Retro POY '99-00 (Voting Complete)

[Sedale Threatt]

If Garnett makes 2 or 3 shots more per game...

I see what you're getting at, but that's not exactly a small thing, is it?

Take a team with a point differential of six. Very respectable. Tack on four or six points, though, and suddenly they're on a completely different tier.

Same thing with players. Adding that many extra points to an average, over the long haul, will have a tremendous difference in their career and how it is perceived.

Granted, we're talking about a very, very small sample size here. But you make it sound like a couple of extra baskets a game is a trivial thing, when in fact it's anything but.

[Doctor MJ]

I think you're missing the point. If a player's season is being determined by 2 possessions per game over 4 games, something's wrong with the evaluation method.

I don't think so. Those 2 possessions are a part of the equation, those two possessions are bringing his average values down. Just focus on everything the player done right, but ignoring the things he done wrong isn't a good evaluation method at all. In average he was a really weak playoff scorer, weak enough to cost his team the chance to win. That cancels his great effort on defense and his passing game out. Might sound a bit harsh, but that is the overall result.

You should also keep in mind that the team ORtg correlates to a mixture of ts% and turnover rate with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.94.

8 possessions out of a season with 800+ possessions should be factored in, but factored in with some idea of proportions in mind. Can it make the difference between who is better between players? Sure. Pretty hard to imagine though that it makes multiple players leapfrog him though.

[mysticbb]

Pretty hard to imagine though that it makes multiple players leapfrog him though.

?

[Tesla]

1. Shaq - no brainer
2. Zo - also no brainer for 2nd IMO.
3. GP - arguably peak GP actually...
4. KGSee.... I really think Karl Malone was still probably just a hair better than KG at this point, especially head2head if they were to match up, but I overall KG was better consistantly, younger, and had better looking stats...
5. Kobe - not a top 5 player this season, probably top 10ish but he had a top 5 successful season when all is included, kind of his coming out party althought his stats weren't guady and he was a clear robin to batman.

Snub: Karl Malone

[Doctor MJ]

Pretty hard to imagine though that it makes multiple players leapfrog him though.

?

In other words: If such a tiny amount of possessions can drop him below another player, it must have been vanishingly close between those two players. For multiple players to be that close would seem extremely unlikely.

So, while it's possible for multiple players to pick up their play and surpass him based on the post-season, if Garnett is dropping multiple slots simply because of poor post-season performance - and your opinion would totally change if the ball hand bounced the other way on a few possessions, you have to consider that maybe you're weighing those few possessions too heavily.

[ElGee]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the possessions don't matter at all, just that these are 8 possessions in the playoffs (of ~800?) and he probably played ~6,000 possessions during the season. So, even narrowing it down to a single game, there probably shouldn't be a situation in NBA history where we say "on these 2 FGA's, if the ball goes in I will conclude 'GREAT GAME!' and if he misses I will conclude 'REALLY BAD GAME!'"

Heck, if he made those 8 shots but had 8 more turnovers (worse than missed FG's because (1) there is no rebound and (2) they lead to easy scores for the opponent) everyone would just look at his TS%, see it as solid, and wouldn't have the same criticism.

And again, this goes for all players, not just KG.

No one has mentioned Garnett didn't get to the line at all in 2 games or how he missed those shots (my recollection was it was tough for him to get good looks). That's more consistent, and reflective, of his overall play throughout every possession than being results-oriented over an incredibly small sample of FGA's.

EDIT: This is correct Sedale, but the small sample is key here in how this is being weighted. KG's scoring efficiency was actually quite good for the first 81 games.

I see what you're getting at, but that's not exactly a small thing, is it?

Take a team with a point differential of six. Very respectable. Tack on four or six points, though, and suddenly they're on a completely different tier.

Same thing with players. Adding that many extra points to an average, over the long haul, will have a tremendous difference in their career and how it is perceived.

Granted, we're talking about a very, very small sample size here. But you make it sound like a couple of extra baskets a game is a trivial thing, when in fact it's anything but.

[ElGee]

Also, for those who have Kobe No. 5, are the injuries not a concern? 16 games in the regular season is a decent amount, but he was injured again in the Finals. I have Kobe right there in the top 6-8, but I'm curious how this is being considered, if at all.

[Doctor MJ]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the possessions don't matter at all, just that these are 8 possessions in the playoffs (of ~800?) and he probably played ~6,000 possessions during the season.

To be clear: A team gets ~100 possessions per game, there's ~80 games per year, so ~800 possessions for the year.

[ronnymac2]

Final Vote:

Shaquille O'neal
Karl Malone
Alonzo Mourning
Gary Payton
Kevin Garnett

Honorable Mentions: Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Reggie Miller


Tim Hardaway swayed me to put Alonzo above the Glove. I think we were seeing a new Alonzo Mourning. This is the best we ever saw, and was likely the best we were going to see anyway, but I think Alonzo from this season does get underrated a bit. It wasn't just a different year for him- he was a different player.

I rank prime GP as just a little below prime Patrick Ewing. Prime ZO is just a little worse than prime Pat, too. As players, I see GP and ZO as basically even this year. Alonzo was a little bit more recognized though and went further into the playoffs. He played as well as one would expect in a slow, pure grind-it-out series that was the Knicks-Heat rivalry. All defense. The Knicks had some really nice edges on the wings with prime Houston and prime Spree vs. Miami's old, injured, inconsistent, talented perimeter players. Alonzo did his job. He put up 29-13-5 in game 7.

I'm putting Karl Malone over Payton and Mourning because I think this is the last year where Karl Malone is really Karl Malone. Minge had a great post in the other thread citing how effective Malone's defense could be. Even in 2000, he was still one of the best low-post defenders in the league, had great hands for stripping the ball away, was a good defensive rebounder, and was a tenacious enforcer. That's not a pure defensive anchor a la Mourning or Mutombo, but it qualifies as a co-anchor imo.

His offense was fantastic, too. I don't see much critique of the Jazz supporting cast during the Portland series. Malone had to drag that Jazz team through a very pedestrian Seattle team (Payton played great, and that was about it). Payton was clearly superior to Stockton. Then, against Portland, nobody does much of anything against the Blazers. Stockton produces very little in the four losses. I'm not sure how Malone is supposed to do something more. Malone still produced and got to the line a ton against Sheed, Grant, Sabonis, and Pippen on the frontline. That's one of the biggest, toughest frontlines in recent memory, and Malone fought them with no offensive help. With his offensive sidekick refusing to take more than 10 shots or get to the free throw line. His team lost to a superior team.

Nobody is saying Malone is Shaq or Jabbar, but he didn't not deliver against Portland.

I'll take his offense over Zo's and GP's, and he's good enough on defense at this point where he edges them out. Those 3 are close.

I'm taking KG fifth. Why? Duncan and Hill were hurt. I don't believe Kobe was at THAT LEVEL for the entire season, and even in the playoffs, he still could have inconsistent play (though he saved our ass a few times, too). Getting hurt in the finals and missing a game doesn't help (though he saved us in gm 4). KG edges Kobe out.

Iverson shot poorly from the free throw line for a wing player getting to the line as much as him. He doesn't do much else at an elite level, so he needs all the advantages he can get. He wasn't as dominant in the playoffs as in 01, and doesn't get the accolades and team success tiebreaker advantage, so....

Nobody else argued for Reggie. I think he deserves more mention than what he has got. With all he did that year, and his great playoff run (again, 24 pgg on 60 ts% over 22 game sample size, 3.3 OWS, and in the final 3 rounds he played in, he played against 3 of the top 6 defensive teams that year ito defensive rating), including getting to the finals, I think he could have been a player here.

Garnett had a great year and was a great player, but people here are underrating his supporting cast just a little bit and overrating the player he was. He gets a top 5 spot, but I mean, it's not crazy to think ZO/Malone/GP/Kobe belong higher, like some posters are making it out to be.

[tha_rock220]

1. Shaq
2. Duncan
3. Malone
4. Grant Hill
5. Iverson

[ElGee]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the possessions don't matter at all, just that these are 8 possessions in the playoffs (of ~800?) and he probably played ~6,000 possessions during the season.

To be clear: A team gets ~100 possessions per game, there's ~80 games per year, so ~800 possessions for the year.

hahaha. "Doctor MJ."

[NO-KG-AI]

I just think a shooting drop is not nearly as detrimental as it is for someone like Malone for instance.

Anyway:

Voting

1. Shaquille O'Neal
2. Alonzo Mourning
3. Kevin Garnett
4. Gary Payton
5. Karl Malone

Shaq is easy number 1.

Zo is close enough in the regular season that I can feel comfy putting him ahead of KG because of his post season.

Garnett is above Payton and Malone because he was far enough ahead to keep him ahead, because Payton got as far as Garnett did, and I don't think he impacts a game on either end as well as much as Garnett.

Malone was well behind in regular season, and I think KG and his team actually did a little better than the Jazz against Rasheed and the Blazers, and that's the common factor.

Duncan would probably be 2/3 had he stayed healthy. Kobe wasn't up to snuff in the regular season, missed games, and just wasn't that guy yet.

[mysticbb]

In other words: If such a tiny amount of possessions can drop him below another player, it must have been vanishingly close between those two players. For multiple players to be that close would seem extremely unlikely.

Well, I actually wanted to know which are the "multiple players"? Imho Garnett wasn't any better than Malone or Mourning in the regular season. In fact I think he was for sure worse. The only one we can discuss about is Duncan, who didn't play in the playoffs. I don't think Garnett done anything in the playoffs which would justify to call his season "better" in comparison to his regular season. In fact he performed worse.

Heck, if he made those 8 shots but had 8 more turnovers (worse than missed FG's because (1) there is no rebound and (2) they lead to easy scores for the opponent) everyone would just look at his TS%, see it as solid, and wouldn't have the same criticism.

Well, in that case he would have a worse turnover rate. His ts% would go up to 48.7 (still bad) instead of 44.1, but his to-r would go from 8.4 to 14.5. It wouldn't make his overall performance anymore efficient. The Timberwolves would still be in a bad spot, just this time because Garnett turned the ball over too much AND couldn't score at least average efficient.

[Baller 24]

I'm looking more and more into it, and I don't really see a reason for why Bryant should go over Payton, Garnett, or Malone at this point. It's obvious they all had strong RS, but if we're knocking on Duncan for missing 8 games during the regular season, Bryant missed twice as much, while he did show up in the playoffs in a big way, I don't think he was THAT big to justify his pick over Garnett, Malone, or Payton. If there are reasons, I'd definitely like to hear them.

[An Unbiased Fan]

To me, total games(RS + PS) played is a better guide. A long playoff run makes up for missed regular season games, since playoff games are of higher importance. Kobe is on par with the others using this metric, kinda like Shaq was in the early 00's where he missed games.

For example, Pau Gasol only played 65 games this year, but in no way should that diminish his play if LA makes a long title run. 17 playoff games > 17 regular season games.

I would also add that playoff performance weighs heavier for me than regular season. That's why KG dropped to #6 for me, and Why I didn't put Dirk at #1 in 2007.

[An Unbiased Fan]

double

[ElGee]

In other words: If such a tiny amount of possessions can drop him below another player, it must have been vanishingly close between those two players. For multiple players to be that close would seem extremely unlikely.

Well, I actually wanted to know which are the "multiple players"? Imho Garnett wasn't any better than Malone or Mourning in the regular season. In fact I think he was for sure worse. The only one we can discuss about is Duncan, who didn't play in the playoffs. I don't think Garnett done anything in the playoffs which would justify to call his season "better" in comparison to his regular season. In fact he performed worse.

Heck, if he made those 8 shots but had 8 more turnovers (worse than missed FG's because (1) there is no rebound and (2) they lead to easy scores for the opponent) everyone would just look at his TS%, see it as solid, and wouldn't have the same criticism.

Well, in that case he would have a worse turnover rate. His ts% would go up to 48.7 (still bad) instead of 44.1, but his to-r would go from 8.4 to 14.5. It wouldn't make his overall performance anymore efficient. The Timberwolves would still be in a bad spot, just this time because Garnett turned the ball over too much AND couldn't score at least average efficient.

I know you would notice the turnover rate. My point was others wouldn't and are placing too much emphasis on that stat over four games.

[ElGee]

My 2000 POY Ballot:

1. Shaquille O'Neal
2. Karl Malone
3. Gary Payton
4. Alonzo Mourning
5. Kevin Garnett

I think Malone is a fairly comfortable No. 2. Still seeing really strong team results, quality (underrated?) defensive impact, and as always great offensive results in that Sloan system. Between his passing and his crafty defense, I'm wondering if Malone wasn't at his peak in these later years despite his age. Anyway...

Payton was amazing all year, carrying a mediocre team. I thought this was his best season. No one has mentioned it, his game 4 against Utah to stay alive: 35 points 10 rebounds 11 assists 6 steals 63% TS. Wow.

I've been sold to a degree about Mourning -- I thought Tim's post about his health was germane. I'm trying to reward players for performance, so while I definitely would take Tim Duncan over Mourning, Mourning gets credit for his performance that year.

KG is fifth -- this was the year he sort of exploded onto the scene, and I don't think he was quite the player he would become in the ensuing years. I think it was more than just matchup problems that caused a struggle at times on offense in 2000 followed by a significantly better offensive output in 2001.

(Duncan doesn't make the cut because of the injury.)

[Silver Bullet]

5 bucks says Garnett doesn't make a jumper the rest of the way ...

[Baller 24]

didn't he just make one to give them a lead lol.