2. 8 turnovers, 6 fouls. 9/20 shooting, 4/6 FT. Not a good night for Garnett in a 6-point loss.
8/22 shooting balanced against 11/11 FT for Spree, scoring a team-high 27 points. Turnovers hurt, a lot. Basically, the not-Garnett portion of the team played at their usual level. Nothing special, nothing terrible. Guys shot pretty well, no one was really brutal. Garnett just crumbled, but it's true that Cassell wasn't there for the whole game again (that's, what, 4 games where he played 5 minutes or less?).
10/10/7 from Malone. 20 points and 4 assists from Kobe. He shot terribly, 6/17 from the field. 1/3 from downtown, 7/11 at the line. 25/11 from Shaq, 5 offensive boards. 4 turnovers, 5 fouls. 6/8 FG (including 6/7 from 3) helped Kareem Rush score 18 points that really carried L.A., though. Minny was up 1 going into the 4th quarter, fighting back from an 11-point deficit after the first quarter. I'll look at the 1st and 4th for KG.
BTW, Kobe and Shaq spent most of the first 3 quarters in foul trouble. The Wolves were 24/26 at the line, Garnett being the only one to miss FTAs.
Garnett's first quarter was ugly. He had an assist, but 3 turnovers (an offensive foul, Malone stealing it and a bad pass). He hit a technical free throw courtesy of Gary Payton and was 0/2 from the field, checking out with 5 minutes remaining after fouling Shaq in the act.
4th quarter.
More sloppy play. An assist, but 3 turnovers (traveling, an offensive foul and a picked-off pass). 0/1 at the line. 2/4 on shots that mattered (he chucked a 3 and missed with 22 seconds left, down 7). The free throw came when he drew a shooting foul on Shaq. He committed his 6th foul with about 19 seconds left and fouled out.
Brutal.
So there we have it, a look at KG's postseason career in Minnesota. You'd have to overcome a lot of serious offensive concerns to claim that the APM numbers are really good evidence of his dominance, particularly given his penchant for coming up dry when it matters the most. There was some questionable officiating in that series but it didn't cause him to screw everything up on every play, and 8 turnovers can't really be put down to Malone cheating each time (especially since a few of them were Kobe stealing bad passes). Malone was pulling the chair on him all series, but he did it to Malone the series prior and it's been an effective post-D technique for forever and a day, and isn't illegal. KG was so used to the body that when Malone started pulling it, he caused all manner of trouble for Garnett, which is hilarious to me given Garnett's penchant for turning AWAY from the defender for the fade from the block.
In any case, this should serve as a counterpoint to drza's post. It's not definitive, but it's a matching data set that contradicts the APM finding by pointing out how rough Garnett was in certain situations and I think the data clearly shows several games where Garnett's poor offensive performance cost the Wolves some close games that, while they probably wouldn't have changed the tide of the series, would have changed the tone of his career narrative. I don't think it's fair to say at all that he's the most dominant postseason performer during any stretch of his career. I think it's functionally apparent that the Lakers had two better postseason performers, that you could make a very strong argument for Duncan and, in more recent times, you have to start looking at Dirk and Lebron, as well as individual seasonal bursts from a guy like Wade in 06, or even a burst of performances from someone like T-Mac who had some outstanding runs in Orlando and even a few in Houston... just as short as most of Garnett's, too, so it matches up nicely.
More to the point, several of those guys made the playoffs as often or more during that same period of time. There were reasons for it, but KG missed the playoffs from 05-07, meaning he's got a smaller overall sample than many of these other guys.
Food for debate, in any case.
Denver series was a 4-1 series victory. Sacramento a 4-3 victory and the L.A. series was a 6-game loss.
DEN
Game 1. 13/30 FG, 4/6 FT. 30/20/4 with 5 turnovers. Gaudy totals, 46% TS, 14-point win. Cassell carried them with a 40-point game on 16/24 shooting, with 5/6 from 3 and 3/3 at the line. As was typical, Sprewell sucked on offense. Because he sucked at everything not related to choking people and playing defense. *grumble* At least he played good D that year. I'm not bitter. At all. 30 shots in 36 minutes was a bit excessive from Garnett, especially with that level of performance, but it happened. He was taking shots mainly because, apart from Cassell, not a lot of other guys on the team could generate and hit shots. An offensive mainstay from previous runs, Wally Z, was coming off of the bench and he sucked. Hassell did well. That's about it. Spree was 2/11, but 7/8 at the line. CRAP he was bad from the field, though. Brick City.
Game 2. 20/22/10. Triple double, yay! 9/27 shooting, 2/2 FT.... BOOOOOOO! 35.9% TS. Not his best game. 44 minutes played in a win. Spree earned his contract on that one, though, 11/17, including a random 7/8 from downtown, and 2/3 FT for 31 points that floated the team. Cassell was 6/17 and 0/4 from downtown, an expected regression after the previous game (still a rough night, though). The bench was 9/13 with 1 3PM and 8/9 from the line. Aww yeah, total team production!
Game 3. 24/11/8, 4/7 FT, 56.9% TS. A loss, actually, but still a good performance from KG. Unlike the double-digit knock-offs in the first two games, the Wolves were actually themselves knocked off by 21 points. Spree scored a bunch, continuing an atypical shooting trend by going 3/8 from downtown and scoring 25 points. Cassell was 4/11, but 2/4 from 3 for 10 points. Szczerbiak was 4/12. The bigger issue was Nene going 7/8 and the Wolves getting SMOKED on the glass, 53 to 36. Camby's 8 offensive boards (among 16 total) helped the Nuggets have 20 offensive boards total. Second-chance points FTW. Denver was +12 in the first, which is how this game was buried, but they were +1, +6 and +2 in the following quarters.
Game 4. 27/14/5, 5 turnovers. 8/17 shooting... and 11/15 at the line. Win.
Game 5. 9/16 FG, 10/13 FT, 28/7/8 with 6 turnovers in the close-out game. 6/13 FG, 2/3 3P and 12/12 FT for 26 points from first-time All-Star Alien.

And that was the Denver series. KG finally had a good game in the final game of a series, heh.
Sacramento.
This one looks good for KG, especially in the elimination game.
Game 1. It doesn't start that way, though. 16/18/7 with 6 turnovers on 6/21 shooting to open the series in a loss.
Game 2. 28/11/4 with 6 blocks in a win. 8/16 FG, 12/14 FT.
Game 3. 30/15/3 with 5 blocks, 11/23 FG, 8/9 FT in a win.
Game 4. 19/21/6 with 5 turnovers in a loss, 8/18 FG, 1/3 3P, 2/2 FT, 50.3% TS.
Game 5. 9/21 FG, 5/6 FT, 23/12/3 with 8 turnovers in a 12-point win. Sacramento up and couldn't hit ANYTHING but free throws that game. Spree keeps making me look bad for my earlier comment with his 13/21 shooting for 34 points, but I maintain what I said... this was atypical for him and he'd prove it as early as the following season. Plus, he's a jackass. Bad, BAD game from KG, though; coughing it up all over the place, shooting terribly, etc.
Game 6. 8/19 FG, 3/4 FT, 19/10/5 with 5 turnovers and 5 fouls in a loss. Another rough game from Garnett, and against a team that wasn't a particularly imposing defense, either. Divac/Webber, really? Garnett should have eaten that alive to help them earn some rest before the WCFs, but instead he was falling flat on his face.
Game 7. Elimination game and redemption time for KG. 32/21/2. 4 steals, 5 blocks, 2 turnovers... and defense behind that validates those numbers. He was... everywhere. And he scored 14 points in the fourth quarter, which we'll talk about in a second. Arguably the best playoff game he managed before Boston, certainly one of the best he's ever played.
He played 46 minutes, and they needed him, finishing ahead by only 3 points. Wolves were up 10 at the half with a strong first quarter, then both teams sucked ass in the second, but the Wolves sucked 4 points less, so they came out ahead (Minny outscored the Kings 19-15 that quarter). KG generally held Webber in check, though Old Webber wasn't that hard to keep in check... contest his soft jumpers and you're gold. Aww yeah, knee injuries...

Boom, series. What a birthday! He scored 13 straight at one point in that quarter. He had some big, big defensive plays as well, though that's kind of assumed. I will never forget the way Webber looked, reaching for air, after KG crossed him and dunked.
Lakers.
Game 1. 16/10/2 with 4 turnovers, 7/15 shooting. Not a great night in a loss. This was a slow, slow game, so the overall numbers are a little deceiving, but you'd hope for more over 45 minutes. Malone matched Garnett with 17/11/4, frustrating him a lot. Karl, when healthy, was a really big part of what the Lakers did that year, and had he been healthy the entire season, things might have ended differently than they did. Anyway, Minny got within 4 late in the 4th before they committed a turnover and Malone stopped Garnett on an attempt, then Fish stuck a dagger 3. In deference to Minny in this series, Cassell was enduring a low-back injury and they were again outmatched in terms of top-end talent. Shaq did the 27/18/5 thing, obliterating Minny's quadruple teams. It was grimly amusing to watch balloon-like Oliver Miller and pint-sized Mark Madsen trying to guard Shaq, whose 5 offensive boards were more than Minny's 3. Same old song and dance.
Game 2. 24/11/3 in a win, 50% FG, 3/5 at the line, hitting his only 3 as well. Cassell played only 43 seconds because of the injury. L.A. was 15/29 at the line, Shaq was 4/10 from the field (Ervin Johnson outscored him in the first half!) and Kobe was 10/24. Karl Malone had 5 turnovers. The bench was 5/13, Payton and George combined to go 4/16. It was brutal.
Game 3. 22/1/7, 4 turnovers, fouled out. 9/21 FG, 1/2 3P, 3/4 FT. Not a great game in an 11-point loss, especially when they were down only 5 going into the 4th. Cassell scored 18 points in 26 minutes. Of Shaq's 17 boards, 7 were on the offensive glass. Minny had 9. Shaq was an appalling 8/22 at the line but went 7/10 from the field to score 22 points. Kobe was 5/12 from the field (2/6 from 3) but 10/11 at the line to also score 22 points. Shaq did make 6 of his last 9 FTAs when the Wolves went Hack-a-Shaq in the 4th. KG scored one bucket in the last 18 minutes, but there was a lot of question about the equality of the officiating. KG fouled out, but only had 4 FTAs while Malone did play him fairly rough... and KG fouled out after having only 2 fouls in the previous pair of games (none in Game 2, as it happens). Definitely at least some curiosity there. Still, when you go
Game 4. 12/24, 1/2, 3/4. 28/13/9 with 4 turnovers in 47 minutes of a 7-point loss. The Wolves were +1, -6, -10 and +8 by quarter. Cassell played only 5 minutes. Spree was 4/18. Wally Z was 6/15 FG, hit his only 3 and was 6/6 at the line off of the bench. Shaq had 19/19, Fisher scored 15 off the bench and Kobe had 31 (18 in the 3rd). Can't really blame KG here. Wasn't an ultra-dominant, legendary performance, but it was still a rather impressive one. 12/11/8 from Malone definitely helped L.A.'s case, though.
Game 5. 30/19/4 in a 2-point win. 10/23 shooting, but 10/11 at the line. 17/13 from Shaq, but he fouled out. 8/19 FG for Kobe (3/8 3P, 4/6 at the line) for 23 points (6 boards, 7 assists, 4 turnovers). 17/9/3 with 5 fouls from Malone. 17 points from Fisher off the bench. Wasn't enough. KG was that good. Spree stopped sucking, which helped. Hoiberg and Wally helped as well, combing for 25 points off of the bench on 8/19 shooting (1/4 from 3, 8/10 at the line).
Game 6, elimination time.
22/17/2. 8 turnovers, 6 fouls. 9/20 shooting, 4/6 FT. Not a good night for Garnett in a 6-point loss.
8/22 shooting balanced against 11/11 FT for Spree, scoring a team-high 27 points. Turnovers hurt, a lot. Basically, the not-Garnett portion of the team played at their usual level. Nothing special, nothing terrible. Guys shot pretty well, no one was really brutal. Garnett just crumbled, but it's true that Cassell wasn't there for the whole game again (that's, what, 4 games where he played 5 minutes or less?).
10/10/7 from Malone. 20 points and 4 assists from Kobe. He shot terribly, 6/17 from the field. 1/3 from downtown, 7/11 at the line. 25/11 from Shaq, 5 offensive boards. 4 turnovers, 5 fouls. 6/8 FG (including 6/7 from 3) helped Kareem Rush score 18 points that really carried L.A., though. Minny was up 1 going into the 4th quarter, fighting back from an 11-point deficit after the first quarter. I'll look at the 1st and 4th for KG.
BTW, Kobe and Shaq spent most of the first 3 quarters in foul trouble. The Wolves were 24/26 at the line, Garnett being the only one to miss FTAs.
Garnett's first quarter was ugly. He had an assist, but 3 turnovers (an offensive foul, Malone stealing it and a bad pass). He hit a technical free throw courtesy of Gary Payton and was 0/2 from the field, checking out with 5 minutes remaining after fouling Shaq in the act.
4th quarter.
More sloppy play. An assist, but 3 turnovers (traveling, an offensive foul and a picked-off pass). 0/1 at the line. 2/4 on shots that mattered (he chucked a 3 and missed with 22 seconds left, down 7). The free throw came when he drew a shooting foul on Shaq. He committed his 6th foul with about 19 seconds left and fouled out.
Brutal.
So there we have it, a look at KG's postseason career in Minnesota. You'd have to overcome a lot of serious offensive concerns to claim that the APM numbers are really good evidence of his dominance, particularly given his penchant for coming up dry when it matters the most. There was some questionable officiating in that series but it didn't cause him to screw everything up on every play, and 8 turnovers can't really be put down to Malone cheating each time (especially since a few of them were Kobe stealing bad passes). Malone was pulling the chair on him all series, but he did it to Malone the series prior and it's been an effective post-D technique for forever and a day, and isn't illegal. KG was so used to the body that when Malone started pulling it, he caused all manner of trouble for Garnett, which is hilarious to me given Garnett's penchant for turning AWAY from the defender for the fade from the block.
In any case, this should serve as a counterpoint to drza's post. It's not definitive, but it's a matching data set that contradicts the APM finding by pointing out how rough Garnett was in certain situations and I think the data clearly shows several games where Garnett's poor offensive performance cost the Wolves some close games that, while they probably wouldn't have changed the tide of the series, would have changed the tone of his career narrative. I don't think it's fair to say at all that he's the most dominant postseason performer during any stretch of his career. I think it's functionally apparent that the Lakers had two better postseason performers, that you could make a very strong argument for Duncan and, in more recent times, you have to start looking at Dirk and Lebron, as well as individual seasonal bursts from a guy like Wade in 06, or even a burst of performances from someone like T-Mac who had some outstanding runs in Orlando and even a few in Houston... just as short as most of Garnett's, too, so it matches up nicely.
More to the point, several of those guys made the playoffs as often or more during that same period of time. There were reasons for it, but KG missed the playoffs from 05-07, meaning he's got a smaller overall sample than many of these other guys.
Food for debate, in any case.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
drza wrote:I love it, tsherkin. I won't have time to reply for awhile today, most likely, but I'm looking forward to your follow-ups and I'll definitely be replying before it's all said and done.
Ditto for you, Texas Chuck. I love that this has turned into an actual discussion, with info being exchanged on both sides. Look forward to getting back into it later.
Yeah man, this is starting to become good fun.

Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
drza wrote:Texas Chuck wrote:drza,
to help me with some context can you provide me with your scource for this statistical information? Obv I want to check and see how Dirk specifically compares but also other strong defenders from this generation. Those stats all look really impressive but its hard for me to accurately weight them without some additional perspective. I dont want to minimize his impact so I need some basis for comparison.
Actually, I can go ahead and answer this part. Unfortunately, the answer is that I cobbled it together over time from several different sources.
Hope that helps.
Yeah it will. thanks.
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
This is fantastic information, guys. Thanks a lot.
Quick question for drza -- Do you have a take on KG's lost years (2005-7)? Was there any evidence of a decline in play in KG, or a decline from his teammates? Obviously, there was a lot of team unrest in 2005.
We see again in 2008 that KG is alive and well, but I'm wondering if that just comes from better offensive teammates --> more personal focus on defensive end + easier offense --> a rejuvenation of sorts, rather than a consistent (possibly a slowly declining, due to age) KG from around 1999/2000 - 2008/9.
I guess relevant to this topic, and not totally off from what TC/ahonui were saying, there are certainly advantages to having a player who maintains his production regardless of the situation (read: really bad in MIN).
Quick question for drza -- Do you have a take on KG's lost years (2005-7)? Was there any evidence of a decline in play in KG, or a decline from his teammates? Obviously, there was a lot of team unrest in 2005.
We see again in 2008 that KG is alive and well, but I'm wondering if that just comes from better offensive teammates --> more personal focus on defensive end + easier offense --> a rejuvenation of sorts, rather than a consistent (possibly a slowly declining, due to age) KG from around 1999/2000 - 2008/9.
I guess relevant to this topic, and not totally off from what TC/ahonui were saying, there are certainly advantages to having a player who maintains his production regardless of the situation (read: really bad in MIN).
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Swimmer wrote:Obviously, there was a lot of team unrest in 2005.
Things to keep in mind regarding 05-07:
KG was rocking 22, 13.5 (league lead) and 5.7 in 05, on 56.7% TS. He continued to play very strong defense. Led the league in WS, posted his highest ORTG pre-Boston (117, peaked at 118 in 08 with Boston), posted the third-highest DWS of his career, etc, etc. He was a statistical marvel. 82 games played and everything. Cassell played 59 games. Sprewell's D fell of of a cliff... and it was the last season he'd ever play in the NBA (which is hilarious, because he turned down a contract extension offer from the Wolves and then never made it back into the NBA).
The year after, Garnett had the temerity to miss 6 games and the Wolves traded Sam Cassell AND A FIRST for Marko Jaric, who sucks. Except at marrying Adriana Lima, at which he is awesome. They have two kids, and I hate him, lol. Wally Z played 40 games before the trade, when he, Kandi, Dwayne Jones and a first were sent to Boston for Ricky Davis (d'oh!), Mark Blount, Marcus Banks and some nonsense. Not long after, Wally Z would have knee surgery that he'd needed for a while and had hampered him in Minny. Troy Hudson played only 36 crappy games due to injury. He could hit the three... and could do nothing else well. And was gone for over half the season. Ricky Davis was a toolbag, Mark Blount couldn't D up or rebound (or score at better than league-average efficiency, aww yeah 15-footers all day long...), Marcus Banks sucked like a vacuum and yeah... that was 2006. Bad management and injuries.
2007, Minny proved AGAIN that their management were toolbags. Sitting at 20-20 under Dwayne Casey, they fired him (even though that represented a significant improvement over the 33 wins they'd had the season prior) and named Randy Wittman the interim head coach. Wittman proceeded to coach the same roster to a 12-30 record in the second half of the season. Garnett tailed off noticeably on offense, though he led the league in defensive rebounding. Ricky Davis was way worse than his gaudy averages and percentages suggested because he was one of the dumbest and most selfish players I've ever seen, Eddie Griffin was a wreck who played only 13 games (and then actually died in a car crash the offseason)....
It's understandable. Minnesota endured some absolutely garbage management in those years, just bad decision after oversight after mistake for years. McHale murdered the Timberwolves (and actually Glen Taylor wasn't innocent in that respect either).
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
- Texas Chuck
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Again and I dont want to equate the situation in Dallas to the absolute trainwreck happening up North but..
In 2004. Dallas inexplicably lets Nash walk for nothing. This leads to a series of dominos falling. They trade Jamison to Wash for Stack/Laetner and the #5 --Note this deal happens prior to Nash actually leaving but its clear when they draft Devin over a lot of other potential options that they know the line they have set for Nash may get crossed. They then trade Walker for JET/Henderson. So they have now traded two extemely talented(if admitted terribly fitting players) to fill one hole. They downgrade from Nash/Walker/Jamison to JET/rookie Devin/and past his prime Stack. At the end of the offseason they turn Laettner's deal, Najera(an underrated loss) and filler to sign Damp to a big deal. Then the following offseason they amnesty Finley.
So Dirk lost 4 all-star level players in the course of 2 offseasons. Now they still had some talent. Damp was a solid player early in his Dallas career. JHo was solid as was JET. Devin had flashes but made Ricky Davis look like a genius with his penchant for dumb fouls and dumber turnovers. Stack scored but at terrible efficiency. They added KVH at the trade deadline in 05 and he plays okay as Dirk's backup. They sign Doug Christie to start at sg and he and his crazy wife finally completely fall off the deep end and his Mavericks career lasts 7 games of absolutely putrid basketball.
The point isnt to say Dirk had the same level of fultility KG did but that he did have to overcome a complete roster turnover, a massive downgrade in raw talent, and a coaching change that couldnt have been a bigger 180 from Nellie to Avery. Yet not only did he survive this, Dirk thrived. He put up monster individual years 2005-2007. Probably should have 2 MVPS--he should have won in 06. His team continued to win big 58,60 & 67(after starting 0-4 so ended the season 67-11) until finally melting down against GSW and leading ultimately to the Kidd trade.
My point has always been this was a tough period for both KG and Dirk. Both still played really well individually tho. I jsut dont want the narrative to be KG's teams sucked so 05-07 can be excused without at least giving Dirk a boatload of credit for lifting his team to great heights in the midst of so much change.
In 2004. Dallas inexplicably lets Nash walk for nothing. This leads to a series of dominos falling. They trade Jamison to Wash for Stack/Laetner and the #5 --Note this deal happens prior to Nash actually leaving but its clear when they draft Devin over a lot of other potential options that they know the line they have set for Nash may get crossed. They then trade Walker for JET/Henderson. So they have now traded two extemely talented(if admitted terribly fitting players) to fill one hole. They downgrade from Nash/Walker/Jamison to JET/rookie Devin/and past his prime Stack. At the end of the offseason they turn Laettner's deal, Najera(an underrated loss) and filler to sign Damp to a big deal. Then the following offseason they amnesty Finley.
So Dirk lost 4 all-star level players in the course of 2 offseasons. Now they still had some talent. Damp was a solid player early in his Dallas career. JHo was solid as was JET. Devin had flashes but made Ricky Davis look like a genius with his penchant for dumb fouls and dumber turnovers. Stack scored but at terrible efficiency. They added KVH at the trade deadline in 05 and he plays okay as Dirk's backup. They sign Doug Christie to start at sg and he and his crazy wife finally completely fall off the deep end and his Mavericks career lasts 7 games of absolutely putrid basketball.
The point isnt to say Dirk had the same level of fultility KG did but that he did have to overcome a complete roster turnover, a massive downgrade in raw talent, and a coaching change that couldnt have been a bigger 180 from Nellie to Avery. Yet not only did he survive this, Dirk thrived. He put up monster individual years 2005-2007. Probably should have 2 MVPS--he should have won in 06. His team continued to win big 58,60 & 67(after starting 0-4 so ended the season 67-11) until finally melting down against GSW and leading ultimately to the Kidd trade.
My point has always been this was a tough period for both KG and Dirk. Both still played really well individually tho. I jsut dont want the narrative to be KG's teams sucked so 05-07 can be excused without at least giving Dirk a boatload of credit for lifting his team to great heights in the midst of so much change.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
I don't disagree with that, per se, but it does bear mention that there is a compelling difference between Don Nelson/Avery Johnson and Dwayne Casey/Randy Wittman, too, yes? And then, of course, Rick Carlise (and the accompanying additions of Kidd, Marion and Chandler at various points).
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Oh, right, and in 2005, Dirk still had Finley, Terry (who shot 42% from 3 that year), Howard and Damp.
That right there is clearly better than any roster Minny fielded from 05-07.
That right there is clearly better than any roster Minny fielded from 05-07.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Yes. I have consistently said he had better talent than KG. Im just pointing out that he went through some of the similar problems KG did in important and talented players leaving the team and coaching changes and knuckleheads and yet his teams actually improved. And Dirk's personal growth as a player is the primary reason.
I think KG's situation is so bad and Cuban spends so much money that the actual reality of Dirk's situation gets missed. Trust me I lived through all of it.
And we obviously arent discussing 08 and beyond where both guys are finally surrounded by a legit coach and teammates who fit their individual games.
I think KG's situation is so bad and Cuban spends so much money that the actual reality of Dirk's situation gets missed. Trust me I lived through all of it.
And we obviously arent discussing 08 and beyond where both guys are finally surrounded by a legit coach and teammates who fit their individual games.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Texas Chuck wrote:Yes. I have consistently said he had better talent than KG. Im just pointing out that he went through some of the similar problems KG did in important and talented players leaving the team and coaching changes and knuckleheads and yet his teams actually improved. And Dirk's personal growth as a player is the primary reason.
Mmm, but the considerably greater level of teammate talent and the higher-level support from management and the coaching staff cannot be ignored, and the two situations aren't comparable. Dirk's success in the same time frame isn't really a relevant point next to Garnett's situation because of the vast disparity in their team contexts. It's nice to note, but the upheavel in Dallas is more a reason that the talented rosters weren't competing for a title, which is a far different struggle than dealing with the idiocy of team management and trying to make the playoffs.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
- Texas Chuck
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Well we will disagree on how "talented" those Dallas rosters were but thats not even really my point. In fact I will go so far as to say as a Mavericks fan all that talent downgrade was absolutely the right move for our franchise. I dont think we have as much success sticking with Nash and Nellie as we did moving on from that.
I definitely dont want to get back into that stupid game of trying to figure out how much each player's respective teammates were worth. I am no longer trying to penalize KG for 05-07. You and drza have convinced me of my mistakes there. My post wasnt about KG at all. I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.
I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big. The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.
I definitely dont want to get back into that stupid game of trying to figure out how much each player's respective teammates were worth. I am no longer trying to penalize KG for 05-07. You and drza have convinced me of my mistakes there. My post wasnt about KG at all. I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.
I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big. The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Texas Chuck wrote:Well we will disagree on how "talented" those Dallas rosters were but thats not even really my point.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they were talented enough that I expected him to do more than he did. I was right shocked and rather thrilled when they made the Finals in 06, for example. That was all due to the beat-down Dirk gave the Spurs, which was utterly unfathomable at the time. Beautiful basketball, that.
I'm saying only that in comparison the Minny situation, Dirk's situation isn't even worth discussing. They represent two entirely separate and wholly different situations. Minnesota was an ungodly trainwreck of incompetence.
In fact I will go so far as to say as a Mavericks fan all that talent downgrade was absolutely the right move for our franchise. I dont think we have as much success sticking with Nash and Nellie as we did moving on from that.
I think Nellie was a far bigger problem than Nash, personally. Nash would have been fine if they didn't have a toolbag coach who didn't believe in defense or frontcourt size, and didn't gameplan effectively on defense.
I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.
Dirk very much deserves credit; what he's accomplished in Dallas has been remarkable. From 01 forwad, the only team of his that's won less than 50 games has been the 2012 Mavs... winning 36 games in a 66-game season, which would have been around 45 wins in a proper season. That stretch includes seven appearances at least as far as the Semis, one knockout in the WCFs and a pair of trips to the Finals (the latest ending with a title). That's a damned fine 12-year stretch for a franchise.
I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big.
I'm not seeing the relevance here. Minny didn't have the talent to sacrifice, so it's an utterly useless point in a comparative discussion.
The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.
No, but he's had good coaching, roleplayers that covered his weaknesses and guys who've stepped up when it matters. Jason Terry SHOULD have been an All-Star at least once, he's a very talented player whose rep took a bit of a hit when he went to the bench. It bears mention that while Marion didn't play as he did at his peak, he was a 13/7 player who was a very good defender on the 2011 title Mavs. Chandler was DPOY the year after he left Dallas, after having exerted an obvious and visible impact on their team with his offensive rebounding and defense. Terry did win the 6MOY in 2009. Kidd is a former All-Star who played very good defense and found himself a role as a spot-up shooter and distributor for the team. Haywood, Stevenson, more defensive roleplayers who fit into the rotation very effectively.
It'd be disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that Dirk hasn't had much to work with, which is what you're implying when you talk about not having elite teammates. He hasn't had the kind of squad where you'd expect him to make the Finals in consecutive seasons like, for example, Kobe, but he's had a good deal of talent around him (especially the last 4 years or so) and he's done a lot with it. Remember that in the 03-04 season, Jamison was the 6MOY. A year later, he was an All-Star in Washington. That trade worked out rather well for them, as you noted before. That had nothing to do with Dirk or his leadership and everything to do with the talent level and trade value of a player management acquired. Devin Harris was later the key piece in the deal that netted them Jason Kidd. That means that the guy who was noted so much for the defense he played in the 2011 playoffs was acquired based on something entirely independent of Dirk. He averaged basically 10/10 for the Mavs over the last 30 games of the 08 season, then 9/9, 10/9, and finally 8/8 in the title season. Antoine Walker was likewise moved with Tony Delk in order to acquire Jason Terry... the 09 6MOY and the semi-unheralded second scorer of the 2011 title run. Remember, 17.5 ppg on 60.4% TS in the 2011 postseason. 18 ppg on 60.5% TS in the Finals. In 32.5 mpg. 14/6/2 and great defense from Marion in the Finals. 10/9 and great D from Chandler. 42.9% on 4.7 3PA/g in the Finals from Kidd, averaging ~ 8/5/6 in ~ 38 mpg. DeShawn Stevenson shot 56.5% from 3 in the Finals on a little over 3.8 3PA/g while playing strong defense.
Hell if that isn't a team with a lot of strong contributors. Not a lot of top-end star talent after Dirk, but again, it's unfair to characterize post-05 Dirk as not having played with talent, or that management didn't do a really, REALLY good job in order to put him in position to make those runs. Lest we forget, the title run in 06 was galvanized not just by Dirk, but by 17.1 ppg from Jason Terry on 57.5% TS. He was a 40%+ 3pt shooter in each of his first three seasons with Dallas and hasn't shot worse than 36% from 3 on a season with the Mavs. In the 06 playoffs, he scored 18.9 ppg on 52% TS, stumbling because he couldn't find his 3 and doesn't draw fouls. But he was still a significant scoring presence and has been a key part of their various postseason runs. He averaged 22 ppg on 55.2% TS in the Finals (although he was brutal in the elimination game, he did open the series with a 32-point game and score 35 in game 5).
See what I'm getting at, though? Dirk's enjoyed a LOT more talent than has Garnett.
One thing that does come to mind looking at the way the two of them have played out is that their narratives do support the idea that defensive value seems better extracted from roleplayers and offensive value from star players. That kind of thought process would need further investigation, but Dirk has proven to be capable of elevating his rebounding game come the playoffs... and when it really mattered, he had enough help on the glass from his team that it didn't matter, so he could focus on scoring and get decent support from his teammates and still win.
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
- Texas Chuck
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
tsherkin wrote:
It'd be disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that Dirk hasn't had much to work with, which is what you're implying when you talk about not having elite teammates. .
Wow talk about completely missing what I was saying. I said quite clearly that he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime. I really dont appreciate you twisting that into what Im quoting above.
Again I was attempting to make posts solely about Dirk. I was not making a comparative post. I was extremely clear on this and once again what had turned into an actual discussion on merits has swerved off course and this time I am not the cause.
I will come and discuss the various merits of your post about the MAvs players when I have some free time but I hope you take the time to go back and read what I actually posted not what you are attempting to read into it.
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
Texas Chuck wrote:Wow talk about completely missing what I was saying. I said quite clearly that he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime. I really dont appreciate you twisting that into what Im quoting above.
Again I was attempting to make posts solely about Dirk. I was not making a comparative post. I was extremely clear on this and once again what had turned into an actual discussion on merits has swerved off course and this time I am not the cause.
Then maybe you missed me attacking the relevance of that post to this thread. Here, it's a direct comparison between the two, so talk of matters independent of and immaterial to the debate at hand seems... unnecessarily random. Forgive me if you were offended, but I'm a bit confused as to why you're campaigning for credit to Dirk when most here are acknowledging that he's done a lot with what he's had and that his success with the Mavs has been fantastic. I did acknowledge that, more than once; Dirk has been a superstar player for a dozen years now, this isn't news and it isn't something that's frequently overlooked except by extreme haters who are unaware of the monolithic difference between his play before 08 and since (or the reasons behind what happened in 06 and 07).
Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
- Texas Chuck
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Re: Build around KG or DIRK?
I made posts solely about Dirk for two reasons:
1. Look at the posts itt and almost all of them are exclusively or nearly exclusively about KG. How can we have a comparitive discussion if we are only discussing one guy?
2. Much is made about 05-07 and the bad situation KG was in. While yet again let me be crystal clear, Dirk was in a better situation the facts are there was a lot of turmoil and a downgrade in talent. Not many teams are able to not only maintain their previous level of play but in fact improve upon it.
In a seperate post I will tell how this lifelong Mavs fan sees those 05-07 teams. Hopefully some other Mavs fans will post to see if Im crazy or if I know that team better than you(as I certainly should).
1. Look at the posts itt and almost all of them are exclusively or nearly exclusively about KG. How can we have a comparitive discussion if we are only discussing one guy?
2. Much is made about 05-07 and the bad situation KG was in. While yet again let me be crystal clear, Dirk was in a better situation the facts are there was a lot of turmoil and a downgrade in talent. Not many teams are able to not only maintain their previous level of play but in fact improve upon it.
In a seperate post I will tell how this lifelong Mavs fan sees those 05-07 teams. Hopefully some other Mavs fans will post to see if Im crazy or if I know that team better than you(as I certainly should).
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