Post#97 » by tsherkin » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:45 pm
My $0.02
I don't consider Duncan a PF, I consider him a C, so that's why I exclude him from this conversation. If I didn't, he'd be right up there, but I don't, so I'm not going to talk about him.
For me, that leaves the only three players to discuss as Bosh, Dirk and Gasol.
Pau Gasol is a very good player. He's a nice mix of post game and big perimeter ability. Very good passer, much-improved rebounder, good defender, etc. He's better now than he was in Memphis because he's a second option and has more opportunity to focus on certain things, and because the offense is explicitly designed to favor players of his type. He's not a dominant scorer, not a guy who can anchor a franchise to the highest levels of success, IMO, but he's a brilliant second star.
I think that one must respect his contributions to L.A., but at the same time recognize what it means to have a player of much greater caliber pinning down the team and how that enables him to do what he does. I like Pau as a player, absolutely love watching him play, but I don't think he's the best PF in the league. 2nd or 3rd? Yeah, absolutely. He's better than any non-Dirk/Bosh player at that position, regardless of role. Better than Booz, Jefferson (natural 4, anyhow), Z-Bo, any of them. Very good player. A touch overrated now because he plays for the Lakers and how successful they've been the last three years. Absolutely incredible fit in the triangle and great chemistry with that team.
Bosh, even though he's going to have a statistically unimpressive season as a scorer once Wade comes back, is no less talented than he has been for the last 5 years. This past season, however, is not a typical Bosh season. That was a contract season where he had a super-hot start and had an absolutely blazing beginning to the season. Great overall performance, but not the sort of thing you expect from him year in and year out. Good player. Not the greatest at moving the ball, doesn't facilitate a quick-hitting offense, but he's uber-efficient and he puts in the effort. Say what you like about his thin frame, he's battled pretty hard for Toronto. Not a great defender, but not a bad one. Good, but not great rebounder. Good, but not outstanding, scorer. His scoring average was a bit deceptive last year, because he didn't have the impact typical of a player of that level of scoring. Not what I'd call a take-over scorer. I imagine he'd thrive more in a second-man role (as he's done thus far with Miami) than as a central scorer, but he did pretty damned well for Toronto for a while and without a lot of help.
I don't think he's the best PF in the league, though. This year, I'd be surprised if his averages deviated much from 16/11, though, he's going to have it really easy on offense and will have tons of energy to kill the glass (and a lot of help in that regard, too). He's going to have a great season. Still, he's not quite as good as Gasol. Certainly last season, he was better as a scoring threat than Gasol, but he's never been as diverse, nor as good a passer and he's certainly not been at the same level of defender (though with Zo coaching him and a lighter load on offense, that may change).
And that brings me to Dirk.
Barring regression due to age, which is possible, he's the guy that I think is still the best PF in the game. He's not the rebounder that the other two are... but he also plays on a very good defensive-rebounding team and his style of play precludes him being a good offensive rebounder. He's not a great defender, but he's no worse than Bosh.
For me, what sets him apart is his offensive game. He's pinned down a very successful Dallas team for a long time, and has made several significant changes in his game to compensate for a weakness that was exposed in 06 and 07 vividly. His postseason offense is better than either of those other two, and his regular season offense remains better.
Dirk is basically the best volume shooter from 16-23 feet in the league and remains a very good 3pt shooter, an elite FT shooter and still capable of drawing a fair number of FTAs on any given night with his drives and post game. He has a game that ages extremely well, too, which is big. He is a takeover scorer. Even last year, when he was "only" 1 ppg ahead of Bosh (that's still a significant barrier, though, because it was the 24-to-25 barrier), Nowitzki scored 30+ in a larger proportion of his games, about 5% more often. He also had three 40+-point games to Bosh's 2, but Chris only played 70 games to Dirk's 81, so that might've been different if Bosh had been healthier. Of course, Bosh might not have maintained his lofty average had he played 10+ more games.
In any case, Dirk is a more dangerous scorer. He can work faster, he has more scoring zones than Bosh (even under the arc, but also mindful of the 3 being a consistently useful tool for Dirk), and Nowitzki is way clutch, which is something you can't really say about Bosh. Certainly, I don't mean to say that Bosh is a liability or that he's not capable of clutch play, but The Diggler is actually a noted crunch-time performer. And again, playoff offense HEAVILY favors Dirk, who's been much, much better in the postseason than Bosh and of course, he's a much deadlier scorer than Gasol period.
So, barring a notable regression from Dirk, he's still the guy I'd choose.
Remember, this is a guy who's scored 25+ ppg 5 times in his career and is one of the very few players to have scored 25+ ppg while being over 6'9. Only 15 players in league history have qualified for the scoring title, played 40+ games and scored 25+ ppg while being 6'10 or taller. Only 13 of them have done is since Kareem did it in 80-81 (so not including that season).
Only FOUR of them have done it 5+ times (Dirk, Shaq, Wilt and Kareem).
Now, Dirk's a 58% TS player in the regular season, which is elite. In the playoffs, he's a 25.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg player on 57.9% TS. He loses almost no efficiency and scores around the level of his best regular-season scoring efforts. This past year in that first-round loss, he rocked 26.7 ppg (and way lower-than-usual rebounding because of Kidd, Marion and Dampier/Haywood, 3 of whom averaged 6+ rpg in the playoffs while Dirk still led the team).
On 64.3% TS.
He is a DOMINANT playoff scoring threat, which is absolutely not true of these other guys. That's the big separation, and that's why he gets the nod here. Dirk is a big-time (and underrated) playoff performer. He's HUGE in the playoffs on a regular basis and he is the most dominant scoring big man since Shaq, which is impressive, to say the least.
Neither Bosh nor Gasol has the wherewithal to take over a game on offense the way Dirk does on a regular basis, nor the ability to produce in the clutch to the same level.