2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Fadeaway_J]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

Josh Hart shot 41% on 3s in playoffs and dished out 5 assists, no brain/heart can fill this massive skill gap

He's definitely a better passer than Wiggins, but he's shooting way over his head in these playoffs.

[penbeast0]

Exactly. Rudy isn't a perfect player, but giving him grief for last night would be like griefing someone for when Jordan just started hitting every contested jumper in the universe on "one of THOSE nights."

Unless you are LaBradford Smith who got blamed for one of those nights because Jordan made up this narrative in his head that Smith had dissed him after they played the previous game. Smith, according to most reports, never actually said a word.

[tsherkin]

His playoff run 2022 was incredible and nobody can ever take that away.

It's actually somewhat overrated.

He played some good defense, though.

Otherwise? 16.5 ppg on 46.9% FG, 33.3% 3 (on 4.8 3PA/g), 7.5 rpg and 1.8 apg. 56.0% TS (which was -0.7% rTS for that postseason and -0.6% for the RS).

Pretty tepid and unremarkable, to be honest, highlight dunk down the middle notwithstanding. Like, outside of the Denver series, he kind of sucked on offense. He shot 33.3% against Memphis, 28.6% against Dallas and 29.7% against Boston (from 3). But he was 7/13 versus Denver in the first round.

He also failed to shoot 70% from the line in any series and crapped himself to the tune of 9/16 (56.3%) against Denver.

We remember a couple of highlights and that the Warriors won, but that isn't really the whole truth. He rebounded well, he defended well. But offensively, he really wasn't all that... save that he was hitting the O-boards with tenacity, which did help.

Still, ooooof. He was ugly to watch much of that run.

[tsherkin]

Exactly. Rudy isn't a perfect player, but giving him grief for last night would be like griefing someone for when Jordan just started hitting every contested jumper in the universe on "one of THOSE nights."

Unless you are LaBradford Smith who got blamed for one of those nights because Jordan made up this narrative in his head that Smith had dissed him after they played the previous game. Smith, according to most reports, never actually said a word.

Jordan has admitted more than once now that he occasionally invented slights against him to get himself going. Shaq did the same thing.

[parsnips33]

His playoff run 2022 was incredible and nobody can ever take that away.

It's actually somewhat overrated.

He played some good defense, though.

Otherwise? 16.5 ppg on 46.9% FG, 33.3% 3 (on 4.8 3PA/g), 7.5 rpg and 1.8 apg. 56.0% TS (which was -0.7% rTS for that postseason and -0.6% for the RS).

Pretty tepid and unremarkable, to be honest, highlight dunk down the middle notwithstanding. Like, outside of the Denver series, he kind of sucked on offense. He shot 33.3% against Memphis, 28.6% against Dallas and 29.7% against Boston (from 3). But he was 7/13 versus Denver in the first round.

He also failed to shoot 70% from the line in any series and crapped himself to the tune of 9/16 (56.3%) against Denver.

We remember a couple of highlights and that the Warriors won, but that isn't really the whole truth. He rebounded well, he defended well. But offensively, he really wasn't all that... save that he was hitting the O-boards with tenacity, which did help.

Still, ooooof. He was ugly to watch much of that run.

He did the job required of him. More than we can say about his last couple seasons

But yeah, those numbers do not look pretty Steph partisans mark this down for agenda purposes

[tsherkin]

He did the job required of him.

Well, sort of. At times. As is his way.

The defense was reasonably consistent, as was the rebounding, and I think that was the best part of his contribution. But people mostly talk about how he "fit into the offense" and stuff, and the reality is that he was pretty mediocre on offense, and considerably worse after the Denver series.

The D and the boards did help a lot, though.

[Owly]

Eh, typically teams that fall down 0-2, losing the first 2 are home are done. That the Nuggets were getting obituaries wasn't the typical Realgm extreme over-reaction.

And if you told me how bad Murray would be Games 3-5, I would have completely written them off.

Of course it was. It's far from unprecedented for a team to lose the first two games at home and come back in a series.

The team that wins the first 2 games of a series is 421-33. Only 5 times has a team come back to win a series after losing the first 2 at home. History overwhelmingly said the Nuggets were in terrible shape.

https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/playoff_series_2_0_recovered.htm
https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/nuggets-aiming-to-be-sixth-team-to-come-back-to-win-a-playoff-series-where-they-lost-the-first-2-games-on-their-home-court/

So it's absolutely true that 0-2 is bad shape and I assume those historical numbers are right. And the discussion regarded precedents.

So I'm not saying anything is wrong but one helpful additional lens that would warn against looking at those numbers as a probabilistic indicator would be ... a lot of the time the team down 2-0 is a decidedly worse team. They are likely to lose the series because they are in bad shape because of the the demand that they win 4 before they lose 2 and because they have the worse team. And worse teams are much likelier to be in that hole (more so given HCA, though more on the flipside to that to follow).

Now Denver haven't won yet. And they had a worse SRS than Utah (some defending champs do deflate in the RS but regardless their number was a little worse that Utah's). And at the margins the "better" team in that hole does tend to add an additional disadvantage likely having blown two homecourt games.

One more aspect to consider is series length. The number cited seems to include best of 5 series. In theory, with less wiggle room, that hole is tougher. At first glance, using the first website cited and a "find" tool, 104 losses from 2 down were best of 5 and 8 of the wins were. As it happens the percentages barely change at all ... 7.14% of teams down 2-0 in Bo5 won versus 7.31% of those in Bo7.

Nevertheless, a discussion, if it regards not just the precedents but their application to Denver's chances, would account for the fact that Denver however one feels or felt about them (and there seems to have been some wide divergence in this thread) would probably acknowledge that relative to opponents (and they are facing good opponents) were probably not at the average notional "real" team quality deficit that such a team might face.

[rk2023]

Wiggins and Green saved a TON if points on defense in the 2022 finals

[tsherkin]

Wiggins and Green saved a TON if points on defense in the 2022 finals

Yes, defense and rebounding were the things he was doing consistently that run.

[Clyde Frazier]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

Hart's motor is just insane. There's more to rebounding than effort but he has no business being an elite rebounder at 6'4". His shooting, passing, ball handling, etc are all pretty average, but he uses that motor to push the ball at every opportunity, and great at creating separation on his drives using his strength. He protects the ball as well as anyone I've seen in the paint.

Thibs has made it clear he asks hart throughout the game if he needs a breather and in those games he played all 48, hart told him no. I'm not some huge thibs supporter, but the minutes criticism is flat out overstated. 2 nights ago *nine* players in the celtics/cavs and thunder/mavs games played 40+ minutes. He isn't the only one playing guys big minutes in the playoffs. Luka just like brunson is banged up, and played 40+.

The only injured player who might've played too much is OG given his injury history. But he's also played big minutes throughout his career. If the knicks make it to the ECF he'll be sorely needed. He makes a huge difference.

[tsherkin]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I don't think they're cliches. I think they are used IN cliches a lot, but the concepts make sense. Motivation and consistency of effort are important. Getting in there to do all the little things, the hustle plays and stuff, that's critical. "Playing the right way," maybe more of an empty statement given the wide variety of effective styles, but stuff like "heart" is just a different label on "effort at the non-sexy stuff."

I'm not some huge thibs supporter, but the minutes criticism is flat out overstated.

History of his coaching patterns has some influence on that particular criticism, especially with specific players for whom it wasn't wise. And late in games with big leads and stuff. It isn't an idle criticism. He isn't the only guy who does it, but it's not an empty notion, and it's not a drum struck that often for no reason.

[Colbinii]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

[Clyde Frazier]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I don't think they're cliches. I think they are used IN cliches a lot, but the concepts make sense. Motivation and consistency of effort are important. Getting in there to do all the little things, the hustle plays and stuff, that's critical. "Playing the right way," maybe more of an empty statement given the wide variety of effective styles, but stuff like "heart" is just a different label on "effort at the non-sexy stuff."

I'm not some huge thibs supporter, but the minutes criticism is flat out overstated.

History of his coaching patterns has some influence on that particular criticism, especially with specific players for whom it wasn't wise. And late in games with big leads and stuff. It isn't an idle criticism. He isn't the only guy who does it, but it's not an empty notion, and it's not a drum struck that often for no reason.

I agree those "cliches" are real, I just meant I feel they're overused so I tend to shy away from them. While this whittled down knicks team has talent, they're definitely still alive due to that extra effort/commitment to playing together. The Villanova chemistry between Brunson/Donte/Hart is also real, which is just a rarity to carry over to the NBA so it's hard to grasp.

I'm not saying the thibs minutes criticism is completely unwarranted. It's just lazily pointed to for any injury. Mitchell Robinson and Bojan both played less than 30 MPG in the regular season and playoffs. Mitch got hurt when Embiid pulled his leg to the ground. Randle dislocated his shoulder on a dangerous play at the rim where he got his legs taken out from under him.

So yes my point was merely other coaches do the same in the playoffs with big minutes. When the knicks got blown out in game 4 many people would have you believe otherwise.

[Clyde Frazier]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

Or the same if the knicks were healthy. They ranked 6th in SRS this season. They weren't some team that eked their way into the playoffs. It goes both ways.

[Colbinii]

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

Or the same if the knicks were healthy. They ranked 6th in SRS this season. They weren't some team that eked their way into the playoffs. It goes both ways.

I agree. None of the teams I mentioned eeked their way into the playoffs either.

There are a lot of good teams this year in the NBA. Lakers played Denver in the 1st round. Dallas is facing OKC in the 2nd round. Minnesota is facing Denver in the 2nd round.

My point is that Denver and OKC are significantly better than anyone New York has faced. New York doesn't control who they face, but I think many teams in the West would be in a similar or better spot than the Knicks if they benefited from playing their 2 opponents.

If New York makes it to round 3 against Boston, I expect it to be a close series, as I think New York will play every team tough. It could be a 4-0 sweep or 4-1 like last year's and this years Denver/Lakers series while still being close.

[tsherkin]

I agree those "cliches" are real, I just meant I feel they're overused so I tend to shy away from them. While this whittled down knicks team has talent, they're definitely still alive due to that extra effort/commitment to playing together. The Villanova chemistry between Brunson/Donte/Hart is also real, which is just a rarity to carry over to the NBA so it's hard to grasp.

Nice if you can get it, though.

I'm not saying the thibs minutes criticism is completely unwarranted. It's just lazily pointed to for any injury.

Fair.

[sp6r=underrated]

Also I'm convinced if Wiggins had Josh Hart's brain/heart Warriors would be 3peating this year lol

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

All I know is this is the closest a knicks team has been to a title since I was in HS. Go Knicks!

[Colbinii]

I'm not a fan of using sports cliches "heart, will to win, plays the right way" etc, but I keep coming back to that with this knicks team.

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

All I know is this is the closest a knicks team has been to a title since I was in HS. Go Knicks!

Sleeping on the 2013 Knicks

This is probably the best Knicks team since 1994.

[sp6r=underrated]

I mean you could probably say that about Dallas/Minnesota/Clippers/Lakers if they played the 76ers and the Pacers in the first 2 rounds as well.

But yeah, the Knicks play better than the 76ers with an injured Embiid and a mediocre Pacers team.

Results oriented thinking can get us into some interesting places.

All I know is this is the closest a knicks team has been to a title since I was in HS. Go Knicks!

Sleeping on the 2013 Knicks

This is probably the best Knicks team since 1994.

I'm going by playoff wins. This team surpassed the 2013 Knicks last night. This team might be the best club since the 94 knicks but they're close to teams like the 97/13 editions rather than 93/94 (legit title contenders)

[Special_Puppy]

All I know is this is the closest a knicks team has been to a title since I was in HS. Go Knicks!

Sleeping on the 2013 Knicks

This is probably the best Knicks team since 1994.

I'm going by playoff wins. This team surpassed the 2013 Knicks last night. This team might be the best club since the 94 knicks but they're close to teams like the 97/13 editions rather than 93/94 (legit title contenders)

If the Knicks were healthy, could you see them beating Boston in a 7 game series?