Retro Player of the Year Project

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not arguing the value of Bird over Magic. I'm questioning how Magic shows up that high on the total list when he stands out as having very few seasons (1) of PoY.

I honestly have no idea what you're confused about. One can argue about whether the votings were right or not, but the ranking here is done strictly by adding POY shares from all years. Are you suggesting something different should have been done?

[Sedale Threatt]

If you followed the discussion I was asking if it was cumulative. I thought maybe they took your totals for the years you were in and came up with a percentage average. It wasn't.

I did follow the discussion. I didn't see what you're complaining about then, and I don't know now. The point totals were tallied, and those were the results. Nobody picked anybody over anyone. I'll make you an offer, though: If you want to start a petition to protest 2 plus 2 equalling 4, I would be down with that. That has always irritated me.

[JordansBulls]

I'm not arguing the value of Bird over Magic. I'm questioning how Magic shows up that high on the total list when he stands out as having very few seasons (1) of PoY.

I honestly have no idea what you're confused about. One can argue about whether the votings were right or not, but the ranking here is done strictly by adding POY shares from all years. Are you suggesting something different should have been done?

Not sure what other way to do so. I do agree that it is easier to finish higher with fewer players in the league and fewer teams than with a lot more players/teams.

[nonemus]

RPOY Reflections

Before this project, I didn't have a good grasp on an all-time ranking. Frankly, the criteria seems fuzzy and a bit arbitrary to me. But extending this project's criteria has me thinking about many player's places in an all-time hierarchy of worth...which player gives his team the greatest chance to win over his career?

(Note: I'm not even sure this is the best criteria for the nebulous "all-time rankings" -- what if Michael Jordan were hurt every spring? Would it completely eradicate his greatness as a basketball player? I tend to think there is something intuitive when we ask the all-time question in sports. Gale Sayers played 5 years of football, but he was absolutely magical. He was just selected No. 22 in the NFL Network's top 100 list. I believe Dr. MJ calls this the "who impressed me" intuition.)

POY Shares provide a good ballpark for estimating a player's relative contribution toward a title every year. Nerd Alert For me, the more interesting way to view these results macroscopically would be to assign a weight to each season's difficulty and then within each season estimate the probability each player increases every team's championship's odds by if he were added to every roster.

For instance, 1987 was a pretty darn difficult year to win a title. 1973...well, there was massive expansion and two leagues.

For each player's "Championship Probability," there would no longer be a fixed relationship between first and second place votes and between first place votes across years. That means in, say, 1975 the No. 1 player (Bob McAdoo for me) might not be as good as the No. 6 player in 2006. In the RPOY project, McAdoo earned 10 points and Kobe Bryant 0 in that situation. Using this method, McAdoo and Bryant might have the same Championship Probability score despite relative standing among peers.

I'm in the process of using the above criteria to iron out a career weighted POY share value/all-time ranking...
--

With that said, I gained a massive appreciation for Bird, Kareem, Russell, and to a degree Jordan.

I maintained a high opinion of Magic, Duncan, KG and Jerry West.

I was truly impressed with the longevity of Karl Malone, Dr. J, Kareem and Russell.

I'm not as high on the following players: Robinson, Stockton, Wilkins, Isiah, Moses, and most notably, Wilt.

There were also a number of other players of lesser historical recognition who had shorter peaks who impressed me: Wade, Nash, King, Marques Johnson, David Thompson and Clyde Frazier come to mind. (Nash and Wade because their play became more impressive to me as we went back through time.)

Once you are done posting all the data behind your top 50 list (I check for updates everyday :p), you should definitely make a thread about it.

[ElGee]

^^^ Hey nonemus - it's linked in my sig below. If you think it warrants a threads, feel free - it might spark some discussion as I found some of realgm's top 100 results utterly bizarre after doing it. It's just really a reflection of how I think of this players, using the RPOY criteria, over the length of their career (delineated by individual seasons, so injury rules still apply). The numerical values are certainly an approximation, although I'm happy with them.

[nonemus]

^^^ Hey nonemus - it's linked in my sig below. If you think it warrants a threads, feel free - it might spark some discussion as I found some of realgm's top 100 results utterly bizarre after doing it. It's just really a reflection of how I think of this players, using the RPOY criteria, over the length of their career (delineated by individual seasons, so injury rules still apply). The numerical values are certainly an approximation, although I'm happy with them.

So the numbers for peak play is purely subjective? As in, there's no forumula involved?

[ElGee]

^^^ Hey nonemus - it's linked in my sig below. If you think it warrants a threads, feel free - it might spark some discussion as I found some of realgm's top 100 results utterly bizarre after doing it. It's just really a reflection of how I think of this players, using the RPOY criteria, over the length of their career (delineated by individual seasons, so injury rules still apply). The numerical values are certainly an approximation, although I'm happy with them.

So the numbers for peak play is purely subjective? As in, there's no forumula involved?

There is a formula, actually, but it only servers to give me an approximately desired output. The numbers I plugged in were based on my categorizations of players as we went through the project. The final step was a small adjustment for the league strength at the team.

The formula itself is nonlinear, because IMO in basketball the better an individual is the greater he can impact the game. Put a focused, passionate, well-coached Chamberlain with just about any team in the mid 60s, remove Bill Russell from the league, and that team is pretty darn likely to win a title. Conversely, I think adding Reggie Miller to any team is never going to increase their odds of winning the title by too much.

[Doctor MJ]

There is a formula, actually, but it only servers to give me an approximately desired output.

The dirty little secret of any sophisticated formula along these lines.

That's why I was so adamant about keeping the raw RPOY share formula refreshingly dumb.

(Not that I'm against more sophisticated formulas, I just like having the dumb formula as the foundation)

[nonemus]

Why were the threads merged? At least the summary should be merged into the OP of this thread...

[penbeast0]

done

[Dr Positivity]

So are we planning to do another top 100? It's been a while

[penbeast0]

Absolutely, I just was planning on waiting to the offseason so we don't get sidetracked by current events too badly . . . we would have started last offseason but the RPOY project was too interesting and didn't want to distract people from it.

[fatal9]

Wish I had known about this during the 80s. Only joined when you guys were at '77 I think. '85 was a really interesting year, thought KAJ got underrated a bit, should have got more consideration to be over Magic (his +/- in the playoffs was ridiculous compared to Magic and Worthy, I can still share those stats if anyone wants to see them). Actually very difficult to pick the best Laker player that season. Thought McHale deserved to be top 5 in '86 or '87. Surprised so few mentioned Bird's elbow injury during the playoffs in '85. You can watch the finals and ECF, he doesn't look right. Some of the worst shooting I've seen from him (shot 41.9% vs. Sixers and poorly against Lakers as well).

Glad to see Hakeem was over Barkley in '93. He was my MVP that season, though POY goes to MJ for his playoff run. I actually like Karl Malone, but he got overrated in some years. Apologize for trailing off at the end of the project but didn't feel comfortable voting in years that I had little knowledge of (like the 50s).

[Doctor MJ]

Wish I had known about this during the 80s. Only joined when you guys were at '77 I think. '85 was a really interesting year, thought KAJ got underrated a bit, should have got more consideration to be over Magic (his +/- in the playoffs was ridiculous compared to Magic and Worthy, I can still share those stats if anyone wants to see them).

Please do.

[fatal9]

Here are +/- of Magic/KAJ/Worthy during the playoff run. I didn't do the first round as I didn't have one of the games, but it was inconsequential anyways as they faced an injury riddled sub .500 Suns team. I did this a while ago, felt like I had to to show KAJ's value after I watched the playoff games. The Blazer series was actually from an article from LA times that looked at +/- to show KAJ and Cooper's value (if you want to read it, I can post it) while rest of the +/- I recorded while watching the games (I think I did save in the document when they went in and out if someone wants to check the stats).

WCSF vs. Blazers:

KAJ: +14.4 ppg when on. -3.4 ppg when off. Net +17.8
Magic: + 9.6 ppg when on. +1.4 ppg when off. Net +8.2
Worthy: +9.2 ppg when on. +1.8 ppg when off. Net +7.4


WCF vs. Nuggets +/- stats and on/off:

KAJ: +19 ppg when on, -7.2 when off. Net +26.2.
Magic: +14 ppg when on, -2.2 when off. Net +16.2.
Worthy: +6.4 ppg when on, +5.4 when off. Net +1.

Finals vs. Celtics:

Kareem – +7.83 ppg when on. -5.17 ppg when off. Net = +13.
Magic – +5.83 ppg when on. -3.17 ppg when off. Net = + 9.
Worthy – +3.83 ppg when on. – 1.17 ppg when off. Net = +5.

Total for playoffs:

KAJ = +214. +13.38 ppg when on. -5.25 ppg when off. Net = +18.6
Magic = +153. +9.56 ppg when on. -1.44 ppg when off. Net = +11
Worthy = +101. +6.31 ppg when on. +1.81 ppg when off. Net = +4.5

The results are just so consistent and the separation between KAJ and the next Laker is huge. Just don't think Magic was hands down the best player on the team as the voting would suggest.

Regarding KAJ and Magic, I and seems like most people at the time thought it was 1A and 1B. Kareem was the #1 option on offense, their best half court player, the only player on the team who was regularly double teamed (opened up outside shots for Cooper and Scott, often didn't get an assist as the ball swings after he kicks it out), and while not being as great as he once was defensively, his length was still a huge factor in changing shots around the rim. Magic's role goes without saying, dominate in transition, rebound, run the offense, create plays. I don't view '85 Magic the same way I do '87 Magic ('87 version was a much much better half court player). Realistically, there was only one team they had to beat to get the championship and Kareem was who put them over the top. Magic could be relied on to be a 36+ minute guy and do the heavy lifting minutes wise, while Kareem at that stage of his career probably couldn't. That might have been what it came down for most voters in the end, but I find it near impossible to say who the best player on that team was. Even looking at their PER (which I'm not a big fan of but it adjusts for minutes), it is virtually identical for the two in both the RS and playoffs (both had major intangibles they brought to the team, Kareem was a bigger defensive presence however).

[lorak]

+/- with small samples and unajusted is very noisy and could be tricky. For example in 2009 playoffs Odom was the best Lakers player according to +/-

[Mean_Streets]

My final thoughts on this wonderful project.

- Kobe should have definitely been #1 for 2008
- I also think Jerry West should have been #1 in 1969.
- McHale should have been #5 in '86 over Barkley & #5 in '87 over Dominique.
- I think 1982 is the hardest year to determine the #1 player.

[fatal9]

+/- with small samples and unajusted is very noisy and could be tricky. For example in 2009 playoffs Odom was the best Lakers player according to +/-

That's true, but the results are very consistent series by series and the difference in the margin between KAJ and the next player is huge (Odom was only +1.7 above Kobe, didn't win finals MVP, wasn't putting up similar statistical production, wasn't the #1 option offensively amongst other things).

[lorak]

+/- with small samples and unajusted is very noisy and could be tricky. For example in 2009 playoffs Odom was the best Lakers player according to +/-

That's true, but the results are very consistent series by series

Yes, but probably also results for LAL 2009 are consistent series by series. For sure total for playoffs are very similar to 1985.

and the difference in the margin between KAJ and the next player is huge (Odom was only +1.7 above Kobe,

According to your numbers in 1985 KAJ had +18.7 (+13.4 on, -5.3 off), Magic +11 (+9.6 on, -1.4 off).
According do 82games in 2009 playoffs Odom had +17.1 (+13.2 on, -3.9 off), Kobe +12.0 (+9.3 on, -2.7 off).
So in both cases difference is big.

Bench have huge influence on +/- and probably so big KAJ numbers are results of Lakers weak backup center. I don't remember exactly but who played C for 16 minutes when KAJ was resting? MaCdoo? Kupchak? Rambis? Whoever it was non of them was quality C and IMO that explains KAJ's big +/- numbers.

[fatal9]

According to your numbers in 1985 KAJ had +18.7 (+13.4 on, -5.3 off), Magic +11 (+9.6 on, -1.4 off).
According do 82games in 2009 playoffs Odom had +17.1 (+13.2 on, -3.9 off), Kobe +12.0 (+9.3 on, -2.7 off).

http://www.82games.com/0809/playoffs/0809LAL.HTM

I see Kobe at +13.4. Odom at +15.1 (played off the bench and 9 less minutes). +/- is only one of the things that I mentioned though. Statistically they seem to be close, MVP votes is also pretty close, their roles were equally as valuable (KAJ = dominate half court, Magic = push the pace), one guy was the #1 option on offense and drew the double teams, pushed them over the top against their only real competition (Celtics) when Lakers had to play a slower game, and was a bigger defensive presence. It isn't like I'm taking +/- of a role player and saying he was in argument for best Laker player in '85. Kareem is right there in most of the other categories as well.