2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

[ceiling raiser]

Poor performance of the death lineup is going to help boost the Cavs players.

I'm really interested in seeing how much separation the minutes with Green and without Curry will create. OKC and CLE looked better in the playoffs than in the regular season, so their guys might get a boost.

[SideshowBob]

RPM updated on ESPN. James now nearly a full point over Draymond at #2. Defense shot up by half a point following the Finals (3.3 now, was 2.8 after ECF) and just half a point behind Leonard for top spot at SF.

Steph #4 overall.

Wonder how close Green/Lebron will be in RAPM.

[JLei]

RPM updated on ESPN. James now nearly a full point over Draymond at #2. Defense shot up by half a point following the Finals (3.3 now, was 2.8 after ECF) and just half a point behind Leonard for top spot at SF.

Steph #4 overall.

Wonder how close Green/Lebron will be in RAPM.

+9.8. Jesus.

I think that's like close to 10 Bron in his old xRAPM.

Where does this rank on his best defensive seasons?

[SideshowBob]

RPM updated on ESPN. James now nearly a full point over Draymond at #2. Defense shot up by half a point following the Finals (3.3 now, was 2.8 after ECF) and just half a point behind Leonard for top spot at SF.

Steph #4 overall.

Wonder how close Green/Lebron will be in RAPM.

+9.8. Jesus.

I think that's like close to 10 Bron in his old xRAPM.

Where does this rank on his best defensive seasons?

Gotta dock him a little bit for not being 99-100% mistake free like 2012 right? But OTOH seems like max-effort he's as good as ever, plus IQ/experience only gets better with time. Maybe about the same as 11/13

[SideshowBob]

+9.12 through ECF (90 G)
+9.80 through Finals (97 G)

Math doesn't quite work this way but that would be a +18.5 over those 7 games, and going from 2.79>3.30 is the equivalent of +9.9 on defense for the series .

Again not quite how it works - more along the lines of: Finals provided more 5on5 data + box-score data on these specific matchups so thats added to the initial 98% data set and with that in mind, every player is recalculated. But the general premise is evident; that was a (the?) GOAT level series played ITO impact.

EDIT: I think he rose by as much after this series as he did from March to ECF (about a point, was around 5-6 spot before he started tearing it up at the end of the RS). While everyone else saw incremental changes.

[Pillendreher]

Isn't RPM just for the RS?

[SideshowBob]

Isn't RPM just for the RS?

Nope JE always does full season (RS + PS) for both RPM and RAPM. The 2014 & 15 data also includes playoffs. ESPN just doesnt list combined GP for whatever reason.

[lorak]

Love is 10th (!) overall with very good result on defense. I know his defensive numbers in the finals are amazing, but still..

[Pillendreher]

Isn't RPM just for the RS?

Nope JE always does full season (RS + PS) for both RPM and RAPM. The 2014 & 15 data also includes playoffs. ESPN just doesnt list combined GP for whatever reason.

Is there any way to get seperate data for the PS? I'd love to see some stats for KD since his BPM is utterly terrible according to BBR.

[Reservoirdawgs]

Is there any way to get seperate data for the PS? I'd love to see some stats for KD since his BPM is utterly terrible according to BBR.

At one point JE had some separate data for the postseason...the problem was that the sample size was so small that it was basically meaningless because the noise was too overwhelming.

EDIT: If memory serves me correctly, it was on his old xRAPM website that has been changed completely by him.

[homecourtloss]

LeBron with a solid lead over everyone. Quite the meteoric rise (as far as RPM is concerned) rise he had over the last month of the RS and then through the PS

But that seems consistent with the efficiency spike and defensive effort we saw in the playoffs.

[homecourtloss]

Love is 10th (!) overall with very good result on defense. I know his defensive numbers in the finals are amazing, but still..

Love has been at #10 for about two months now and has been in the top 15 practically all season. Kyrie has been a net negative all season although his defense saw quite the spike upwards in just the GS series (I think it was -3.21 after two games in the finals and now it's at -2.68 which is an astonishing jump as far as RPM is concerned.

[dontcalltimeout]

LeBron's RPM on
Date - ORPM DRPM
2/29 - 5.9 2.4
3/30 - 5.8 2.3
4/15 - 6.0 2.4 (*end of season)
5/4 - 6.1 2.7
6/1 - 6.2 2.7 (*end of ECF)
6/21 - 6.5 3.3

Curry
2/29 - 9.0 1.4
3/30 - 8.1 1.4
4/15 - 7.6 1.3
5/4 - 7.5 1.0
6/1 - 7.4 1.0
6/21 - 7.7 0.9

Draymond
2/29 - 3.8 4.9
3/30 - 3.5 5.0
4/15 - 3.8 4.5
5/4 - 3.9 4.9
6/1 - 3.9 4.8
6/21 - 3.9 5.0

Chris Paul (looks really good after the playoffs)
2/29 - 6.2 1.1
3/30 - 6.1 1.3
4/15 - 6.0 2.1
5/4 - 6.0 2.4
6/1 - 6.0 2.4
6/21 - 6.2 2.4

Kawhi
2/29 - 4.4 4.5
3/30 - 4.4 4.6
4/15 - 3.9 4.3
5/4 - 4.0 4.2
6/1 - 4.0 4.0
6/21 - 4.2 3.9

Thoughts: Part of me is concerned by how much we see even the top players RPM change. Not that Curry wasn't a worthy MVP, but it's possible that how he looked in the first half of the season (like the GOAT offensive player) is simply not sustainable. How much does that matter? I'm not sure. Even half a season of GOAT-like play seems really really impressive.
To what extent is LeBron just lucky to peak at the right time and to what extent is it deliberate? My memory might be failing me , but I think it's a trend to see LeBron's RPM and RAPM numbers to go up at near the end of the season as he gets into "playoff mode".
Kawhi, went from GOAT perimeter defender to merely all time great, but I'm not sure what that's about since I didn't watch him that closely at the end of the season. Might just be a weird math thing.

What do y'all think? Any conclusions we can draw from this? I know math-wise there are more things that go into a player's RPM change on any given date beyond their performances.

[SideshowBob]

Thoughts: Part of me is concerned by how much we see even the top players RPM change. Not that Curry wasn't a worthy MVP, but it's possible that how he looked in the first half of the season (like the GOAT offensive player) is simply not sustainable. How much does that matter? I'm not sure. Even half a season of GOAT-like play seems really really impressive.
To what extent is LeBron just lucky to peak at the right time and to what extent is it deliberate? My memory might be failing me , but I think it's a trend to see LeBron's RPM and RAPM numbers to go up at near the end of the season as he gets into "playoff mode".
Kawhi, went from GOAT perimeter defender to merely all time great, but I'm not sure what that's about since I didn't watch him that closely at the end of the season. Might just be a weird math thing.

What do y'all think? Any conclusions we can draw from this? I know math-wise there are more things that go into a player's RPM change on any given date beyond their performances.

This is the 4th straight season this has happened - and it has always coincided with him turning up his play. In 2013 he ramped up his offense around late January (more selective/smarter shooting, better sense of how to attack defenses) and dialed up defensive effort following the all star break. In 2014 we observed him improving his defensive effort from February-onwards. In 2015 we noted that Cavs played at ~11 SRS +11 Offense level from Jan-April (Lebron returns + Moz/Shump/Smith). This season around March he started dialing it up (box-score stats were also below career-averages up to that point but then shot up to match career averages by the end of the RS) plus we noted him leading historic offense vs. EC while he clearly played smartly (30-40% off ball/screening/movement, healthy balance of high/low-post creation, solid spot-up shooting, smart defensive adjustments/switches and execution + best/2nd best rebounding of his PS career). I think its deliberate.

[SideshowBob]

Alrighty tweeted JE for RAPM

[lorak]

LeBron's RPM on
Date - ORPM DRPM
2/29 - 5.9 2.4
3/30 - 5.8 2.3
4/15 - 6.0 2.4 (*end of season)
5/4 - 6.1 2.7
6/1 - 6.2 2.7 (*end of ECF)
6/21 - 6.5 3.3

Curry
2/29 - 9.0 1.4
3/30 - 8.1 1.4
4/15 - 7.6 1.3
5/4 - 7.5 1.0
6/1 - 7.4 1.0
6/21 - 7.7 0.9

Draymond
2/29 - 3.8 4.9
3/30 - 3.5 5.0
4/15 - 3.8 4.5
5/4 - 3.9 4.9
6/1 - 3.9 4.8
6/21 - 3.9 5.0

Chris Paul (looks really good after the playoffs)
2/29 - 6.2 1.1
3/30 - 6.1 1.3
4/15 - 6.0 2.1
5/4 - 6.0 2.4
6/1 - 6.0 2.4
6/21 - 6.2 2.4

Kawhi
2/29 - 4.4 4.5
3/30 - 4.4 4.6
4/15 - 3.9 4.3
5/4 - 4.0 4.2
6/1 - 4.0 4.0
6/21 - 4.2 3.9

Do you have RPM for every player on each of these dates?

[dontcalltimeout]

Do you have RPM for every player on each of these dates?

Yea, what are you looking for?

[bondom34]

Read on Twitter

[SideshowBob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/746377998102847492[/tweet]

Good stuff. Will dive into it later.

[kayess]

Look at this stat made up to prop-up today's stars and put down Kobe - how is Kobe a -2.38?? If anything, his leadership and mamba mentality alone should mean he's always at least a +2 on offense. **** stat geeks...

OT: First thing I noticed was the vast gap between KD and WB in multiyear, but only a decent sized one in NPI; the opposite is true of Draymond and Steph (close in multiyear, massive gap in NPI). Thought that was really interesting.

Rubio and Harden drop like rocks in NPI, the Kyles and Kawhi stay relatively the same. Paul's near the top as usual. Love/Irving consistently strong/average. LeCoast being 7.6 doesn't seem real given how terrible he was most of the season - how much of this was the last ~40 games, playoffs included?

Draymond Green man. What a time to be alive