Doctor MJ wrote:ElGee wrote:Really? it was "obvious" who played better between Dirk and James last year in the Finals?
Based on what? Can you elaborate?
Hmm, sounds you've got some pent up thought on this for us.
I can't imagine you are in doubt why most people were underwhelmed by LeBron during that series. He took a back seat to Wade, and then seemed quite passive later on when the team really needed him to alpha. I understand the reasons for the former - but it's not exactly something that's going to earn him "MVP points", and when you connect that to an actual failure on his part, it is a real issue.
I understand that Dirk wasn't as impressive in the finals as he had been at some earlier times, but he still looked like a star out there.
If Miami wins the series, you don't say "it's obvious." No one does. This, despite Dirk playing exactly the same. This is nothing I haven't said before. It's Winning Bias.
I don't object to concluding Dirk was better. I object to the "obvious" part that everyone assumes. If we put up a poll between two fairly close performances that were both wins, the results on who played better would be close to split. If we put up a poll on who was better in last year's Finals, the numbers would approach 100% for Dirk. That's whacky. It's the result of Winning Bias.
GmSc 16.3 to 13.3
EV 0.5 to -0.6
Offensive EV 0.5 to 1.5
James played 43 minutes to Dirks' 40 so Dirk needed to be 8% better on impact per minute to equal LeBron. Dirk's role in the Mavs offensive was to run as a primary scoring hub/threat, not turn it over much and shoot the hell out of the ball. He averaged 23 pts/100 on 53.7% TS. Averages only tell so much in a 7-gamer though:
G1 27 pts 58% TS 7.9% TOV 5 OC 6 FD
G2 24 pts 51.5% TS 17.7% TOV 7 OC 5 FD
G3 34 pts 68.1% TS 13.4% TOV 3 OC 5 FD
G4 21 pts 44.9% TS 11.4% TOV 4 OC 4 FD
G5 29 pts 64.7% TS 8.2% TOV 4 OC 6 FD
G6 21 pts 37.7% TS 6.7% TOV 1 OC 0 FD
Dirk's last game was especially horrible, and it's something he himself seemed to be the only one to comment on. The series was really an offensive lowpoint for him in many regards since 2007 vs. GS after about 6 or 7 great shooting series. Compare to LeBron, who was an all-around defensive dynamo and an all-around offensive catalyst heading into the Finals:
G1 24-9-5 71% TS 5.6% TOV 8 OC 3 FD
G2 20-8-4 59.7% TS 23.0% TOV 3 OC 5 FD
G3 17-3-9 53.9% TS 20.2% TOV 7 OC 2 FD
G4 8-9-7 31.3% TS 23.9% TOV 13 OC 5 FD
G5 17-10-10 42.8% TS 16.8% TOV 14 OC 6 FD
G6 21-4-6 62.6% TS 26.4% TS 6 OC 2 FD
By Offensive EV
G1 James 10.1 Dirk 5.4
G2 Dirk 2.0, James 1.5
G3 Dirk 9.4 James 1.9
G4 James 2.3 Dirk -1.3
G5 Dirk 7.7 James 4.0
G6 James 3.2 Dirk -6.2
Throughout the series, James created more offense than any player on either team (11 OC/100). Dirk had his teammates set up slightly more of his offense (11% 2's, 43% 3's to James 9% 2's, 33% 3's).
James had 3 better games by this metric, Dirk had 3. James crushed Dirk in G6 and was solidly better in G1. Dirk crushed James in G3 and was comfortably better in G5. LeBron's failures in this series extended to the defensive end, where his ridiculous impact wasn't felt. People made way more shots against him than normal. Of course, he failed to pressure the defense quite as much as he normally does (drew fewer fouls) but you can see in a number of games he does some significant damage (14 opportunities created and 6 fouls drawn is monstrous - he had 34 OC's and 33 FD's in 5 games v Chi for comparison.)
All told, it's close. My point is, what on earth makes it
obvious? If we watched all 466 James possessions and all 431 Dirk possessions, and just watched those two guys -- we didn't have a scoreboard, or even cared when a teammates shot went in, or about foul shots, etc. -- I don't think there would be anything "obvious" about who was better.
), but I think there's something to that in the 2011 Finals. LeBron seemed to play well through the first 3 quarters, and then when the 4th quarter rolled around, LeBron seemed to flip a switch and not do anything, almost intentionally. It was weird to watch.