People were interested in these podcasts

RealGM Top 100 List #8

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,091
And1: 9,725
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#1 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:22 am

RULES:
There will be a zero tolerance, one strike policy. If ANY poster is interrupting any of the threads in a negative way, OR causing any problems they're ability to vote will be taken away.

Criteria: Take into account both peak and career play, era dominance, impact on the game of basketball, and how well their style of play and skills would transcend onto different eras. To be more exact, how great they were at playing the game of basketball.

Voting Will End In 2 Days

Please vote and nominate

Newest addition:

LeBron James
Image
# 2x NBA MVP (2009-2010)
# 5x All-NBA First Team Selection (2006-2011)
# 2x All-NBA Second Team Selection (2005-2006)
# 3x NBA All-Defensive First Team Selection (2009-2011)
# Rookie of the Year (2004)
# 7x All-Star
# 2xNBA All-Star Game MVP (2006, 2008)


Kevin Garnett
Image
# NBA Champion (2009)
# NBA MVP (2004)
# 4x All-NBA First Team Selection (2000,2003-2004, 2008)
# 3x All-NBA Second Team Selection (2001-2002, 2005)
# 2x All-NBA Third Team Selection (1999, 2007)
# NBA Defensive Player of the Year (2008)
# 9x NBA All-Defensive First Team Selection (2000-2005, 2008-2009, 2011)
# 2x NBA All-Defensive Second Team Selection (2006-2007)
# 14x All-Star
# NBA All-Star Game MVP (2004)

Oscar Robertson
Image
* NBA Champion (1971)
* NBA MVP (1964)
* NBA Rookie of the Year (1961)
* 3x NBA All-Star Game MVP (1961, 1964, 1969)
* 9× All-NBA First Team Selection (1961-1969)
* 2× All-NBA Second Team Selection (1970-1971)
* 12× All-Star (1961-1972)
* Voted to the HOF in 1980
* NBA's 50th Anniversary All-Time Team


Jerry West
Image

* NBA Champion (1972)
* NBA Finals MVP (1969)
* 14× All-Star (1961-1974)
* NBA All-Star Game MVP (1972)
* 10× All-NBA First Team Selection (1962-1967, 1970-1973)
* 2× All-NBA Second Team Selection (1968-1969)
* 4X NBA All-Defense Team Selection (1970-1973)
* 1X NBA All-Defense Team Selection (1969)
* Voted to the Hall of Fame in 1980
* NBA's 50th Anniversary All-Time Team

Karl Malone
Image

# 2x NBA MVP (1997, 1999)
# 14x NBA All-Star (1970-1977, 1979-1989)
# 2x NBA All-Star Game MVP (1989, 1993)
# 11x All-NBA First Team Selection (1988-1999)
# 2x All-NBA Second Team Selection (1986-2000)
# 1x All-NBA Third Team Selectin (2001)
# 3x NBA All-Defensive First Team Selection (1997-1999)
# 6x NBA All-Defensive Second Team Selection (1988)
# 1986 All-Rookie 1st Team
# Elected to the Basketball HOF in 2010 as a player

Moses Malone
Image
* 1x NBA Champion 1983 Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
* 3x MVP (1979, 1982, 1983)
* 12x NBA All-Star (1978-1989), 1x ABA All-Star (1975)
* 4x All-NBA First Team Selection (1979, 1982, 1983, 1985)
* 4x All-NBA Second Team Selection (1980, 1981, 1984, 1987)
* 1x NBA All-Defensive First Team Selection (1983)
* 1x NBA All-Defensive 2nd Team Selection (1979)
* 1x NBA Finals MVP (1983)
* All Rookie Team (ABA 1975)
* Basketball HOF Player (2001)


Julius Erving
Image
NBA Champion (1983)
2× ABA Champion (1974, 1976)
2× ABA Playoffs MVP (1974, 1976)
NBA Most Valuable Player (1981)
3× ABA Most Valuable Player (1974–1976)
11× NBA All-Star (1977–1987)
5× ABA All-Star (1972–1976)
2× NBA All-Star Game MVP (1977, 1983)
5× All-NBA First Team (1978, 1980–1983)
2× All-NBA Second Team (1977, 1984)
4× All-ABA First Team (1973–1976)
All-ABA Second Team (1972)
ABA All-Defensive First Team (1976)
ABA All-Rookie First Team (1972)
J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award (1983)
NBA 35th Anniversary Team
ABA All-Time Team
NBA's 50th Anniversary All-Time Team

Kobe Bryant
Image
5× NBA Champion (2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010)
2× NBA Finals MVP (2009–2010)
NBA Most Valuable Player (2008)
13× NBA All-Star (1998, 2000–2011)
2× NBA scoring champion (2006–2007)
9× All-NBA First Team (2002–2004, 2006–2011)
2× All-NBA Second Team (2000–2001)
2× All-NBA Third Team (1999, 2005)
9× All-Defensive First Team (2000, 2003–2004, 2006–2011)
2× All-Defensive Second Team (2001–2002)
NBA All-Rookie Second Team (1997)
4× NBA All-Star Game MVP (2002, 2007, 2009, 2011)

Hakeem Olajuwon
Image
* 2x NBA Champion (1994, 1995)
* 1x NBA MVP (1994)
* 12x All-Star (1985-1990, 1992-1997)
* 2x Finals MVP (1994-1995)
* 2x NBA Defensive Player of the Year (1993-1994)
* 6x All-NBA First Team Selection (1987-1989, 1993-1994, 1997)
* 3x All-NBA Second Team Selection (1986, 1990, 1996)
* 3x All-NBA Third Team Selection (1991, 1995, 1999)
* 5x NBA All-Defensive First Team Selection (1987-1988, 1990, 1993-1994)
* 4x NBA All-Defensive Second Team Selection (1985, 1991, 1996-1997)
* 1985 NBA All-Rookie Team
* NBA's 50th Anniversary All-Time Team

Tim Duncan
Image
4× NBA Champion (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007)
3× NBA Finals MVP (1999, 2003, 2005)
2× NBA Most Valuable Player (2002–2003)
NBA Rookie of the Year (1998)
13× NBA All-Star (1998, 2000–2011)
9× All-NBA First Team (1998–2005, 2007)
3× All-NBA Second Team (2006, 2008–2009)
All-NBA Third Team (2010)
8× All-Defensive First Team (1999–2003, 2005, 2007–2008)
5× All-Defensive Second Team (1998, 2004, 2006, 2009–2010)
NBA All-Rookie First Team (1998)
NBA All-Star Game MVP (2000)
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
ronnymac2
RealGM
Posts: 11,003
And1: 5,070
Joined: Apr 11, 2008
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#2 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:26 am

Hold the Android/iPhone!
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,493
And1: 16,314
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#3 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:45 am

Vote Tim Duncan

Really between him and Hakeem here. Always felt Duncan did more to make his teammates better and had a greater impact on the Spurs "culture", which IMO is GOAT caliber. Teams take after their leader and you have to credit Duncan some for the Spurs being that fundamentally orientated. I feel in this near tie he deserves the benefit of the doubt for the Spurs consistently staying great while the Rockets dipped in the middle of Hakeeem's career.

Hakeem's biggest argument is his insane playoff runs in 94/95. I feel like Hakeem's role was to shoot and score more while Duncan's was to take much less FGA with Parker and Manu's help. Both played their parts exactly as you'd ask them to do, though it is true, Hakeem's part was likely a higher degree of difficulty. Overall I'd give Hakeem more credit for 94 and 95 than any of Duncan's 2 years, but Duncan more credit for the rest of their careers due to the beforementioned team osmosis factor

Nominate George Mikan. Went with him last time. The Barkley, Dirk, Pettit, Isiah, etc. tier seems a lower than Oscar and KG and whatnot. I think it's a good place to give Mikan his bone
Liberate The Zoomers
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,091
And1: 9,725
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:50 am

Well, now we get down to Duncan v. Hakeem with Kobe on the perimeter. I rank Duncan over Hakeem because of his consistency (Hakeem was always a terrific player but Duncan is even more consistently the best or at worst second/third best in the league) and because of his leadership (Hakeem had that great 2 year stretch but he also had a stretch earlier in his career where he whined a lot and didn't seem to have the team goals in mind as much).

This is very close and Hakeem is outstanding in pretty much every way. He will be 9th or 10th for me most likely, but Duncan is the man here.

Duncan v. Kobe is similar in nature as a comparisom. Kobe is a wonderful basketball player but not as consistent and has a lot more off court baggage. However, Kobe has even more rings than Duncan which is a factor his way.

Again, great players but I go for Duncan.

Nomination -- George Mikan over David Robinson (might vote it the other way but Mikan has more potential to go higher as well as the potential to go much lower), Bob Pettit (my next choice at PF), Pippen, Wade/Drexler, or Frazier who are my other potential nominees by position.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
Wavy Q
RealGM
Posts: 24,317
And1: 2,390
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
Location: Pull Up
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#5 » by Wavy Q » Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:55 am

Vote: Duncan

Nominate: Bob Pettit
User avatar
LikeABosh
RealGM
Posts: 19,076
And1: 8,817
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
     

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#6 » by LikeABosh » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:06 am

Vote: Tim Duncan

The club for players with 3 Finals MVP is very small. And Duncan just happens to be apart of that club and the only one left on this list. Hakeem is great, but Duncan's leadership qualities and his accomplishments outweigh Hakeem's .

"Good, better, best. Never let it rest. Until your good is better and your better is best."
ThaRegul8r
Head Coach
Posts: 6,448
And1: 3,035
Joined: Jan 12, 2006
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#7 » by ThaRegul8r » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:09 am

Same vote as last time, Duncan.

Both players were among my favorites, so it's not like I'm trying to prop my favorite over another player.

penbeast0 wrote:Well, now we get down to Duncan v. Hakeem with Kobe on the perimeter. I rank Duncan over Hakeem because of his consistency (Hakeem was always a terrific player but Duncan is even more consistently the best or at worst second/third best in the league) and because of his leadership (Hakeem had that great 2 year stretch but he also had a stretch earlier in his career where he whined a lot and didn't seem to have the team goals in mind as much).


People refer to the 1986 Western Conference Finals against the Lakers, but I don't hear people talk about Game 5:

“Sampson, who finished with 29 points and 5 rebounds, was named the game’s most valuable player. He was forced to pick up the slack in the last five minutes of the game after the other half of Houston’s Twin Tower tandem, Akeem Olajuwon, tangled with L.A.’s Mitch Kupchak. Olajuwon threw three or four quick punches, knocking Kupchak down before he was restrained by referee Jess Kersey and the Lakers’ Maurice Lucas” (The Montreal Gazette, May 22, 1986).

“Akeem Olajuwon, an immensely talented center in only his second pro season, had become the leader as the Rockets defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in three of their first four games. Yet, Olajuwon was in the dressing room, ejected after a fracas with Mitch Kupchak, when the fifth game of the Western Conference finals was decided” (The Palm Beach Post, May 24, 1986).


Can anyone envision Duncan getting into a fight with an opposing player when his team is attempting to close out the defending NBA champions? Getting ejected and forcing his team to have to win the game without him?

That's one of the reasons why Duncan rates ahead for me. I was actually going to quote another post, but I see it no longer exists, which means I'll have to copy and paste from my notes, but I don't know how to replicate the table.

nate33 wrote:They played during different era's when pace and defensive styles were different. To compare their numbers, one must adjust for pace, minutes, and league play. Here are the pace-adjusted per-40 numbers for the best 4 seasons. Rather than provide TS%, I'm provide the difference in TS% between the player and the league average for that season. I'll call it dTS% (delta TS)

Code:
duncan,ti PTS REB AST STL BLK TO eFG% dTS% PER
2004-05 25.2 13.7 3.4 0.8 3.3 2.4 .498 +1.1% 27.0
2003-04 24.9 13.9 3.4 1.0 3.0 3.0 .502 +0.5% 26.8
2002-03 24.0 13.3 4.0 0.7 3.0 3.2 .515 +4.8% 26.6
2001-02 25.5 12.7 3.7 0.7 2.5 3.2 .508 +5.6% 26.9

olajuwon, PTS REB AST STL BLK TO eFG% dTS% PER
1995-96 27.3 11.0 3.6 1.6 2.9 3.5 .515 -1.6% 25.5
1994-95 27.3 10.5 3.5 1.8 3.3 3.2 .517 +2.0% 26.1
1993-94 25.6 11.2 3.4 1.5 3.5 3.2 .530 +2.2% 25.1
1992-93 25.1 12.7 3.5 1.8 4.0 3.1 .525 +3.7% 27.0

As you can see, once one adjusts for pace and style of play, Duncan's numbers match up favorably to Hakeem's. Indeed, Duncan has a slightly higher PER and a higher dTS%. Duncan was also a significantly better rebounder while being roughly equal in points, assists, blocks and turnovers. The only category where Hakeem has a notable advantage is steals.

Hakeem was a marvelous player, but I think history is being a bit too kind to him. He had two incredible playoff runs in 94 and 95, but other than that, his success was somewhat limited. He only made the Conference Finals or better two other times in his entire 18-year career. Duncan has 4 titles plus another Conference Finals appearance in just 10 years.


I've noticed people say that Duncan didn't have the "pizzazz" or "wow factor" Hakeem did, which is completely subjective and has nothing to do with the bottom line.
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters


Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
ElGee
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,041
And1: 1,206
Joined: Mar 08, 2010
Contact:

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#8 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:16 am

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon
Nominate: Charles Barkley
Check out and discuss my book, now on Kindle! http://www.backpicks.com/thinking-basketball/
User avatar
Snakebites
Forum Mod - Pistons
Forum Mod - Pistons
Posts: 50,728
And1: 17,879
Joined: Jul 14, 2002
Location: Looking not-so-happily deranged
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#9 » by Snakebites » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:34 am

As promised, I now edit my post. After much consideration, I have decided to vote for Hakeem Olajuwon.

I would like to submit my standing nomination of David Robinson. He was among the best defenders of his decade and averaged 30 ppg at his peak. He was a nightmare on both ends of the floor and anchored 60 win teams without another all star player on the team. I still see absolutely no reason why KG should be ranked this much higher than him (I frankly still have Robinson over KG quite handily on my all time list) and think his career resume, even including the playoffs, speaks for itself.

Karl Malone was nominated in spite of a relative drop in playoff performance, and even KG couldn't find his way out of the first round in any but one (maybe two?) years during the peak of his career.
User avatar
fatal9
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,341
And1: 548
Joined: Sep 13, 2009

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#10 » by fatal9 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:35 am

Vote: Hakeem
Nomination: Barkley
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,859
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#11 » by drza » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:40 am

This thread gives me a dilemma. Despite perhaps being the one that tilted the last vote towards Shaq, it would have been easier for me if Duncan would have earned the #7 slot during the conversation that I almost missed in entirety. Because that way, I wouldn't have had to wrestle with this:

1) I have always thought that Duncan and Olajuwon was a close comp, and that Duncan (who often was rated behind Hakeem) might deserve to be rated higher. But that it was awfully close, and could go either way

2) I have always believed that while Duncan was better early, KG eventually surpassed him and ended up being the slightly better player

3) My vote for the last few rounds was based off of my post in #5 (centered around Shaq vs Bird vs Duncan), which was somewhat hurried and didn't include Hakeem (probably should have) nor KG (couldn't, because he wasn't in the pool at the time)

My delimma, based on these 3 points, is that based on both my previous posts in these threads and the reality that KG isn't going to be voed in here, I should vote Duncan. But, in my heart I'm not sure I think he was really the best of this group. Ties me up a bit.

So, at the moment not sure which way I'm going to vote. Looking forward to hopefully (computer access-willing) seeing and participating in a good Duncan vs Hakeem debate, and I'll decide my vote later. I will say that at the moment I lean towards nominating David Robinson. Overall, I don't think there was a whole lot to separate Hakeem, KG, Duncan and Robinson as players. Three of them are currenly in the voting pool, so I think it's about time that Robinson joins them. But I'll make the nomination official when I do my actual vote.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
Vinsanity420
Rookie
Posts: 1,132
And1: 14
Joined: Jun 18, 2010

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#12 » by Vinsanity420 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:40 am

Vote: Hakeem
Nominate: Barkley
Laimbeer wrote:Rule for life - if a player comparison was ridiculous 24 hours ago, it's probably still ridiculous.


Genius.
User avatar
Vinsanity420
Rookie
Posts: 1,132
And1: 14
Joined: Jun 18, 2010

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#13 » by Vinsanity420 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:52 am

ThaRegul8r wrote:
I've noticed people say that Duncan didn't have the "pizzazz" or "wow factor" Hakeem did, which is completely subjective and has nothing to do with the bottom line.


While Hakeem had a higher "wow" factor, he was pretty clearly just as fundamentally sound as Duncan. I don't get all this Duncan love - Hakeem was pretty clearly better as a basketball player. Again, what did Duncan do better than Hakeem?
Laimbeer wrote:Rule for life - if a player comparison was ridiculous 24 hours ago, it's probably still ridiculous.


Genius.
User avatar
An Unbiased Fan
RealGM
Posts: 11,694
And1: 5,667
Joined: Jan 16, 2009
       

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#14 » by An Unbiased Fan » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:52 am

Vote: Kobe
Nomination: Mikan

I love Hakeem as a player, but when Kenny Smith even picks Kobe over him, it's hard to argue. Kobe & Duncan's careers trump Hakeem's. So i'm still not sure how he's over either. It's not like Kobe & TD weren't great 2-way players too, and just as talented.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016
Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
therealbig3
RealGM
Posts: 29,442
And1: 16,025
Joined: Jul 31, 2010

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#15 » by therealbig3 » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:01 am

Vinsanity420 wrote:
ThaRegul8r wrote:
I've noticed people say that Duncan didn't have the "pizzazz" or "wow factor" Hakeem did, which is completely subjective and has nothing to do with the bottom line.


While Hakeem had a higher "wow" factor, he was pretty clearly just as fundamentally sound as Duncan. I don't get all this Duncan love - Hakeem was pretty clearly better as a basketball player. Again, what did Duncan do better than Hakeem?


I think Duncan passed better, was his equal defensively, and was equal or better as a scorer in all seasons outside of 93-96. Also, I think Duncan was a slightly better rebounder.

Also, imo, Duncan was a better leader and was better in terms of team chemistry (at least when compared to earlier Hakeem).

Hakeem did have a better peak as a scorer, and he was stuck with some bad teams in Houston, and this argument can go both ways, and while I personally rank Duncan higher, I'd have no problem with people taking Hakeem over him.

But I always see people saying Duncan didn't do anything better than Hakeem, and that's just not true, and it's kind of a tired argument.
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,859
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#16 » by drza » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:14 am

Snakebites wrote:I would like to submit my standing nomination of David Robinson. He was among the best defenders of his decade and averaged 30 ppg at his peak. He was a nightmare on both ends of the floor and anchored 60 win teams without another all star player on the team. I still see absolutely no reason why KG should be ranked this much higher than him (I frankly still have Robinson over KG quite handily on my all time list) and think his career resume, even including the playoffs, speaks for itself.

Karl Malone was nominated in spite of a relative drop in playoff performance, and even KG couldn't find his way out of the first round in any but one (maybe two?) years during the peak of his career.


First, you'll note from my previous post that I agree with your notion that it's time that Robinson was nominated. That said, for your second point, I think that it is Robinson's postseason performance that has held him back. And in a different way from other players that you mention. Malone has a few memorable poor performances at bad times, but for the most part he was consistently doing heavy individual lifting in the postseason even in cases where his team failed. KG was almost universally having a huge individual impact in the postseason. His teams often struggled, at times missing the postseason at all, but any reasonably objective in-depth look at Garnett's performance shows just how ridiculous of an impact KG was having even in a losing effort.

With Robinson, on the other hand, his postseason struggles were much more of an individual level. It wasn't just his team losing, it was that repeatedly HE was personally having a lower impact in the postseason. Robinson is actually one of my favorite players of the 90s and I used to vigorously protest that so much of his legacy was tainted by that one lost series against Hakeem. I still do tend to believe that, in general, but in the RPoY project last year one poster went out of his way to highlight that the Hakeem situation wasn't a one-time thing. Instead, in every postseason Robinson played between the 93/94 season and the 97/98 season he got outplayed directly by the man guarding him (either Hakeem or Malone), and in each of those seasons Robinson's team lost to teams of comparable caliber in large part because he got outplayed as an individual. I didn't love reading those threads, and I still think Robinson tends to be underrated in general around here, but the sheer consistency of it made a strong case for why Robinson's postseason failures tend to be held against him more personally.

All of that said, I still think he was good enough that it's about time that he enter the pool
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
User avatar
Snakebites
Forum Mod - Pistons
Forum Mod - Pistons
Posts: 50,728
And1: 17,879
Joined: Jul 14, 2002
Location: Looking not-so-happily deranged
   

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#17 » by Snakebites » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:31 am

Before that series, "Who is better, Robinson or Olajuwon?" was considered a perfectly legitimate question.

And while I buy that Robinson's playoff failures are of a greater magnitude than those other two players (never said they weren't), I still think, particularly with KG, that playoff performance simply isn't enough of a strength over a career to overcome the offensive AND defensive edge, not to mention the ability to anchor good teams in the regular season in general, that Robinson has over Garnett.
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,859
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#18 » by drza » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:47 am

Snakebites wrote:Before that series, "Who is better, Robinson or Olajuwon?" was considered a perfectly legitimate question.

And while I buy that Robinson's playoff failures are of a greater magnitude than those other two players (never said they weren't), I still think, particularly with KG, that playoff performance simply isn't enough of a strength over a career to overcome the offensive AND defensive edge, not to mention the ability to anchor good teams in the regular season in general, that Robinson has over Garnett.


Re: Robinson vs Hakeem. I still think it's a perfectly legitimate question. That's why I think it's time that Robinson be brought into the debate for this project. Robinson was outstanding against Hakeem over the course of their careers, absenting that one series. And if that one series were all that there was as counter-evidence, I might still lean towards Robinson over Hakeem despite that one-series thrashing. But this is where the RPoY threads from last year really gave me a different perspective on things. That it wasn't just a 1-time thing where Robinson came up short to an Hakeem going nova, but that he repeatedly came up short in similar situations. Which raises the question of whether it was a systemic failure in Robinson's game that was only brought forth in the crucible of the playoffs. And posters like ElGee have taken up that gauntlet, and given some credible quantification to suggest that, in fact, that might be the case. That it wasn't just a matter of luck or bad timing, but that there may in-fact have been a built-in cap on what Robinson could do as a leader in the postseason because his style of play was more conducive to the regular season than the playoffs. And if that argument holds water, THAT is what's worrisome to me. Team results are capricious and depend on a lot of uncontrollable variables. But if the individual is failing, that is more problematic.

Re: Robinson vs KG. I don't agree with your conclusions. Robinson was able to produce better scoring seasons than Garnett, but with Garnett's passiing ability and the way he was utilized on his teams I'm not at all convinced that Garnett wasn't the better offfensive player. Likewise, there's no way to conclusively compare their individual defensive impacts. But I am one that subscribes to the utility of APM data as a measure of impact, and I don't think it's a fluke that Garnett's defense breaks the APM scale over whatever time range that you care to study for the last decade and is an oulier compared to even the best defenders of his generation. My personal opinion is that Garnett was slightly better than Robinson in a close match-up, and the differences in their individual postseason performances just reiterates that.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
ElGee
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,041
And1: 1,206
Joined: Mar 08, 2010
Contact:

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#19 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:48 am

Snakebites wrote:I would like to submit my standing nomination of David Robinson. He was among the best defenders of his decade and averaged 30 ppg at his peak. He was a nightmare on both ends of the floor and anchored 60 win teams without another all star player on the team. I still see absolutely no reason why KG should be ranked this much higher than him (I frankly still have Robinson over KG quite handily on my all time list) and think his career resume, even including the playoffs, speaks for itself.

Karl Malone was nominated in spite of a relative drop in playoff performance, and even KG couldn't find his way out of the first round in any but one (maybe two?) years during the peak of his career.


That's because basketball quality isn't solely captured in a single all-in-one box metric or in TS%.

Furthermore, for the purpose of this project, stuff like "how many good seasons you have" matters. Else, Bill Walton would be in the mix right now. If you have different criteria, so be it, although in the case of KG, DR and KM I don't really understand what angle you'd take to get Robinson above the others. *shrug*

Abstractly, I'm not wild about David Robinson. My impression of him during the 90s was "that guy is really good, but not best player in the league good." I was even slightly disappointed with him during the RPOY project when I re-watched Spurs games from the 90s.

Then there is the issue that he gives you 7 elite years basically. I'll be as bold as to size up Malone vs. Robinson JUST in the 90-99 window:

1990: Malone's clearly better
1991: Much closer, I'm definitely taking Malone
1992: Malone's clearly better
1993: Coin flip
1994: Robinson's clearly better (peak year?)
1995: Coin flip
1996: Close, I'll take Malone again
1997: Malone with a top-25 peak season, Robinson doesn't play
1998: Malone's clearly better
1999: Malone's clearly (way) better

How is that even close? Then you add in Malone's early and late years and it's how you get such a disparity between them.

KG, OTOH, has a better peak by a good margin. What about year-by-year? Let's call 2000 year 1 (of relevance) for KG and compare it to Robinson starting in 1990:
1: Coin flip
2: Close, I'll take D-Rob
3: Close, I'll take KG
4: KG by a mile -- I'll take this KG season over *any* Robinson season
5: KG clearly -- peak seasons for both
6: Close, I'll take KG (still)
7: Close, I'll take D-Rob
8: KG's still a top 5-7 player (regardless of health/circumstance) and D-Rob doesn't play
9: Clearly KG
10: KG misses playoffs, but D-Rob is more like a top-10 player
11: Close, I'll take R-Rob (both down to All-Star level contributions)
12: Close, I'll take KG (AS level again)

That's basically D-Rob's career, and KG's giving you 2-3 more AS seasons. Again this isn't close.
Check out and discuss my book, now on Kindle! http://www.backpicks.com/thinking-basketball/
ElGee
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,041
And1: 1,206
Joined: Mar 08, 2010
Contact:

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#20 » by ElGee » Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:50 am

Now, I'm going to assume anyone who likes David Robinson looks at his raw box numbers, attempts to reverse engineer his team and comes away flamingly impressed. Hopefully, you at least saw him play.

First, as I've said in past threads, if you blindly rank players based on WS/48, than Robinson has seasons that are better than almost every Michael Jordan season.

Second, as I've demonstrated, Robinson was a large bottom-feeder. Many have said, "but wait, his stats against good teams are still really good." Again, he is not merely a reflection of his stats. Why?

Offensively, he's a high-post jump shooter. He's not really a great passer. You want the high post player to facilitate offense for others -- heck, if it isn't patently clear from my broken record ramblings, you want ANY offensive players to make it easier for others. Robinson was athletic, but he wilted to a little strength and his offensive numbers overstate his impact on that side of the ball IMO. As I've said, many key possessions weren't run for him at all in critical moments of the key Spurs playoff games of the 90s.

None of this is to say he was bad. Remember this is someone I think has a top-25 peak and career in NBA history, despite limited seasons. The *difference,* which I'm going to hammer home as I'm about to vote for them, is that Karl Malone and Kevin Garnett played playoff basketball much better than their box score numbers suggest.

First, defensively, I've seen little to suggest Malone's impact there changed. I assume we're all in agreement between his strength/positioning, strip move and rebounding Malone was a good, above average post defender who could pair well to create excellent defensive teams. I also don't remember Garnett's defense changing in any way, and his rebounding was spectacular at times. Robinson, as I've mentioned, had a waning impact on D in the playoffs. Is Robinson the second-best defender of the 3? Heck yes, but for some reason people seem overly obsessed with postseason play...

On offense, Garnett and Malone shouldered an *increased* load in the playoffs. Stockton often didn't show up or increase his responsibility to attack a defense, and for all the discussions about supporting cast around players, Malone was often left as the primary driver or Utah's offense. The same can be said of KG in Minnesota.

Now, what happens when a team's star is overloaded on by the defense because there are no other viable options? IMO, you get stuff like I saw the other night on a classic game from 1996 with Malone (I'll return to this in 2 threads). Malone missed a shot on a break, but because of the numbers they easily captured the board. Malone then missed again, instantly stole a pass jogging back into the backcourt and finally scored. On offense, he was 1-3, 2 pts. That's all the box sees. 33%. Add in a higher likelihood of shots against the clock (saw one of those) and the difference between 56% and 54% TS has no bearing on the outcome of the possessions.

That said, Malone and KG had their shooting decline. But, as I've said, the playmaking and pressure on the defense increased. Here are Utah's PS ORtgs. In parens is the change from their RS number, then their opp DRtg in the PS and their ORtg relative to that. The final number is Malone's TS%:

1988: 108.7 (+2.1) 107.3 (+1.4) 53.7%
1989: 105.8 (-0.8) 107.7 (-1.9) 57.4%
1990: 108.0 (-2.3) 106.2 (+1.8) 50.5%
1991: 109.9 (+1.3) 105.1 (+4.8) 53.6%
1992: 113.7 (+1.5) 105.8 (+7.9) 61.8%
1993: 102.3 (-7.3) 104.9 (-2.6) 52.8%
1994: 107.1 (-1.5) 102.6 (+4.5) 53.1%
1995: 115.9 (+1.6) 107.4 (+8.5) 55.0%
1996: 109.7 (-3.6) 103.0 (+6.7) 49.8%
1997: 110.5 (-3.1) 104.0 (+6.5) 50.1%
1998: 102.8 (-9.9) 102.7 (+0.1) 53.4%

And, during Malone's best years, his teams offense look A-OK (92, 94-98), with the exception of 1998. So, what happened in 98? Isn't that the year Utah brutalized the West? The Jazz posted a 96.1 ORtg vs. Chicago, mostly from the infamous G3 meltdown...in which Malone was the only decent Utah player. (Other Jazz were 13-59 for 22% and 32 total points.) Their ORtg was 104.5 heading into the series.

So, Malone's Jazz are posting 110 ORts against 103 defenses with him shooting 50% TS. Obviously, this isn't something that's hurting the team, and from perspective watching them, he was carrying a huge load and helping them achieve that on a team level. Sometimes, the TS% dips because of harder shot selection (dictated by defense). Sometimes, you just don't shoot quite as well. With Malone, I think it was a little of both, but he was drawing a LOT of defensive attention, and especially later in his career was a phenomenal passer.

Finally, as I've noted before, inconsistency in the playoffs when you aren't on a stacked team can actually be GOOD. Data suggest that it's better to go 2-20 3x in a series and 20-20 for 4x than go 12-20 every game...IF you're team isn't loaded. Utah wasn't. We see this pattern in Malone's deep playoff runs, and sometimes the bad games butcher his TS% (he literally has a 2-20 game).

I hope it's clear from looking at that that there was a lot more to that offense than Karl Malone's TS%. And, if you watch the games, I think you'll see Malone playing fairly well, having monstrous (if not inconsistent performances) and doing more outside of just scoring efficiency.
Check out and discuss my book, now on Kindle! http://www.backpicks.com/thinking-basketball/

Return to Player Comparisons