Last 10 seconds - Lebron vs Kobe

Imadogg · Post #1 » by **Imadogg** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 12:49 pm

I'm sure you guys have seen the stat of this year's Miami Heat: In the last 10 seconds of the 4th or overtime, with the Heat tied or down 1-3pts (one FG), the Heat are shooting 1-18 this season...

We've seen some numbers and blah blah come out showing how Kobe isn't that clutch, or whatever with clutch being defined in various ways (last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, each team up or down 5... etc).

I like the 10 second clutch stat (FGM-FGA in the last 10 seconds of the 4th or OT, with the player's team tied or down 1-3) as a different look on things than we've had in the past because:
A. That means it's basically last second shot time
B. It's when your team is tied or down one shot.. which is much different and feels different than you getting a FGA with your team up 3. In this definition, if you miss, you lose or go into OT for sure basically.

I took it upon myself to go through ESPN play-by-plays of Lebron and Kobe (for obvious reasons) to see what the stats show under this definition of clutch.

Lebron and Kobe's "Last 10sec" Clutch stats for 07-08 til present.

Lebron James
07-08: 5-11 (45.5%)
08-09: 1-4 (25%)
09-10: 1-8 (12.5%)
10-11: 1-8 (12.5%)
Total (through last 4 seasons): 8-31 (25.8%)

Kobe Bryant
07-08: 1-3 (33.3%)
08-09: 2-6 (33.3%)
09-10: 7-11 (63.6%)
10-11: 1-3 (33.3%)
Total (through last 4 seasons): 11-23 (47.8%)

I'll keep updating.

TRWJINC · Post #2 » by **TRWJINC** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 1:20 pm

I would Take Paul Pierce

Imadogg · Post #3 » by **Imadogg** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 1:22 pm

TRWJINC wrote:I would Take Paul Pierce

If I get time, I'm gonna try to update with Pierce/Melo/Wade/Durant. Best case scenario, back to 03-04 season. Depends how lazy I get.

But yea gonna try to compare to other players as well.

SKR · Post #4 » by **SKR** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 1:28 pm

Dirk or Terry

J08 · Post #5 » by **J08** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 1:56 pm

kobe could have had 2/20 i would still take him over lbj for a clutch shot.

i dont cringe when kobe has the ball in the crunch.

LAKESHOW · Post #6 » by **LAKESHOW** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 2:03 pm

theres just an F-U factor that kobe has when he has the ball. sometimes F-U in NOT passing to a teammate. or an F-U in splashing in an opponents face. or an F-U to some fans on the sideline. lbj does not have that yet.

ChefKen · Post #7 » by **ChefKen** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 2:29 pm

we'll see that tomorrow!
but i'll take Mamba in a heartbeat!:8)

Not Bias · Post #8 » by **Not Bias** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 2:48 pm

The most surprising thing to me is that Kobe has only taken 3 shots this year while Lebron's taken 8. Has Kobe missed time this year? You would think that a guy with Dwayne Wade on his team would take less last second shots.

Post #9 » by **Flash3** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 3:20 pm

I don't care how much time is left on the clock. The only 3 people in the league I want shooting a clutch shot when my team needs it the most are:

Kobe
Wade
Durant

And in this order.

ropjhk · Post #10 » by **ropjhk** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 3:25 pm

A last second clutch shooter isn't someone who actually gets better when the game is on the line (the thought that a player performs at his best only in the last second is absurd) but instead is someone who doesn't play any worse when the game is on the line. So 50% shooting for Kobe in those situations seems about right.

We've seen Lebron falter in tight situations for a long time now. Remember when people used to make such a big deal about his poor free throw shooting in the clutch? Lebron doesn't seem to have that no fear mentality needed to perform his best when the stakes are highest. Call it the clutch gene, or whatever you want.

Jordan has it. Kobe has it. Adam Vinatieri has it. Lebron doesn't seem to have it.

Some players relish the opportunity to be the hero. Others fear the risk of failure.

Post #11 » by **Next Coming** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 3:40 pm

Flash3 wrote:I don't care how much time is left on the clock. The only 3 people in the league I want shooting a clutch shot when my team needs it the most are:

Kobe
Wade
Durant

And in this order.

Did Carmelo Anthony die during the night? Was Paul Pierce kidnapped by Somali pirates?

Post #12 » by **Flash3** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 3:42 pm

Next Coming wrote:
Flash3 wrote:I don't care how much time is left on the clock. The only 3 people in the league I want shooting a clutch shot when my team needs it the most are:

Kobe
Wade
Durant

And in this order.

Did Carmelo Anthony die during the night? Was Paul Pierce kidnapped by Somali pirates?

Those are the 3 players I would want. You can have Melo and Pierce. They would be in my top 5 though.

ElGee · Post #13 » by **ElGee** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:35 pm

Imadogg wrote:I'm sure you guys have seen the stat of this year's Miami Heat: In the last 10 seconds of the 4th or overtime, with the Heat tied or down 1-3pts (one FG), the Heat are shooting 1-18 this season...

We've seen some numbers and blah blah come out showing how Kobe isn't that clutch, or whatever with clutch being defined in various ways (last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, each team up or down 5... etc).

I like the 10 second clutch stat (FGM-FGA in the last 10 seconds of the 4th or OT, with the player's team tied or down 1-3) as a different look on things than we've had in the past because:
A. That means it's basically last second shot time
B. It's when your team is tied or down one shot.. which is much different and feels different than you getting a FGA with your team up 3. In this definition, if you miss, you lose or go into OT for sure basically.

I took it upon myself to go through ESPN play-by-plays of Lebron and Kobe (for obvious reasons) to see what the stats show under this definition of clutch. Since I started doing this at 4am, I only got a few seasons done, but I'll post anyways and hope to continue my research tomorrow.

So here you have it, Lebron and Kobe's "Last 10sec" Clutch stats for 08-09 (Lebron's first MVP) til present.

Lebron James
08-09: 1-4 (25%)
09-10: 1-8 (12.5%)
10-11: 1-8 (12.5%)
Total (through last 3 seasons): 3-20 (15%)

Kobe Bryant
08-09: 2-6 (33.3%)
09-10: 7-11 (63.6%)
10-11: 1-3 (33.3%)
Total (through last 3 seasons): 10-20 (50%)

Funny enough, they have the same exact amount of attempts. Not the same amount of makes though.

Nice work.

Can you add FTA, ast and 3 pt shots?
Also, can you post the list of games these are from?

zulu · Post #14 » by **zulu** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:38 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK7lIjFsGvg[/youtube]

rudy gay is pretty clutch.

Bladers · Post #15 » by **Bladers** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:46 pm

LeBron, D-Wade shot just over 20% for careers entering season on potential tying/go-ahead shots the last 10 seconds of 4th or OT.

This season, Wade and LeBron are a combined 1 of 10. Heat, as a team, are 1 of 16, according to Elias and ESPN research.

http://twitter.com/WallaceHeatNBA

So the last 3 years are not an anomaly, their whole career has the same result attached to it.
If you add in the 1 for 10 respectively, they are in the high 10's for each of their careers.

Jeff23 · Post #16 » by **Jeff23** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:48 pm

the only shot i can think of that made kobe in the last 10 seconds this year is when the Suns let him get the bucket because they had a 5 point lead or so and they didnt want to foul. So that wasnt clutch at all.

JBLJ · Post #17 » by **JBLJ** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:53 pm

Kobe's numbers are completely inflated by that once-in-a-lifetime season he had last year on last-seconds shots. I'm willing to bet anything he's a sub-25% shooter for his career in that situation otherwise.

Bladers · Post #18 » by **Bladers** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:55 pm

Jeff23 wrote:the only shot i can think of that made kobe in the last 10 seconds this year is when the Suns let him get the bucket because they had a 5 point lead or so and they didnt want to foul. So that wasnt clutch at all.

Another Butt-hurt Lebron fan denying reality because helps him sleep better at night.

Game tying shot against Blazers, this season.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MF0MYrZNuQ[/youtube]

Also btw, Kobe is 2 for 4 in shots taken with 24 seconds left, down 3 or less points.

2 of the misses coming from the three point line, one of them being an almost half court heave with 2 seconds left. So realistically he is 2 for 3.

Another way to look at it is, in less than 24 seconds left, down 2 or less or tied. Kobe is 2 for 2.

Dat Pass · Post #19 » by **Dat Pass** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:57 pm

JBLJ wrote:Kobe's numbers are completely inflated by that once-in-a-lifetime season he had last year on last-seconds shots. I'm willing to bet anything he's a sub-25% shooter for his career in that situation otherwise.

Even if that were true, which it isnt, it would still be better than LeBron's 15%:

Imadogg wrote:Lebron James
08-09: 1-4 (25%)
09-10: 1-8 (12.5%)
10-11: 1-8 (12.5%)
Total (through last 3 seasons): 3-20 (15%)

rjvir · Post #20 » by **rjvir** » Wed Mar 9, 2011 7:57 pm

JBLJ wrote:Kobe's numbers are completely inflated by that once-in-a-lifetime season he had last year on last-seconds shots. I'm willing to bet anything he's a sub-25% shooter for his career in that situation otherwise.

Yea, seriously, Lebron and Wade too. Take away all of their makes and they'd both be 0% shooters in those situations.