RealGM Top 100 List #5

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#61 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jul 9, 2014 1:59 am

therealbig3 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Top 10 list


I see that on your personal top 10 list (I think you posted it in the last thread), you have Shaq 5th, Duncan 6th, and Hakeem 7th.

I believe that order used to be reversed for you. What changed your mind with regards to Shaq vs Duncan/Hakeem, and what changed your mind with regards to Duncan vs Hakeem? I remember that with Shaq at least, you used to penalize him quite a bit for his off-court actions.


Actually my whole rest of my top 10 is all flipped around from before. Used to have Magic/Bird then Hakeem before Duncan and KG with Shaq in the caboose. Key things:

Magic & Bird drop for me as I've become less able to rationalize their lacking longevity. Still have a ton of respect for the geniuses they were, and frankly they are two guys who may well be even better today, but they had short careers and that hurts them.

Shaq used to be in the back because it was my perception that his laziness had a bigger impact on his impact than it turned out it actually did now that we
See the +/- data. Makes it hard for me to rank anyone ahead if him who he had a clear edge over
With
Either peak or longevity.

Obviously I gavee KG the nod alone over him among this tier which is going out in quite the limb. I look at the data though and he's got himself within close range if Shaq in pact with clearly superior longevity and worlds better intangibles. The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.

That leaves Hakeem slipping a but because I'm just not as confident about his sustained impact. My best guess is to give him a huge peak but without that kind if "still great bang for your buck" that KG and Dumcan have as old men.

Si vote: Garnett


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#62 » by colts18 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:04 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Actually my whole rest of my top 10 is all flipped around from before. Used to have Magic/Bird then Hakeem before Duncan and KG with Shaq in the caboose. Key things:

Magic & Bird drop for me as I've become less able to rationalize their lacking longevity. Still have a ton of respect for the geniuses they were, and frankly they are two guys who may well be even better today, but they had short careers and that hurts them.

Shaq used to be in the back because it was my perception that his laziness had a bigger impact on his impact than it turned out it actually did now that we
See the +/- data. Makes it hard for me to rank anyone ahead if him who he had a clear edge over
With
Either peak or longevity.

Obviously I gavee KG the nod alone over him among this tier which is going out in quite the limb. I look at the data though and he's got himself within close range if Shaq in pact with clearly superior longevity and worlds better intangibles. The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.

That leaves Hakeem slipping a but because I'm just not as confident about his sustained impact. My best guess is to give him a huge peak but without that kind if "still great bang for your buck" that KG and Dumcan have as old men.

Si vote: Garnett


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If Shaq's attitude was so toxic and KG's the opposite, why did Shaq's team have so much success while KG's teams didn't?

You still haven't answered how many playoff runs do you think Shaq had better than KG's best playoff run or how many playoff runs Shaq had better than 08 KG.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#63 » by magicmerl » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:05 am

90sAllDecade wrote:
magicmerl wrote:You have provided a wide range of stats here, but it feels a little like you are cherry picking ones that make Hakeem look good and not providing a full picture. I've already posted a per100 stat comparison showing Duncan, Shaq and Hakeem, and while Hakeem looks great in rebounds and steals, he's similar to Duncan at scoring/efficiency and far behind Shaq.

Maybe my per100 stats for the RS need to be updated to show what sort of playoff performers each were. To what extent does the smaller sample size tell us more about the player than their regular season games? (Here's the playoffs data)
Magic... 23.9PTS .595TS% 9.5REB 15.1AST 2.3STL 0.4BLK 4.5TO 3.4PF
Duncan. 30.2PTS .584TS% 16.5REB 4.4AST 1.0STL 3.3BLK 3.7TO 4.0PF
Shaq.... 34.7PTS .565TS% 16.6REB 3.8AST 0.8STL 3.0BLK 4.3TO 5.1PF
Hakeem 33.7PTS .569TS% 14.6REB 4.1AST 2.2STL 4.2BLK 3.8TO 5.0PF

So what conclusions can we reach from this? Both Magic and Duncan were more unselfish players or were offensively underutilised relative to Shaq/Hakeem, given that they had greater efficiency and lower point totals. Duncan's regular season rebounding lead evaporates compared to Shaq (which fits the narrative that Shaq didn't try as hard during the regular season). Hakeem continues to be an unimpressive rebounder, but superlative overall defender as seen from steals and blocks.


More "unselfish'? You're comparing a PG with Bigs, who will naturally have more assists? We could even include Tony Parker and he's have a better AST%. Duncan also has a top 4 GOAT level coach & system and played with prime HOFers to enhance his passing.

When I said 'unselfish', what I was meaning was that both Duncan and Magic had poorer Pts/100poss, and better TS% then either Shaq and Hakeem. So they could have afforded to call their own number more, even if it came at the expense of a reduced TS%. That wasn't a sentence I premeditated, it was a thought based on the per100 data I posted.

90sAllDecade wrote:And saying Duncan was underutilized is a spin imo, the objective career evidence is right there. Be it RS or Playoffs he flat out overall was a worse volume scorer than Hakeem. Per100 doesn't mean Duncan can handle that volume over the decades Hakeem or Shaq did it, nothing says he was a better offensive scorer over his career.

Again, I'm not saying that he really was underutilised, just that he shot fewer attempts, more efficiently, than either Shaq or Hakeem. Both of those big men were an offensive focal point for their team, and their TS% reflects that extra attention the defenses gave them.

90sAllDecade wrote:
I think that looking at 'All Star players' and 'HOF coach' is a particularly flakey way of evaluating how much support a player has. Also, I could have sworn that I thought that RudyT was a HOF coach before he went to LA.


All star years, HOF coaches are objective evidence that provides broad strokes of a teammates play relative to the league at that position. Relative to competition at their positions, those guys had better team support.

What objective evidence have you brought to rate team support over different eras or decades? That is your subjective opinon and you have a right to it, I brought objective evidence. We can agree to disagree.

Yes, I think we'll have to agree to disagree that opinion based accolades are objective rather than subjective evidence. I agree that it's not YOU being subjective about them (it's the people who award those awards). Whereas an equivalent OBJECTIVE measure I think would be win shares.

90sAllDecade wrote:So, how many times did he get outplayed in his prime against PFs? Hakeem never got outplayed in his prime against other centers.

I don't think there's a terribly big distinction between centers and power forwards. In fact, Timmy is almost the living proof that there are just 'bigs' and 'wings'.

90sAllDecade wrote:You make statements about me but don't include Amare who ripped the Spurs offensively in both the RS and Playoffs. Amare played center but his natural position is PF, Duncan played PF and center as well but the Spurs hid him on defense to stay out of foul trouble.

Sorry, I made 'statements about you'? I am not sure what you mean.

And not listing Amare I think is roughly the equivalent of leaving out Kemp, and for the same reason. While both are great players, they aren't 'great' within the sort of rarefied context we are talking about in the top100 thread. I don't regard either as being 'top30' material, and so I don't consider them as being 'great' players. The 'great' power forwards that Duncan faced were Dirk and Garnett. And I also included Shaq.

I don't understand what you are trying to prove with your analysis against selected players. If you want to show how they played against the very best, isn't it reasonable for you to restrict their opponents to players who actually *were* the very best? I've used the top30 as a somewhat fuzzy cutoff for 'best opponents'. What criteria did you use?

If you want to consider how good they were against EVERY opponent, why not just look at their career scores? That's what I did with the per100 breakdown and the Win shares comparison.

Look, it seems like you perceive me to be a Duncan homer, but I haven't been posting *any* stats on here with a pre-determined agenda of trying to make Duncan look good. I've tried to be upfront about any assumptions I'm making about WHY I'm choosing the comparisons I'm posting. For what it's worth, I'm a little on the fence about Shaq and depending on the arguements made by others I might switch my vote to him.

90sAllDecade wrote:More spin here.

Well, I'm sorry you feel that that was spin. I included Karl Malone since he was a contemporary big of Hakeem, that faced him in the playoffs, that met MY criteria of being a top 30 player. Just as an aside, if I dropped him, the only player that Hakeem would have been matched against for more than a single playoffs series is Shaq, and Hakeem didn't win either of those series comparisons in my eyes. That makes the body of evidence for 'Hakeem is a great playoff performer, particularly vs other great players' look VERY thin to me.

90sAllDecade wrote:You accuse me of manipulating and cherry picking, but use Karl Malone whose natural position is PF and has never been listed as a center his whole career

I also didn't think that there was that much difference between a power forward and a center, since they are both bigs without 3pt range. I take it you don't agree.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#64 » by O_6 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:07 am

Although I didn't vote for Wilt, I'm somewhat glad we got him out of the way because of how unique he is historically. I think the run-off vote that almost cost Wilt the #4 spot shows how divided people are about how his talent translated into impact. I find it slightly odd yet pretty cool that Russell and Wilt rank #3 and #4 next to each other after all this analysis that we've done over the years.

My vote for the #4 thread was Shaquille O'Neal. There are some great arguments that I read on the other thread that made me question my choice. But I'm going to stick with my guns and choose SHAQUILLE O'NEAL mainly because of his consistently historic offensive impact combined with inconsistent but valuable defense.

LeBron/Magic/Bird/Garnett were all fantastic players. I've loved reading their arguments in the other thread. I think one of the most obvious things that this project has cemented for me is the fact that LeBron James is going to end up extremely high on this list when we do a RealGM Top 100 just 5 years from now. If he has Kobe/KG (HS-to-NBA) type of longevity, I think he could make a push for #1 or at the very least a Top 4 spot (adding another to the Russell/Kareem/Jordan tier). But as of right now I think he lacks a little longevity to be a Top 5 player on this list. The other 3 guys were all very tough to keep out as well.

So for me this came down to one of the most classic debates in RealGM Player Comparisons Board history... Hakeem vs. Shaq vs. Duncan

The arguments for Hakeem and Duncan over Shaq are obviously based around defense. Yes, these two were obviously more impactful defenders than Shaq over the course of their careers. Hakeem and Duncan are two of the Top 10 maybe Top 5 most impactful defenders in NBA history. And that goes a long way in this discussion. But I believe Shaq was a good enough defender to make up the gap because he was one of the great offensive forces in NBA history and did it with a unique and unstoppable style.

Shaq's regular season offense in perspective:
35.2 PP100 -- 16.1 RP100 -- 3.7 AP100 -- .586 TS% -- 26.4 PER -- 115.4 OWS -- 41,918 mins

DOMINANT individual statistics. An all-time great volume scoring big who combined historic volume with historic efficiency. The only players in NBA history with both a greater regular season PPG and TS% than Shaq are Durant/Kareem/Dantley. Durant is obviously a legendary scorer who we are witnessing do his thing right now. Kareem is obviously another legendary scorer but even he falls short of Shaq's PPG when you adjust the pace to 100. Dantley is the surprise on that list, but he's another guy who falls short of Shaq in terms of scoring volume when you translate the PPG to a pace of 100. So in reality only a still in his prime Kevin Durant is the only player in NBA history to be both a more efficient scorer AND be a higher volume scorer than Shaq.

Dantley was a player whose individual scoring never seemed to translate into a monster impact for his team. It's the reason why his name will be called very late in this project. Shaq on the other hand, always led ELITE defenses.

Let's call '93-'05 the prime of Shaq's career. I believe these were the seasons where he was the MVP of his teams. By 2006, Wade had taken over that role for the Heat although Shaq was still very valuable. And I understand that Penny and Kobe both had some fantastic seasons over this spread, but Prime Shaq was always the driving force of those teams through '05. This is how his team ranked in terms of ORtg all of those seasons...

Code: Select all

93: 13th (rookie)
94: 3rd
95: 1st
96: 3rd
97: 9th (1st yr LA)
98: 2nd
99: 2nd
00: 5th
01: 2nd
02: 2nd
03: 4th
04: 6th
05: 5th (1st yr MIA)


So over a 13 year span that included 3 teams and 5 different coaches, Shaq's teams were always near the very top of the offensive food chain. The only year he was out of the Top 10 was when he was a rookie. The only other years his teams were out of the Top 5 were his 1st year with LA (still 9th) and in '04 when they were 6th. So unlike certain players in NBA history with great stats, Shaq's dominant individual scoring CLEARLY translated into enormous value on a team level.

Advanced RAPM metrics: Confirm obvious offensive impact
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/xrapm-points-above-average-91-14 -- colts18's site
'91-'14 xRAPM Above Average: +3358.1 Offense --- 4th (LeBron, Stockton, Kobe)
'97-'14 RAPM Above Average: +2738.8 Offense ---- 5th (LeBron, Dirk, Kobe, Nash)
#1 Offensive RAPM several times over career
Defensive RAPM is generally good to very good although not great

Basic individual stats, advanced individual stats, team rankings, etc... they all seem to agree on Shaq's greatness offensively. And although I didn't really mention defense too much in this post, they all seem to suggest that Shaq was clearly a positive defender albeit not a Duncan/Garnett/Hakeem/Robinson level defender.

Eye Test + Skillset + Individual Matchups issues:
Based on the pure eye test, Shaq was one of the most unstoppable athletes I've ever seen. His ability to dominate the interior of the game was so valuable. In terms of 2-way value within 5ft of the rim, Shaq is the GOAT with only Wilt in the conversation. I love that dominant interior aspect about Shaq. Garnett's lack of dominance near the rim is why I do not believe it is time to rank him this high yet. When you had Shaq on your team, your team would have the edge near the rim. That's just such a valuable aspect of Shaq's dominance. And because he was so close to the rim, his offensive game was historically consistent.

There was also no style of defender that really bothered him. I guess a Wes Unseld/Moses Malone low to the ground powerhouse would be the ideal type, but even that's a guess because Shaq was so strong and long that we never truly saw him struggle against an opponents. Shaq/Kareem/Dirk are my GOAT offensive bigs and Shaq was easily the most "unguardable" of the 3 throughout his career.

Historical Uniqueness and Value:
Kareem is really the only other GOAT-level Offensive Force + Very Good Interior Anchor type in NBA history. Whereas it is extremely hard to separate Hakeem from Garnett from Robinson from Duncan. Those guys are all GOAT-level Defensive forces who have certain question marks about their offensive games. It's just so tough to separate those guys. People say that Hakeem was a comparable Offensive Force to Shaq, but that was only for a couple of seasons. People could say that David Robinson was a comparable Offensive Force to Shaq, but that wasn't the case once the playoffs rolled in. People could never say Duncan or Garnett were on Shaq's level on offense.

I love the Hakeem/Duncan duo and it was tough to go against them. But I just simply believe Shaq was the more historically dominant player and worthy of this spot.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#65 » by MacGill » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:09 am

Baller2014 wrote:If Shaq was better than Duncan, why did he have less success in his career, despite: better team mates, a better peak, and a slightly longer prime? That's a simplistic question, but a telling one IMO.


Define less success specifically?

We know basketball isn't a one on one game.....same as strange to me why Duncan never won a DPOY award ;) Doesn't make him any less of an elite defensive player though?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#66 » by The Infamous1 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:09 am

colts18 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Actually my whole rest of my top 10 is all flipped around from before. Used to have Magic/Bird then Hakeem before Duncan and KG with Shaq in the caboose. Key things:

Magic & Bird drop for me as I've become less able to rationalize their lacking longevity. Still have a ton of respect for the geniuses they were, and frankly they are two guys who may well be even better today, but they had short careers and that hurts them.

Shaq used to be in the back because it was my perception that his laziness had a bigger impact on his impact than it turned out it actually did now that we
See the +/- data. Makes it hard for me to rank anyone ahead if him who he had a clear edge over
With
Either peak or longevity.

Obviously I gavee KG the nod alone over him among this tier which is going out in quite the limb. I look at the data though and he's got himself within close range if Shaq in pact with clearly superior longevity and worlds better intangibles. The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.

That leaves Hakeem slipping a but because I'm just not as confident about his sustained impact. My best guess is to give him a huge peak but without that kind if "still great bang for your buck" that KG and Dumcan have as old men.

Si vote: Garnett


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If Shaq's attitude was so toxic and KG's the opposite, why did Shaq's team have so much success while KG's teams didn't?

You still haven't answered how many playoff runs do you think Shaq had better than KG's best playoff run or
how many playoff runs Shaq had better than 08 KG.


I'm starting to just think now that Kevin Garnett supporters just don't care about postseason performance. We are talking about players he's being compared to now(Lebron/Shaq/Bird/ Kobe/Magic/Duncan/Hakeem) who have 3,4,5 plus playoff runs better than his Best(04).
We can get paper longer than Pippens arms
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#67 » by colts18 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:14 am

Another plus for Shaq is how well he led his team when Kobe was injured. Every time Kobe was injured, the Lakers wouldn't miss a beat including 2000 when the Lakers had a 6.61 SRS without Kobe. The games missed show that Shaq was really impactful and clearly the best player on his team during that time.

Games Kobe missed and Shaq played in, 98-04:

28-6 (.824, 68 win pace)
5.90 SRS

Games Shaq missed, 98-04:
33-31 (.516, 42 win pace)
0.58 SRS
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#68 » by 90sAllDecade » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:14 am

Baller2014 wrote:There's a thread I linked to in my post, which went on forever comparing Duncan and Hakeem. The Duncan crowd like me came in and swung things around from a large pro Hakeem vote to being deadlocked at 53 at the end (when it was locked, I assume out of sheer exhaustion). In it all-90's made a number of quite inaccurate claims, most of which (as Micro pointed out last thread) he never addressed. Hakeem was a great player, he totally deserves to be discussed soon, but he only has 3 years he was really comparable to Duncan.

Just to refer back to the last thread post I made on this:

Spoiler:
90sAllDecade wrote:Here's a point addressing Duncan vs Hakeem's supporting casts:


Actually, the way this post was originally phrased in the Duncan v.s Hakeem thread is here:
viewtopic.php?p=40178758#p40178758
In it, you describe Hakeem's support cast as "nothing". Well, "nothing" included all-star power forward Otis Thorpe, and in games Hakeem missed over 91 and 92 "nothing" managed to post a 28-20 record. A bit hard to see how that was "nothing".

Duncan

97-98 to 00-01 - D. Robinson - age 32 (All NBA 2nd team x1, All NBA 3rd team x2)
04-05,10-11 - M. Ginobilli (All NBA 3rd team x2, Sixth Man of the Year x1)
05-06 to 13-14 - T. Parker (All NBA 2nd team x3, All NBA 3rd team x1)

All NBA Defensive teammates: Bruce Bowen (1st team x5, 2nd team x2),K. Leonard (1st team x1) D. Robinson (2nd team x1)
HOF Coaches: G. Popovich x17 yrs

Total: 11 years with 1+ All Star, 9 years with all NBA defensive player, 1 HOF coaches x 17 years

Hakeem

84-85 to 86-87 - R. Sampson (All NBA 2nd team x1)
91-92 - O. Thorpe
94-95 to 97-98 - C. Drexler- age 32 (All NBA 3rd team x1)
96-97 - C. Barkley - age 33
01-02 - V. Carter
All NBA Defensive teammates: Rodney McCray (1st team x1, 2nd team x1), S. Pippen - age 33 (1st team x1)
HOF Coaches: 0

Total: 8 years with 1+ All Star, 3 years w/All Defensive player, 0 HOF coach

This is such a misleading analysis, because it has no context to it. You're excluding whole years that are inconvenient, and not mentioning key players, and including non-prime years (why?). You're also acting like Hakeem and Duncan were achieving comparable results with these weak support casts, when they plainly weren't. Looking at Hakeem's career during this period; 42 wins in 1987 (lost to the 39 win Sonics who were barely a playoff team), 46 wins in 88 (lost to the solid but not great Mavs), 45 wins in 1989 (lost to the X-Man Sonics again), 41 wins in 1990 (lost to the Showtime Lakers, but if Hakeem had helped them win more games they never have to play the Lakers in Rnd 1), 1991 they go out in the first round again, and in 92 they did not even make the playoffs (and the injury to Hakeem is an insufficient excuse, because their record with him was only 40-30, hardly comparable to what Duncan was doing with weak support casts in 01-03.

Hakeem often had plenty of good team mates, and until his peak in 93-95 (when he finally put it together) he was not carrying them in remotely the same way as Duncan proved he could. Let's take his support cast in 1990 when they won 41 games for instance. Hakeem had Otis Thorpe, a 17-9-3 all-star, defensively tough power forward with killer efficiency at 548. FG%; Sleepy Floyd, still in his prime at 29 years old, and having made an all-star team several years earlier. He had Mad Max, a fierce defender and talented player (who much like Artest, often gunned it too much from the 3pt line), and solid to excellent role players like Buck Johnson, Wiggins, Lucas and Woodwon (for most of the season anyway). 41 wins? Are you kidding me? Hakeem had most of those guys, including Thorpe and Sleepy, the previous season too.

Even when he put it together in 93, he still lost to the Sonics in the playoffs (who always seemed to own him, by employing a borderline illegal defense which, very importantly, would be totally legal in today's game... Hakeem was very fortunate he didn't have to play those same Sonics in 94 or 95 IMO, and of course they took him down in 96- through the regular season and playoffs Hakeem just seemed hopeless against the Sonics, and it was all by using a tactic that is now legal- a worrying point).

Sure, Duncan had more help in general over his career... and he met or surpassed expectations in all those years when he had good talent around him. But when he didn't have help, in 01-03, he still delivered. Hakeem didn't when the chance to carry bad teams arose, and he had plenty of chances. Those Rocket teams I referred to from 87-92 were positively brimming with talent compared to the 01-03 Spurs support casts.


I disagree the Rockets were "brimming" with talent those years and that is your subjective opinion. I brought objective evidence to support my argument.

I addressed the Rockets and Hakeem those years in the last threads. I will re-post them if you like later.


You also didn't include my comment in that thread and are being disingenuous to win rather than find the truth imo.

Baller2014 wrote:wrote:
To see him referred to as "nothing", I mean it is unbelievably disrespectful to Thorpe.


I put in parenthesis that the Rockets had "nothing" in regards to players who made the All Star team, HOF contributors HOF coachers or defensive selections. Your making a semantic argument imo, which is fine. Instead of nothing you can use what I indicated in parenthesis.

And Baller2014 I appreciate Thorpe and showed you he was an all star player. But really you're downplaying the better help Duncan had and trying to twist semantics and language rather than acknowledging the facts I presented on why Duncan's support is better.

The point was to show that Duncan had higher caliber talent around him than Hakeem. I still haven't seen anyone objectively prove Hakeem had more help in comparison.

01' All Star David Robinson even at his age is better than all star Otis Thorpe in 91', Otis never lead the Rockets in Drtg over Hakeem.

2nd team all NBA defensive Bruce Bowen is better defensively than any player you listed. Cassell and Horry didn't win Rookie 1st and 2nd team honors like Tony Parker and Manu, who had HOF talent etc.


You haven't provided any objective evidence that Duncan's supporting casts were better and acutally agree with me towards the end.

I never said Hakeem had similar team accomplishments, because my actual point was Duncan had a lot more team support to get those accomplishments.

If your going to rate an individual using team based accomplishments you should go all the way and do a team comparison. Duncan had a huge team advantage.

Those years were used for different threads I copied and pasted, the substance is the totals at the bottom.

Here, everyone can see the years Manu and Parker played, Pops coached, bowen was all defensive and Robinson was an all star:

Spurs All star (keep in mind Manu sacrificed some all star years to come of the bench and won Sixth man of the year, which would add to these totals):
http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... _star.html

Popvich:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/coa ... gr99c.html

Bruce Bowen:
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nbr01.html

Tony Parker:
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eto01.html

Manu:
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... bma01.html

Robinson (1998 onwards):
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nda01.html

Leonard:
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... aka01.html
NBA TV Clutch City Documentary Trailer:
https://vimeo.com/134215151
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#69 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:15 am

90sAllDecade wrote:I'll start off with arguments you haven't refuted and still stand.

1. Hakeem is a better athlete than Duncan
2. Better individual playoff performer
3. Played tougher competition in his peak
4. Had less team support throughout his career
5. Duncan had a GOAT level coach over Hakeem
6. Duncan was a worse scorer in both the RS and PO
7. Duncan has a lower peak
8. Duncan is worse defensively as an individual (steals, blocks and defensive assignments)


I'm troubled you don't think these points were addressed in the Duncan v Hakeem mega thread, because they all were.
1. It is irrelevant if Hakeem is a better athlete, we only care who was a more impactful player
2. I have no idea what you are basing your claim that Hakeem was a better playoff performer on. I've directed you multiple times to the table which shows Duncan and Hakeem's stats side by side with pace and minute adjustment, and Hakeem's advantage vanishes... and that's regular season, Duncans stats go up in the playoffs... consistently, not just cherry picking a 4 game series where Hakeem put up big stats. Of course, in his 93-95 prime Hakeem's playoff impact (and all around impact) is Duncan like, but that's 3 years.

I saw a lot of this sort of "big stat" argument made in the Stockton thread, where his supporters would say "yeh, he lost to this bad team, but he put up good individual stats". If peak Lebron put up great individual stats but lost to a 39 win team in the playoffs I don't think his critics would just give him a pass. What really matters is how your stats translate into impact, into wins. This is devastating for Hakeem, because he consistently had good team mates in his post Sampson pre-93 years (87-92) and the team was not good. I posted on this extensively several posts above this one. Hakeem is 100% accountable for that. We don't rank players by volume stats. Even in 93, when Hakeem finally put it together, he was unable to overcome the Sonics "illegal" defense, which owned him time and again in the regular season and playoffs, an illegal defense that it was totally legal for teams to employ against Duncan.
3. Yup, the Xavier McDaniel Sonics, the Blackman Mavs, the Payton/Kemp Sonics, were clearly superior competition. How could Hakeem compete with these giants of NBA lore? Here are some of the teams who won more games than Hakeem's team did in 1990 (that year he had another all-star big on his team, Sleepy Floyd and a number of good to solid role players); the Fat Lever Nuggets, the Alvin Robertson-Jay Humphries Bucks, the Mark Price Cavs (crushed by injuries), the Reggie Miller Pacers, and they were tied with the D.Ellis/X-Man Sonics and the Hawks. In 1992 when you missed the playoffs the Clippers made it. The Clippers, who were in the middle of a 26 year run with only 1 season above 500. (and your win% with Hakeem healthy is still less than the Clippers won this year). Sure, Hakeem lost to the odd good team in the playoffs during this period, but if he'd won more games in the regular season like Duncan's crappy Spurs teams from 01-03 then he wouldn't be playing the Showtime Lakers in round 1.
4. I agree, he generally did have less support (though not by nearly as much as you make it out to be). However he also turned in far worse results than Duncan too, so it's not like we're comparing like for like here. What we can look at then is when both guys had bad teams, how did they do? Duncan had no problems from 01-03. Hakeem had huge issues from 87-92 (and even issues in 93, 96, etc, being totally unable to counter the Sonics now legal zone D)
5. a) Coaching can be overestimated in some ways, a good coach knows how to get out of the players way, but he doesn't make the team. Talent makes the team. b) Pop grew in the role. His offensive systems in the early Duncan days were extremely primitive, they just threw the balls into Duncan and waited for him to make something happen. c) Hakeem had 2 HoF coaches, Fitch and Rudy, and that does not seem to have been the difference. They tailed off before Fitch left, and they didn't get immediately better under Rudy either. Hakeem got better as a player. Even if you were to blame coaching for underutilizing Hakeem, it is irrelevant, because we are judging the careers they actually had, not the one they might have had if things had played out differently.
6. See the table on page 1 and point 2. This is actually not even true, especially in the playoffs.
7. Hakeem might have peaked higher, it's certainly a debate you could win, but that was for 2-3 years, and then the rest of his career doesn't stand up to Duncan's prime at all. Nor does he have Duncan's longevity.
8. I'll take Duncan as a better man defender, though Hakeem was better on help D.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#70 » by therealbig3 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:17 am

The Infamous1 wrote:
colts18 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Actually my whole rest of my top 10 is all flipped around from before. Used to have Magic/Bird then Hakeem before Duncan and KG with Shaq in the caboose. Key things:

Magic & Bird drop for me as I've become less able to rationalize their lacking longevity. Still have a ton of respect for the geniuses they were, and frankly they are two guys who may well be even better today, but they had short careers and that hurts them.

Shaq used to be in the back because it was my perception that his laziness had a bigger impact on his impact than it turned out it actually did now that we
See the +/- data. Makes it hard for me to rank anyone ahead if him who he had a clear edge over
With
Either peak or longevity.

Obviously I gavee KG the nod alone over him among this tier which is going out in quite the limb. I look at the data though and he's got himself within close range if Shaq in pact with clearly superior longevity and worlds better intangibles. The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.

That leaves Hakeem slipping a but because I'm just not as confident about his sustained impact. My best guess is to give him a huge peak but without that kind if "still great bang for your buck" that KG and Dumcan have as old men.

Si vote: Garnett


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If Shaq's attitude was so toxic and KG's the opposite, why did Shaq's team have so much success while KG's teams didn't?

You still haven't answered how many playoff runs do you think Shaq had better than KG's best playoff run or
how many playoff runs Shaq had better than 08 KG.


I'm starting to just think now that Kevin Garnett supporters just don't care about postseason performance. We are talking about players he's being compared to now(Lebron/Shaq/Bird/ Kobe/Magic/Duncan/Hakeem) who have 3,4,5 plus playoff runs better than his Best(04).


Not really, we just feel like KG's impact was fantastic in the playoffs, even if his scoring efficiency fell off. His defense and passing was always there. And when you already have a talented team (which is what most championship caliber supporting casts are), IDK how many other people I'd rather have than KG. He's pretty unbelievable in terms of portability on either side of the ball. His versatility is insane, and he's always been a super unselfish player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#71 » by magicmerl » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:19 am

O_6 wrote:So for me this came down to one of the most classic debates in RealGM Player Comparisons Board history... Hakeem vs. Shaq vs. Duncan

....

Shaq's regular season offense in perspective:
35.2 PP100 -- 16.1 RP100 -- 3.7 AP100 -- .586 TS% -- 26.4 PER -- 115.4 OWS -- 41,918 mins

Sorry to be a pain, but when you post stats like this for one player, would it be possible for you to also post the equivalent stats for the players you are comparing him to?

I'm interested in reading comparisons of the players, not marketing posts.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#72 » by sp6r=underrated » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:19 am

Doctor MJ wrote: The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.


Two questions

1. You correctly point out Shaq's negative personality traits and KS's positive ones. It seems impossible to me that Shaq would have tolerated the level of mis-management that surrounded KG which KG more or less passively accepted. Shaq would have certinally complained before leaving town. I suspect many though not all of the other players in consideration for the T20 range would have either publicly or privately threaten to leave. Is that level of passive acceptance a good thing on KG's front?

2. Why wasn't KG able to galvanize Cassell and Sprewell during their open contract rebellion in 2005?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#73 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:22 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:If Shaq was better than Kobe, why did he have less success in his career, despite: better team mates, a better peak, and a equal prime length? That's a simplistic question, but a telling one IMO. 8-)

Kobe is one of the few stars who had more help than Shaq over his career (and worse results relative to expectations. It's also just obvious who the better player was between the two. From 99-04 the Lakers had a 23-26 record in games Shaq missed but Kobe played. During the same period the Lakers record with Shaq and without Kobe was 30-10. Without Shaq Kobe disintegrated in 05-07, where his support casts were not always so bad (certainly not worse than what Shaq tended to have in the games Kobe was injured from 99-04), and in games without Pau or Bynum in 08 the Lakers were barely above 500.

I can think of few stars who have been given more talent over their careers than Kobe. Shaq exceeded expectations way more than Kobe, who we shouldn't even be discussing until #11 IMO.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#74 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:30 am

ThaRegul8r wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Thinking of Latrell Sprewell here...


Hmm... interesting choice.

Could you expound a bit for me? I'm having some trouble getting my hands around it.


This well formulated argument by 3Pac really captured me: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1331542

I'll quote:

3Pac wrote:why: he choke the guy haha has lebron ever choke a guy? has kevin durant ever choke the guy? has deron willmar ever choke the guy? no. case is close.


The case is close for sure. Some of the posts in this thread have swayed me that a Sprewell vote is a tad too early.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#75 » by therealbig3 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:32 am

The more and more I think about this spot...it's between Shaq and Hakeem for me, and even though I voted for Shaq last time, I'm gonna wait and read some more posts before I pick one this time around. The way I see it: Shaq was better offensively, Hakeem was better defensively. But a lot of the Hakeem arguments are that he was comparable to Shaq offensively, which means his defense becomes the tiebreaker. However, I'm not sure I agree with that.

One common argument for Hakeem is his skillset and his ability to create from anywhere. If you could prevent Shaq from getting the ball, you could take him out of the game. Not so with Hakeem. My rebuttal to that would be that although Hakeem had the skills, he wasn't any more efficient than Shaq, nor did he really score on any more volume than Shaq. Another argument would be that because of Hakeem's ability to create from anywhere, he could create for teammates in a way Shaq couldn't. My rebuttal to that would also be that Shaq was a better passer than Hakeem, and his mere presence warped a defense more than anything Hakeem did. Shaq simply being on the court meant that everyone had to pay attention to him. He couldn't be guarded 1 on 1, so when he caught it, he scored, drew fouls, or drew double and triple teams. Or, the defense put all their effort into denying him the ball, which opened things up for his teammates even more.

Speaking of drawing fouls...that's really the one area that you could say was a weakness for Hakeem. Even disregarding hack-a-Shaq, O'Neal drew WAY more fouls than Olajuwon. Hakeem was actually a little too enamored with his turnaround jumper a lot of the time, and he wasn't very impressive at all in terms of getting to the line. Not only is he not giving himself easier opportunities to score, he's not getting opposing players in foul trouble, nor is he getting his team into the bonus earlier (which benefits his entire team).

I think all of this together gives Shaq the edge on offense. But again, Hakeem's defense was pretty awesome, and was certainly better than Shaq's.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#76 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:33 am

O_6's tremendous post on Shaq kind of has me thinking Shaq over Hakeem here. It was so close for me in the previous thread that I'm not sure what to do with them.

LeBron does enter into this, too. I think perhaps before Magic and Bird as well.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#77 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:34 am

90sAllDecade wrote:I disagree the Rockets were "brimming" with talent those years and that is your subjective opinion. I brought objective evidence to support my argument.

Otis Thorpe was clearly a better player than anyone on the 02 and 03 Spurs by a large margin. He was an all-star big man who over his first 4 years with Houston averaged 17-10-3 on awesome efficiency. He played good D and could hit the jump shot. Even if D.Rob was better than Thorpe in 01 (arguable), he wasn't having a bigger impact because Thorpe was playing an extra 10mpg. You have 0 impact in minutes you're not able to play because your body is too tired. So right from the bat, Hakeem's 2nd best player was clearly better. But then he's got other players too. In 1990 for instance he had Sleepy Floyd, still in his prime at age 29, who had been an all-star several years earlier. And Hakeem had both these guys the year before. To add to them he had an above average player in Mad Max, and several solid to good role players. The team won 41 games. I don't see how you can compare what Hakeem was doing that year to Duncan carrying rubbish teams to 58-60 wins and contention/a title. The Rockets were 28-20 in games Hakeem missed over 91-92. How can you argue his team was bad when they had a winning record without him? It's absurd. Can anyone even imagine the 01-03 Spurs playing at a 48 win pace without him? In 92 of course he got other guys like Kenny Smith, and later Horry, Cassell, etc, were added, but I think there's less wiggle room to look at the 87-92 period year by year, where the results are clearly a huge disappointment. Nor were MVP voters really taking Hakeem seriously, they frequently had other guys ahead of him. He just wasn't ranked the way you are trying to claim retrospectively. It wasn't until 93 that Hakeem figured it out and became that guy consistently.

I also spent a great deal of time explaining why you need to look at players holistic value, not just try to ignore it by saying "ok, he sucked, but he was good on D, so his overall suckiness no longer matters".

You keep throwing out names like Manu and Parker without recognising they were not Manu and Parker in 03. You even mention Kawhi Leonard (why?) who didn't play with prime Tim Duncan.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#78 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:34 am

This is between Shaq and Hakeem for me. I'll read some of the post here to get a refresher on the arguments between those two.

Hate to sound like a hater, but again, Magic has no argument for me here. Yes, no argument. (well, feel free to present your case of course :lol:, but I seriously doubt I can be convinced to put Magic this high)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#79 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:38 am

colts18 wrote:Another plus for Shaq is how well he led his team when Kobe was injured. Every time Kobe was injured, the Lakers wouldn't miss a beat including 2000 when the Lakers had a 6.61 SRS without Kobe. The games missed show that Shaq was really impactful and clearly the best player on his team during that time.

Games Kobe missed and Shaq played in, 98-04:

28-6 (.824, 68 win pace)
5.90 SRS

Games Shaq missed, 98-04:
33-31 (.516, 42 win pace)
0.58 SRS


But the team was clearly built more for Shaq than Kobe. You take Kobe off for a few games and you still have some spacing and halfway decent shooting, plus the triangle makes the offense somewhat unpredictable anyway, so in the regular season, Kobe's creativity becomes less important. You take Shaq away and the team has no other C on the roster and small power forwards. Their rebounding and interior defense goes away.

Don't get me wrong. I think Shaq is clearly superior to Kobe. And I think Shaq has a legit argument for #5. But this argument doesn't take into account the context of team construction, and quite frankly doesn't say much about Shaq himself so much as it does about how the Lakers were constructed back then.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#80 » by SactoKingsFan » Wed Jul 9, 2014 2:47 am

shutupandjam wrote:I really think LeBron deserves to be getting some traction at this point. He has been the clear best player in the league for longer than anyone since Jordan, 4 MVPs (only the top 4 on this list have more, no one else has as many), 2 Finals MVPs.

Probably the most versatile player of all time. He scores and gets his teammates involved at rates practically never seen. He can play at least four positions on both sides of the ball. You can easily build a team around him and he can literally transform a bottom feeder into a title contender. I don't believe any player in history would have made his Cleveland teams consistently among the league's best (though I acknowledge those teams were built around him). After his departure, a 61 win team became a 19 win team (has this ever happened?)


I'm seriously considering LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, Hakeem and Garnett for the #5 spot. Leaning towards Shaq or LeBron due their top 5 peaks and impressive primes, but that could changed after I compare them more to Duncan, Hakeem and KG.

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