RealGM Top 100 #35

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RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#1 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:27 am

Criteria: Take into account both peak and career play, era dominance, impact on the game of basketball, and how well their style of play and skills would transcend onto different eras. To be more exact, how great they were at playing the game of basketball.

Voting Will End In 2 Days at 10PM EST

Please vote and nominate

Newest addition:

Dave Cowens
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Hall of Fame 1991
2x NBA Champion
MVP 1973
3x All-NBA 2nd Team
1x All-Def 1st Team
2x All-Def 2nd Team
Rookie of the Year 1971
7x All-Star


Elvin Hayes
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Hall of Fame (1990)
NBA Champion (1978)
3× All-NBA First Team Selection
3× All-NBA Second Team Selection
2x All-Defense Second Team Selections
12× All-Star


Dominique Wilkins
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Hall of Fame (2006)
1x All-NBA 1st Team
4x All-NBA 2nd Team
2x All-NBA 3rd Team
9x All-Star

Kevin McHale
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Hall of Fame 1999
3 NBA Championship Teams
1 All NBA 1st Team
3 All-Defense 1st Team
3 All-Defense 2nd Team
2 Sixth Man of the Year Awards


Tracy McGrady
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Most Improved (2001)
2x1st Team All-NBA
3x2nd Team All-NBA
2x3rd Team All-NBA
7xAll-Star

Paul Pierce
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NBA Champion 2008
2008 NBA Finals MVP
1x All-NBA 2nd Team
3x All-NBA 3rd Team
9x All-STar



Dwight Howard
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4x All-NBA 1st Team
1x All-NBA 3rd Team
3x NBA DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
3x NBA All-Defensive 1st Team
1x NBA All-Defensive 2nd Team
5x All-STar



Jason Kidd
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NBA Champion 2011
5x All-NBA 1st Team
1x All-NBA 2nd Team
4x All-Defense 1st Team
5x All-Defense 2nd Team
10x All-Star
Rookie of the Year 1995


George Gervin
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5x All-NBA 1st team
2x All-NBA 2nd team
2x All-ABA 2nd Team
12x All-Star (3 ABA, 9 NBA)
All-Star MVP (1980)
Hall of Fame (1996)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#2 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:33 am

Voting Candidates
The PGs: Kidd's scoring efficiency was terrible through most of his career but his open court playmaking and rebounding were great and his defense very good.

Among the wings, there are no top defenders although Wilkins and Gervin were unusually offense oriented. Gervin didn't pass the way all the others did but is the best scorer of the bunch and that's the main attribute for each of them. Advanced numbers support Gervin or Pierce who is surprisingly strong. Accolades indicate that contemporary observers were less impressed with Pierce and support Gervin as the most dominant. I'm not a huge fan of Gervin as a piece of a championship team (although I never thought Kobe could win twice with that Laker team either) but the RPOY project has him surprisingly strong whereas guys like TMac got their big numbers on bad teams. Nique is in here too early, he brings little but scoring and that is relatively inefficient.

REGULAR SEASON – Of the 2, Gervin is the volume scorer
Gervin 5.8reb 2.8ast 27.1pts .566ts%
Pierce 5.9reb 3.7ast 21.6pts .569ts%

PLAYOFFS – Both perform at a similar or even better rate in their playoffs (in 38-41 mpg)
Gervin 7.0reb 2.9ast 27.1pts .560ts%
Pierce 6.5reb 4.0ast 21.4pts .559ts%

ADJUSTED (pace adjusted points and efg adjusted ts%) -- Pierce really is helped by the pace adjustment but that may overstate his scoring as TrueLAFan has posted about pace adjusting lead scorers viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1114378
Gervin (league average 109.2) =24.7adj ppg (.482 league efg) .585 adj ts%
Pierce (league average 97.0) = 22.0adj ppg (.485 league efg) .584 adj ts%

ACCOLADES -- No questions contemporaries rated Gervin the highest
Gervin – 5x1st, 2x2nd All-NBA, 2x2nd All-ABA, .991 MVP Shares (2nd in 78 and 79, 3rd in 80)
Pierce – 1980 Finals MVP, 1x2nd, 3x3rd All-NBA, .040 MVP Shares (best is 7th in 09)


Dwight Howard is a damn good candidate here but with peak for several years as the best big man in NBA once Duncan slowed down. McHale is no more efficient than Howard despite playing on a team with two other great scoring bigs and a weak rebounder (also affected by playing next to Parish and Bird) and although he is more versatile, he doesn't have Howard's defensive impact; Hayes has issues with efficiency and personality; Cowens is as inefficient as Hayes with less scoring and rebounding but much better intangibles.

Gervin is the biggest star but I have questions about whether you could build a title team around him the way you can around Dwight Howard. I think Kidd almost has to be a secondary player to really contend but then he did take the Nets to the Finals twice (albeit in a weak conference). Right now I'm leaning to Dwight Howard despite the shortness of his peak because it just seems to me that there is no position in basketball, given even vaguely comparable talent, that compares to a dominant two way post player.

VOTE: Dwight Howard
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:38 am

For the nomination:

PG -- It is between the great playmaking but inefficient even for his era (especially in playoffs) Bob Cousy, and the young gun with 2 great years but only 5 1/2 years total, Chris Paul. If someone can do a comp to show me Cousy was actually reasonably efficient either individually or in terms of team offense in the period from 58-62, I'll vote for him easily, otherwise . . . Other candidates include Kevin Johnson, the surprisingly efficient Chauncey Billups, and possibly Lenny Wilkens from the 60s or the purely offensive Nate Archibald or Pete Maravich from the 70s. Paul and Archibald are superb but only for a short time and that isn't always translating into team success. Posts by therealbig3 made me look closer at KJ, he was injured almost every year but not for the playoffs. Combine that with his good scoring and playmaking and he's my PG choice.

Wings -- On the wings, there are still great scorers left . . . I like Alex English's consistency and all around play over the more spectacular but less consistent Bernard King, Mark Aquirre, or David Thompson, or the statistically most efficient Adrian Dantley. Not sure where to rank Hal Greer or Sam Jones's early 60s play and Ray Allen or Reggie Miller's may be the best offensive weapons of them all -- I am open to persuasion on this and would be willing to support Ray or Reggie instead of English for career. Defensively, I love Moncrief (and Dumars and Bobby Jones have a shot too but Moncrief was the most dominant at his peak) though the shortness of his peak (5 years then a major falloff) is a big issue. Still, we voted Wade in based on the same, and not even consecutive, peak . . .

Alex English v. Dominique Wilkins
Longevity peak (10 years with Denver, call it 8 year peak v. 11 years with ATL, call it 9 year peak) even
Scoring Volume -- peak never under 25 peaked at 29.8 v. 8 years in a fast paced balanced motion offense v. peak never under 25 peaked at 30.7 in a slow paced isolation offense featuring him -- even
Scoring Efficiency -- English consistently had a shooting efficiency about 30pts higher -- ENGLISH
Playmaking -- English was a more willing passer with better assist/turnover rates -- ENGLISH
Rebounding -- English started out even or better but slipped while Nique stayed strong -- WILKINS
Defense -- Nique often didn't care, English was above average -- ENGLISH
Intangibles -- Both had reps as classy men and good team leaders -- even
Team Impact -- As offensive stars, the team ORTGs (which ignore pace) averaged 4.0 for Denver during English's 8 year peak, 8.67 for Atlanta during NIque's 9 year peak -- ENGLISH
Accolades -- Contemporaries clearly favored the Human Highlight Film -- WILKINS
To me, both were classy offensive machines but the efficiency, defense and passing give it to English

Big Men -- The bigs left all have some issue with their games. Zo had health issues and was always a step behind the best like Shaq/Robinson/Duncan/etc. Willis Reed and Wes Unseld weren't as individually dominant and broke down faster too, while Neil Johnston and Mel Daniels played against inferior competition during their primes and were more limited besides. Bob McAdoo while his 5 year peak is spectacular, didn't play big man defense and his teams didn't dominate; Bob Lanier and Walt Bellamy had nice numbers but their teams weren't that much either and Detroit with Lanier sucked defensively for 9 of Lanier's 10 prime years which I consider pretty bad. Finally there is Dikembe Mutombo who was a great shot blocker and consistent player for years. Finally, Bill Walton had one great year (not that much better than Wes Unseld's MVP year) but every other year he broke down and left the Portland and San Diego teams which had built around him destroyed until he made another 1 year comeback as a top reserve. I wouldn't choose a one in eight shot at catching lightning in a bottle at the expense of a virtually guaranteed team crash the other seven over most of the above named players. Of them I lean to Reed (peak) or Unseld (homer pick).

At PF, Bobby Jones and Dennis Rodman may be the greatest pair of defensive forwards but Jones, while extremely efficient, didn't score or rebound that much while Rodman had no offense and for 1/2 his career, left his man at times to pad his rebounding stats at the team's expense. On the offensive end, Amare Stoudamire and Chris Webber just have too many issues to rank above Jones or Rodman.

Let me explain why I am voting for Sidney Moncrief here. His peak is short, only 5 full years from 82-86 and those years coincided with the peak years of both the Bird/McHale/Parish/DJ Celtics and of the Moses/Erving/Toney/Cheeks Sixers (as well as the Showtime Lakers) so he never made it past the ECF but in those peak years he led Milwaukee, a Don Nelson coached team with no consistent center, to be one of the best defensive and an above average offensive team. Individually he was a consistent 20ppg scorer with excellent passing and rebounding skills who is widely considered the greatest man-up perimeter defender to ever play winning the first two ever awarded DPOY awards in this 5 year stretch.

Milwaukee's leaguewide ratings, even in those years of great dynastic teams, were

82 Moncrief 6.7reb/4.8ast/19.8pts on .601ts% incredible for a guard before wide use of the 3pt shot
9th in offense, 1st! in defense -- Marques Johnson was the second star only scoring 16ppg, center was good offense, mediocre defensive aging Bob Lanier, the other biggest minutes were PG Quinn Buckner (excellent defender) and Brian Winters (offense only pure jump shooter)

93 Moncrief 5.8reb/3.9ast/22.5pts on .602ts% 1st DPOY award (82 was actually better defense)
10th in offense, 6th in defense -- Marques Johnson had a great year, Alton Lister replaced Bob Lanier

94 Moncrief 6.7reb/4.5ast/20.9pts on .591ts% 2nd DPOY award
12th in offense, 2nd in defense -- Lanier came back to split time with Lister and Marques's last year

95 Moncrief 5.4reb/5.2ast/21.7pts on .594ts%
6th in offense, 2nd in defense -- Terry Cummings took over for Marques as the other star, Lister split time with Randy Breuer at center, 3pt specialist Craig Hodges split time with Paul Pressey and Junion Bridgeman

96 Moncrief 4.6reb/4.9ast/20.2pts on .604ts%
4th in offense, 2nd in defense -- Breuer became the starter still splitting time, Pressey as point forward

Moncrief was an incredible two way player. In a slightly weaker era, he might have led his team to one or two championships like a Chauncey Billups or Isiah Thomas but the one year they beat the Celtics (with great performance by Sid), they then ran into the "fo fo fo" Sixer team. But he was the clearly acknowledged leader of Milwaukee teams and led them to terrific defensive performances despite average defensive big men (Cummings doesn't have a good rep but is underrated but before him the starter was journeyman Mickey Johnson though Don Nelson liked to use Marques Johnson as PF and play 3 guards more than using Johnson).

Comparing Sidney to Chris Paul since he’s the one getting the most support over their 5 year peaks. (Answer to therealbig3 claiming Paul both outscored and creates far better offense than Moncrief)

Volume – Paul averaged 19.2ppg, Moncrief averaged 21.0ppg (and in a more balanced attack) Efficiency – Paul averaged .575, Moncrief .598ts%

And Moncrief did it on a much more balanced team which means he didn’t have as many opportunities as Paul (on the other hand he didn’t face as many defenses stacked against him).

Playoffs – Moncrief made it every year in his peak, Paul only 3 out of the 5 (and only won one series so his team impact is more questionable).
Volume – Paul 21.9, Moncrief 18.8 so they did switch volumes in the postseason
Efficiency – Paul .577, Moncrief .573ts%

Moncrief does fall off in the playoffs (from facing Dennis Johnson and Maurice Cheeks every year?) but only down to Paul’s level of efficiency and not much behind him in scoring . . . and his team had more success over the 5 year peak than Paul’s, beating the Bird/McHale/Parish/DJ Celtics.

Paul does have much better assist numbers since he is a ball dominant PG rather than an off the ball SG, but are his offenses really better? Over the last 5 years, the NO offense has been the 15th ranked offense in the league with only 1 top 10 year; Milwaukee was the 8th ranked offense in Moncrief’s period (and improved after Terry Cummings and Randy Breuer replaced Marques Johnson and Bob Lanier so it probably isn’t star power). Paul doesn’t seem to have a Steve Nash type effect here.

And defensively, Moncrief, the 2 time DPOY is considerably better than pretty much any other guard although I really like Paul’s defense. I love Chris Paul, but Moncrief was the better player.


NOMINATION: Sidney Moncrief
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:41 am

I have run out of players on mysticbb's list . . . come back to us!

He is still presumably nominating Reggie Miller though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#5 » by Snakebites » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:41 am

Vote: Gervin
Nominate: Mourning

I'm not sure you can build a title team around Dwight either, even in this diluted big man era, much less an era when elite big men roamed the earth. I see the arguments either way, but my gut goes Gervin here.

Though honestly, I'm looking at Cousy and wondering whether nominating him isn't the right thing to do at this moment.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#6 » by Fencer reregistered » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:42 am

Maybe we should get serious about nominating the next batch of PGs. Kidd is probably going on the list soon -- although probably not with my support until some other guys have gone on first -- and he's the only one currently nominated.

It seems that the main candidates are from very different time frames.

Bob Cousy is from the old days, when guys can be forgiven for such missteps as not having a jump shot. He was MVP. He was an offensive leader for a bunch of title teams, and the overall leader for at least one. He was one of the most transformative players ever in on-court matters (fast break). He was one of the most transformative players ever in off-court matters (race relations, also labor relations). He simply is one of the greatest figures in basketball history.

Kevin Johnson was a very good, well-rounded player -- Paul Pierce without the longevity or ring, but perhaps some more individual accolades. He has completed his career.

Chris Paul is an outstanding, well-rounded regular-season player who hasn't achieved much longevity yet and who hasn't proved much in the postseason.

Nominate: Cousy
Vote: Once again, Pierce
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#7 » by JordansBulls » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:47 am

Vote: Dominique Wilkins
Nominate: Allen Iverson
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:48 am

Care to translate his numbers into modern equivalents? . . . quite frankly I don't have the energy but would love to have an excuse to vote for someone before my time (same goes for Paul Arizin and Neil Johnston for aging Philly Phans)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#9 » by Fencer reregistered » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:49 am

Snakebites wrote: I'm looking at Cousy and wondering whether nominating him isn't the right thing to do at this moment.


It is. Because of his impact in the early days, Cousy will be one of the 50 greatest players in basketball history until the end of time.

That's even though Rajon Rondo -- at least when focused -- is a better player than Cousy today. Cousy innovated a lot of stuff that other guys refined in the half-century since. Galileo is still one of the greatest physicists ever, notwithstanding that I knew much more physics than he ever did by the time I was 14 years old.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#10 » by ElGee » Tue Sep 6, 2011 4:08 am

vote: George Gervin
nominate: Chris Paul

How did Artis Gilmore just get voted in? He's like the 3rd "slip through the cracks" player recently. This project is craaaaazy.

Beast you were confused about my Chris Paul nomination.

Now, Chris Paul is a name I don't think has really been mentioned at all, but he's right here for me...and I'll take him right now over the other candidates...actually by a pretty comfortable little margin. Why? First, the career:

2007 AS season
2008 weak MVP level season
2009 weak MVP level season
2010 ~AS season
2011 good all-nba level season

Yes, those 5 years, especially with the peak play, vault Paul's career above almost everyone left. I can make an argument for Miller and maybe Hayes ahead...Wilkins and Kevin Johnson are right there too. Howard not far off. But what else for Paul?

Well, he's arguably got the best peak of that lot. Howard is the only one who could challenge that. Then I look at my giant draft board and I have CP3 somewhere in the early 30s...near Frazier, Morning and Howard. I like him on a lot of teams -- he's an astoundingly good ball-dominant or PnR PG. He's a nice defender too.

We like to look at ORtg when we see a ball-dominant, QB-style offensive force...When Paul joined the Hornets they had the worst offense in the league. After some slight improvements, they jumped to 5th (111.5, +4.0) in 2008.

We can look at his team's offense with him on the court at 82games:
2007 109.7 +8.7
2008 116.0 +15.4
2009 113.6 +16.4
2010 110.7 +4.1
2011 110.4 +11.6

Even though it's 08 and 09 people associate with, Paul, including his injury-laden 2010 season, has the 4th-highest APM (Dirk, James, Durant) over the last 2 years using the Rosenbaum model. He's 8th in the Engelmann 6-year run.

Henry Abbot likes to point to Paul's teams as a beacon of success in the clutch. If we're buying that, I'm assuming that's a reflection of Paul's consistency/skill that is fairly indefensible regardless of the scenario or opponent. So his PS numbers shouldn't dip.

In the 08 playoffs, New Orleans had a 113.5 ORtg with Paul (+16.7).
In the 11 playoffs, New Orleans had a 106.7 ORtg with Paul (+22.9).

Sure enough, his ORtg, WS/48 and scoring all increase in those postseasons.

I again want to note that Paul is lifting an anemic offensive squad to right around average...but an APM model would just see the giant number (+22.9) and adjust for opponents+teammates. I have to yet to see any math that accounts for the phenomenon that that is not necessarily better than what Steve Nash did in 2010, which is move Phoenix's playoff offense from 113.1 without him...to 120.4 (+7.3).


Let's revisit this longevity issue. I've got Paul and Howard right next to each other. They came into the league a year apart.

Paul's got 76 WS, is 35th in MVP shares 3 all-NBA's (5x WC POM).
Howard's got 80 WS, is 28th in MVP shares 5 all-NBA's (6x EC POM).

To summarily dismiss Paul because of longevity seems bizarre to me, just on the surface.

And it doesn't stop there. The contributions of Walton, Alonzo Mourning, Kevin Johnson, Marques Johnson, Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, David Thompson and Bernard King are all significant when compared to the rest of this field. These players are typically downgraded on past lists bc (1) Their team's lost and (2) lack of longevity...but the spirit of this project is to deviate from past list criteria.

Everyone still has to weigh peak vs. longevity. But of course, everyone has been doing this in his own way since the beginning of the project. There is no reason to change now. 3, 4 or 5 really fantastic seasons are still just that...fantastic. And they provide more value toward a championship than 7 or 8 "good" seasons. Adding an AS to a team usually helps them a little (depending on fit). Adding a top-5 player always helps them A LOT. It's a difference maker. The people I mentioned have fit that description. The more celebrated, long-term players never did (mostly).

So, make what you will of Chris Paul. But I ask that people re-evaluate these players in the context of this project.

Aren't we at a point when two MVP-dominant seasons would be better than almost everything that's left? Would you rather have peak Jordan for two seasons or Ray Allen's contributions over his career? If your answer is "well, Allen gives me 10 good chances on a good team," I will remind you that the majority of teams you add Ray Allen to will *NOT* be good teams. But, in those 2 seasons, adding Michael Jordan will likely yield 2 titles in a number of settings -- he can lift average teams to title-contender. Because of this, I'd argue it's easier to win a single championship with Jordan twice with random team-building than with Allen 10x and random team-building.

Just to quickly expand on this mathematically, so everyone understands where I'm coming from:

Using the normalization I've been using for the SIO numbers, we can give a player a rough value that he adds to a given team. I think it's fair in this example to use +7.0 SIO for Jordan and +3.0 for Allen. That means MJ takes a .500 team to ~7 SRS on average (60 wins) and Ray Ray a .500 team to ~3 SRS (49 wins). (You can judge the long-term SIO results posted in the statistical forum and see if that seems fair...)

If that's the case, adding each player to a random roster as constructed in 2011 would lead to the following SRS's:

At that rate, Jordan would bring 23 teams over a 5 SRS -- 55 wins a fairly good historical cutoff (depending on season) for title contention. Conversely, Allen would be on 8 teams over a 5 SRS.

But the higher the SRS, the higher the probability a team wins the playoff. A player like Allen isn't usually going to lift a contender to dominant status. An MVP-level player will. Jordan has 15 teams shifted to over 7 SRS in that example...to 0 for Allen.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#11 » by ronnymac2 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 5:28 am

Ahh, **** me. Yesterday got away from me and I missed the vote. Won't happen this time...

Vote: Tracy McGrady

Nominate: Allen Iverson


Open to changing the nomination...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#12 » by therealbig3 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 7:27 am

Vote: Pierce

Not really sure who to nominate. I'm thinking about Iverson vs Paul, and why I would take Paul. I think Paul is the better peak player...but I value longevity, and I think I've been vastly underrating Iverson's offensive impact.

I'm also wondering if I should go back to my KJ nomination and see if I get support for that.

What the heck,

Nominate: KJ
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#13 » by therealbig3 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 8:06 am

Why should Iverson go ahead of KJ, btw?

Iverson doesn't do well in any of the RAPM studies that are available, and although Iverson had a positive offensive impact, so did KJ...a big one. He was also a better defender than Iverson, I think.

The defense isn't what matters though...I think KJ was the better offensive player, and that makes him the superior overall player. Iverson gets the edge in terms of longevity, but he was pretty injury-prone too.

KJ from 89-97, per 36 (599 games): 19.6 ppg, 9.9 apg, 3.3 TOpg, .590 TS% (~67 games/season)

AI from 99-08, per 36 (673 games): 24.7 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.2 TOpg, .518 TS% (~70 games/season)

Since the 99 season was only 50 games long, and AI played 48 games, I estimated that AI would have played 79 games in a full season, so I used 704 games for AI when I calculated how many games/season he played.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#14 » by Fencer reregistered » Tue Sep 6, 2011 8:15 am

Whoops. Forgot Iverson when I talked about nominating "PGs", in that I've thought PGs and combo guards go together well in the analysis, all the way back to Oscar and Logo.

Looks like we're going to rehash the Gervin/Pierce/TMac and Pierce/Kidd discussions from nomination time. Probably the effect will be the same, with bigs (Gilmore and Howard) getting ahead of more deserving wings based on plurality vote. Oh well; no voting system is perfect, and I doubt our specific choice of approach is getting guys onto the list more than a few spots away from where they otherwise might be.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#15 » by drza » Tue Sep 6, 2011 2:29 pm

ElGee wrote:No one has still addressed my issues with early RAPM. Ridge regression is a squeezing technique -- it will lump the population closer together. The math being used in the early single-year RAPM, ignoring that the one-year sample size is always an issue, seems to be squeezing the whole league into a tight pocket.

Am I to believe that in the middle of the decade, individual impact suddenly became much better according to Englemann? The 2002 leader was Shaq at +3.4 (peak Shaq, fwiw), Doug Christie (3.2, eek) and peak Duncan (3.0). In 2006, they would be ~ the 35th best players in the league. No one finds a problem with this??


In addition to our brief discussion on this yesterday, I've been going back through Englemann's numbers this morning, and I think the big issue in your example above is that it's from 2002. Englemann says on the site that his 2002 calculation is only from less than 1/3 of the season, making what is already a small sample size into microscopic. While the full-year RAPMs should be taken with a grain of salt, a 1/3 year should be taken with a boulder.

To show this, I went through and calculated the mean and standard deviation for his each single-season RAPM, and 2002 sticks out like a sore thumb with by-far the lowest standard deviation (i.e. the most compression). Which of course goes back to how we aren't supposed to compare the raw RAPM values from one year to the next. But I've noticed that if, instead of looking at the raw RAPM value you actually look at how far away the leader is from the average you can get a better sense for year-to-year comparisons.

For example, check out the leaders. In 2002 Shaq's RAPM was 3.4, in 2003 KG's was 5.4, and in 2006 Duncan's was 7.1. But in terms of how far they are from league average, all are about the same (Shaq 3.4 standard deviations above mean, KG 3.8 above mean, and Duncan 3.5 above mean). I think the latter is likely a more reasonable, if not mathematically rigorous, way of making comparisons across years using RAPM.

Also, side note, but as I've looked through all of this data...I think it may just be time to start talking more about Manu Ginobili. As I was charting RAPM, I notice that the year leaders look like this:

2002 Shaq
2003 KG
2004 KG
2005 KG
2006 Duncan
2007 Manu
2008 Manu

2009 LeBron
2010 LeBron
2011 Dirk

APM is just one way to look at things, of course, but I have a sneaky suspicion that if you go through the box score stats you'll also find Manu suspiciously near the top of his generation. He's been an amazing player for a lot of years now, and because of his perceived lesser role and the brilliance of Duncan shadowing him I don't think that we've really realized it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#16 » by drza » Tue Sep 6, 2011 2:44 pm

Vote: Jason Kidd

I'm still working on my nominee. Mourning and Iverson are the two front runners, but I'm listening to the case for others as well. And if time permits I think I'll be constructing a case for Mr. Ginobili.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:28 pm

Again, at the risk of pimpin my man Sidney, you have to show Manu had a better game since he doesn't have the longevity advantage of a Reggie Miller/Alex English type (and played less minutes per game besides).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#18 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:35 pm

[quote="ElGee"]vote: George Gervin
nominate: Chris Paul

How did Artis Gilmore just get voted in? He's like the 3rd "slip through the cracks" player recently. This project is craaaaazy.

Beast you were confused about my Chris Paul nomination.

Code: Select all

[quote]Now, Chris Paul is a name I don't think has really been mentioned at all, but he's right here for me...and I'll take him right now over the other candidates...actually by a pretty comfortable little margin. Why? First, the career:

2007 AS season
2008 weak MVP level season
2009 weak MVP level season
2010 ~AS season
2011 good all-nba level season

Yes, those 5 years, especially with the peak play, vault Paul's career above almost everyone left. I can make an argument for Miller and maybe Hayes ahead...Wilkins and Kevin Johnson are right there too. Howard not far off. But what else for Paul?

Well, he's arguably got the best peak of that lot. Howard is the only one who could challenge that. Then I look at my giant draft board and I have CP3 somewhere in the early 30s...near Frazier, Morning and Howard. I like him on a lot of teams -- he's an astoundingly good ball-dominant or PnR PG. He's a nice defender too.

We like to look at ORtg when we see a ball-dominant, QB-style offensive force...When Paul joined the Hornets they had the worst offense in the league. After some slight improvements, they jumped to 5th (111.5, +4.0) in 2008.

We can look at his team's offense with him on the court at 82games:
2007 109.7 +8.7
2008 116.0 +15.4
2009 113.6 +16.4
2010 110.7 +4.1
2011 110.4 +11.6

Even though it's 08 and 09 people associate with, Paul, including his injury-laden 2010 season, has the 4th-highest APM (Dirk, James, Durant) over the last 2 years using the Rosenbaum model. He's 8th in the Engelmann 6-year run.

Henry Abbot likes to point to Paul's teams as a beacon of success in the clutch. If we're buying that, I'm assuming that's a reflection of Paul's consistency/skill that is fairly indefensible regardless of the scenario or opponent. So his PS numbers shouldn't dip.

In the 08 playoffs, New Orleans had a 113.5 ORtg with Paul (+16.7).
In the 11 playoffs, New Orleans had a 106.7 ORtg with Paul (+22.9).

Sure enough, his ORtg, WS/48 and scoring all increase in those postseasons.

I again want to note that Paul is lifting an anemic offensive squad to right around average...but an APM model would just see the giant number (+22.9) and adjust for opponents+teammates. I have to yet to see any math that accounts for the phenomenon that that is not necessarily better than what Steve Nash did in 2010, which is move Phoenix's playoff offense from 113.1 without him...to 120.4 (+7.3).[/quote]

[quote]Let's revisit this longevity issue. I've got Paul and Howard right next to each other. They came into the league a year apart.

Paul's got 76 WS, is 35th in MVP shares 3 all-NBA's (5x WC POM).
Howard's got 80 WS, is 28th in MVP shares 5 all-NBA's (6x EC POM).

To summarily dismiss Paul because of longevity seems bizarre to me, just on the surface.

And it doesn't stop there. The contributions of Walton, Alonzo Mourning, Kevin Johnson, Marques Johnson, Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, David Thompson and Bernard King are all significant when compared to the rest of this field. These players are typically downgraded on past lists bc (1) Their team's lost and (2) lack of longevity...but the spirit of this project is to deviate from past list criteria.

Everyone still has to weigh peak vs. longevity. But of course, everyone has been doing this in his own way since the beginning of the project. There is no reason to change now. 3, 4 or 5 really fantastic seasons are still just that...fantastic. And they provide more value toward a championship than 7 or 8 "good" seasons. Adding an AS to a team usually helps them a little (depending on fit). Adding a top-5 player always helps them A LOT. It's a difference maker. The people I mentioned have fit that description. The more celebrated, long-term players never did (mostly).

So, make what you will of Chris Paul. But I ask that people re-evaluate these players in the context of this project.

Aren't we at a point when two MVP-dominant seasons would be better than almost everything that's left? Would you rather have peak Jordan for two seasons or Ray Allen's contributions over his career? If your answer is "well, Allen gives me 10 good chances on a good team," I will remind you that the majority of teams you add Ray Allen to will *NOT* be good teams. But, in those 2 seasons, adding Michael Jordan will likely yield 2 titles in a number of settings -- he can lift average teams to title-contender. Because of this, I'd argue it's easier to win a single championship with Jordan twice with random team-building than with Allen 10x and random team-building.[/quote]
[quote]Just to quickly expand on this mathematically, so everyone understands where I'm coming from:

Using the normalization I've been using for the SIO numbers, we can give a player a rough value that he adds to a given team. I think it's fair in this example to use +7.0 SIO for Jordan and +3.0 for Allen. That means MJ takes a .500 team to ~7 SRS on average (60 wins) and Ray Ray a .500 team to ~3 SRS (49 wins). (You can judge the long-term SIO results posted in the statistical forum and see if that seems fair...)

If that's the case, adding each player to a random roster as constructed in 2011 would lead to the following SRS's:

At that rate, [b]Jordan would bring 23 teams over a 5 SRS[/b] -- 55 wins a fairly good historical cutoff (depending on season) for title contention. Conversely, [b]Allen would be on 8 teams over a 5 SRS[/b].

But the higher the SRS, the higher the probability a team wins the playoff. A player like Allen isn't usually going to lift a contender to dominant status. An MVP-level player will. [b]Jordan has 15 teams shifted to over 7 SRS in that example...to 0 for Allen.[/b][/quote][/quote]


I'm not confused, I just don't see Paul having that kind of Steve Nash effect on offenses other than in 2008 and see Moncrief as a player who has played the same amount of peak years but with equivalent offense (better scorer and rebounder, not in Paul's league as an assist man though good for a 2 guard) while Sid has a large edge defensively. I don't have a huge problem with short peak guys as long as they have at least a decent 5 year sample to judge them from although at least 8 is preferably (or I wouldn't suport Sid and Dwight Howard) but I just don't see Paul as having that kind of impact, again except maybe for 2008.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#19 » by Fencer reregistered » Tue Sep 6, 2011 3:55 pm

I've been looking at Cousy's stats, and there's nothing wrong with his FG% compared to those of the other assist leaders from the mid-1950s. Where he falls short of some guys is in the ratio of FTA/FGA. Presumably he was attacking the rim a little less personally because he was dishing the ball more often.

According to Basketball Reference, he was also blowing away his fellow assist leaders in PER, with the sole exception of Maurice Stokes, a F-C with a 3-year career.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #35 

Post#20 » by lorak » Tue Sep 6, 2011 4:16 pm

vote: Gervin
nominate: Iverson

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